Jays get Josh Donaldson for Lawrie, Graveman, Nolin and Barreto

[Auldphartt]

OMG Haven't been around here in ages but the Donaldson acquisition was enough to get me out to join the party.

 

After standing pat last year, AA has surpassed himself again. Dumps Lind contract, signs Martin, and now this.

 

What's next? Melky contract? Allstar reliever or 2B for Navarro?

 

Wow. Just wow.

[King]

Keith Law

 

The Blue Jays won the offseason two years ago with their huge deals with the Marlins and the Mets; those were mostly aimed at remaking their rotation. This winter, their moves so far have focused on overhauling the lineup, and while wins in November don't always mean wins the next October, a deal that nets them Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie and a trio of prospects is a damn good start for Toronto general manager Alex Anthopoulos. He's added one of the best players in baseball for a package of prospects that doesn't quite add up.

 

Donaldson turns 29 next month and is just entering his first year of arbitration, and he'll have four such seasons because he's a super-two player this winter. He's second among position players in WAR over the last two seasons, a contributor with his bat, his eye, his power, his glove, and his arm. My No. 76-ranked prospect heading into the 2008 season, Donaldson was drafted by the Cubs out of Auburn where he caught and played the infield corners, coming to Oakland as a "sleeper" in the Rich Harden trade. The A's kept trying to make him a catcher (understandably) until 2012, but soon after they settled him at third base, that compact swing and lower-body power came back.

 

Over the last two seasons, his only two full years in the majors, Donaldson ranks sixth in the majors in unintentional walks drawn and 18th in homers, the latter particularly impressive since he played half his games in a home-run graveyard. He's been the second-best third baseman in baseball over that span, behind only Adrian Beltre, and even a 5-WAR season from him -- worse than the Steamer projections for him for 2013 -- would be a 3-4 win upgrade for Toronto. I'd rather give up what Toronto gave up and pay Donaldson his arbitration salaries for four years than sign Pablo Sandoval for nine figures over five.

 

What I don't quite get is the A's portion of this, even if you take fairly optimistic views of all four players they acquired. Is this really enough for four years of control of one of the best players in baseball? Brett Lawrie is still only 24 years old, and has energy and athleticism to spare, but he gets hurt way too often and has become a severe groundball hitter thanks to a swing that has his hands moving down at the ball from his load. He's an above-average defender at third; he might make you think he's elite because of his highlight-reel plays, but scouts and advanced metrics (UZR/dRS) agree that he's not. What he does do well, however, is put the ball in play, a skill that GMs seem to be telling us this winter that they're valuing more highly than ever (tip your cap in the direction of Kansas City as you read that). There's power in the body if the A's can overhaul his swing, but that's a significant undertaking with any player -- and Lawrie will have to be healthy to make it matter. I still think his upside is a 4-5 win player, but I believe the probability of him getting there is half of what it used to be.

 

Franklin Barreto is a little fella, 5-foot-8 and 170 pounds or so, with a good feel to hit and plus speed but lacking strength to have even average power. He's a shortstop now, erratic but agile enough to become average to slightly above given time and a lot of patience, but with even odds or so that he ends up at second base because he can't develop the consistency he'll need to make 700 plays a year at short. I believe the bat will play somewhere, as his swing is very short and direct and he's shown excellent ability to barrel up the ball so far. He'll play all of 2015 at age 19 and should be able to go to the full-season Midwest League.

 

Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman are both back-end starter types, working with fringy stuff and no real out pitch but above-average command and control. Graveman sits at or just under average velocity as a starter, but was 90-94 in relief at the end of the year for the Jays, getting on top of the ball well to generate downhill plane. Nolin, a left-hander, sits mostly 90-92 with a decent changeup, working by changing speeds and throwing strikes, but is a below-average athlete with a stiff delivery. Graveman has a little more upside with better velocity and a new cutter, while Nolin has size and the left-handedness. The big reveal here is that Oakland loves this type of player, having had success with guys like this in the past -- Tom Milone standing out as the best example, pitching well at home for the A's but much worse away from their pitcher-friendly park, taking advantage of their strong defense everywhere they played. Graveman and Nolin may have more value to Oakland than to most other suitors, but that doesn't alter the absolute balance of the deal.

 

I can understand what the Jays are doing -- they traded three prospects who are either far away or low upside, plus the one major-leaguer they'll directly replace in the deal, to acquire one of the best players in baseball, on top of signing one of the best catchers in baseball as a free agent. They still need to add a starting pitcher, but they have several young arms whom they can mix and match in the last two spots in the rotation. I can't quite fathom what the A's are doing, at least not yet; they signed Billy Butler, which seemed more like a win-now move, but dealing Donaldson makes the team worse in 2015 and doesn't save them that much money in the short term because he's only first-time eligible (for arbitration). They don't have a viable shortstop for this year, and could use an upgrade at second, which would imply they're thinking 2016 and beyond -- but in that case, why sign Butler for three years?

