Reverse Standings Thread

[KingKat]

I'm not even letting myself hope for Choo TBH. Just seems so unlikely.

 

I can live with Cabrera/Rasmus/Bautista/Gose as our OF next year

 

But I want JPA gone for McCann, Ruiz or Piern and I want Garza or Tanaka signed

 

Ruiz is a great fit for the Jays. Good catch and throw guy, can actually get on base a little. Huge improvement without a huge cost.

[Laika]

Ruiz is a great fit for the Jays. Good catch and throw guy, can actually get on base a little. Huge improvement without a huge cost.

 

+ he's a character vet and a PED buy low.

 

It really makes too much sense to happen. AA will think it's fishy for being so obvious, then he'll sign Brayan Pena or something.

[ace3113]

I'm not even letting myself hope for Choo TBH. Just seems so unlikely.

 

I can live with Cabrera/Rasmus/Bautista/Gose as our OF next year

 

But I want JPA gone for McCann, Ruiz or Piern and I want Garza or Tanaka signed

 

You're right, catcher and a number 1/2 starter is more of a priority. I just really like Choo and think he would look real nice in our lineup.

[G-Snarls]

Choo is the perfect fit. This team needs to get on base more. He brings so much to the table and is underrated for so many reasons. You put him in the 2-spot you got Reyes-Choo-Bautista-Encarnacion-Rasmus-Lawrie just creating all kinds of problems. That lineup is damgerous and its not even completed yet.

 

Dammit

 

You're so right. I'd LOVE for us to get him. But how much $$$? What about Melky? Melky as 4th OF/ part time DH is pretty spendy at 8M.

[DuckDuckGose]

Choo is the perfect fit. This team needs to get on base more. He brings so much to the table and is underrated for so many reasons. You put him in the 2-spot you got Reyes-Choo-Bautista-Encarnacion-Rasmus-Lawrie just creating all kinds of problems. That lineup is damgerous and its not even completed yet.

 

Choo - $18M/season

Ruiz - $10M/season

Garza - $15M/season

--------------------

Total - $43M/season

 

2014 payroll without FAs - $110M + arb

2014 payrol after additions -$153M + arb

 

That'd put them in to the same neighbourhood as the Phillies and Red Sox. I doubt payroll actually goes up that high but it would help quite a bit.

 

Reyes

Choo

Bautista

Encarnacion

Rasmus

Lawrie

Lind/Melky

Ruiz

Izturis

 

Dickey

Garza

Buehrle

Morrow

Happ/Rogers

[G-Snarls]

Choo - $18M/season

Ruiz - $10M/season

Garza - $15M/season

--------------------

Total - $43M/season

 

2014 payroll without FAs - $110M + arb

2014 payrol after additions -$153M + arb

 

That'd put them in to the same neighbourhood as the Phillies and Red Sox. I doubt payroll actually goes up that high but it would help quite a bit.

 

Reyes

Choo

Bautista

Encarnacion

Rasmus

Lawrie

Lind/Melky

Ruiz

Izturis

 

Dickey

Garza

Buehrle

Morrow

Happ/Rogers

 

Love it.(the lineup anyway) But that's big money

 

You can save $$ by letting Davis walk, trading Sergio Santos, buying out Lind, having a roving DH, and having Ricky Romero kidnapped and dropped off on a tropical island, surrounded by former Ms. Latin America finalists and a lifetime supply of weed.

Edited September 16, 2013 by G-Snarls

[GD]

Dickey

Garza

Buehrle

Morrow

Happ/Rogers

 

That honestly isn't good enough.

[TwistedLogic]

That honestly isn't good enough.

 

That isn't anywhere near good enough. That has incredible potential to be a bottom 5 rotation in the majors.

 

And I don't think there's any chance Ruiz sees 10M a year.

[DuckDuckGose]

That honestly isn't good enough.[/Quote]

 

Not really sure what you're expecting. The rotation won't be better than that next season. Too many holes, not enough cash.

[DuckDuckGose]

That isn't anywhere near good enough. That has incredible potential to be a bottom 5 rotation in the majors.

 

And I don't think there's any chance Ruiz sees 10M a year.

 

Potential to be bottom 5. They also have the potential to be top 5. If you use their mean probable outcomes that rotation would be to this in the majors most likely.

 

Ruiz will also definitely get close to $10M of not more.

[G-Snarls]

That isn't anywhere near good enough. That has incredible potential to be a bottom 5 rotation in the majors.

 

And I don't think there's any chance Ruiz sees 10M a year.

 

Good points

 

And hey, welcome back

[KingKat]

Not really sure what you're expecting. The rotation won't be better than that next season. Too many holes, not enough cash.

