The one and only Masahiro Tanaka posting and bidding thread

[GD]

sign both .......

 

good luck w/ that lol

[Angrioter]

sign both .......

 

With Tanaka's money we could extend Lawrie, Rasmus and sign Ubaldo.

5Ys/52M Rasmus; 5Ys/37.5M Lawrie and 4Ys/55M Ubaldo lol

[Abomination]

good luck w/ that lol

 

Yeah, it would be awesome though! We'd basically have 5 high end pitchers, each with an unique repertoire.

[Abomination]

With Tanaka's money we could extend Lawrie, Rasmus and sign Ubaldo.

5Ys/52M Rasmus; 5Ys/37.5M Lawrie and 4Ys/55M Ubaldo lol

 

Rasmus would probably be more like 4/52, but that's a good point.

[DuckDuckGose]

When are you going back to Lipchitz? Seriously man, Old School is better.

 

Probably never haha but Gose has been letting me down so I may have to switch it up soon.

[Anemic0ffense]

With Tanaka's money we could extend Lawrie, Rasmus and sign Ubaldo.

5Ys/52M Rasmus; 5Ys/37.5M Lawrie and 4Ys/55M Ubaldo lol

 

Why are we extending Lawrie? Can the guy hit first? Yes, his rookie year was like gangbusters, but he wasn't that impressive last year to warrant an extension... You can't just shell out based off potential. That's how we got stuck with Romero/Lind. Guys like Longoria were more "can't miss" types. Lawrie can still be good, but I don't think he's worth an extension this early.

[GD]

Rule #1 of being a Blue Jays fan. If a fan proposal, at any point contains,

 

Yeah, it would be awesome though!

 

it will never, ever happen. Nothing actually awesome happens to Blue Jays fans.

[Brenner]

Rasmus would probably be more like 4/52, but that's a good point.

 

I don't think Rasmus look at anything under 4/60, and at his age its more likely 5/75. With a decent year he is looking 6/100 in the FA market.

[Abomination]

I don't think Rasmus look at anything under 4/60, and at his age its more likely 5/75. With a decent year he is looking 6/100 in the FA market.

 

Possibly not, but if it covered next year as one of the years there'd definitely be some value in him doing it (it would essentially be equal to 4/60). He'd be a FA again at age 31 while guaranteeing himself a nice payday until then.

[Angrioter]

Why are we extending Lawrie? Can the guy hit first? Yes, his rookie year was like gangbusters, but he wasn't that impressive last year to warrant an extension... You can't just shell out based off potential. That's how we got stuck with Romero/Lind. Guys like Longoria were more "can't miss" types. Lawrie can still be good, but I don't think he's worth an extension this early.

 

Gose, Pillar, Sierra are s***

From 2015, BlueJays's OF will look empty.

[Abomination]

Gose, Pillar, Sierra are s***

From 2015, BlueJays's OF will look empty.

 

I'm kind of hoping the Yankees jerk around Gardner this year, and we can sign him at a reasonable price to replace Rasmus.

[Anemic0ffense]

I'm kind of hoping the Yankees jerk around Gardner this year

 

http://img.pandawhale.com/51394-George-Takei-oh-my-gif-ltT3.gif

[Lawrie22]

If I'm AA I would bring Kawasaki to any formal meeting with Tanaka to help convince him to play in Toronto. Kawasaki can tell him how much he loves the city and how well the fans have responded to him and try and really sell the jays to tanaka. In regards to a contract I think tanaka could be that "right deal" guy AA has hinted at all offseason and he may be willing to offer 6 years.

[Key22]

So here is the Ninja plan.

 

$119/7 year contract ($17million a season - we have to go $17/7 IMO just to talk to the guy). PLUS $1 million bonus for a top 5 Cy Young finish in each year and $500k for all-star selection and $500k for 180 innings. If this is met the contract would be $19million a season up to a possible $133/7.

 

Then there is a 7 year vesting option that is basically a rollover of the first contract. If he throws 1190 innings (170 average per year) and finishes in the top 10 in Cy Young in 5 of the first 7 years then the second $119/7 year contract automatically kicks in with the same bonus. Further a $4 million vesting bonus will be awarded.

