Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[tercet]

His 7bb/9 is above his norm......

 

Most bb/9 in the minors go up in the majors the first few seasons/years etc.

[Caper]

More then likely yes he will get destroyed this season.

 

He might make very big improvements, and cut his walks down to 3bb/9 this season for example. But the odds are against that happening given the history of baseball are very small.

 

I just think there are so many variables and his case is quite unique that it wouldn't surprise me if he stuck around all year and pitched ok... including a few gems. Or it would also not surprise if he had to go back to A ball because he can't throw a strike.

 

As far as not striking anybody out... that's one area I certainly expect him to improve significantly.

 

I guess I can't understand why you would be so certain of his looming failure.

[Jimcanuck]

He might improve and make baby steps improvements. But you probably don't go from 7bb/9 to 3bb/9 during a season.

 

FFS man.

 

If Sanchez goes to 3 BB/9, he's the Jays No 1 starter. Let's just be satisfied if he provides reasonable results as a 22 yr old 5th starter.

 

Give your head a shake.

[King]

FFS man.

 

If Sanchez goes to 3 BB/9, he's the Jays No 1 starter. Let's just be satisfied if he provides reasonable results as a 22 yr old 5th starter.

 

Give your head a shake.

 

Did you even read what he said? "But you probably don't go from 7bb/9 to 3bb/9 during a season."

[tercet]

I just think there are so many variables and his case is quite unique that it wouldn't surprise me if he stuck around all year and pitched ok... including a few gems. Or it would also not surprise if he had to go back to A ball because he can't throw a strike.

 

As far as not striking anybody out... that's one area I certainly expect him to improve significantly.

 

I guess I can't understand why you would be so certain of his looming failure.

 

He never really struck out many pitchers in the minors, and so far in the majors he isn't getting many swinging strikes. So far he has a career SwStr lower then Mark Buerhle(who doesn't strikeout many batters).

Yea it might improve, but the odds of his SwStr, and Strikeout rate jumping to 10%SwStr, and 9 k/9 this year is pretty much 0.

[GD]

Bob Feller

 

Different era, when you look at FIP- he was above average or close to average / amazing in most of his seasons (52,53,56 were bad ones, rest good)

[Jimcanuck]

Did you even read what he said? "But you probably don't go from 7bb/9 to 3bb/9 during a season."

 

yes i certainly did...... the implication being that is what Sanchez needs to do, which is ridiculous

[GD]

yes i certainly did...... the implication being that is what Sanchez needs to do, which is ridiculous

 

why is it a ridiculous statement to suggest Sanchez needs to improve his 7 BB/9 significantly

[King]

yes i certainly did...... the implication being that is what Sanchez needs to do, which is ridiculous

 

lol

[Jimcanuck]

why is it a ridiculous statement to suggest Sanchez needs to improve his 7 BB/9 significantly

 

to 3 BB/9? as a 22 yr old?

 

isn't this the reality check thread

[GD]

to 3 BB/9? as a 22 yr old?

 

isn't this the reality check thread

 

League average is 2.81.

 

His is 7.

 

k

[Captain Adama]

to 3 BB/9? as a 22 yr old?

 

isn't this the reality check thread

 

The reality was clearly stated that he would suck this year. If he had the peripherals that were projected from him.

[Deadpool]

Can we agree that 2 of the BBs tonight were total ********? I know that's a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things, but those were definitely total, unadulterated, weapons grade ********...

[Jimcanuck]

League average is 2.81.

 

His is 7.

 

k

 

and the average for 21-23 yr old starters so far this year is ~4.5

 

lack of control goes with the territory for most young pitchers

[Captain Adama]

and the average for 21-23 yr old starters so far this year is ~4.5

 

lack of control goes with the territory for most young pitchers

 

"His is 7."

[Caper]

Oh. Someone has to post Keith laws tweet on Sanchez's start. I computer illiterate.

[Jimcanuck]

"His is 7."

 

what does it need to be before it is ok for a 22 yr old 5th starter? tercet seems to think 3 BB/9

[Captain Adama]

what does it need to be before it is ok? tercet seems to think 3 BB/9

 

Well for starters how about striking guys out more than you walk them?

 

And 3-3.5 is a good benchmark, yeah.

 

Like, even Kyle Drabek had a career walk rate of 5.72. Not saying Sanchez will turn out like Drabek, but if his walk rate doesn't go down.

 

Ugh.

[bronson44]

Oh. Someone has to post Keith laws tweet on Sanchez's start. I computer illiterate.

