Can Ryan Goins stick?

[HERPDERP]

Do people here expect to sign a 6 WAR second baseman or what?

[G-Snarls]

Do people here expect to sign a 6 WAR second baseman or what?

 

Exactly. We can't. And I don't want to trade prospects for a 2 WAR 2B.

 

I'd rather spend $ on a catcher (McCann or Ruiz) and prospects or more cash on a starter (Tanaka, Garza, Price, etc...)

 

The added payroll obviously means AA has to get smarter/more frugal after next season and will have to move some contracts or get savings from emerging young cheap starters.

[flafson]

Do people here expect to sign a 6 WAR second baseman or what?

 

That is what it sounds like from half the people here.

[DuckDuckGose]

Exactly. We can't. And I don't want to trade prospects for a 2 WAR 2B.

 

I'd rather spend $ on a catcher (McCann or Ruiz) and prospects or more cash on a starter (Tanaka, Garza, Price, etc...)

 

AA would probably give up some crazypackage of prospects, like Stroman + Nolin + Norris + Hutch, for Price. He should avoid dealing with TB at all costs. I agree that AA should dip in to the FA pool to fill C and a mid-rotation spot. IMO it is going to take a trade to land the true #1 this team needs. I'm expecting one of Halladay, Garza or Johnson to be signed this off-season to fill the mid-rotation spot. McCann or Ruiz have to be the top C's on the market and I would agree with AA targeting either of them. However, there are also some pretty decent C targets that could be available for trade. I'd call MIL about Lucroy and MIN about Mauer. Slim chances at landing either of those players but, AA should test the market before FA.

[flafson]

I don't see them giving up Mauer, he's their franchise player. Besides, did you see how much he makes? A lot.

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't see them giving up Mauer, he's their franchise player. Besides, did you see how much he makes? A lot.

 

I don't really see it either but, they're terrible and he is set to make a lot of money. I also have no idea if the Jays could afford Mauer's salary or the cost in talent but, he'd be a great addition to this team.

[flafson]

He has 0.6 WAR in 2 weeks, that's not too bad. Most of it is from fielding though.

[L54]

AA needs to improve the team however he can, wherever he can. I think most posters here are saying that if we make upgrades at C and SP that living with Ryan Goins at 2B isn't the worst thing in the world. Realistically, we are not going to add a C, 2B, and two SP's this offseason, but if we crossed two of those off the list by adding a Ruiz and a couple of pitchers, Goins could work.

 

Let me ask this. Would you guys rather see AA sign a McCann and a starting pitcher, and go with Goins at second, OR sign Infante and a starter and go with JPA behind the dish?

[flafson]

BTW, if we sign Ruiz, do we need to give up a draft pick?

[G-Snarls]

Let me ask this. Would you guys rather see AA sign a McCann and a starting pitcher, and go with Goins at second, OR sign Infante and a starter and go with JPA behind the dish?

 

Well put.

[G-Snarls]

No, I highly doubt Philly offers him a QO.

 

So few guys get to FA status and are worth, at that time, a 1 year 13-14M deal. Not many of the qualifying offers actually get made. Most guys get extended in advance of free agency or walk without a QO. Ruiz is good but he ain't worth 14M a year. Phillies won't qualify him.

 

Edit: They may very well try to extend him though before the free agency deadline.

[G-Snarls]

Off track, but, anyone think the Phillies would want Kyle Drabek back??

[Convo]

AA needs to improve the team however he can, wherever he can. I think most posters here are saying that if we make upgrades at C and SP that living with Ryan Goins at 2B isn't the worst thing in the world. Realistically, we are not going to add a C, 2B, and two SP's this offseason, but if we crossed two of those off the list by adding a Ruiz and a couple of pitchers, Goins could work.

 

But is Goins actually a better option than Izturis. Sure Izzy has looked quite bad this year, but I think everyone would agree he's capable of much more based on past performance - both offensively and defensively. Personally I'd go with Goins just because of his age and the fact that he's looked flawless at 2B.