 

If Beane isn't playing for this year, he might have to look at trading Jeff Samardzija and/or Scott Kazmir now, as both players are free agents after 2015. I don't doubt their ability to get more out of the out-of-favor players they acquire, but it'll be hard for the return on Donaldson here to match all the value they gave up.

[BigCecil]

I like it. Was big Lawrie fan and think the kid is a stud on D with a lot more potential at the plate. Total chandelier though so far.

 

Couple of the other pieces sting but we got a bona fide here and now star @3rd.

 

I like AA's aggressiveness again...even though Im still boiling over what coulda been 2014.

[BlueRocky]

do we have enough offense to just plug the 2nd base with ryan goins and use the rest of the money on a pitcher?

[HERPDERP]

I'm surprised Keith Law didn't go out of his way to praise Barreto.

[wardhenke1]

I wonder if Kendrick will seriously consider Toronto now.

[Chappy]

It's funny how everyone is talking about the A's like they have no zero chance of being a playoff team. Then again people talk that way about the A's every year.

 

A's are still a playoff team, just more depthy.

[Maahfaace]

Keith Law

 

The Blue Jays won the offseason two years ago with their huge deals with the Marlins and the Mets; those were mostly aimed at remaking their rotation. This winter, their moves so far have focused on overhauling the lineup, and while wins in November don't always mean wins the next October, a deal that nets them Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie and a trio of prospects is a damn good start for Toronto general manager Alex Anthopoulos. He's added one of the best players in baseball for a package of prospects that doesn't quite add up.

 

Donaldson turns 29 next month and is just entering his first year of arbitration, and he'll have four such seasons because he's a super-two player this winter. He's second among position players in WAR over the last two seasons, a contributor with his bat, his eye, his power, his glove, and his arm. My No. 76-ranked prospect heading into the 2008 season, Donaldson was drafted by the Cubs out of Auburn where he caught and played the infield corners, coming to Oakland as a "sleeper" in the Rich Harden trade. The A's kept trying to make him a catcher (understandably) until 2012, but soon after they settled him at third base, that compact swing and lower-body power came back.

 

Over the last two seasons, his only two full years in the majors, Donaldson ranks sixth in the majors in unintentional walks drawn and 18th in homers, the latter particularly impressive since he played half his games in a home-run graveyard. He's been the second-best third baseman in baseball over that span, behind only Adrian Beltre, and even a 5-WAR season from him -- worse than the Steamer projections for him for 2013 -- would be a 3-4 win upgrade for Toronto. I'd rather give up what Toronto gave up and pay Donaldson his arbitration salaries for four years than sign Pablo Sandoval for nine figures over five.

 

What I don't quite get is the A's portion of this, even if you take fairly optimistic views of all four players they acquired. Is this really enough for four years of control of one of the best players in baseball? Brett Lawrie is still only 24 years old, and has energy and athleticism to spare, but he gets hurt way too often and has become a severe groundball hitter thanks to a swing that has his hands moving down at the ball from his load. He's an above-average defender at third; he might make you think he's elite because of his highlight-reel plays, but scouts and advanced metrics (UZR/dRS) agree that he's not. What he does do well, however, is put the ball in play, a skill that GMs seem to be telling us this winter that they're valuing more highly than ever (tip your cap in the direction of Kansas City as you read that). There's power in the body if the A's can overhaul his swing, but that's a significant undertaking with any player -- and Lawrie will have to be healthy to make it matter. I still think his upside is a 4-5 win player, but I believe the probability of him getting there is half of what it used to be.

 

Franklin Barreto is a little fella, 5-foot-8 and 170 pounds or so, with a good feel to hit and plus speed but lacking strength to have even average power. He's a shortstop now, erratic but agile enough to become average to slightly above given time and a lot of patience, but with even odds or so that he ends up at second base because he can't develop the consistency he'll need to make 700 plays a year at short. I believe the bat will play somewhere, as his swing is very short and direct and he's shown excellent ability to barrel up the ball so far. He'll play all of 2015 at age 19 and should be able to go to the full-season Midwest League.

 

Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman are both back-end starter types, working with fringy stuff and no real out pitch but above-average command and control. Graveman sits at or just under average velocity as a starter, but was 90-94 in relief at the end of the year for the Jays, getting on top of the ball well to generate downhill plane. Nolin, a left-hander, sits mostly 90-92 with a decent changeup, working by changing speeds and throwing strikes, but is a below-average athlete with a stiff delivery. Graveman has a little more upside with better velocity and a new cutter, while Nolin has size and the left-handedness. The big reveal here is that Oakland loves this type of player, having had success with guys like this in the past -- Tom Milone standing out as the best example, pitching well at home for the A's but much worse away from their pitcher-friendly park, taking advantage of their strong defense everywhere they played. Graveman and Nolin may have more value to Oakland than to most other suitors, but that doesn't alter the absolute balance of the deal.