 

This?

[Caper]

Thanks Bronson.. I thought it was pretty funny.

[Deadpool]

Oh. Someone has to post Keith laws tweet on Sanchez's start. I computer illiterate.

 

 

Apparently I was beaten to the punch!

Edited May 9, 2015 by Deadpool
Late and clearly dumn

[King]

Oh. Someone has to post Keith laws tweet on Sanchez's start. I computer illiterate.

 

[Deadpool]

Check out this 4 pitch walk, bro!

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/numlocation.php-pitchSel=592717&game=gid_2015_05_08_bosmlb_tormlb_1&batterX=21&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&cache=1.gif

[Macsattack]

I've been checking out the commentary on here since spring training and the hate and doom and gloom on Sanchez is completely unwarranted. Most young power pitchers have some control issues and with plus stuff it often becomes "effectively wild" Look back on the Marlins stable of young right handers from the late 90's early 2000's in particular Ryan Dempster and AJ Burnett very similar stats to Sanchez in their early 20's even Josh Beckett and Brad Penny from that group similar early results. Advanced stats are worth only so much guys that throw a heavy fastball with movement 95-96 are hard to hit and unless Sanchez loses some velocity he's a tough matchup for any hitter. Having a guy at the backend of our starting rotation is the least of the jays worries.

[Captain Adama]

I've been checking out the commentary on here since spring training and the hate and doom and gloom on Sanchez is completely unwarranted. Most young power pitchers have some control issues and with plus stuff it often becomes "effectively wild" Look back on the Marlins stable of young right handers from the late 90's early 2000's in particular Ryan Dempster and AJ Burnett very similar stats to Sanchez in their early 20's even Josh Beckett and Brad Penny from that group similar early results. Advanced stats are worth only so much guys that throw a heavy fastball with movement 95-96 are hard to hit and unless Sanchez loses some velocity he's a tough matchup for any hitter. Having a guy at the backend of our starting rotation is the least of the jays worries.

 

AJ. Burnett had an average walk rate of 4.70/9 before 2004.

Ryan Dempster about 5.12/9 and he was god awful during that stretch.

 

Aside from 2001, (24 IP) Beckett never had a walk rate above 4

Penny similarly had only 2000 as a year with at least 100 IP and was mediocre.

 

This thread is nothing about saying that Sanchez will suck in the future, but that he's not ready and don't expect much from him this year. Unfortunately if he keeps going like this, his ERA will balloon.

[Macsattack]

AJ. Burnett had an average walk rate of 4.70/9 before 2004.

Ryan Dempster about 5.12/9 and he was god awful during that stretch.

 

Aside from 2001, (24 IP) Beckett never had a walk rate above 4

Penny similarly had only 2000 as a year with at least 100 IP and was mediocre.

 

This thread is nothing about saying that Sanchez will suck in the future, but that he's not ready and don't expect much from him this year. Unfortunately if he keeps going like this, his ERA will balloon.

 

SirBJay in Statistics there's something called sample size before hitting the panic button lets give the kid 100 innings and things will even out. Even if the kid rolls into September with a 4.50 ERA as a 5th starter in the AL east should be considered a major win for the Jays #perspective

[tercet]

SirBJay in Statistics there's something called sample size before hitting the panic button lets give the kid 100 innings and things will even out. Even if the kid rolls into September with a 4.50 ERA as a 5th starter in the AL east should be considered a major win for the Jays #perspective

 

He has a sample size of being terrible, maybe he be good in 16/17/18. But very high chance he will be terrible this year.

[Macsattack]

we'll just have to let it play out and see. I'm usually a follow WHIP for starters and agree anything over 1.40 doesn't pan out. Also note he has faced Baltimore and Boston each twice this year close together and both times the second start was better than the first which is something that excites me with starting pitching.

[Captain Adama]

SirBJay in Statistics there's something called sample size before hitting the panic button lets give the kid 100 innings and things will even out. Even if the kid rolls into September with a 4.50 ERA as a 5th starter in the AL east should be considered a major win for the Jays #perspective

 

That's a good point, my basis for my reasoning comes from 350 IP 4.9 BB/9 from the minors. How's that for sample size?

[Captain Adama]

we'll just have to let it play out and see. I'm usually a follow WHIP for starters and agree anything over 1.40 doesn't pan out. Also note he has faced Baltimore and Boston each twice this year close together and both times the second start was better than the first which is something that excites me with starting pitching.

 

Since you seem so inclined to stats, I'd warn you against using WHIP as an indicator for success.