Offseason roster thread 2014

[awsomest]

Anyone listening to the Jerry Howarth interview right now on the Blair show. Both him and Blair are dropping some good Nuggets re:Dickey. Blair let it be known that he was told that RA and Gibbons had some heated run-ins in the clubhouse, and Howarth said that RA is an island to himself in the clubhouse, and that is NOT what is needed on a team of 25 guys, and goes on to praise Buehrle.

 

If Jerry is coming out and saying that, Its made up my mind 100% that Dickey (and Thole) will be traded this offseason.

 

All AA has to do is give him a good smack and take thole away then give him a speech about how hes no longer in new york, Kinda like what brad pitt did with David justice

[RealAccountant]

I think the problem is that Dickey should not be a salary dump. at 12 Million and 2WAR, Dickey is a great buy for all clubs. I want Dickey traded, but there must be something decent in it. Not just the release of $12 Million. If Dickey was a free agent pitcher today, I think he could easily get a 3 year/45 Million type deal.

[LongTimeReader]

I think the problem is that Dickey should not be a salary dump. at 12 Million and 2WAR, Dickey is a great buy for all clubs. I want Dickey traded, but there must be something decent in it. Not just the release of $12 Million. If Dickey was a free agent pitcher today, I think he could easily get a 3 year/45 Million type deal.

 

I don't buy into pitcher WAR much, in any case Dickey is definitely not a "great" value at $12mil. Fair value at best.

[Laika]

Dickey and Buehrle are probably to top 2 bets in baseball to start 32+ games, and they are both good enough at preventing runs that they should keep a good offense like Toronto's in almost every game.

 

If Rogers indeed has lifted the payroll cap, then it's hard to justify giving up a dual performance buffer like that.

 

Having both of them significantly reduces the risk of rotational disaster.

 

I wonder if it's possible to 'frame' a knuckleball?

[z3r0s]

Dickey and Buehrle are probably to top 2 bets in baseball to start 32+ games, and they are both good enough at preventing runs that they should keep a good offense like Toronto's in almost every game.

 

If Rogers indeed has lifted the payroll cap, then it's hard to justify giving up a dual performance buffer like that.

 

Having both of them significantly reduces the risk of rotational disaster.

 

I wonder if it's possible to 'frame' a knuckleball?

 

If you have to trade one, trade the one that costs millions of dollars more. And for god sakes get rid of Thole in any case.

[Laika]

And for god sakes get rid of Thole in any case.

 

Hopefully the Blue Jays have realized how significant it is to essentially have a dead roster spot...

 

And it's not like Thole has been helping Dickey maintain his NYM level performance.

[RealAccountant]

I don't buy into pitcher WAR much, in any case Dickey is definitely not a "great" value at $12mil. Fair value at best.

 

Fair value is hard to find when it comes to durable starters who are guaranteed to pitch 200LP

[TwistedLogic]

In a rare millennial occurrence, Wilner actually gave a decent interview on the Sammut/Rusic show re: Martin.

 

If ass-clowns like Wilner are heavily referring to pitch-framing as a credible talent, maybe it's not as esoteric as it once was and shouldn't be that much of a surprise that the market is actually putting a value on it now.

[z3r0s]

Hopefully the Blue Jays have realized how significant it is to essentially have a dead roster spot...

 

And it's not like Thole has been helping Dickey maintain his NYM level performance.

 

I said it in a different thread, but Dickey may have the most to gain from Martin's framing.

[Laika]

I said it in a different thread, but Dickey may have the most to gain from Martin's framing.

 

It's either the most or least to gain. One or the other.

[TDotttt2005]

In a rare millennial occurrence, Wilner actually gave a decent interview on the Sammut/Rusic show re: Martin.

 

If ass-clowns like Wilner are heavily referring to pitch-framing as a credible talent, maybe it's not as esoteric as it once was and shouldn't be that much of a surprise that the market is actually putting a value on it now.

 

Wilner is just following the crowd, he didn't give any original thought or value-added insight re:framing, which is his norm. He basically regurgitated what Fangraphs/other Brian Kenny media disciples have said, and mixed it in with the Rogers-inspired optimism, as usual.