 

Total contract if he meets all bonus markers would be $270 million over 14 years. Given his size shape and age - it would take him to 39 years old. The last three years might be ugly but there are plenty of geezers out there having no trouble (Colon, Kuroda, Dickey).

 

It's a bit risky but there is the escape at 7 years and let's face it if the option vests he would be one terrific pitcher being a continual Cy young vote getter. A possible $270 million/14 years is the way it would read in the press. Tough to turn down.

[Chappy]

So here is the Ninja plan.

 

$119/7 year contract ($17million a season - we have to go $17/7 IMO just to talk to the guy). PLUS $1 million bonus for a top 5 Cy Young finish in each year and $500k for all-star selection and $500k for 180 innings. If this is met the contract would be $19million a season up to a possible $133/7.

 

Then there is a 7 year vesting option that is basically a rollover of the first contract. If he throws 1190 innings (170 average per year) and finishes in the top 10 in Cy Young in 5 of the first 7 years then the second $119/7 year contract automatically kicks in with the same bonus. Further a $4 million vesting bonus will be awarded.

 

Total contract if he meets all bonus markers would be $270 million over 14 years. Given his size shape and age - it would take him to 39 years old. The last three years might be ugly but there are plenty of geezers out there having no trouble (Colon, Kuroda, Dickey).

 

It's a bit risky but there is the escape at 7 years and let's face it if the option vests he would be one terrific pitcher being a continual Cy young vote getter. A possible $270 million/14 years is the way it would read in the press. Tough to turn down.

 

Are you insane?

[KingKat]

Here's a question... Is there any actual reason to like Tanaka? It seems like most people on the board have him as the bar none best pitcher available but I'm not sure why exactly. We all know how great Darvish is and with the benefit of a lot of hindsight, it's clear that not signing him was an opportunity was wasted but that's water under the bridge. Signing Tanaka won't fix that and maybe this is just me being pessimistic but I wonder if signing him might actually be compounding the mistakes. I mean what do we even know about him? He has nice stats but the scouting reports and the statistical profile all indicate that he's not in the Darvish tier. Do we even know that he's better than Garza or Jimenez or even (gasp) Santana? The only thing we know for sure is that he'll probably cost more.

 

It seems like the main selling point for Tanaka is that you can wish cast on him. We know about the limitations of the other free agents. Just because we're less familiar with Tanaka's limitations doesn't mean he necessary has less of them and he certainly has cost going against him. It's kind of like how it's way easier to like prospects when they are really young then when they are in AAA and they have less projection (there's even one idiot poster on this board who votes for Miguel Castro in every single Blue Jays prospect pool).

[Abomination]

Here's a question... Is there any actual reason to like Tanaka? It seems like most people on the board have him as the bar none best pitcher available but I'm not sure why exactly. We all know how great Darvish is and with the benefit of a lot of hindsight, it's clear that not signing him was an opportunity was wasted but that's water under the bridge. Signing Tanaka won't fix that and maybe this is just me being pessimistic but I wonder if signing him might actually be compounding the mistakes. I mean what do we even know about him? He has nice stats but the scouting reports and the statistical profile all indicate that he's not in the Darvish tier. Do we even know that he's better than Garza or Jimenez or even (gasp) Santana? The only thing we know for sure is that he'll probably cost more.

 

It seems like the main selling point for Tanaka is that you can wish cast on him. We know about the limitations of the other free agents. Just because we're less familiar with Tanaka's limitations doesn't mean he necessary has less of them and he certainly has cost going against him. It's kind of like how it's way easier to like prospects when they are really young then when they are in AAA and they have less projection (there's even one idiot poster on this board who votes for Miguel Castro in every single Blue Jays prospect pool).

 

To like Tanaka? Absolutely. To like him at ~20M/year? That's a little harder. He seems to profile very closely to a Kuroda / Iwakuma type of pitcher, but with the advantage that he's only 25 and could improve past that benchmark. It's hard to see Tanaka being much less than a #3, and probably not more than a high end #2. There's no question that he's not on the Darvish tier.

 

I really do think AA will be all over him (which doesn't mean he'll get him). We know AA wanted to trade for Iwakuma pretty badly which further bolsters that imo.

[Olerud363]

Meh, last year felt pretty awesome going in.

