Blue Jays talking about Jay Bruce

[Laika]

Yes, I'm thinking along these lines, and if it's a salary dump, then it's something the Jays should jump at, but I have a feeling that at that point many other teams will be interested as well. Anyone remember what Trumbo was traded for?

 

They traded Tyler Skaggs and Adam Eaton for Trumbo, lmao. That wasn't a salary dump at all though.

 

Sanchez is a lofty hypothetical for Bruce (unless you think Sanchez is horribly overrated), but a "salary dump" characterization is also a stretch.

 

It would be legit prospects, maybe in the lower minors though. Every Jays fan's favourite trade chip Sean Nolin could be piece B, while piece A could be someone far off but with real upside like Rich Urena, maybe. I dunno.

 

I'm sure the Reds will want cheap MLB ready pieces more than anything.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Bruce has ridiculous power potential, 30 HR is not nearly what he is capable of. It's not like he is Mark Reynolds, trading for him would be a risk but one that may pay off in a huge way.

[Mikeleelop]

Negative WAR players don't get significant trade assets

 

Nolin + seems like too much

[Jimcanuck]

Negative WAR players don't get significant trade assets

 

Nolin + seems like too much

 

Not really. Nolin's ceiling is middle of the rotation but is more likely a bullpen piece. A good low level prospect has about 10% chance of reaching the majors.

[gbill2004]

The real question in determining Bruce's trade value is whether 2014 was an off year, or whether Bruce is regressing. Seems to be some data/analysis to support both.

[Laika]

Bruce has ridiculous power potential, 30 HR is not nearly what he is capable of. It's not like he is Mark Reynolds, trading for him would be a risk but one that may pay off in a huge way.

 

Yup.

 

The guy isn't a plus defender but he plays an average, maybe even slightly above average corner OF - that has some value. And he strikes out a fair bit but it's not at a Chris Carter level or anything.

 

Here are some reports on Bruce from back in the day, to put his ceiling in perspective as he enters his physical prime (granted, his tools aren't the same as they used to be).

 

2008 BP

1. Jay Bruce, CF

Year In Review: After outshining prospects like Cameron Maybin and Justin Upton to win Midwest League MVP honors in 2006, Bruce went from High-A to the cusp of the majors in the blink of an eye, mashing at every level along the way.

The Good: Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He's a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually. He has average to slightly-above speed and has proven to be surprisingly capable in center field, while also showcasing a strong arm. He supplements his natural abilities with strong makeup and an outstanding work ethic.

The Bad: Anything here is just nitpicking. He's anything but a hacker, but he does often swing at pitches he'd be better served by letting go by. While he'll likely begin his career in center, most believe he'll move to a corner once he fills out.

Fun Fact: In the first three innings of Triple-A games, Bruce went 5-for-55 (.091) without a home run. Afterwards, he hit .394 with 11 home runs in 132 at-bats.

Perfect World Projection: A perennial All-Star and MVP candidate. A true superstar in the mold of a healthy Larry Walker.

Timetable: The Reds dealt Josh Hamilton to the Rangers in order to open up a spot for Bruce in the big-league lineup. The future of the Reds franchise begins now.

 

2007 BA

Every one of Bruce's tools is better than average. On the 20-80 scouting scale, his bat rates as a 65, his power as a 65-70, his speed as a 55, his defense in center field as a 55 (projected as a 60 if he moves to right field) and his arm as a 60. As impressive as his tools are, he also has exceptional instincts and exceptional makeup. He's a leader in the clubhouse and has the aw-shucks humbleness to be the public face of the franchise.

[Stangstag]

The real question in determining Bruce's trade value is whether 2014 was an off year, or whether Bruce is regressing. Seems to be some data/analysis to support both.

 

Yeah if you trade for Bruce as more than a salary dump, you are taking a gamble.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Negative WAR players don't get significant trade assets

 

Nolin + seems like too much

 

Sean Nolin put up mediocre stats in AAA this year. He's marginally above a throw-in prospect.

[SAAviour]

Im all for bruce as a salary dump, or even a half decent prospect or two, but not for Sanchez.

[Angrioter]

Sean Nolin is s***. Bullpen arm maybe.

[JaysRap]

I say make a mega deal and get Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto AND Brandon Phillips.