Edited September 9, 2013 by Convo

[G-Snarls]

But is Goins actually a better option than Izturis. Sure Izzy has looked quite bad this year, but I think everywould agree he's capable of much more based on past performance - both offensively and defensively. Personally I'd go with Goins just because of his age and the fact that he's looked flawless at 2B.

 

Well that's a valid point. And we have time to make that decision later.

 

Two decisions need to be made:

 

1. Do we acquire another 2B this off season? This decision needs to be made soon obviously. Goins playing time is helpful in this regard. Most of us on the positive side of this thread probably think it's not going to be easy to find a SIGNIFICANTLY better player than Izturis Goins or Kawasaki for 2B this off season, and that money/prospects are better spent at catcher and SP.

 

2. Who is the regular starting second baseman for 2014? Well, the Goins evaluation helps, but the team will have spring training to re evaluate Goins, Izturis, Kawasaki and anyone we might acquire in the off season. Most of us on the "pro" Goins side simply think he has a chance to win the job next spring, but Izturis could as well, with Goins remaining as your AAA backup. Izturis is a better player than we've seen this year according to most.

 

I think defense should be prioritized in this decision. And once a decision is made, less flip flopping next year. The inconsistent playing time and positioning of Bonifacio, Izturis and Kawasaki sure didn't help this year. That needs to be avoided in 2014. Thank God that Bonifacio is gone.

 

I stand on the side of prioritizing catcher and SP, with 2B as the third priority IF someone becomes available this off season.

[Abomination]

I really don't understand how anyone can be content to go with Kawasaki/Goins/Izturis at 2B even if other positions are upgraded. These are very likely replacement-level players. Go out and get a Punto, Scoot, Ellis, Beckham, or Roberts. None of these players are likely to give you 2+ WAR, except maybe Scoot, but they're all capable of giving you 1+ and probably won't give you 0. The cost would be minimal. Having a 1 WAR 2B with a replacement-level Goins/Kawasaki/Izturis on the bench and another in AAA is far more desirable than having a replacement-level player starting, another on the bench, and another in AAA.

 

Well, prior to this year that player was basically Izzy, and really he probably is due to bounce back towards those numbers. Let's face it, we'd be listing him as a target if we didn't have him this year. If Goins can put up an 80 wRC+ his defense probably makes him close to 2 WAR. I'm not sure there's a need to bring in someone else unless they are a clear upgrade over Izzy (prior to this year), with Goins as the sort of wildcard.

 

We have to use whatever resources we have in the most efficient way possible. If that means we improve the team more by addressing pitching and catcher, and not not having enough left to bring in an obvious upgrade at 2nd, so be it. If it does mean addressing 2nd, then that's preferable.

[G-Snarls]

Having a 1 WAR 2B with a replacement-level Goins/Kawasaki/Izturis on the bench and another in AAA is far more desirable than having a replacement-level player starting, another on the bench, and another in AAA.

 

Far more desirable?

 

By your own suggestion, it might be worth 1 WAR to replace Izturis with, say, Marco Scutaro.

 

But

 

Replacing Arencibia with McCann is 4-5 wins

 

Replacing Josh Johnson with Matt Garza is probably another 5

 

(I acknowledge that JJ himself might be 3-4 WAR better in 2014 than he was in 2013 but it's more fun this way)

 

Would I like to do all 3? Yes. If I have to pick 2, I pick catcher and starting pitching. AA should see what's available at 2B, yes, but there just might not be any good trade options, and I can live with what we have if upgrades elsewhere are big.

Edited September 9, 2013 by G-Snarls

[Caper]

I just don't see why you're presenting this as a dichotomy. A quick look at likely upgrades on the Goins/Kawasaki/Izturis triumvirate this offseason:

 

FA

Infante

Johnson

Ellis (team option)

Punto

Roberts

Drew

Peralta

 

Trade

Scoot

Beckham

Ackley

Ramirez

 

Some of these guys will require more assets than others, but there's zero reason to not land one of them. All project to be at least a 1-win upgrade on what we have in-house, and many will come at a negligible cost, even to a team that expended assets elsewhere. A team can't just settle for replacement-level production. Not one that's serious about winning.