 

Part of the problem with this rotation is that the Jays didn't emphasize overall run prevention. The Jays sunk a lot of money into Buehrle/Johson/Morrow/Dickey/Romero/Happ and not enough into defense. They are not going to open the purse to buy a whole other rotation. At most they will get someone to replace Johnson but it wouldn't surprise me at all if they just went with internal options. In any case, the Jays success will depend on getting the most out the returning starting pitchers not on which starting pitchers they sign (although obviously they could help). I really feel they need to go hard after Ruiz. Signing him is probably the best way to get the most value out of the rotation.

[G-Snarls]

Part of the problem with this rotation is that the Jays didn't emphasize overall run prevention. The Jays sunk a lot of money into Buehrle/Johson/Morrow/Dickey/Romero/Happ and not enough into defense. They are not going to open the purse to buy a whole other rotation. At most they will get someone to replace Johnson but it wouldn't surprise me at all if they just went with internal options. In any case, the Jays success will depend on getting the most out the returning starting pitchers not on which starting pitchers they sign (although obviously they could help). I really feel they need to go hard after Ruiz. Signing him is probably the best way to get the most value out of the rotation.

 

Good points

 

Defense will almost certainly be better next year. Reyes is only so so but we could be average or above average at every other position if Arencibia is gone for a plus defensive catcher.

 

Edwin, Bautista - average

Lawrie, Goins (?), Rasmus, Gose - above average

 

I guess Melky is a wild card and could be sub par if he plays every day

 

And, now that I look at that list, there are probably only 2 ELITE defenders there, and one of them (Gose) probably won't play every day.

[G-Snarls]

Morrow, Romero, Rogers, Johnson all produce a lot of ground balls when they're pitching well. The bad infield defense really hurt us. (So did the fact that Romero is more of a home run/walk pitcher than ground ball now LOL)

[G-Snarls]

I don't see another $58 million payroll increase given the disastrous result of last offseason's $40 million payroll increase.

 

So much waste all of a sudden for a team that had "no bad contracts" just 12 months ago

 

Romero, Happ, Buerhle goddamit. And f***, if Morrow doesn't pitch 100 innings or more in 2014 there's another 4M plus down the crapper.

[TwistedLogic]

Potential to be bottom 5. They also have the potential to be top 5. If you use their mean probable outcomes that rotation would be to this in the majors most likely.

 

Ruiz will also definitely get close to $10M of not more.

 

I don't think you'll find a single analyst in baseball that thinks that that rotation has a realistic ceiling of top 5 in the majors. Absolutely no way in hell. Is it a possibility? Of course it is, because everything is possible in baseball, but every single member of that rotation would have to pitch incredibly far above his own standards. Dickey and Buehrle are becoming ancient, Garza and Morrow are injury prone and Happ and Rogers profile as spot-starters. If the projected 2013 rotation of Dickey/Morrow/Johnson/Buehrle/Romero resulted in the season that we just saw pass, you are reaching incredibly, increadibly far in assuming that simply switching out Johnson for Garza would somehow turn this abomination into a serviceable major league rotation.

 

And no, it is not "definite" at all that Ruiz sees $10M a year as a 2 win catcher with a PED background. Russell Martin just posted a 4 win season and was an established catcher last season and signed for only 17M over 2 years. Again, is it possible that Ruiz gets 10M a year? Yes, because there are idiotic GMs out there and like I said, anything is possible. But it is not likely.

 

Good points

 

And hey, welcome back

Thank you, sir.

[G-Snarls]

I'd take Buehrle off that list. I agree though - Izturis (3), Melky (8), Thole (1.25), Romero (7.5), Happ (5.2), and McGowan (1.5) look like ~$25 million in sunk costs next year.

 

Sure, Buerhle is absolutely needed due to his reliability, I just liked him more at 13M than 18M.

 

Izturis is a good utility IF but 3M is too much for that role

 

Melky I hope can provide 8M in value as part time LF/DH next year. I wouldn't bet against a bounce back 2-3 WAR season.

 

I'd much rather have Mathis than Thole for the same money. I'm sure AA wishes he hadn't had to trade him.

 

McGowan? Too interesting to not want to see what he could do next year. I'd gamble 1.5M on him after what we saw this past month.

 

Romero and Happ pretty much guaranteed write off $

[G-Snarls]

If Morrow and McGowan could just split their DL time, each on the DL at opposite times, we could potentially have one good full time starter between them for 9.5M

[Howard Roark]

Not really sure what you're expecting. The rotation won't be better than that next season. Too many holes, not enough cash.

 

Which is exactly why the tear-down and rebuild needs to begin now, not in another 2 years once Nadir and The Board tear themselves away from the tennis for 5 minutes and realize that something is wrong.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

I don't think you'll find a single analyst in baseball that thinks that that rotation has a realistic ceiling of top 5 in the majors. Absolutely no way in hell. Is it a possibility? Of course it is, because everything is possible in baseball, but every single member of that rotation would have to pitch incredibly far above his own standards. Dickey and Buehrle are becoming ancient, Garza and Morrow are injury prone and Happ and Rogers profile as spot-starters. If the projected 2013 rotation of Dickey/Morrow/Johnson/Buehrle/Romero resulted in the season that we just saw pass, you are reaching incredibly, increadibly far in assuming that simply switching out Johnson for Garza would somehow turn this abomination into a serviceable major league rotation.

