Can Ryan Goins stick?

[Angrioter]

I want Espinosa for 2B next year. Anyone know what the Nats would want from us?

 

Brett Cecil......everyone want or "Lefty Ace-reliever".

By the Jeremy Affeldt contract and the rumours of Javier Lopez's new deal, the Cecil's value has soared to high levels (I don't see the reason but is good news for us)

[gruber92]

Yup. It's not a big deal. I don't understand why they want Goins on this team so badly.

 

Why are you so hell bent on not giving Goins a shot? Because Steamer says so? I'm not a pro scout or something but I've been watching the game long enough to know that Goins has a decent approach at the plate and with the right coaching (hopefully Seitzer) he can put up a 80-90 wRC + to go along with his defense. I have a hard on for the guy because I see the potential and it would be fun to watch him succeed in the show.

 

f***, he's better than Manny Lee.

[gruber92]

This has already been said. It's not about "not giving him a shot", it's about minor league depth. If you sign someone s***** for AAA and start Goins on the team, who comes up to replace our middle infielders when they get injured? The s***** AAA infielder?

 

But... If you sign a better hitting infielder for the bench,which is sure as hell a possibility because Goins is a s***** hitter, and then have Goins in AAA to start the year. When one of our middle infielders gets hurt, Goins can come up and play.

 

It's not hard to understand.

 

Just sign Infante along with AAA depth and have Goins on the bench. Shut down middle infield defense combined with a high baseball IQ is more valuable than i think you realize. This team desperately needs these types. Signing a better hitting infield bench role type will not provide more value than the defense Goins will bring. Why spend more money on a lateral move depth wise at best? I'd love to land Phillips in a trade but we all know that Sanchez or Stroman would have to be involved. f*** that.

[theblujay]

Just sign Infante along with AAA depth and have Goins on the bench. Shut down middle infield defense combined with a high baseball IQ is more valuable than i think you realize. This team desperately needs these types. Signing a better hitting infield bench role type will not provide more value than the defense Goins will bring. Why spend more money on a lateral move depth wise at best? I'd love to land Phillips in a trade but we all know that Sanchez or Stroman would have to be involved. f*** that.

 

It's because these guys live and die with SABR stats and there isn't enough data on Goins defense so they just look at what steamer says and go with that. I truly believe he would greatly outperform his current defensive steamer projection.

[theblujay]

Jesus. Nobody is saying he will be a bad defensive player. The problem is his hitting.

 

You're not following. Steamer has him at a surprisingly low defensive level for next year. If he plays like he did last year he'll do much better than there projections, which could make him near as valuable as some of the guys you want to sign.

[Abomination]

I see no reason why Goins can't provide similar value at second to what Brendan Ryan does at short. It would be nice to plug in someone with a better bat, but having him start there isn't a crisis or anything imo. As for preferring to keep him as minor league depth, Jonathan Diaz can provide that depth next year.

[Abomination]

Is this for real? You think Infante is going to sign here to be AAA depth?

 

The guy had a 3 WAR season last year, with a 117 wRC+. Why the hell would he sign here to be AAA depth?

 

You would sign Infante...only to send him to AAA and leave Goins on our roster.

 

 

I just....sigh

 

You might want to read his quote again. He didn't say anything about signing Infante as AAA depth.

[Abomination]

You mean the 29 year old whos played in a grand total of 5 mlb games?

 

Yes. He's another plus defender with a below average bat. That's exactly what a AAA depth player usually is.

 

I should mention that the reason I rate Goins as better is that I think he can provide elite level defense at 2nd, not just plus. Otherwise I'd consider him exactly the same.

[Jays]

We could sign somebody who could do as good as a job as Goins defensively.

 

You kidding me, bro? No one has ever been as good as Goins, defensively.

[Jays]

Brett Cecil......everyone want or "Lefty Ace-reliever".

By the Jeremy Affeldt contract and the rumours of Javier Lopez's new deal, the Cecil's value has soared to high levels (I don't see the reason but is good news for us)

 

How can we get Espinosa for Cecil if we're getting Hanigan for him?

[Abomination]

Not sure how you can make this assumption with only seeing him play in such a small sample. Elite level is a pretty high standard for an org guy.

 

His bat is bad enough that he should be in AAA.

 

The range he displayed in game was elite level imo. I can't recall seeing some of those plays being made (and look so fluid in doing it) since Alomar was here. I don't think even a young Hudson could, although he would have been close.

 

The small sample size is plenty to visually see his range and defense being exceptionally high level. It's not enough for us to nail down an exact number or predict a WAR value for or anything.

[Abomination]

So I will give you two scenarios, choose which one you would prefer:

 

Scenario A:

 

Sign/trade for a solid bench player who can match Goins "elite" defense, and hit better than Goins. For say, Goins will hit at around a 60-70 wRC+ level (30-40% below league average). Goins would go to AAA, work on his hitting and defense and be ready to come up and play when injuries start to happen.