 

Since 93 there seems to be an almost supernatural pattern of no hope. The better the team looks the quicker they get out of it.

 

The teams in 97 (Clemens year) and 2013 looked pretty good preseason... and were crushed regular season.

[Olerud363]

Here's a question... Is there any actual reason to like Tanaka? It seems like most people on the board have him as the bar none best pitcher available but I'm not sure why exactly. We all know how great Darvish is and with the benefit of a lot of hindsight, it's clear that not signing him was an opportunity was wasted but that's water under the bridge. Signing Tanaka won't fix that and maybe this is just me being pessimistic but I wonder if signing him might actually be compounding the mistakes. I mean what do we even know about him? He has nice stats but the scouting reports and the statistical profile all indicate that he's not in the Darvish tier. Do we even know that he's better than Garza or Jimenez or even (gasp) Santana? The only thing we know for sure is that he'll probably cost more.

 

It seems like the main selling point for Tanaka is that you can wish cast on him. We know about the limitations of the other free agents. Just because we're less familiar with Tanaka's limitations doesn't mean he necessary has less of them and he certainly has cost going against him. It's kind of like how it's way easier to like prospects when they are really young then when they are in AAA and they have less projection (there's even one idiot poster on this board who votes for Miguel Castro in every single Blue Jays prospect pool).

 

Some good points. From what I have heard he has a great splitter and great control. The wild card is how the control and command will play.

 

He projects as a number 2. But in terms of upside I think people see a little more... if the command plays you a have guy going deep into games, walking 30 per 200 innings, keeping the ball in the park if he hits his spots. So I think that's what people are seeing as the upside, better then Jiminez and Santana because he is walking half as many.

 

Hisashi Iwakuma and Korado have played very well. This guy is 25 and apparently a bit better. So take a look at those 2, make them 7 or 8 years younger and make them a bit better. That's the upside people are seeing.

[G-Snarls]

I'm kind of hoping the Yankees jerk around Gardner this year, and we can sign him at a reasonable price to replace Rasmus.

 

Sign me up for that

 

Trade Rasmus for good stuff then sign Gardner for ~ same money as we were gonna have to give Colby anyway

 

For some strange reason I don't think the Yankees realize how good Gardner actually is

[Muck Bartinez]

Sign me up for that

 

Trade Rasmus for good stuff then sign Gardner for ~ same money as we were gonna have to give Colby anyway

 

For some strange reason I don't think the Yankees realize how good Gardner actually is

 

A LF/CF of Gardner and Gose would probably save 30 runs a year. Too bad Gose's bat might be worth -20.

[DuckDuckGose]

A LF/CF of Gardner and Gose would probably save 30 runs a year. Too bad Gose's bat might be worth -20.

 

Gose would be in RF not LF and comparatively there isn't really any reason to believe he will be worth -20 runs with the bat since the other option is Melky, Pillar or Sierra.

[Muck Bartinez]

Gose would be in RF not LF and comparatively there isn't really any reason to believe he will be worth -20 runs with the bat since the other option is Melky, Pillar or Sierra.

 

No chance Bautista, the "leader" or "captain" of this team, is moved to LF for Gardner or Gose. I'll give you Pillar and Sierra, but I'd gamble on Gose being at least 15 runs worse offensively than Melky if they were given equal PA.

[GD]

Gardner LF Gose CF Bautista RF > Bautista LF Gardner CF Gose RF

 

And I don't think Jose moves to DH yet.

[Olerud363]

Are you insane?

 

I don't like calling people insane... I think this board is extremely overreactive. But occassionally the scorn is deserved.

 

The J.P. Arencibia for DH thread was the last thing this stupid. Although this seems more like the guy hasn't thought through the consequences.

 

He pitches 200+ innnings a year for 5 years finishing 5-10th in Cy Young. 100 innings in the sixth year but he is awful and then blows out his shoulder, major reconstruction needed, the bad kind of reconstruction where it doesn't quite ever get reconstructed, the kind that Duane Ward had, the kind that Halladay kindof just had.

 

Misses 14 months But he is able to drag himself out to the mound throwing 78 mph in September of the last year... 20 innings away from getting the option... 130 million on the line

[Muck Bartinez]

Gardner LF Gose CF Bautista RF > Bautista LF Gardner CF Gose RF

 

And I don't think Jose moves to DH yet.

