Tanaka to Yankees, 7yrs/$155MM

[jaysfan2014]

That's not true. Most of the casual fans, especially in New York, picked the Yankees as World Series contenders after the Tanaka signing. Unfortunately, like the Jays of last year, the Yankees have gaping holes to be fixed, even moreso than the Jays in 2013, with holes at 2B, a decent SS (Jeter's a DH at best), 3B, and the bullpen behind David Robertson, if he can survive being the closer.

 

Tex needs to stay healthy as well, but rumour has it his wrist is acting up already, and he may not be ready for Opening Day, as according to MLB.com’s Yankees beat writer Bryan Hoch, Teixeira is still experiencing a bit of stiffness in his surgically repaired wrist while swinging off a tee and continued strengthening exercise. Not a good sign, especially considering he's basically the cleanup hitter now with A-Rod and Cano gone.

 

They also need Sabathia and Kuroda to rebound as well.

 

Look, unlike Boston and Tampa, the Yankees are far from sure things. Even ESPN is calling them a 4th place team after the Tanaka signing, behind Boston, Tampa and Toronto, as Baltimore is likely a last place team as constructed presently.

[jaysfan2014]

Don't forget, Boston had a core of players in Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz and Lester as well. They supplemented their core with mid-level free agents on short term deals like Napoli, Victorino and Drew who helped contribute to Boston's World Series win, and didn't paralyze their team with untradeable deals, like the Yankees have, with Tex, A-Rod, Sabathia, and eventually Ellsbury and McCann being untradeable assets.

[TwistedLogic]

Well done. The only thing you left out is that some of the legwork had already been done in anticipation of a possilbe Peavy trade. This meant that AA already knew a payroll bump could be approved and that probably emboldened him. As far as I know, the Peavy trade was also entirely his idea.

 

The thing that's frustrating is that the Team President should act as a voice of reason. He should be saying "You know, this could really back us into a corner." not "Entertainment! Track team!". Beaston thinks like an uninformed fan.

 

Exactly this. Going back to Moogy's analogy about the car, there's one big flaw that he left out. In my household and all the others I'm familiar with, the mother is generally the voice of reason. She's not one to mark out and jump with excitement that her son has decided to ditch his desire to buy a value car and suddenly wants a shiny Lexus, going straight to the father for the final seal of approval. It's assumed she would first sit down with the kid, and caution him all the way through to make sure he knows what he's doing, the repercussions in the event that it backfires and he's left with an overpriced dud of a car, and the responsibility he has with making the first major transaction of his life. I agree that the Marlins trade is all on AA (and I still don't mind that trade) but it's on Beeston for being an immature and moronic homer, jizzing at the thought of "selling entertainment". And if Beeston was behind the idea that you absolutely have to get rid of one of the best contracts in baseball in Yunel Escobar simply because of a stupid high school joke and the PR ramifications it brings, then Beeston is also the one that enabled AA to hound over Reyes in the first place. If you aren't in a situation where you have to throw away Yunel for pennies on the dollar, you're not in the situation where Jose Reyes is so much more appealing than he's always been to you.

[DuckDuckGose]

That's not true. Most of the casual fans, especially in New York, picked the Yankees as World Series contenders after the Tanaka signing. Unfortunately, like the Jays of last year, the Yankees have gaping holes to be fixed, even moreso than the Jays in 2013, with holes at 2B, a decent SS (Jeter's a DH at best), 3B, and the bullpen behind David Robertson, if he can survive being the closer.

 

Tex needs to stay healthy as well, but rumour has it his wrist is acting up already, and he may not be ready for Opening Day, as according to MLB.com’s Yankees beat writer Bryan Hoch, Teixeira is still experiencing a bit of stiffness in his surgically repaired wrist while swinging off a tee and continued strengthening exercise. Not a good sign, especially considering he's basically the cleanup hitter now with A-Rod and Cano gone.

 

They also need Sabathia and Kuroda to rebound as well.

 

Look, unlike Boston and Tampa, the Yankees are far from sure things. Even ESPN is calling them a 4th place team after the Tanaka signing, behind Boston, Tampa and Toronto, as Baltimore is likely a last place team as constructed presently.

 

The Jays had huge holes with replacement level players filling them. The NYY not so much. Every team has weaknesses but don't kid yourself the NYY are going to be really good next year.

[jaysfan2014]

Tanaka stands to lose big money in NY:

 

http://www.atr.org/yankees-pitcher-lose-over-half-million-a8085

 

He would've been better off in Arizona or Chicago if he was going for the money.. New York's tax burden is quite high. It's likely part of the reason for the Yankees heavily overpaying guys like Tanaka.

[John_Havok]

The Jays had huge holes with replacement level players filling them. The NYY not so much. Every team has weaknesses but don't kid yourself the NYY are going to be really good next year.