 

I can't really listen to the guy anymore. Hes such a hypocrite, and its comical now. Imagine if the Red Sox signed Martin to that identical deal, and he were asked to comment on it. He'd be all over it as a ridiculous overpay, something the Jays shouldnt touch, how will he be on the turf after catching at age 36...on and on. Yet, the Jays sign him, and hes talking about every positive it brings, how framing doesnt age, how Martin's athleticism will allow him to not break down...etc. etc. etc. He's been a joke ever since Rogers bitchslapped him at Cito's request.

[Nox]

It's either the most or least to gain. One or the other.

 

I don't think we know that either.

 

Basically everything to do with the analysis of knuckleballers is guessing. Scouting, metrics, whatever else....we don't really know much here.

[baubau]

Should have been gone already . Give the guy a chance to catch a minor league deal, why waste time here.

 

Should have been traded for Chase 'God Damn' Headley. SD would have eaten his salary too. Guh!

 

If you have to trade one, trade the one that costs millions of dollars more. And for god sakes get rid of Thole in any case.

 

I would rather have Burly as he is just as much of a workhorse, doesn't need a personal catcher and from everything I've read, a good leader/mentor. Its hard to place a value on leadership, I know, but would rather have him than Dickey. I found it funny when Stroman was basically his shadow after the O's incident.

 

With that being said, I agree that you would have to trade him. His value is likely its highest, he only has 1 year left and chances are once his deal expires he'll be out of Toronto to join his family/dogs. Don't blame him for that. With Dickey you still have years of control and at a lower hit.

[L54]

With Dickey you still have years of control and at a lower hit.

 

Good point. Beuhrle is as good as gone after this season. As much as we want to see Stroman and Hutch turn into reliable 180+ inning guys, the reality is we just don't know that for sure. Dickey's durability just might be needed in this rotation a year from now, too.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Arizona is looking to dump salary, would they do Ross and Hill saving 21.5 mill for a izturis,Francisco and pillar plus money!

[TwistedLogic]

Good point. Beuhrle is as good as gone after this season. As much as we want to see Stroman and Hutch turn into reliable 180+ inning guys, the reality is we just don't know that for sure. Dickey's durability just might be needed in this rotation a year from now, too.

 

Buehrle will cost nothing after his contract runs out, he'd be a great guy to bring back on a lower salary. He's still a work horse, he'll still probably be medicore-to-decent, and he's always been a great coaching presence in the club house. That being said, I doubt he'll personally want to return. His life is so much easier when he can live in a place where he can stay with his dogs and family.

[Laika]

I don't think we know that either.

 

Basically everything to do with the analysis of knuckleballers is guessing. Scouting, metrics, whatever else....we don't really know much here.

 

I just think you can get there logically.

 

If a knuckleballer can be framed, then they should benefit disproportionately from a good framer since so many thrown strikes in the bottom third of the zone get called balls.

If a knuckleballer can't really be framed because of how catchers have to react to the knuckleball, then he's the guy who benefits the least, obviously.

[Nox]

If a knuckleballer can be framed, then they should benefit disproportionately from a good framer since so many thrown strikes in the bottom third of the zone get called balls.

 

That relies on the assumption that an umpire views a knuckler in the lower third the same way he views a traditional offering. I'm not sure how well that holds. You could be right, I don't actually know.

[Brenner]

Arizona is looking to dump salary, would they do Ross and Hill saving 21.5 mill for a izturis,Francisco and pillar plus money!

 

Not interested in Ross or Hill. I liked Aaron Hill but he is inconsistent year to year, aging, and is just not reliable.

[TwistedLogic]

I'm wondering how much Billingsley is expected to make. If you can get him for a minor league deal, with a decent guaranteed MLB contract if he makes the team out of spring training, I think you have to explore that option. I don't think his value can be lower than it is, coming off of two major surgeries, but the talent has always been there.

[RealAccountant]

I'm wondering how much Billingsley is expected to make. If you can get him for a minor league deal, with a decent guaranteed MLB contract if he makes the team out of spring training, I think you have to explore that option. I don't think his value can be lower than it is, coming off of two major surgeries, but the talent has always been there.

