Predict AA's Next Move

[John_Havok]

The best part is that even if injuries hit the lineup, we can now withstand the loss of one of our big bats. Hopefully that doesn't happen, but it's definitely an added benefit. We have high end depth in the lineup and quality but unspectacular depth in the rotation. We just need to fill out the remaining spots with adequate players, anything above that is just an added benefit at this point IMO.

 

The top end is nice, but there's a lot of chaffe to get rid of too, like Tolleson, Valencia, Hague, Thole etc.

 

Right now, it appears a Dirks/Mayberry platoon is the LF plan with Pillar as the odd man out an injury. It would be my guess that they want Travis to be the 2B but we'll likely see Izturis start the year there with Goins on the bench and Travis in AAA, OR Travis starting with Izturis on the bench and Goins in AAA. Smoak DHing with Navarro as the backup catcher.

 

My guess is that they Jays would want the following to happen:

 

C - Martin

1b - Edwin

2b - Travis

SS - Reyes

3b - Donaldson

LF - Dirks/Mayberry Jr

CF - Pompey

RF - Bautista

DH - Smoak

 

Bench:

Navarro

Mayberry Jr/Dirks

Izturis

Pillar/Goins

 

Just a guess on the bench there as I don't know if they would carry a 5th outfielder or another IF backup. With Pillar you'd have your CF back and pinch runner, Izturis can back up any IF position as can Goins defensively though I'd really hate to see Izzy at SS for any length of time... Tolleson is basically DFA fodder at this point IMO. Could also just use Pillar as the other half of the platoon in LF and just use Mayberry as a power-off-the-bench option.

[John_Havok]

Brett Cecil is a lights out closer.

 

I agree he could be, but the rest of pen is really short on strikeout potential don't ya think?

[jaysguy44]

Brett Cecil is a lights out closer.

 

I'd rather have him as the setup man. Honestly I can really see Sanchez becoming our closer, throws hard and has great command. I know he is still kind of unproven, but I think he would be lights out closing games

[John_Havok]

Bullpen schmullpen. Easily filled for very cheap.

 

Name your targets for cheap that are available right now that can actually reliably strike out batters when you need it. And no, I'm not trying to be obtuse or cheeky, I'm just looking at the list of FA relievers and aside from the very top end, not seeing a lot.

[John_Havok]

I think Hochever would be a savvy addition. Sure he's coming off TJ, but in a pen role he was dominant in 2013. Pretty insane strand rates but still would likely be very good.

[RealAccountant]

Hochevar is probably the only guy I'd give money too. Sign Josh Outman on the cheap too.

 

Cecil

Hochevar

Loup

Outman

Redmond

Delabar/Drabek

Hendriks

 

There's also Estrada if Happ stays.

 

That bullpen is below average, and I think that you tend to undervalue the value of a bullpen as a whole. Orioles did so well last year because of their pen, and we need one that will keep us in the game, and shut down the opposition. Neither Delabar or Drabek or Hendriks are MLB material, plus you want to take a risk of including a guy coming of TJS. That type of pen would only work if both Sanchez and Norris are turned into late inning relievers.

[Stangstag]

I'd rather have him as the setup man. Honestly I can really see Sanchez becoming our closer, throws hard and has great command. I know he is still kind of unproven, but I think he would be lights out closing games

 

Please stop

[jaysguy44]

That bullpen is below average, and I think that you tend to undervalue the value of a bullpen as a whole. Orioles did so well last year because of their pen, and we need one that will keep us in the game, and shut down the opposition. Neither Delabar or Drabek or Hendriks are MLB material, plus you want to take a risk of including a guy coming of TJS. That type of pen would only work if both Sanchez and Norris are turned into late inning relievers.

 

Who's to say Delabar doesn't have a bounce back year? I highly doubt it, but you never know. I have confidence in Cecil, Sanchez and Loup. If Delabar and Norris can do well this yr, along with Hochever. I don't think our pen is all that bad, but yes like I said we have a few pieces that we are not sure exactly what we are going to get out of them

[jaysguy44]

Please stop

 

What? Please back up your comment with something you don't agree with that was said. I'm not sure why Sanchez as our closer is such a bad idea, it's been posted around here before.

[Stangstag]

What? Please back up your comment with something you don't agree with that was said. I'm not sure why Sanchez as our closer is such a bad idea, it's been posted around here before.

 

Because Sanchez should be getting some more development as a starter in AAA. Then he can step into the rotation if someone gets injured.

[Abomination]

Who's to say Delabar doesn't have a bounce back year? I highly doubt it, but you never know. I have confidence in Cecil, Sanchez and Loup. If Delabar and Norris can do well this yr, along with Hochever. I don't think our pen is all that bad, but yes like I said we have a few pieces that we are not sure exactly what we are going to get out of them

 

You don't want to hurt Sanchez and Norris development by putting them in the pen, at least to start the year. I think Delabar probably does bounce back. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dustin come back assuming no one gives him a starting job (unlikely), although I'm not sure if it's the best thing to do or not. I think taking a chance on Axford could pay off (he's basically Delabar but with closing experience).

 

Honestly though, I think it's most likely that Happ and Navarro are traded for some nice young relief options.

[jaysguy44]

Because Sanchez should be getting some more development as a starter in AAA. Then he can step into the rotation if someone gets injured.

