Can Ryan Goins stick?

[KingKat]

Do you think Janssen plus Happ for Ackley works?

 

SEA get a (Capital C) Closer plus pitching depth and give up a blocked prospect.

 

TOR get a 2B and save about $8M to spend on pitching.

 

Both teams look to benefit in my eyes.

 

I all depends on much faith you want to put in Ackley's 2nd half turnaround. Overall, his numbers were a bad as ever. But the splits break it down as extra terrible in the 1st and 800 OPS hitter in the 2nd. The later would be killer at 2B if it's for real but if the's the same old Ackley, you just gave up Janssen just for salary relief. I think the Mariners will prefer to find out for themselves then trade Ackley just as he looks like he's coming around. Fair trade on paper but I think the Mariners pass.

[Abomination]

I all depends on much faith you want to put in Ackley's 2nd half turnaround. Overall, his numbers were a bad as ever. But the splits break it down as extra terrible in the 1st and 800 OPS hitter in the 2nd. The later would be killer at 2B if it's for real but if the's the same old Ackley, you just gave up Janssen just for salary relief. I think the Mariners will prefer to find out for themselves then trade Ackley just as he looks like he's coming around. Fair trade on paper but I think the Mariners pass.

 

I don't think the Mariners want to trade Ackley anyhow as he can back up center as well. It seems more likely that they'll look to trade Franklin, but Janssen and Happ wouldn't get it done.

[Sammy225]

Spring Training coming fast and Goins is still our starting 2B.

 

What are you trying to scare me.

[GD]

Have no fear, Chris Getz is here!

 

Good thing we didn't acquire Logan Forsythe or anyone.

[GD]

I made that comp some time ago.

[RIPEXPOS]

I actually don't mind Goins at all. He's cheap and he plays tremendous D. Look at the rest of our roster, if guys do what they are supposed to do, our lineup is the least of our concerns.

 

And I think there's potential for a decent/solid batting average from him, something in the .260s, and which given his D isn't the end of the world. Give him an offseason with major league experience under his belt, he's the type who will figure out how to be a major league regular.

[RIPEXPOS]

Knowing that batting average will be empty, a .260 batting average is very unspectacular. He's a bench player and a decent 25th man, but he shouldn't be anything more.

 

I disagree. Given the makeup and structure of this team, we can afford an all D second baseman who's getting paid peanuts. Giving up an asset to make a trade for an overpaid vet who might not do much more than Goins isn't worth the trouble.

 

Let Goins play, worst case he gives you great defense (and can perhaps maybe surprise with the average). Then spend the money on one of Jimenez/Garza/Santana. For a team stretched out near it's financial limit (and having given away as many prospects as we did last offseason), the resources are better spent where it's needed (a legit starter)

[GD]

The extremely likely outcome is his defense regresses and he shows jack s*** with the bat.

 

Fixed.

[Abomination]

You don't think basically having a pitcher bat everyday hurts this team?

 

I think there's a number of people who feel his bat can be respectable. He's certainly not going to be a stud offensively, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him put up 80-85 wRC+ or higher. He may not do it, but I think he has the ability to.

[RIPEXPOS]

Why would his defence regress? Is he slowing down physically? When does defence regress in a mid 20s player? The defence is legit, and it's tremendous, and it's something that can be counted on to be there every day.

 

The bat is not as bad as you make it, he's not a pitcher, he knows how to advance the runner and do those things. Does he walk much or hit homers? Admittedly no, but he has a nice swing and makes hard contact (above average LD%). He can hit for an average BA and give us tremendous D for dirt cheap. Spend the money elsewhere.

[saskjayfan]

Spring Training coming fast and Goins is still our starting 2B.

 

I'm glad this thread is heating up again....I don't think it's been properly debated..lol

[GD]

You wouldn't be surprised? I would be very, very surprised. If he can put up an 80-85 wRC+ that would be nice, but I really don't think he will.

 

I would be very surprised.

 

Goins would be worth 0.6 fWAR/600 PA on an 85 wRC+ and neutral baserunning /not factoring in defense/. So if you project Goins for like +5 UZR, then that's 1.1 WAR/600 or so. And if this is one of the best case scenarios, we're f***ed lol.

[saskjayfan]

I would be very surprised.

 

Goins would be worth 0.6 fWAR/600 PA on an 85 wRC+ and neutral baserunning /not factoring in defense/. So if you project Goins for like +5 UZR, then that's 1.1 WAR/600 or so. And if this is one of the best case scenarios, we're f***ed lol.

 

goins isn't going to get 600 PA

[saskjayfan]

Would everyone agree that the best scenario right now with what we have would be Izturis starting 2B, Kawasaki on the bench and Goins in AAA as depth?

 

still might happen...who knows...let's see how spring training goes.....the fate of the jays is far more likely to be the play of their starting pitchers than it is from a guy batting in the number 9 hole no matter who it ends up being.