 

I'm not saying it's a bad idea, I'm saying Gibby won't do it and AA wouldn't let it happen. Even if they both wanted to, Jose would probably pound his chest until he got his way.

[DuckDuckGose]

No chance Bautista, the "leader" or "captain" of this team, is moved to LF for Gardner or Gose. I'll give you Pillar and Sierra, but I'd gamble on Gose being at least 15 runs worse offensively than Melky if they were given equal PA.

 

Then ship him out because that's a piss-poor attitude and not someone you want leading your team.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Some good points. From what I have heard he has a great splitter and great control. The wild card is how the control and command will play.

 

He projects as a number 2. But in terms of upside I think people see a little more... if the command plays you a have guy going deep into games, walking 30 per 200 innings, keeping the ball in the park if he hits his spots. So I think that's what people are seeing as the upside, better then Jiminez and Santana because he is walking half as many.

 

Hisashi Iwakuma and Korado have played very well. This guy is 25 and apparently a bit better. So take a look at those 2, make them 7 or 8 years younger and make them a bit better. That's the upside people are seeing.

 

When you address the weakest part of your ball club ( durable starters with some top end possibility ), the value is greater then it would be for some teams. Even if Tanaka is somewhat disappointing, he'd likely help the club. If he was great ( a true #1 pitcher ) I like our chances to make the playoffs unless one of Bautista/EE/Reyes goes down most of the season. And Tanaka could really swing the AL East a lot depending on whether the Yankees or Jays get him. The Yankees seem weak pitching wise and their hitting may be good but then again it could be a Brooklyn Nets like situation that doesn't work out. Losing Cano is a problem, they signed a lot of guys to try to rectify. This could be the year the Yankees run out of magic trying to buy their way out of trouble.

[DuckDuckGose]

Some good points. From what I have heard he has a great splitter and great control. The wild card is how the control and command will play.

 

He projects as a number 2. But in terms of upside I think people see a little more... if the command plays you a have guy going deep into games, walking 30 per 200 innings, keeping the ball in the park if he hits his spots. So I think that's what people are seeing as the upside, better then Jiminez and Santana because he is walking half as many.

 

Hisashi Iwakuma and Korado have played very well. This guy is 25 and apparently a bit better. So take a look at those 2, make them 7 or 8 years younger and make them a bit better. That's the upside people are seeing.

 

The scouting reports bring visions of Latos to my mind. I'd gladly pay $120M for Latos if it meant that AA didn't sell the farm for another declining asset.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

The scouting reports bring visions of Latos to my mind. I'd gladly pay $120M for Latos if it meant that AA didn't sell the farm for another declining asset.

 

If we add a decent pitcher and still have Reyes/Rasmus/Bautista/EE/Lawrie/Lind as a core offence the team has real playoff chances. Much worse teams have had success, just need some luck and one or two players to be upside surprises. It wouldn't be shocking if Dickey, Morrow, or Stroman had good seasons. Hutch, Melky, Gose are longer shots but not absurd to think they might contribute far more then we expect.

 

Tanaka, Garza, Jiminez are all gambles but it's all fiscal risk . It may be you have to take on 2-3 "bad" contracts to compete now with all the

new money in the game. Teams like Oakland and Tampa Bay may find it harder to stay near the top within two years. Toronto needs to act like the big market team that it is or risk alienating the fan base as was happening in late 2012 when we basically fielded an AAA roster most games.

Publicizing strongly that he wanted to get a starter and not getting one would simply brand AA's chosen strategy since around June 2013 as a complete failure. He declined to add a bat or two, an alternate strategy that was very feasible if there exists no starting pitching on a palatable contract basis. Several of those bats were not outrageously expensive, it could have been done.

 

My opinion, any attempt to rebuild or act like a mid market team at this point will fail miserably in Toronto. There are reasons why the Yankees and Red Sox would rather spend money inefficiently as long as some of their acquisitions work out. A bad team in the AL East would be truly

horrible ( think Cubs or Twins in their worst years ), and Toronto will empty out the Dome in those circumstances. Raptors and Leafs will attract more interest and it would be dark ages for the Jays.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Cooler Heads Prevail