 

I can understand what the Jays are doing -- they traded three prospects who are either far away or low upside, plus the one major-leaguer they'll directly replace in the deal, to acquire one of the best players in baseball, on top of signing one of the best catchers in baseball as a free agent. They still need to add a starting pitcher, but they have several young arms whom they can mix and match in the last two spots in the rotation. I can't quite fathom what the A's are doing, at least not yet; they signed Billy Butler, which seemed more like a win-now move, but dealing Donaldson makes the team worse in 2015 and doesn't save them that much money in the short term because he's only first-time eligible (for arbitration). They don't have a viable shortstop for this year, and could use an upgrade at second, which would imply they're thinking 2016 and beyond -- but in that case, why sign Butler for three years?

 

If Beane isn't playing for this year, he might have to look at trading Jeff Samardzija and/or Scott Kazmir now, as both players are free agents after 2015. I don't doubt their ability to get more out of the out-of-favor players they acquire, but it'll be hard for the return on Donaldson here to match all the value they gave up.

 

I think come tomorrow this will be the concensus around the league

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm surprised Keith Law didn't go out of his way to praise Barreto.

 

Keith Law has said some pretty dumb things lately. Said the Jays need pitching but also said Deon Travis is a nobody and not saying anything in the article about 2B.

[fatcowxlive]

I'm surprised Keith Law didn't go out of his way to praise Barreto.

 

Even he knows this deal is beyond 18 year old prospects with huge potentials. Lawrie too was a young prospect with huge potential and now he's struggling to put a healthy season together

[LongTimeReader]

Surprised more are not talking about how Lawrie was a very popular player here, seems he brought a lot more girls and hockey fans to the stadium (not real baseball fans but nevertheless paid attendance). AA has balls of steal.

[TheHurl]

do we have enough offense to just plug the 2nd base with ryan goins and use the rest of the money on a pitcher?

 

Macier and Travis

[Inklink]

Surprised more are not talking about how Lawrie was a very popular player here, seems he brought a lot more girls and hockey fans to the stadium (not real baseball fans but nevertheless paid attendance). AA has balls of steal.

 

A winning team can sell out the Dome on it's own.

[Dylan]

do we have enough offense to just plug the 2nd base with ryan goins and use the rest of the money on a pitcher?

Not with lf open and pompey starting. Need one more lineup piece

 

Pitching is the most important thing though

[King]

My erection has not subsided

[King]

Alright kid, you had your 15 minutes of fame.......

 

Devan Fink ‏@CoverThoseBases 2m2 minutes ago

Beane gets himself that in Lawrie, plus two other strong pitching prospects. I also really like Barreto. This is a really good deal for OAK.

 

Devan Fink ‏@CoverThoseBases 1m1 minute ago

People are saying that the A's didn't get enough for Donaldson. That isn't right. The Blue Jays gave up too much for Donaldson.

 

*unfollow*

[TheHurl]

A winning team can sell out the Dome on it's own.

 

no it cannot...it's been proven it cannot. What's been proven is that off season hype sells season tickets. That office is going to be a buzz tomorrow and right up until Christmas. Even if the Jays don't win s*** this year, 2012 proved that off season hope makes money on ticket sales.

[Caper]

My god... They are talking to GD on the radio I think.

[King]

Andrew Stoeten ‏@AndrewStoeten 1m1 minute ago

f***. Donaldson outside the coliseum over the last two years: .291/.380/.496.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

Barry Davis ‏@SNBarryDavis 1m1 minute ago

AA "we've become a more desirable place for FA pitchers since the Martin deal." #BlueJays

 

Fapfapfpafpapfapfpafpap

 

Start printing those Lester jerseys now!

[Slugger]

Unbelievable trade. This makes 0 sense for Oakland, especially when you consider Donaldson has 1 more year of control. I'm reading the comments on TSN such as "this trade sucks" and I want to stab myself in the head. People are f***ing retards.

 

"ZOMG!1!! LAWRIE WAS IN THAT COMMERCIAL HE MUST BE SEW GOOD!"

[GD]

Wonder what the Moogster thinks of this.

[Deadpool]

do we have enough offense to just plug the 2nd base with ryan goins and use the rest of the money on a pitcher?

 

Enough to cover Pompey as our starting CF.. That's for sure...

[fatcowxlive]

Start printing those Lester jerseys now!

 

Some people saying Shields

Some people saying Max

Some people saying Lester

 

WHO WILL IT BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[King]

Wonder what the Moogster thinks of this.

 

He'd find someway to be the contrarian.

[Orgfiller]

Andrew Stoeten ‏@AndrewStoeten 1m1 minute ago

f***. Donaldson outside the coliseum over the last two years: .291/.380/.496.

 

Is this supposed to be a good thing or a bad thing? I can't read hipster douchebag.

[King]

Is this supposed to be a good thing or a bad thing? I can't read hipster douchebag.

 

lol

[Deadpool]

He'd find someway to be the contrarian.

 

"It's a great trade, but I'm still smarter than all of you and you're all *******s!"

[labadee]

SNBarryDavis

AA "his swing reminds me of Bautista and Donaldson says hes studied Jose"

 

yes please. more please.

[Spoonovic]

I've had a rough week: strep throat, lost my job, been stressing over a huge exam in my profession next week that I am not confident about. So the news of this trade was very welcoming. Thank you AA.

 

Lets go Blue Jays!