[Jimcanuck]

I say make a mega deal and get Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto AND Brandon Phillips.

 

Phillips 2B, Reyes SS, and EE 1B is cringeworthy.... Jays need a good fielding 2B not named Goins

[glory]

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of Sanchez, but his value should be higher than Bruce's.

[Laika]

Sean Nolin is s***. Bullpen arm maybe.

 

Nolin has been effective / very good in every minor league season with appropriate age vs. level all the way up the ladder.

 

I'm pretty confident that he'll at least be a JA Happy #5 SP, if given the proper opportunity to make adjustments to the majors.

[Captain Adama]

Negative WAR players don't get significant trade assets

 

Nolin + seems like too much

 

Even if said player has been worth on average 3+ WAR and is on the correct side of the bell curve?

 

If the Jays got Bruce for Nolin+ I'd be f***ing ecstatic.

[Chappy]

Nolin has been effective / very good in every minor league season with appropriate age vs. level all the way up the ladder.

 

I'm pretty confident that he'll at least be a JA Happy #5 SP, if given the proper opportunity to make adjustments to the majors.

 

Yeah I'm not sure why so many people s*** on Nolin. No one should expect anything special but a serviceable backend guys doesn't seem unreasonable.

[TwistedLogic]

They traded Tyler Skaggs and Adam Eaton for Trumbo, lmao. That wasn't a salary dump at all though.

 

Sanchez is a lofty hypothetical for Bruce (unless you think Sanchez is horribly overrated), but a "salary dump" characterization is also a stretch.

 

It would be legit prospects, maybe in the lower minors though. Every Jays fan's favourite trade chip Sean Nolin could be piece B, while piece A could be someone far off but with real upside like Rich Urena, maybe. I dunno.

 

I'm sure the Reds will want cheap MLB ready pieces more than anything.

 

Yeah I know, haha, I was just using Trumbo as an example of the kind of ridiculous premiums that power sometimes goes for on the market. And I think something along the lines of what you proposed is one of the more realistic scenarios, and I would be elated if they could get him at that kind of price tag.

[Daniel Labude]

Sanchez, Nolin, Norris for Bruce, and Cueto

[Hawkins]

Sanchez, Nolin, Norris for Bruce, and Cueto

 

No thanks. If the Reds are wanting to shed payroll then target Bruce and Philips for prospects not rated in our top 6

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Enough of power hitters who strike out to much! Just sign Suzuki already and get it over with! LH hitter platoon him with Mayberry save the money for Shields, Miller and Headley !

[Sammy225]

No thanks. If the Reds are wanting to shed payroll then target Bruce and Philips for prospects not rated in our top 6

 

What are you on i want some. Not giving up at top 6 pick for that talent is very unrealistic and that's me being nice. Obviously your with dumb or trolling

[TheHurl]

Negative WAR players don't get significant trade assets

 

Nolin + seems like too much

 

Michael Morse got Washington AJ Cole

[Spanky99]

I wouldn't mind Bruce, if the price is right.

[Hawkins]

What are you on i want some. Not giving up at top 6 pick for that talent is very unrealistic and that's me being nice. Obviously your with dumb or trolling

 

the Reds will either go for it and let guys walk for nothing or they will start shedding payroll for prospects and look to quickly rebuild. Not many teams will want Phillips contract and Bruce just had a down year so it's not going to cost our best prospects.

[Laika]

Michael Morse got Washington AJ Cole

 

AJ Cole + !

[HERPDERP]

We get Bruce, and you're going to continue to see his terrible numbers. If I recall they were partially because he was injured, as well as teams employing the shift against him hardcore.

[glory]

Saunders would be better and cheaper to get, IMO.

[Deadpool]

Saunders would be better and cheaper to get, IMO.

 

Cheaper, probably not better...

[Deadpool]

Most likely better.

 

I guess it depends on your opinion of Bruce's 2014. I'm more of the "fluke/injury/etc" down season than an indication that he's falling off. Steamer likes Saunders more for 2015, granted. Bruce is actually younger than Saunders too.

 

Personally, I like either of them over Melky going forward (though, Bruce may be too rich for my blood in terms of prospects...)

[RealAccountant]

I think the right course of action is to resign Melky. He fits in very well with this batting lineup.