 

Understandable. I just can't see that happening, especially with our lack of depth in the pen right now

[burlingtonbandit]

The top end is nice, but there's a lot of chaffe to get rid of too, like Tolleson, Valencia, Hague, Thole etc.

 

Right now, it appears a Dirks/Mayberry platoon is the LF plan with Pillar as the odd man out an injury. It would be my guess that they want Travis to be the 2B but we'll likely see Izturis start the year there with Goins on the bench and Travis in AAA, OR Travis starting with Izturis on the bench and Goins in AAA. Smoak DHing with Navarro as the backup catcher.

 

My guess is that they Jays would want the following to happen:

 

C - Martin

1b - Edwin

2b - Travis

SS - Reyes

3b - Donaldson

LF - Dirks/Mayberry Jr

CF - Pompey

RF - Bautista

DH - Smoak

 

Bench:

Navarro

Mayberry Jr/Dirks

Izturis

Pillar/Goins

 

Just a guess on the bench there as I don't know if they would carry a 5th outfielder or another IF backup. With Pillar you'd have your CF back and pinch runner, Izturis can back up any IF position as can Goins defensively though I'd really hate to see Izzy at SS for any length of time... Tolleson is basically DFA fodder at this point IMO. Could also just use Pillar as the other half of the platoon in LF and just use Mayberry as a power-off-the-bench option.

 

I wouldn't say Mayberry/dirks is the plan because it seems like the plan is to get a LF and 2B. I also don't think Izturis can play SS at all. Donaldson is probably 5x better at SS than he would be.

[saskjayfan]

Bullpens only need one or two very good to good arms. After that it is overkill because there starts to be a lack of high leverage innings. The top 2 two spots plus a LOOGY are important. After that the innings start to lose leverage and provide less value. The opposite is said for offense. The more good bats you have, the less outs are made and more PA are generated for everyone else.

 

yeah...cause bullpen arms never get injured...

[burlingtonbandit]

yeah...cause bullpen arms never get injured...

 

Thats exactly why you shouldn't invest a lot of resources into them.

[Governator]

I like the idea of Loup vs LHP and picking up Pat Neshek vs RHP. Any chance Villanueva would come back? Always liked him over Redmond as a long arm option and his FIP has dropped since leaving. He's a very capable depth starter if injuries peak their ugly head as well.

[Stangstag]

Bullpen arms are so volatile year to year... Look at Delabar, Janssen and Loup. Amazing in 2013 but not very good in 2014.

[Stangstag]

I like the idea of Loup vs LHP and picking up Pat Neshek vs RHP. Any chance Villanueva would come back? Always liked him over Redmond as a long arm option and his FIP has dropped since leaving. He's a very capable depth starter if injuries peak their ugly head as well.

 

We don't need anymore longman/back end starters. We have plenty. If we are going to improve the rotation, we need to get someone that will make a difference. Liriano/Shields type.

[saskjayfan]

So therefore you invest more in them?

 

where did I say that? You said you need one or two good to very good arms. I think you need three or four. I'm not saying sign a miller or Robertson for 10+ mil. I'm saying get a couple guys with experience like Grilli to go with a the guys you have or the starters you think will convert and a collection of pretty good arms should sort it out so a few of them can work the back end of games.

[Governator]

Bullpen arms are so volatile year to year... Look at Delabar, Janssen and Loup. Amazing in 2013 but not very good in 2014.

 

To that I say bring back Pat Hentgen to manage it.

[Governator]

We don't need anymore longman/back end starters. We have plenty. If we are going to improve the rotation, we need to get someone that will make a difference. Liriano/Shields type.

 

We are talking about the BP, I'm not saying they shouldn't get a front of the rotation starter. Others were asking for free agent names for BP pick ups. Neshek & Villanueva are guys I like.

[Stangstag]

We are talking about the BP, I'm not saying they shouldn't get a front of the rotation starter. Others were asking for free agent names for BP pick ups. Neshek & Villanueva are guys I like.

 

Ok, well you were talking about Villanueva taking a longman/rotation depth role

[SAAviour]

Call me crazy but I can see drabek being a lights out one inning guy. Didn't he improve his control last year?

My heart wants delabar to bounce back as well.

[Stangstag]

Call me crazy but I can see drabek being a lights out one inning guy. Didn't he improve his control last year?

My heart wants delabar to bounce back as well.

 

I agree, he could find it and become a good reliever.

[JosJos]

Anyone else here want Matt Kemp?

[reedjohnsonfan]

Anyone else here want Matt Kemp?

 

Considering AA is moving away players with injury histories I don't think there's a chance they land Kemp. Let someone else take a risk on his 21 mil/yr contract.

[Ziggyy108]

Not big on Drabeks future at all.

 

IMO he didn't look good when he came back up.

[RealAccountant]

Imagine if AA now signs Nelson Cruz

[burlingtonbandit]

Call me crazy but I can see drabek being a lights out one inning guy. Didn't he improve his control last year?

My heart wants delabar to bounce back as well.

 

He also lost his stuff. Fastball sits at 91 as a reliever. Doesn't strike anyone out.

[Stangstag]

He also lost his stuff. Fastball sits at 91 as a reliever. Doesn't strike anyone out.

 

Does it really? In that case Drabek is done