[theblujay]

I actually don't mind Goins at all. He's cheap and he plays tremendous D. Look at the rest of our roster, if guys do what they are supposed to do, our lineup is the least of our concerns.

 

And I think there's potential for a decent/solid batting average from him, something in the .260s, and which given his D isn't the end of the world. Give him an offseason with major league experience under his belt, he's the type who will figure out how to be a major league regular.

 

What I've been saying for 100 pages

[theblujay]

Why would his defence regress? Is he slowing down physically? When does defence regress in a mid 20s player? The defence is legit, and it's tremendous, and it's something that can be counted on to be there every day.

 

The bat is not as bad as you make it, he's not a pitcher, he knows how to advance the runner and do those things. Does he walk much or hit homers? Admittedly no, but he has a nice swing and makes hard contact (above average LD%). He can hit for an average BA and give us tremendous D for dirt cheap. Spend the money elsewhere.

 

Cause these guys are all pessimists with their minds made up that he sucks. Its sickening

[RIPEXPOS]

People forget, but before last year, Goins had 3 straight season in the minors where he hit for a good average and had solid/good walk rates as well.

[theblujay]

I would be very surprised.

 

Goins would be worth 0.6 fWAR/600 PA on an 85 wRC+ and neutral baserunning /not factoring in defense/. So if you project Goins for like +5 UZR, then that's 1.1 WAR/600 or so. And if this is one of the best case scenarios, we're f***ed lol.

 

Is UZR an average or does it sum over a season. Because he had higher than 5 in the month+ he played last year.

[Abomination]

I would be very surprised.

 

Goins would be worth 0.6 fWAR/600 PA on an 85 wRC+ and neutral baserunning /not factoring in defense/. So if you project Goins for like +5 UZR, then that's 1.1 WAR/600 or so. And if this is one of the best case scenarios, we're f***ed lol.

 

A best case scenario would be closer to Darwin Barney defense (he's probably not quite AT that level), which is way more than +5 UZR.

[theblujay]

People forget, but before last year, Goins had 3 straight season in the minors where he hit for a good average and had solid/good walk rates as well.

 

I'm just noticing now, but his walk rate was around 6-7% throughout the minors and then only 1.7% in his limited time in the majors last year. So maybe the regression goes both ways?

[theblujay]

How about trade Reyes, Kawaski at 2B, Goins at SS. Full blown rebuild

[theblujay]

Goins on a .280 AVG is still s*****. Average means nothing.

 

Defense does

[RIPEXPOS]

Goins on a .280 AVG is still s*****. Average means nothing.

 

Give him a similar walk rate to what he showed in his minor league career, and he'd have an OBP near .340 if he hit .280. Considering the plus D, and the dirt cheap salary, I'd take that in a split second on this team.

[RIPEXPOS]

Yes it does, no one should be arguing anything with average though. Use wRC+.

 

If BR had advanced stats like that for minor league performance, sure. Or you can use the small sample size of a rookie who had 130 PAs.

[Abomination]

If BR had advanced stats like that for minor league performance, sure. Or you can use the small sample size of a rookie who had 130 PAs.

 

Use Fangraphs.

[RIPEXPOS]

Do you think that Goins is capable of hitting .280 with a .340 OBP? lool

 

I never said .280, I said .265. .265/.325 with his D aint bad at all. And again, dude is being payed peanuts! Those funds saved could be applied elsewhere.

[John_Havok]

Is UZR an average or does it sum over a season. Because he had higher than 5 in the month+ he played last year.

 

Read this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

 

then this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9807&position=2B

 

Scroll down to advanced fielding. See his UZR and UZR 150

 

Now, looks at leaderboards at 2B over the past any number of years and arrive at the conclusion that Goins playing at last year's level of defense is not going to happen. If you come to any other conclusion, then the force is not strong with you.

[GD]

Can you try that on a 65 wRC+ ?

 

I got -2.5 fWAR with defense and baserunning neutral. I think that's off.

 

goins isn't going to get 600 PA

 

Way to entirely miss my point.

 

Is UZR an average or does it sum over a season. Because he had higher than 5 in the month+ he played last year.

 

UZR is a sum. UZR/150 is the average of it.

[theblujay]

Read this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

 

then this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9807&position=2B

 

Scroll down to advanced fielding. See his UZR and UZR 150

 

Now, looks at leaderboards at 2B over the past any number of years and arrive at the conclusion that Goins playing at last year's level of defense is not going to happen. If you come to any other conclusion, then the force is not strong with you.

 

I don't expect him to put up 33 UZR/150, but around 10-15 isn't unreasonable

[John_Havok]

did you look at the leaderboards? Cuz 10-15 would put him as one the top 2-4 qualified defensive second basemen in all of baseball in pretty much any given year, sometimes the #1.

 

That's lofty expectations.