 

As long as they're all on the field. They have just as many health concerns as the Jays, if not more

[saskjayfan]

As long as they're all on the field. They have just as many health concerns as the Jays, if not more

 

I love how the Yankees have no holes....there's already talk tex might not be ready for opening day..and the days where jeter and tex are both missing who's playing first, 2nd, 3rd and short?.....yeah....not so rock solid afterall...

[Chappy]

on the days when reyes and lawrie are missing we're looking at an izturis-diaz-goins-lind-navarro infield. Not so rock solid after all.

 

Edwin dh?

[Abomination]

Trolling aside, yeah I think Lind is a much better 1B than Edwin.

 

They seem pretty similar to me (ie, below average), except for Lind somehow being a master at digging throws out of the dirt. Edwin might have slightly better range. (this is without looking up the metrics)

[Angrioter]

Trolling aside, yeah I think Lind is a much better 1B than Edwin.

 

No, he's not

[jaysfan2014]

Nick Cafardo's newest article:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/01/25/who-are-best-coaches-baseball/zcpxKWtI6PQSWz1cTmNQVM/story.html

 

1. Here’s the way one GM handicapped the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes: Yankees $155 million, Cubs $120 million, Diamondbacks $120 million, Dodgers $119 million, White Sox $100 million, Astros $100 million.

 

Based on that, the Yankees heavily overpaid on Tanaka on money and years.

[KingKat]

Nick Cafardo's newest article:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/01/25/who-are-best-coaches-baseball/zcpxKWtI6PQSWz1cTmNQVM/story.html

 

1. Here’s the way one GM handicapped the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes: Yankees $155 million, Cubs $120 million, Diamondbacks $120 million, Dodgers $119 million, White Sox $100 million, Astros $100 million.

 

Based on that, the Yankees heavily overpaid on Tanaka on money and years.

 

Not necessarily an overpayment when you consider differences in taxes. In terms of what the player takes home, their probably isn't a big difference between the Yankees offer and the Diamondbacks, assuming of course that these are accurate.

[DuckDuckGose]

The NYY went an extra year to get the deal done. No other team was willing to go 7. Kind of silly to compare the total value of a 7yr deal vs a bunch of speculated 6yr offers.

[jaysfan2014]

Still, it's incredibly risky. That deal could get really bad by the latter part of the contract, especially considering the mileage on Tanaka's arm already at 1315.0 IP. It's no wonder why most teams were willing only to go 5-6 years. Not to mention that he's mostly pitched against the equivalent of AAA/AAAA competition in Japan.

[G-Snarls]

Lind can actually pick it with the best of them. He just has no range and gets confused when he needs to throw the ball. /scouting

 

The metrics HATE Edwin. Both DRS and UZR think he's a -12 run defender through 1500 innings at 1B. Having him watched him on a daily basis for 4+ years now, I believe it. The man can absolutely rake, but he's a disaster everywhere defensively. He should be given the Ortiz/Butler treatment and just DH everyday IMO.

 

I think I agree. Only problem with that is if you try and let Lind start 140 games at first, it's probably more likely he ends up on the DL from his back. Really not sure what the best approach is with the two of them.

[jaysfan2014]

NY media giving comparisons and warnings about Tanaka potentially being a repeat of the Catfish Hunter situation if they overuse him:

 

http://www.nj.com/times-sports/index.ssf/2014/01/federovitch_yankees_must_prote.html

 

Note Catfish Hunter was overused as heavily as Tanaka was in Japan, and this was before heavy bullpen specialization and usage. Pitchers are also weaker in stamina compared to when Catfish Hunter was pitching.

[P2F]

Still, it's incredibly risky. That deal could get really bad by the latter part of the contract, especially considering the mileage on Tanaka's arm already at 1315.0 IP. It's no wonder why most teams were willing only to go 5-6 years. Not to mention that he's mostly pitched against the equivalent of AAA/AAAA competition in Japan.

 

It could look really bad by THIS season. We have no idea how Tanaka will perform in the MLB - he could easily end up having an Irabu-type career.

 

Then again, he could take the league by storm a la Darvish.

 

So much risk.

[Stangstag]

Not necessarily an overpayment when you consider differences in taxes. In terms of what the player takes home, their probably isn't a big difference between the Yankees offer and the Diamondbacks, assuming of course that these are accurate.

 

Lol what? This is complete ********

[KingKat]

Lol what? This is complete ********

 

Are there not different tax rates from state to state? Isn't New York one of the highest?

[berenjenareturns]

NY media giving comparisons and warnings about Tanaka potentially being a repeat of the Catfish Hunter situation if they overuse him:

 

http://www.nj.com/times-sports/index.ssf/2014/01/federovitch_yankees_must_prote.html

 

Note Catfish Hunter was overused as heavily as Tanaka was in Japan, and this was before heavy bullpen specialization and usage. Pitchers are also weaker in stamina compared to when Catfish Hunter was pitching.

 

You seem to be in denial stage still Haha....looking for as much negative thoughts and articles on the Tanaka deal to make yourself feel better about the Blue Jays situation. It's ok man.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Read recently the NHL makes as much money on a per game basis as the MLB. They're not irrelevant.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10354114/harris-poll-nfl-most-popular-mlb-2nd

 

The slant being its Americans who were polled.

