Can Ryan Goins stick?

[saskjayfan]

Read this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

 

then this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9807&position=2B

 

Scroll down to advanced fielding. See his UZR and UZR 150

 

Now, looks at leaderboards at 2B over the past any number of years and arrive at the conclusion that Goins playing at last year's level of defense is not going to happen. If you come to any other conclusion, then the force is not strong with you.

 

so is goins an average defender or what...he looked pretty good especially considering he plays on turf.....he was a lot better than maicer and boni....I don't have to look up any statistics to come to that conclusion..

[connorp]

FanGraphs! I honestly haven't looked at BR for a player like ever.

 

I don't know if Fangraphs always had contract info, I used to always look it up on BR.. and BR has the bio that's kind of cool where it says where they were drafted and awards they got it minors and such.. kind of a neat read.. not saying its better in any way for stats

[RIPEXPOS]

did you look at the leaderboards? Cuz 10-15 would put him as one the top 2-4 qualified defensive second basemen in all of baseball in pretty much any given year, sometimes the #1.

 

That's lofty expectations.

 

He's pretty damn good with the glove. If he were to play all year, I would think it plausible he would be thought of as a top 10 defender at his position, and perhaps he could sneak into the top 5. He really is that good.

[connorp]

Ah yes, the eye test! 0% accuracy rating

 

Idk if UZR in a very sss is much better.. well, better than the guy that watches him on tv a few games anyway

[RIPEXPOS]

But when both UZR and the eye test say a guy is fantastic, perhaps he is actually really good?

[Abomination]

B-R has better data on players in the minors, including some splits.

[RIPEXPOS]

The eye test means jack s***

 

It can't perceive talent? In that case, throw all scouting reports out the window!

[Abomination]

I use MLC for minors for anything more in depth. Still haven't needed to go to BR.

 

Hmmm, hadn't been there in a long time. Thanks.

[connorp]

The eye test means jack s***

 

Depends who the eye is. Not Joe Schmo.. but personally I would rather go with a good scout's opinion over UZR if it's say a 20 game sample size with no previous data. UZR could tell you an atrocious defender was GG caliber. OR vice versa

[connorp]

I use MLC for minors for anything more in depth. Still haven't needed to go to BR.

 

Ha. That's prob because you decided not to patronize the site out of principle:)

I personally like using it for a newer player I don't know for the reasons I mentioned plus what Abom mentioned.

[Angrioter]

Goins' ceiling is Darwin Barney.

 

I don't think so. Barney is the best 2B defender since 2011. Goins SSS

[GD]

But when both UZR and the eye test say a guy is fantastic, perhaps he is actually really good?

 

His UZR didn't have a big enough sample to say he's good yet, though. The eye test obviously says yes but it's a very small defensive sample. So we're not saying his UZR is good yet.

[saskjayfan]

The eye test means jack s***

 

that's okay...in 5 or 6 years we'll have a sample size large enough to get some idea of what his defense will bring..although even after 5 or 6 years the margin of error associated with those defensive statistics will still have a pretty large margin of error...lol...I can't wait to find out if his defensive skills are better than maicer...

[connorp]

More like 2-3 years. And at least they tell you something eventually. The eye test has resulted in one of the worst full-time defensive shortstops in the history baseball not only accruing 22 000+ innings at the position, but winning multiple gold gloves. Dem jump throws.

 

If RG plays enough for a sample size to be relevant.. well, that's not good.. hopefully its for MIN

[connorp]

ZiPS thinks LF is a bigger hole than 2B

 

 

Full projections tomorrow.

 

 

Mmm.. I will stick take the LF situation in a heartbeat.. there's clear upside over projections that is lacking at 2b

[RIPEXPOS]

^Not mention there's a bunch of guys not listed who will provide wins.

 

Also it's not just LF, it's DH, and it's two SPs....

 

We need to sign one of Garza/Jimenez/Santana, and sign the right one. That's the important task at hand.

[Laika]

Kevin Seitzer should be a Q-ring bracelet salesman.

 

for f***s sake.

[ILDD]

What is Seitzer supposed to say?

 

"I think Goins is a crappy hitter and he's got no chance of providing real value other than as a defensive specialist"? Of course he's going to say the right things and try and Goins some confidence going into the season.

[LunchBox]

"Alcides Escobar hit [low .200s] in Kansas City and they were like, 'What do you think he can hit?'" Seitzer said. "I said .280-.290. They said, 'If you can get him to hit even .250, that would be huge.' I was like, 'I'm telling you, he has special hands. He just has a thing where he loops and collapses [his swing], but if I can get him down and through, get that loop out of his swing, he's going to have a chance to hit .280, .290, because he has great hands.'

 

"He went out and hit [.293] the very next year. I see Ryan Goins having that potential. Seeing him apply in a game has yet to be seen, but the adjustments that he made and the drills that I put him through last weekend when he hadn't seen any live pitching very much impressed me."

