GM's Meetings Thread

[Olerud363]

The pendulum is rocketing back & forth here. BTS with the doom and gloom and you with the, our old and broken players are all gonna be healthy all year.

 

Let's all be realistic.

 

If you can find replacement level 2nd, catcher, and left... it is an 80 win team. Problem last year was those 3 positions were incredibly bad.

 

Bautista, Lawrie, Reyes, Colby, Lind will not average 150 games, it will be 120.

 

If people want to start at 80 and suggest a path to 90 I'm all ears. I think Cano and 3 other good minor moves would put the Jays in good position. But 2015 could be a mess. No chance at getting Cano anyway so I guess that is a silly discussion.

 

Kind of a mess. Need a blockbuster offseason to contend and this is after allready having a "blockbuster" offseason last year.

[G-Snarls]

A's sign Nick Punto for 1 year 2.75, with a 2.75 vesting option. Nice deal. Punto is coming off a 1.9 WAR season and seems to always contribute. Filling the roster with useful talent is something Beane usually does better than most GMs.

 

Yep. Not flashy but solid minor signings like this can make the difference between 85 and 90 wins, and therefore making the playoffs or not.

[HERPDERP]

Matt Kemp

+ entire salary

 

for

 

one of Sanchez/Stroman

 

yes/no?

[Ziggyy108]

No. Injury prone. Declining. Would be super risky with the Turf.

[Ziggyy108]

If going to take on a big salary OF id rather take a shot at Braun if Brewers wanna get rid of him.

[HERPDERP]

If going to take on a big salary OF id rather take a shot at Braun if Brewers wanna get rid of him.

 

I don't know man..sure we'd be getting a lot of talent but him and Lawrie?

 

I think the Dodgers are gonna have to trade one of Ethier/Kemp shortly.

 

Hmm I keep forgetting about Gose who will most likely replace Melky if he bring him as the DH (and E5 goes to 1B as Lind gets traded)

[Atothe]

No for me. I see Kemp as a negative-value asset.

 

Ditto, he is not a guy any smart gm should be targeting. That contract will be Vernon wells bad in a year or two

[TRM]

The scenario has the Dodgers paying his entire salary though.

 

I'd do it in a nano-second. Kemp has some monster seasons left in him IMO.

 

You own him in DDL, don't you?

[G-Snarls]

Matt Kemp

+ entire salary

 

for

 

one of Sanchez/Stroman

 

yes/no?

 

No. Too much decline since his MVP* year in 2011 to take on that salary.

[G-Snarls]

Hey, Steinbrenner! You can't have all of them!!

 

[G-Snarls]

F'n Yankees. They're going to do it again, and we all know it. Buy themselves an 88 win team via free agency.

[Ziggyy108]

Perfect time to swoop in and steal Cano.

 

Bring him in to play with his Dominican brothers. Lets gooooooo

[Sorrow]

Yep! I'm optimistic on all my DDL players, that's why I've acquired them

 

Kemp hit .324/.399/.586 in 2011 (8.4 WAR, 168 wRC+) and crushed it in his injury-shortened 2012 too. That level of offensive production doesn't just disappear, and especially not for a player entering his age-29 season. He has Hall of Fame tools. This is the perfect time to buy low.

 

Remember when JPR was talking to the Dodgers about a Wells for Bills and Kemp swap then f***ing ownership signed Wells to that monster deal? Wonderful memories.

[Nox]

That level of offensive production doesn't just disappear

 

It definitely can.

[Olerud363]

It definitely can.

 

If you took Vernon Wells age 23-29 and mixed it in with Matt Kemp seasons 23-29 you woulnd't know which ones were which...

 

except if you are maniac and you have them memorized or look at the strike-outs (Kemp strikes out twice as much).

 

Kemps top comparable is actually Raul Mondesi, Vernon Wells 3rd, George Bell in the top 10. Those guys were bad after 29.

[Angrioter]

[Ziggyy108]

 

It was pretty ridiculous when that guy went on the fan590 and started talking s*** about management being tired of Joey B complaining that the guys they brought in were making more money than him.

