The season isn't over yet...

[theblujay]

First of all I realize that this team isn't the team I thought they would be at the beginning of the year. Injuries, underperformance, awful bench, ect. I'm not saying they're gonna make the World Series.

 

There's been a lot of talk about how it's almost impossible for the Jays to make the playoffs and they have to play at x pace and win x games. A 100 win pace seems borderline impossible for this team, but that's looking at it the wrong way. We aren't too many games back right now.

 

Here's the key: Winning at a certain pace is much easier as you get fewer and fewer games. This team might not play the entire season at a 100 win pace, but maybe they can for a month or two. We saw the streak and what we can do with solid pitching. As long as we stay reasonably close we aren't out of it. I'm not saying its gonna be easy but it's possible. Anyways it's better to be positive and it makes the games more interesting.

[Arkadium]

After that 11 game win streak we were 3 GB of the WC-2 at one point, now we are 6.5 last I checked... if we keep playing like this the season IS over. BUT if a few things can turn around namely SP, then of course it's not over but let's be honest how can we contend with the so many misfits and players performing below average.

[dineke]

Same story for the last 20 years.

[theblujay]

No, it really is.

 

Maybe with these players they will never all put it together, but mathematically it's not as bleak as you think it is.

[IronLadle]

If the starting pitching ever gets it together, they'll make a good run at it - but it looks like a big "if"

[P2F]

Maybe with these players they will never all put it together, but mathematically it's not as bleak as you think it is.

 

LOL.

 

There's about a 2% chance that the Jays make the playoffs.

 

I don't like DEM MATHZ

[havok24]

This team f***ing sucks. It's over dude.

[theblujay]

LOL.

 

There's about a 2% chance that the Jays make the playoffs.

 

I don't like DEM MATHZ

 

Lol. This is exactly what in talking about. The projections look bad now, but all it takes is a very good month to get right in it. The point is that as the season ends the sample size gets smaller, making playing at an insane pace easier and easier.

[JFD]

Same story for the last 20 years.

 

yup

[John_Havok]

Lol. This is exactly what in talking about. The projections look bad now, but all it takes is a very good month to get right in it. The point is that as the season ends the sample size gets smaller, making playing at an insane pace easier and easier.

 

There's a certain logic to what you're saying... but that's flawed logic. Yes, as the games remaining get lower, it is theoretically possible to win at a higher percentage of games with fewer wins... that's just math, but the same holds true for the other 7 teams they have to leapfrog to get in, so the odds of the Jays going on that miracle run while all other team simultaneously s***ing the bed is about as likely as the dogg ever touching a woman without her being tied up and gagged in a basement with soundproof walls and plastic on the floors.

[JFD]

Lol. This is exactly what in talking about. The projections look bad now, but all it takes is a very good month to get right in it. The point is that as the season ends the sample size gets smaller, making playing at an insane pace easier and easier.

 

whatever you say Wilner

[bzapple]

Always the same with this team/board...when we lose it's "The season is over, f*** this team", and when we win: "Maybe there's still a chance if..." etc.

 

Sure, there's an outside chance of a run but we'd basically need Dickey and Johnson to pitch like aces for the rest of the season, have Lawrie burst back onto the scene 2011 style, and get at least average production from Izturis/Davis/Melky in order to offset the other holes on the team.

[Dude]

basically need Dickey and Johnson to pitch like aces for the rest of the season, have Lawrie burst back onto the scene 2011 style, and get at least average production from Izturis/Davis/Melky in order to offset the other holes on the team.

 

http://img.pandawhale.com/50244-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-c-hfiS.gif

[BlueJayWay]

I just pretend the Jays play in the NL West. They'd be like 2 games out there.

[dineke]

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view2/4294703/vince-carter-says-its-over-o.gif

[theblujay]

There's a certain logic to what you're saying... but that's flawed logic. Yes, as the games remaining get lower, it is theoretically possible to win at a higher percentage of games with fewer wins... that's just math, but the same holds true for the other 7 teams they have to leapfrog to get in, so the odds of the Jays going on that miracle run while all other team simultaneously s***ing the bed is about as likely as the dogg ever touching a woman without her being tied up and gagged in a basement with soundproof walls and plastic on the floors.

 

You're right, but my basic point is that they aren't that far behind. The team might suck, but if they get on a role they're still in it.