 

Scenario B:

 

Go into the season with Goins/Izturis combo at 2B, when injuries start to happen, Jonathan Diaz will be ready to come up and man the position for us.

 

Well, ideally neither. I have doubts though that you could easily find a bench player that could match his defense and hit better, especially for somewhere in the neighbourhood of league minimum. Anyone I can think of would be a downgrade defensively (although still mlb average or slightly plus). Players such as Ackley or Espinosa (2013 aside) for example (which I would definitely be on board with for either). Neither are really bench players though.

 

I would rather scenario B if I'm limited to the two choices above.

[theblujay]

So I will give you two scenarios, choose which one you would prefer:

 

Scenario A:

 

Sign/trade for a solid bench player who can match Goins "elite" defense, and hit better than Goins. For say, Goins will hit at around a 60-70 wRC+ level (30-40% below league average). Goins would go to AAA, work on his hitting and defense and be ready to come up and play when injuries start to happen.

 

Scenario B:

 

Go into the season with Goins/Izturis combo at 2B, when injuries start to happen, Jonathan Diaz will be ready to come up and man the position for us.

 

So in scenario A who's playing 2B? Also I'd be down with that, but only if we sign someone, not trade for someone.

 

I'd be fine going into the year with Goins/Izturis at 2B if we used money to fill other holes. That's basically what we had last year, considering Goins is better than Boni. I wouldn't be worried about depth of the bench in this scenario. Only if both got hurt would we have to use Diaz or someone for an extended period of time. There's no use worrying about that.

 

 

BTW we're about to hit 100 pages.

[theblujay]

Not sure how you can make this assumption with only seeing him play in such a small sample. Elite level is a pretty high standard for an org guy.

 

His bat is bad enough that he should be in AAA.

 

Regardless of whether you define him as "elite" or just "great" he's still a plus (plus) defender.

 

What I've been trying to say is that I think his projections are off. Steamer has him at 0.1 WAR with a 67 wRC+ (very reasonable) and 3.3 Def (not very reasonable) in 97 games. He had 6.5 Def in 34 games last (And I know it was unsustainable we went over this pages back), but I think his real value is somewhere in the middle. That could bump him up to 1 WAR or maybe more. You keep saying his bat is bad, but his D can make up for it and more to become a solid bench guy, maybe even 2B.

[Abomination]

Regardless of whether you define him as "elite" or just "great" he's still a plus (plus) defender.

 

What I've been trying to say is that I think his projections are off. Steamer has him at 0.1 WAR with a 67 wRC+ (very reasonable) and 3.3 Def (not very reasonable) in 97 games. He had 6.5 Def in 34 games last (And I know it was unsustainable we went over this pages back), but I think his real value is somewhere in the middle. That could bump him up to 1 WAR or maybe more. You keep saying his bat is bad, but his D can make up for it and more to become a solid bench guy, maybe even 2B.

 

I really think the Brendan Ryan comp I tried to make is a decent one. Both will probably hit fairly similarly, and Ryan over the last 5 years has been roughly worth 1.5 WAR / year.

[theblujay]

I really think the Brendan Ryan comp I tried to make is a decent one. Both will probably hit fairly similarly, and Ryan over the last 5 years has been roughly worth 1.5 WAR / year.

Yeah I like it.

[Nox]

I really think the Brendan Ryan comp I tried to make is a decent one. Both will probably hit fairly similarly, and Ryan over the last 5 years has been roughly worth 1.5 WAR / year.

 

A Brendan Ryan comp does not make sense. He's firmly established as top 3 defensive shortstop in all of baseball. There is a large value gap between an elite defender at SS and a good defender at 2B (if we are to believe this is Goins true talent level).

[Abomination]

A Brendan Ryan comp does not make sense. He's firmly established as top 3 defensive shortstop in all of baseball. There is a large value gap between an elite defender at SS and a good defender at 2B (if we are to believe this is Goins true talent level).

 

I was looking at it more from the point of view that I consider Goins to be slightly better than Orlando Hudson was defensively when he was here, and according to Fangraphs Hudson's defense in his final two years here rated at 17.8 and 11.5 (which is adjusted for position). Excluding 2013 which I'll consider a bad outlier for him defensively, Ryan has varied between 12.8 and 19.8 the four previous years. In 2010 and 2012, Ryan hit at 55 wRC+ and 61 wRC+ with 19.1 and 19.8 defense, which worked out to 1.3 and 1.4 WAR. Based on Steamer Goins should be a little higher than that offensively (I really think Steamer's projection of 67 wRC+ is too low, but that's another discussion), and a little lower defensively (not talking Steamer projections on defense, since I think everyone agrees it is too low). I don't think it's a bad comparison provided that he can replicate again on defense the kind of range he showed this year in games.