 

Kelly Johnson sucks... I never want to see him in a Jays uniform again.

 

Also, of those guys who suck defensively?

[The Cats Ass]

I wouldn't mind getting Infante, that is my wish. I would also settle for Ellis on a 1 year deal though. Then next year we could sign a Asdrubal Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Hanley Ramirez, or Jed Lowrie. And move Reyes or one of them to 2B.

[G-Snarls]

I just don't see why you're presenting this as a dichotomy. A quick look at likely upgrades on the Goins/Kawasaki/Izturis triumvirate this offseason:

 

FA

Infante

Johnson

Ellis (team option)

Punto

Roberts

Drew

Peralta

 

Trade

Scoot

Beckham

Ackley

Ramirez

 

Some of these guys will require more assets than others, but there's zero reason to not land one of them. All project to be at least a 1-win upgrade on what we have in-house, and many will come at a negligible cost, even to a team that expended assets elsewhere. A team can't just settle for replacement-level production. Not one that's serious about winning.

 

Some good points

 

I guess here's what it is to me. I don't want to trade away any of what remains of the farm (or even good bullpen arms) for a modest upgrade at 2B. If we are going to trade away good prospects/players I want it to be for a cost controlled starting pitcher. I don't want to buy a free agent 2B if it means AA might then think the team is good enough and he can get away with NOT upgrading at catcher. It's obviously not completely mutually exclusive to upgrade 2 big holes (SP and C) and one potential smaller hole (2B). But there are limited resources for trade and free agent signings for most teams. Fix the bigger holes first, the the smaller one if you can.

[Caper]

Kelly Johnson is below-average, but he's very likely a 1-win improvement on in-house options for a $2-3 million 1-year deal.

 

What is the theorhetical record of a team made up of 0 war players?

[G-Snarls]

And yes, always make a good value trade when you can if it makes the team better. But good second basemen seem to be in short supply. I don't see a significant >1 win gain with any deal for one available right now.

[bendera3]

Some good points

 

I guess here's what it is to me. I don't want to trade away any of what remains of the farm (or even good bullpen arms) for a modest upgrade at 2B. If we are going to trade away good prospects/players I want it to be for a cost controlled starting pitcher. I don't want to buy a free agent 2B if it means AA might then think the team is good enough and he can get away with NOT upgrading at catcher. It's obviously not completely mutually exclusive to upgrade 2 big holes (SP and C) and one potential smaller hole (2B). But there are limited resources for trade and free agent signings for most teams. Fix the bigger holes first, the the smaller one if you can.

 

Exactly. If you're on a boat and your boat suddenly springs a few leaks, you try to fix the leak that's causing the most flooding first because it's causing the most damage. After you fix that it's easier to deal with the remaining leaks.

[G-Snarls]

What is the theorhetical record of a team made up of 0 war players?

 

52-110

 

.320 winning percentage

 

Not good

[GD]

52-110

 

.320 winning percentage

 

Not good

 

Isn't it 47 wins?

[John_Havok]

In 129 games with Jays in 2007 John McDonald put up .9 WAR with a wRC+ of 57. McDonald might be better on D, but I'm pretty confident Goins can easily surpass a wRC+ of 57.

 

f*** wRC+ ... "batting average is the best way to evaluate a hitter." - theblujay

[gruber92]

Been out of town for the past four days and came back to see this thread still rocking the leader boards.

[G-Snarls]

Isn't it 47 wins?

 

I got 52 from here:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8225

[G-Snarls]

bWAR and fWAR actually don't have have the same replacement-level. Actually I think they might have recently come to an agreement to use the same one, but they never had before.

 

Ahh, I see

[L54]

Depends how deep the pockets get this offseason. We all know that in order to compete they will have to get deeper, but whether or not they will is a different question.

 

And I guess if Rogers does spend more (ie bringing in a catcher and a SP), not spending 2-3 mil on a 1-2 WAR 2B seems completely absurd.

[theblujay]

f*** wRC+ ... "batting average is the best way to evaluate a hitter." - theblujay

 

So you ignore my point any make an off point attack. Good job