[Nox]

Wells has never had a season nearly as good as Kemp's 2011-12. He was a good player from 23-29. Kemp at times has been mediocre to poor, but he was also one of the best players in baseball in 2011-12. Wells has never been in that discussion.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=1326,5631

 

Uhoh

[Laika]

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=1326,5631

 

Uhoh

 

Wow

 

much graphs

 

very info

[Laika]

Kemp-Wells comp is my favourite thing ever.

[Nox]

Wow

 

much graphs

 

very info

 

You don't want to see the Paul Kariya/Stammer equivalent I just made.

[Nox]

But I tend to think that having a historic season (perhaps 8+ WAR) protects players from falling off at an early age, since it signifies they have a special level of skill in them. The thinking is that an elite season tells us more positive info about a player's talent than a string of decent seasons... I have no idea if this is backed up in the data though. I'll have to do some research.

 

Off the top of my head I'm not sure either. But I definitely am inclined to think you're wrong lol.

 

A .400 BABIP season can create an outlier 8 win season pretty easily.

[G-Snarls]

Lol

 

[G-Snarls]

[theblujay]

Sure... Sanchez + Stroman + ? + ??

 

Who the f*** is Casey stern

 

Stroman is that frontline starter.

[Atothe]

Wells has never had a season nearly as good as Kemp's 2011-12. He was a good player from 23-29. Kemp at times has been mediocre to poor, but he was also one of the best players in baseball in 2011-12. Wells has never been in that discussion.

 

You're beating a dead horse here, he will most likely never be 125 ops+ or higher guy again.

[Atothe]

http://gifatron.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/RRnhhqW.gif

 

http://gifatron.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/c9RtW.gif

[DuckDuckGose]

lol. Kemp could certainly be in fast decline.

 

But I tend to think that having a historic season (perhaps 8+ WAR) protects players from falling off at an early age, since it signifies they have a special level of skill in them. The thinking is that an elite season tells us more positive info about a player's talent than a string of decent seasons... I have no idea if this is backed up in the data though. I'll have to do some research.

 

Players to have an +8 fWAR over the last 5 years

 

2013

 

Trout - 10.4 WAR

 

2012

 

Trout - 10.0 WAR

 

2011

 

Ellsbury - 9.1 WAR

Kemp - 8.4 WAR

 

2010

 

Hamilton - 8.4 WAR

 

2009

 

Pujols - 8.7 WAR

Zobrist 8.5 WAR

Utley - 8.0 WAR

 

2008

 

Pujols - 8.6 WAR

Utley - 8.0 WAR

 

2007

AROD - 9.6 WAR

Wright - 8.4 WAR

Magglio Ordonez - 8.0 WAR

 

2006

Pujols - 8.2 WAR

 

2005

AROD - 8.8 WAR

 

Pujols, Utley, Magglio, AROD, and Hamilton all had sharp declines, it's conceivable that Kemp could too.

[ace3113]

Interesting quotes from Scott Boras about the Blue Jays.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/anthopoulous-rips-fabricated-bautista-rumour/

 

BORAS’ TAKE: Scott Boras sees a potentially bright future for the Toronto Blue Jays.

 

“As to what makes that turn there is something that is yet to happen and maybe it will,” the super agent said Wednesday.

The Blue Jays haven’t had a Boras Corp. client on the big-league roster since Brad Wilkerson in 2008 and haven’t drafted a player the agency has advised since James Paxton, who didn’t sign and was later redrafted by the Seattle Mariners, in 2009.

 

When that fact was pointed out to Boras, he quipped: “Maybe that’s the turn we’re talking about.”

 

Asked if he believes the Blue Jays may have intentionally turned away from his clients as a result of the failed Paxton negotiation, he said: “I’ve had constant communication with both Paul (Beeston) and AA (Alex Anthopoulos) throughout. It’s not anything to do with not talking, maybe just not the right fits.”

 

Boras represents two of the off-season’s prime free agents in outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo, neither of whom is on the Blue Jays’ radar.

“The Blue Jays are Canada’s team, they’re well-armed with a very successful company behind them, certainly Paul Beeston knows how to put together a winner,” he said. “There’s a process there that’s very ready for success.”

[z3r0s]

Interesting quotes from Scott Boras about the Blue Jays.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/anthopoulous-rips-fabricated-bautista-rumour/

 

This puts Hurl in a very precarious position