 

And no, it is not "definite" at all that Ruiz sees $10M a year as a 2 win catcher with a PED background. Russell Martin just posted a 4 win season and was an established catcher last season and signed for only 17M over 2 years. Again, is it possible that Ruiz gets 10M a year? Yes, because there are idiotic GMs out there and like I said, anything is possible. But it is not likely.

 

 

Thank you, sir.

 

The pessimism with respect to the potential upside of the pitchers is no different then the overdone optimism that many had for these pitchers before the season. The truth is likely in the middle somewhere. It is quite conceivable if the Jays have a top 3 offensive club that the staff will be good enough next year if only a few positive events occur. For example, Dickey have a good year ( not a reach ), Morrow pitching a whole season ( long shot perhaps ), Rogers being an effective innings eating 5th starter ( I think this is likely ), Stroman or someone else being an effective #3 or #4 starter ( who knows these kind of things occur a lot on baseball ), ... .

 

How many people truly liked the Red Sox staff going into this season ? Yet the first half their pitchers came out of the gate strong.

 

And there are a few more difficult to evaluate factors like the improvements a strong catcher would bring and just the psychological impact that lowered team expectations coupled with maybe a better start next season might bring. Jays might not have the best staff, but they have enough talent and depth that a significant improvement next year wouldn't be a shock. And if they add one useful guy to the mix he just has to be better then Johnson was this year to improve the team.

Edited September 16, 2013 by Cooler Heads Prevail

[GD]

Which is exactly why the tear-down and rebuild needs to begin now, not in another 2 years once Nadir and The Board tear themselves away from the tennis for 5 minutes and realize that something is wrong.

 

Didn't Nadir step down?

 

snip

 

Omfg no why the f*** are you back what is this i don't even

[Boxcar]

Omfg no why the f*** are you back what is this i don't even

 

Until you get a math degree at Waterloo, watch your tone.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Didn't Nadir step down?

 

 

 

Omfg no why the f*** are you back what is this i don't even

 

If that's the immature attitude you are going to carry well I'll just be more direct then and say your theory that Johnson was simply tremendously unlucky in 2013 is one of the dumbest ideas anyone has posted on this site.

[GD]

If that's the immature attitude you are going to carry well I'll just be more direct then and say your theory that Johnson was simply tremendously unlucky in 2013 is one of the dumbest ideas anyone has posted on this site.

 

I enjoy that you had to add the caveat "one of," because it's just so damn hard to top you.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Ill say it, Johnson was just terribly unlucky. Your dumn.

 

He must have been "terribly unlucky" then in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Unless you think he was actually excellent in 2012, rather then a marginally better then average NL starter who pitched on a last place team that was supposed to contend.

[GD]

He must have been "terribly unlucky" then in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Unless you think he was actually excellent in 2012, rather then a marginally better then average NL starter who pitched on a last place team that was supposed to contend.

 

"Guise guise Chris Sale pitches on a s***** team that was supposed to be decent he sux

 

well who cares if he has great DIPS stats he sux ok"

 

That's essentially you, ignoring Josh Johnson's 3.40 FIP in 2012 lol

[Jays]

Sale has a losing record this year. The guy isn't a winner. lol Buck Martinez

[Howard Roark]

Didn't Nadir step down?

 

He did? No idea, I've been doing my best to not pay attention for the past few months.

[Nox]

Cooler Heads Prevail: Waterloo math degree, viciously fooled by randomness.

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't think you'll find a single analyst in baseball that thinks that that rotation has a realistic ceiling of top 5 in the majors. Absolutely no way in hell. Is it a possibility? Of course it is, because everything is possible in baseball, but every single member of that rotation would have to pitch incredibly far above his own standards. Dickey and Buehrle are becoming ancient, Garza and Morrow are injury prone and Happ and Rogers profile as spot-starters. If the projected 2013 rotation of Dickey/Morrow/Johnson/Buehrle/Romero resulted in the season that we just saw pass, you are reaching incredibly, increadibly far in assuming that simply switching out Johnson for Garza would somehow turn this abomination into a serviceable major league rotation.

 

And no, it is not "definite" at all that Ruiz sees $10M a year as a 2 win catcher with a PED background. Russell Martin just posted a 4 win season and was an established catcher last season and signed for only 17M over 2 years. Again, is it possible that Ruiz gets 10M a year? Yes, because there are idiotic GMs out there and like I said, anything is possible. But it is not likely.

 

 

Thank you, sir.

 

2 WAR in 83 games, he's having another solid session. He also was suspended for amphetamines not PEDs.