[Nox]

I was looking at it more from the point of view that I consider Goins to be slightly better than Orlando Hudson was defensively when he was here, and according to Fangraphs Hudson's defense in his final two years here rated at 17.8 and 11.5 (which is adjusted for position).

 

The defensive numbers are kind of confusing on FanGraphs in the way that they are displayed. A SS who is +11 and a 2B who is +11 do not actually provide the same defensive value. The 5 run difference in positional value isn't baked into these. So a +5 defender at 2B is really more similar to a neutral defender at SS.

 

If positional values were baked into the defensive numbers, you'd essentially never see a plus defender at 1B.

[Abomination]

The defensive numbers are kind of confusing on FanGraphs in the way that they are displayed. A SS who is +11 and a 2B who is +11 do not actually provide the same defensive value. The 5 run difference in positional value isn't baked into these. So a +5 defender at 2B is really more similar to a neutral defender at SS.

 

If positional values were baked into the defensive numbers, you'd essentially never see a plus defender at 1B.

 

Well, among qualified 1st baseman last year, there was only one (Napoli at 0.3)

[Nox]

Well, among qualified 1st baseman last year, there was only one (Napoli at 0.3)

 

Well holy s***. I think they must have changed things sometime in the last little while. I know for a fact Pujols used to have a +22 defensive season on the default dashboard. But now I see his highest is +13.

 

They used to put in raw UZR numbers under the main Def column but I see that's changed. For the better in my opinion.

 

And my apologies, you are correct.

[Angrioter]

Well holy s***. I think they must have changed things sometime in the last little while. I know for a fact Pujols used to have a +22 defensive season on the default dashboard. But now I see his highest is +13.

 

They used to put in raw UZR numbers under the main Def column but I see that's changed. For the better in my opinion.

 

And my apologies, you are correct.

 

Pujols '07

(+24,5 Fielding runs above avg) + (-11,4 Positional Adjustment) = 13,1

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B#value

[theblujay]

I was looking at it more from the point of view that I consider Goins to be slightly better than Orlando Hudson was defensively when he was here, and according to Fangraphs Hudson's defense in his final two years here rated at 17.8 and 11.5 (which is adjusted for position). Excluding 2013 which I'll consider a bad outlier for him defensively, Ryan has varied between 12.8 and 19.8 the four previous years. In 2010 and 2012, Ryan hit at 55 wRC+ and 61 wRC+ with 19.1 and 19.8 defense, which worked out to 1.3 and 1.4 WAR. Based on Steamer Goins should be a little higher than that offensively (I really think Steamer's projection of 67 wRC+ is too low, but that's another discussion), and a little lower defensively (not talking Steamer projections on defense, since I think everyone agrees it is too low). I don't think it's a bad comparison provided that he can replicate again on defense the kind of range he showed this year in games.

 

Good analysis. It seems that the problem is that people don't believe that Goins is a great defender based on the small sample size we've seen. The thing is just watching him you can tell his is a great defender, and the stats backed him up. So I'm willing to say he's a great defender, no reason he can't be as good as Hudson.

[gruber92]

Is this for real? You think Infante is going to sign here to be AAA depth?

 

The guy had a 3 WAR season last year, with a 117 wRC+. Why the hell would he sign here to be AAA depth?

 

You would sign Infante...only to send him to AAA and leave Goins on our roster.

 

 

I just....sigh

 

You going full blown retard now squirrel? Learn to read and understand it, not skim through and make assumptions.

[GD]

Oh how I've missed this thread <3333

[gruber92]

Says the Ryan Goins fanboy.

 

What does that have to do with your inability to read and comprehend things that fits your agenda? No acknowledgement on your obvious mistake? Whats up,can't admit you made a mistake and acted prematurely? First thing you need to learn in life is that its ok to admit when your wrong or made a mistake. You'll be respected far more. What are you,like 15 years old? Seriously though,who the f*** do you think you are on this board anyway? Lol,wow.

[gruber92]

Sure, I misunderstood and made a mistake.

 

How the hell do you expect me to respond to calling me a full blown retarded squirrel?

 

Spanky, is that you?

 

Calling me a "full blown retarded squirrel" for misunderstanding just shows the immaturity on your part. You clearly saw that I misunderstood, and then you continued on to say I went full retard. For a misunderstanding? Okay...

 

Actually what confuses me more is that you would actually think i meant AA should sign Infante as AAA depth. I guess you must think i have no clue regarding player's talents. I mean maybe you guys follow harder than i do,but i'm not that f***ing mental.

[Captain Adama]

Why the f***ing hell is thread 100 pages long? Jesus Christ.

[John_Havok]

Why the f***ing hell is thread 100 pages long? Jesus Christ.

 

No s***. Shouldn't have made it past the second post

[gruber92]

Well....

 

LOL.. We'll see how Goins works out, and i mean that in a BENCH ROLE. I say he works out to be one of the better back up middle infielders in baseball.