 

But he would be the ninth or the tenth option with the 6 MLB starters we have, and Sanchez/Norris being semi ready/

[RealAccountant]

WAR Question

 

if you add up all the steamer projection of WAR for Jays currently, you get 35. what do we add this to, to determine Steamers expected win for the Jays

[L54]

Buehrle will cost nothing after his contract runs out, he'd be a great guy to bring back on a lower salary. He's still a work horse, he'll still probably be medicore-to-decent, and he's always been a great coaching presence in the club house. That being said, I doubt he'll personally want to return. His life is so much easier when he can live in a place where he can stay with his dogs and family.

 

I agree with you completely, Twisted. Just no way he wants to come back.

[reedjohnsonfan]

WAR Question

 

if you add up all the steamer projection of WAR for Jays currently, you get 35. what do we add this to, to determine Steamers expected win for the Jays

 

Add 52

[Orgfiller]

WAR Question

 

if you add up all the steamer projection of WAR for Jays currently, you get 35. what do we add this to, to determine Steamers expected win for the Jays

 

A team full of replacement level players is predicted to put up a specific record which I can't recall. I assume if you add the wins above replacement it should give you an estimate on the amount of wins that team should get.

[reedjohnsonfan]

47.7

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/replacement-level/

Though when adding up the WAR you have to make sure total PA and total IP are within range of a full season's worth. I would think they aren't quite there with the 35 mark.

 

When I read that a couple of years ago it said 52, has it changed? That would make sense, I do not see the Jays as an 87 win team right now.

 

Regression from wikipedia: Wins = 52.7 + 0.97*fWAR

 

That's probably where I got it from. So 47.7 makes sense.

[RealAccountant]

You can add a win for Dickey + Buehrle defense and add 2 for Martin's framing.

 

fangraph war doesnt include framing?

[glory]

I agree with you completely, Twisted. Just no way he wants to come back.

 

If he has another typical season for him he'd be worth the qualifying offer. Is any team going to give up a pick for him? Maybe, but the QO might increase the chances of him returning.

[Governator]

Didn't know where to post this, this place seems right:

 

 

FanGraphs: On The Blue Jays And Going For It In The AL East

by Mike Petriello - November 20, 2014

 

I’m sure I’ve said this before, but one of my favorite tools on our site would have to be the Depth Charts, which combine Steamer projections and human-curated depth charts to output expected WAR totals.

 

What I’ve done today — last night, really, which I’m clarifying only in the event of some huge late-night signing that would invalidate all of this — is to sort that by division and graph it out. When you do that, you get this:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/2015-11-19-team-war.jpg

 

A few things stand out there, things like “should we just give the NL East to Washington now or must we wait until next year” and “just think about what the Phillies are going to look like after they trade Cole Hamels, Marlon Byrd, and whomever else.” If the Mariners look too high, well, Jeff already delved into that. If the Yankees look too low, well, name their infield or a single reliably healthy starting pitcher.

 

Obviously, what we’re looking at is a snapshot of things they way they are right this second, and that’s not how they’ll look when the season kicks off. To use just one example: No, I don’t imagine we’ll be looking at the Dodgers and Rockies as being nearly equal teams in April, because at the moment, the Dodgers have almost literally no shortstop and just three-plus starting pitchers.

 

You get the idea, though. A lot’s going to change, but in order for teams to effectively make those decisions, they have to adequately understand where they are right now. That’s what might stand out the most about this chart, actually, at least to me — just look at the American League East.

 

If you prefer the raw numbers to the chart, here’s how we have this quintet sitting right now:

 

TOR 36

BOS 35.6

TB 35.1

BAL 34.5

NYY 29.4

 

That’s four teams in virtually a dead heat, at least within the margin of error of not caring about tenths of a point in WAR and giving the Orioles whatever boost you care to offer for the fact that they continually outplay our expectations. When we talk about going for it at the right time, or having an appropriate window to win, this is what we mean. While we learned this year that all sorts of ridiculous things can happen in a sport that has two wild cards, increasing the value of a half-decent team with hope, a division that has absolutely no clear front-runner seems like exactly the kind of situation where you’d want to push your chips to the middle of the table.

