Olney: Jays in on Garza

[Chappy]

Right. Peavy is the guy.

 

Peavy makes a ton of sense and with our lineup and pen would give us a chance to win every time he starts.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Watch them overpay and turn Castro into a 2B.

 

That's all we need. Another Dominican who can't draw a walk to save his life.

[flafson]

You know, i just thought about it. Maybe AA is buying all those FA's so he could give them a qualified offer and get a draft pick next year.

[baseballsss]

prob try to get garza for not to much and let him go at the end of the season. Set us up for a possiable 3 first rounds if JJ walks.

[G-Snarls]

You know, i just thought about it. Maybe AA is buying all those FA's so he could give them a qualified offer and get a draft pick next year.

 

That doesn't work any more

 

The player has to play a full season with a club to qualify for draft pick compensation.

[G-Snarls]

Stop counting up draft picks guys. It doesn't work like that any more:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/draft-pick-compensation/

[fatcowxlive]

Watch them overpay and turn Castro into a 2B.

 

That's all we need. Another Dominican who can't draw a walk to save his life.

 

You know that Bautista, Reyes and EE all have the best eyes and draw the most walks on the team, right?

[G-Snarls]

edwin, reyes, and bautista all get on base. Bonifacio does not. Your hate for boni shouldn't negatively reflect the doninican republic

 

lol

[G-Snarls]

Goddammit. I forgot about that.

 

Yeah. AA milked the old rule back when you could aquire a reliever for half a year and get a pick when he walked. That was ridiculous.

[dineke]

No Castro please... dude's been sucking it up and has a sizable contract. And he's also a rapist allegedly.

[G-Snarls]

No Castro please... dude's been sucking it up and has a sizable contract. And he's also a rapist allegedly.

 

Did you make any of those things up?

[G-Snarls]

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/01/06/sources-cubs-starlin-castro-accused-of-sexual-assault/

 

Oh...

 

That's the problem with posters who are usually funny. Sometime oh can't tell if serious or not.

[John_Havok]

Why would Garza go for 'not too much'?

 

Because he's a good but not great rental that would net no compensation for a guy going to free agency. The only way the Cubs get an A level prospect is if the trading team signs him to an extension, and for a guy with his shoulder issues, a team probably wouldn't be too keen on going very long with any type of deal. The nlly thing really keeping Garza's value even that high is his recent amazing pitching.

 

For a straight rental with no extension, a B level prospect and some international slot dollars would probably get it done.

[KSaw]

An extension wouldn't be all that reasonable IMO. He'd want 4/50 or something, free agent value. And we'd have to give up a good prospect (Osuna?) to get him.

 

If Garza were open to it we'd be better off waiting until the offseason to sign him. Some team that is actually a contender will offer the Cubs more than we could/should, since they have more of a need.

 

Being that the Cubs are not prepared to make a qualifying offer to Garza, for fear of him accepting, 4/50 is not realistic. 2 years + an option and with the first 2 years being just under 10 million is realistic. A vested option for a 15 million 3rd year based on 400 IP over years 1 and 2 is also realistic.

[KSaw]

Maybe an opt out after year 1 if he hit 200 IP or something like that would make sense for Garza too. His next contract won't be a black and white simple deal.

[KSaw]

I don't believe for a second that the Cubs are worried about Garza accepting arb. That's like saying we'd be worried about JJ accepting arb.

 

There is no arbitration anymore.

[KSaw]

The qualifying offer this offseason will be somewhere between 13.8 and 14.2 million. Lets just say $14 million. If the Cubs kept him and qualified him by offering $14 million for 1 year, Garza would probably snap that up. The Cubs don't want him at that price. They wouldn't get a pick. They'd get an injury prone pitcher for too much money in a year they won't contend.

[John_Havok]

There's no chance we land him for anyone outside our top-4. We've seen better than a B-level prospect moved for relief rentals. Somebody is going to pony up for an arm like Garza.

 

Well sure ut only for dem all important savez that MLB still overvalues like crazy.

[John_Havok]

Garza + weighted ball program = Cy Young. You heard it here first.

[ElNik2013]

f*** this, get the Cuban guy.

[KSaw]

There's no chance we land him for anyone outside our top-4. We've seen better than a B-level prospect moved for relief rentals. Somebody is going to pony up for an arm like Garza.

 

Not necessarily true. The Cubs are over their spending limit for international free agents. A good 8-900k boost in slot allowance would save them from penalties which include not being able to sign anyone from the international market in 2014.

[KSaw]

Theo Epstein is smart enough to know that paying Garza for one year as a 1-2 WAR starter is not prohibitive.

 

While in complete rebuild mode? And with the injury history? Pretty sure they want to stockpile international free agents and prospects and slash payroll.

[KSaw]

Osuna + slot allowance seems like what they'll get for him.

 

Well I tend to think that quantity matters for the Cubs right now. The slot money is very important and they have to move fast to get some. That slot cash means more international free agents next year. Also in regard to quantity, I'd actually guess that kids like DeJong and Smoral would interest the Cubs more because they could get something more with one of them. Buying low on a high ceiling 19 year old pitcher and getting another kid too would make sense instead of just Osuna.

[fatcowxlive]

Cuban guy or Peavy.

 

How about Cuban guy AND Peavy?

[KSaw]

I'd even say that if Toronto offered DeJong + Pillar and $800 k in slot allowance, the Cubs would be willing to send $2 million in cash with Garza.

[KSaw]

Pillar-- I agree. I see him as a 4th outfielder. A good 4th mind you and probably a good contact pinch hitter type who'd fit well in the NL. DeJong though-- really like his upside and think that he will be quite good.

[ElNik2013]

I don't want this farm system further gutted so no excuses, get the Cuban fellow. He's young and is believed to be MLB ready. I know he's not proven, but JJ, Dickey and Morrow were "proven". Anyway...

[G-Snarls]

That's a trash offer.

 

Plus AA might really want that int slot $

[KSaw]

That's a trash offer.

 

Not being a dick, but what do you base that on? DeJong just gained 10 pounds and his velocity is up. The kid is 6-4, smart, pitches rather than throws, has a biting curve and is picking up the change really quickly and it sinks. His projections have changed since the beginning of this year. He projects as a #3 starter.

 

Now projections and reality don't always match but scouts like him a lot more now. After he hits 200 pounds and he will, everyone will get a better feel for where he's going. Certainly isn't a bag of balls scrub though.

[Angrioter]

Cuban guy or Peavy.

 

Or Profar + Castellanos (Bautista, Janssen)