 

So using Escobar's 2012-2013 seasons as a template, in the best case scenario: Goins can be a not-quite league average hitter for one year fuelled by an inflated BABIP then devolve into the worst hitter in baseball the following season....f***ing eh!

[GD]

It would be so nice if Goins could hit.

[Jays]

Bonifacio and Izturis couldn't hit nor play defense. Goins can at least play defense.

 

Welcome to the board! What's your opinion on JP Arencibia?

[Jays]

He is going to be cut from Texas by June since they won't put up with a catcher who can't play catcher and hits like this

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qIGbbM4gEM

 

Ok, you can stay.

[GD]

It's kind of amazing that even people who have worked in baseball their whole lives can be so ignorant when it comes to interpreting what they see on the field. Is it too much to ask that a major league hitting coach can spot a BABIP-fueled spike in batting average? I get that he's not going to tell the media that Escobar was lucky in 2012, but he looks like an idiot giving himself a pat on the back for it.

 

Too lazy to do this myself. What were his xBABIPs both of those years? If there was a true-talent change in BABIP, then maybe he's not totally ignorant.

[KingKat]

"Alcides Escobar hit [low .200s] in Kansas City and they were like, 'What do you think he can hit?'" Seitzer said. "I said .280-.290. They said, 'If you can get him to hit even .250, that would be huge.' I was like, 'I'm telling you, he has special hands. He just has a thing where he loops and collapses [his swing], but if I can get him down and through, get that loop out of his swing, he's going to have a chance to hit .280, .290, because he has great hands.'

 

"He went out and hit [.293] the very next year. I see Ryan Goins having that potential. Seeing him apply in a game has yet to be seen, but the adjustments that he made and the drills that I put him through last weekend when he hadn't seen any live pitching very much impressed me."

 

Alcides Escobar:

 

2011 = 4.2% BB rate, 12.2% K rate, 254/290/343, 0.285 BABIP

2012 = 4.2% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, 293/331/390, 0.344 BABIP

 

It's kind of amazing that even people who have worked in baseball their whole lives can be so ignorant when it comes to interpreting what they see on the field. Is it too much to ask that a major league hitting coach can spot a BABIP-fueled spike in batting average? I get that he's not going to tell the media that Escobar was lucky in 2012, but he looks like an idiot giving himself a pat on the back for it.

 

Slow down there... That's not an entirely fair analysis. You have dismissed the possibility of an improvement in quality of contact and just assumed luck. He had a 5% increase in line drive percentage and a correspoing 5$ drop in fly ball percentage. That has to account for some of it and on the surface, it's consistent with what Seitzer is saying.

[DuckDuckGose]

Goins isn't going to swipe 20 bags like Alcides, he doesn't play SS (2B is a more offensive position and has a lower positional run adjustment), and that comparison is best case highly unlikely scenario.

[DuckDuckGose]

And I would rather have $1,000,000 a year in salary but I will take what I can get all things considered.

 

Goins is not ideal, but he is an upgrade over what we had.

 

I'd rather have Kawasaki. At least he's funny.

[DuckDuckGose]

Too lazy to do this myself. What were his xBABIPs both of those years? If there was a true-talent change in BABIP, then maybe he's not totally ignorant.

 

The .293 AVG year his BABIP was .344, his carer BABIP is .293.

[Smokey]

Slow down there... That's not an entirely fair analysis. You have dismissed the possibility of an improvement in quality of contact and just assumed luck. He had a 5% increase in line drive percentage and a correspoing 5$ drop in fly ball percentage. That has to account for some of it and on the surface, it's consistent with what Seitzer is saying.

 

Well considering his immediate regression the following year, I think it's safe to assume that luck was indeed a major factor...

 

2013 = 3.0% BB 13.1% K rate, .234/.259/.300, 0.264 BABIP

[DuckDuckGose]

Slow down there... That's not an entirely fair analysis. You have dismissed the possibility of an improvement in quality of contact and just assumed luck. He had a 5% increase in line drive percentage and a correspoing 5$ drop in fly ball percentage. That has to account for some of it and on the surface, it's consistent with what Seitzer is saying.

 

The LD rate was identical. The biggest difference is Alcides slapped the ball on the ground more in '12.

[KingKat]

Well considering his immediate regression the following year, I think it's safe to assume that luck was indeed a major factor...

 

2013 = 3.0% BB 13.1% K rate, .234/.259/.300, 0.264 BABIP

 

But the quality of contact argument still holds for the following year. His line drive percentage stayed the same but his fly balls went way up, 7% (at the cost of his ground balls). Players with lots of speed and no power are obviously going to lose BABIP if they do that. If we want to analyze this, let's do it right. Let's not do fall in to the hitter's BABIP = luck fallacy.