 

That’s what Toronto clearly did with Russell Martin, anyway, and the timing is right. The 2014 Jays finished a distant third place, but they also increased by nine wins over 2013. This wasn’t about luck or sequencing; Base Runs considered them an 84-win team, and they won 83. Now, the 500 or so plate appearances that were going to go to Dioner Navarro (2.0 WAR last year) will instead be going to Martin (5.1 WAR last year). With our understanding that catcher WAR doesn’t really have the full impact of pitch framing baked in — and considering Martin is enormously better than Navarro at framing, perhaps two wins on its own — it’s possible to suggest that the Jays received an even bigger boost than we’re showing here.

 

With one move, that AL East WAR ranking looks a little different than it would have a few days earlier. In 2015, Steamer easily sees a difference of 2-3 WAR between the two, enough of an improvement that if I’d done this before Monday, the Jays might have been ranked fourth in the AL East. (Again, understanding the limitations in decimal points in WAR.)

 

That’s the point, really. In a division that looks this tight, the value of every additional win is simply off the scale. When the Jays calculated whether giving Martin $82 million dollars made sense, part of that calculus is clearly that the AL East simply isn’t what it was. The Yankees have all sorts of problems, especially if Masahiro Tanaka‘s arm doesn’t hold up, and we’ve already wondered whether the post-Friedman/Maddon Rays have seen their best days. The Red Sox have too much talent to repeat last year’s disaster and clearly intend to spend this winter; on the other hand, depending on how you feel about Clay Buchholz, they may not have even a single above-average starting pitcher. Even if Jon Lester returns, it’s not easy to build an entire rotation in one offseason.

 

It’s not just that the Jays see weakness among their competition, either. It’s that they look at themselves and fairly wonder that the core of this team might only be around for another year or two. Martin will be 32 in February, and he’ll be joining a team that counts Jose Bautista (34 in 2015), Edwin Encarnacion (32), Jose Reyes (32), R.A. Dickey (40), and Mark Buehrle (36) as the primary components. That’s not to say that there’s no youth — Brett Lawrie will be just 25, and Drew Hutchison and Marcus Stroman each 24, Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris both 22.

 

Maybe that sounds doom-and-gloom for the future; maybe it will be. But for the moment, with what’s happening in the division and the simple aging of their best players, this is the right time for the Jays to be making a big splash like the one they made with Martin. Of course, if you’re going to make that kind of statement, you can’t stop there. Toronto still has an enormous hole in second base, where the Ryan Goins / Steve Tolleson / Maicer Izturis / Munenori Kawasaki situation was a disaster; in the outfield, where both Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus are free agents; in the bullpen, where Casey Janssen and Brandon Morrow depart a group that was mediocre; and potentially at DH without Adam Lind, unless you strongly believe in Justin Smoak.

 

You can’t get Martin and say, well, we’ve done enough. That’ll be it. The good news, however: It almost certainly won’t be. Back in October, team CEO Paul Beeston said that he expected the payroll would increase; since then, there’s been reports that the new CEO of parent company Rogers, Guy Lawrence, views the team’s success as important and is willing to approve additional spending.

 

That’s why the recent revelation of just how backloaded Martin’s contract is was so fascinating. Martin’s five-year deal works out like this:

 

2015: $7M

2016: $15M

2017: $20M

2018: $20M

2019: $20M

 

Is paying Martin 20 million dollars in 2019 going to be easy? No, probably not. But what that does is allow for even more flexibility right now. Including Martin, the team has approximately $110M booked for 10 players (and Ricky Romero!); arbitration, depending on some tender decisions, would be about $9M – $10M more. In 2014, they started the year with a payroll of approximately $137M. If the payroll merely stayed the same, there’s room for another big move or two. If it rises, the Jays could be a surprisingly major player.

 

If you believe the reports, that’s what they’re working on. Here’s a report calling the Jays “very aggressive” in going after Andrew Miller. This one says they want Jon Lester. Yet another says they’re going to make an offer to Pablo Sandoval. “Reports” are just that, of course; they mean nothing until a deal is actually done. But the idea is there, anyway. The Jays can’t just get an expensive over-30 catcher and be done. They have to do more, and all indications are that they have the money and interest in doing so.

 

After two years of having done barely anything at all since the big trades that brought Reyes, Buehrle and Dickey to town, the Jays finally look like they’re ready to make a move. The division is weakened. Their window might be limited. Now is the time.

[RealAccountant]

^ Thanks for the above, but I assume Boston doesn't include Lester and Pablo, if they sign them both they will be way ahead of every one else