[jaysfan2014]

What they don't consider is that Tanaka's K rate has declined since the 2011 season, which is concerning. Oliver is way off.. did they even see his numbers for Rakuten the last few years? If his fastball is as flat as some scouting reports have said, he is going to get lit up in the AL East. He can get away with most of his stuff in Rakuten, but do that in MLB and he'll get destroyed.

 

Yu Darvish has gotten better in recent years, and has better stuff than Tanaka, at a lower price than what Tanaka got.

[berenjenareturns]

What they don't consider is that Tanaka's K rate has declined since the 2011 season, which is concerning. Oliver is way off.. did they even see his numbers for Rakuten the last few years? If his fastball is as flat as some scouting reports have said, he is going to get lit up in the AL East. He can get away with most of his stuff in Rakuten, but do that in MLB and he'll get destroyed.

 

Yu Darvish has gotten better in recent years, and has better stuff than Tanaka, at a lower price than what Tanaka got.

 

You are really trying too hard now.

 

His hits per 9 inning have gotten better. Averages around 1.3/1.4 BB/9. His WHIP decreased. He had an 1.27 ERA in 212 innings. He also had a 1.27 ERA in 2011... along with a 1.87 ERA in 2012....Oh he also has only allowed 18 homeruns in his last 611 innings (0.3 homeruns allowed per 9). Tanaka has yet to hit his prime (He is only 25 years old) and you already expecting him to decline Haha.

[Angrioter]

You are really trying too hard now.

 

His hits per 9 inning have gotten better. Averages around 1.3/1.4 BB/9. His WHIP decreased. He had an 1.27 ERA in 212 innings. He also had a 1.27 ERA in 211 in 226.1 innings....along with a 1.87 ERA in 2012....Oh he also has only allowed 18 homeruns in his last 611 innings (0.3 homeruns allowed per 9). Tanaka has yet to hit his prime (He is only 25 years old) and you already expecting him to decline Haha.

 

Mi hermano Dominicano.

 

Recuerda que el desempeño de Matsuzaka fue igual de bueno que el Tanaka.

Tony Blanco y Bladimir Balentien en el Baseball de MLB seria talento de AAA; en Japón estos hombres son dos de los mejores bateadores de la liga.

[jaysfan2014]

You forgot to mention that his BB/9IP rose last year as well. Also, some pitches that are strikes in Japan won't be called those in the MLB.

 

And a pitcher like this with a heavy workload.. wasn't there a certain pitcher named Dwight Gooden, who began to break down at age 25 due to overuse in his young career.

[jaysfan2014]

Exactly. Tanaka might be able to get away with his stuff against AAAA sluggers in the Japanese league, but he won't have the same luck in the MLB.

 

And we all remember how much of a bust Matsuzaka was.. even his rookie season was terrible, despite his strong seasons in 2007 and 2008, his FIPs were frequently very poor, showing that he was actually a terrible pitcher in the MLB.

 

BTW, FIP ratings:

 

Excellent 2.90

Great 3.25

Above Average 3.75

Average 4.00

Below Average 4.20

Poor 4.50

Awful 5.00

 

Dice-K always ranked towards the bottom end of this range during his entire time in Boston.

Also, Tanaka's best season by FIP was in 2012. Perhaps he's already peaked?

[jaysfan2014]

From a recent article in Baseball America, here's their take on Tanaka:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/whos-better-masahiro-tanaka-or-yu-darvish/

 

It does warn about his fastball being potentially flat and his slider being a risk for being left up in the zone, where it could get hit for HRs, especially at Yankee Stadium, compared to Yu Darvish, who has better movement on his fastball.

[Smedley Butler]

[Yankee fandom]

 

Seriously though, I think you guys are going to be alright this year. I expect the rotation to be the Yanks' strength, but their lineup looks quite old and/or fragile in most spots, and who in the batting order isn't into their decline phase of their careers? I don't trust that batting order to stay healthy, and almost exclusively, their best seasons have already happened. All told, just polling my gut and off the top of my head, I expect you guys to win around 88 games and miss the playoffs.

 

They're an unbalanced team now. In their recent glory years from '96 to the recent past, most of their stars were homegrown, supplemented with the best FA's money could buy. Now it's just all FA's with no farm to speak of.

[Smedley Butler]

Exactly.

 

You forgot to sign out and sign back in with one of your sock puppets before you replied to yourself here.

[jaysfan2014]

Yes, the batting order won't be good. The pitching staff is being badly overrated, though, since there are unknowns on Tanaka, CC Sabathia is already in his decline phase and is difficult to trust as a #2 starter. Kuroda is a tough call due to his awful 2nd half, Nova is an enigma, and who knows what they'll get out of Nuno, Pineda and Phelps (although Phelps may end up in the pen with so much uncertainty in the rotation and bullpen forcing the Yankees to carry both Phelps and Warren as long-men.)