[backontop]

Very interesting title Mr. theblujay, how can any fan ignore this thread, after playing the Red Sox and the Tigers the past 8 games playing the Twins seemed easier than if we played the Bisons. So we have 8 games before the all important all-star break, two more with Minnesota which should get us back to .500, but then we play Cleveland three games, then Baltimore three games and don't think Baltimore has forgot about losing 3 straight to Toronto. So with 8 games to go before the big break, will we be 5 above .500 or 5 below? The latter could be a blessing in disguise. Needless to say, these next 8 games are crucial, and are lastl chance! after tomorrow night, I will go off the limb and say two straight (with RA pitching), then win the third game against this team that we are so obviously superior to and we will be back to .500, (beginning to sound like a broken record), but then 6 huge games as far as the Jays future is concerned, three vs. Cleveland, then three vs. Baltimore.

[Chappy]

You're right, but my basic point is that they aren't that far behind. The team might suck, but if they get on a role they're still in it.

 

Lets see them get to 5 or 6 games over .500 before the end of July first.

[backontop]

Chappy, you sound like that guy that you look so much like. Is Beeston really smart and deceiving us like idiots, or are Beeston and company really idiots, hence we stank year after year?

[leaffie]

Maybe with these players they will never all put it together, but mathematically it's not as bleak as you think it is.

 

I said right from the beginning of the season, that I thought it would take to the break before this team started to roll. Of course no one expected all the injuries, but I still think once this team actually fields a complete team, they will start to win. Now whether it will be in time, will depend how the pitching holds up for the Sox and the O's. Those teams are in a precarious position too.

 

I still think they will be playing meaningful games in September

[EdelweissBouquet]

AA reads this thread

Convinces him to buy, sell the farm even further

Jays miss the playoffs

 

What have you DONE

 

AA didn't sell the farm, he traded

prospects that were nothing special, like

the snider for lincoln swap was a reasonable

trade, in spite those who unreasonably

thought otherwise.

Think for yourself..don't just copy/

paste another posters opinion..you're

still young enough to pull out of the rut

you are in... DO IT ....

[Dick_Pole]

For them to be somewhat serious contenders, they'll need to win at least 14 of the next 21 games for the month. They play Minny twice more and Houston 4 times, so assume 5-1 in those games. That leaves 9-6 in the rest of the games, and they have 9 road games versus Cleveland, Baltimore and Oakland. So it's not likely.

 

The problem with this team in addition to all the most glaring issues is that they are absolute horseshit on the road outside of the Texas series. Maybe I need to leave the country again because I was gone with no access to the net for a week right in the middle of the win streak. Boy was I shocked when I returned when I saw their W-L record. I caught the Baltimore series then they have played like crap again so I know only one version of this team.

[intrigid]

Jays season so far is very closely following that of the 2001 A's. Just sayin'.

 

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/schedule.php?y=2001&t=OAK

[8D]

Wat

[backontop]

If after the next 8 games we are still one game over .500 or 3 below .500 surely, four months of baseball is enough to draw a conclusion don't you think? Its a mystery to me why the Detroit Tigers are dragging their feet. They have awesome pitching and hitting and yet it is as if they are goofing off until push comes to shove.

[Chappy]

 

In all seriousness, I still am holding out for an 89' Jays festivus miracle!

 

Well they don't need to win the division, just a WC to get a shot. In that regard they are not out of it yet. That being said, they will be out of it soon if they don't start winning more. They are 17-9 in the last 26 which is great, but they need to get 5 or 6 games over .500 before the end of the month otherwise there may just be too many teams for them to leapfrog.

[Deadpool]

All we need to do is string together a couple of 11 game win streaks and we're gold!

[ElNik2013]

For them to be somewhat serious contenders, they'll need to win at least 14 of the next 21 games for the month. They play Minny twice more and Houston 4 times, so assume 5-1 in those games. That leaves 9-6 in the rest of the games, and they have 9 road games versus Cleveland, Baltimore and Oakland. So it's not likely.

 

The problem with this team in addition to all the most glaring issues is that they are absolute horseshit on the road outside of the Texas series. Maybe I need to leave the country again because I was gone with no access to the net for a week right in the middle of the win streak. Boy was I shocked when I returned when I saw their W-L record. I caught the Baltimore series then they have played like crap again so I know only one version of this team.

 

 

They can't pitch consistently and unless they start to, they will not win consistently as the offense is just not good enough to overcome bad pitching. Perfect example is the Yankees, they're not very good on offense, but they can pitch.