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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    Never a big fan of Joe Carter. For 30 years I always thought, great moment but they would have won in 1993 anyway. It was only game 6, would have won it the next day, or in extras if they only got one run in. or someone else would have done it... but obviously not. Perspective changed a lot after 2025 World Series. Jays had 15 chances in game 6 and 7 when a homerun would have won it and never came up with the big hit. A single fly ball, or one more hit would have won it. Probably 21 chances when you include the 8th inning of both those games. Like a single extra hit, to get an extra guy home even in the 8th would have done it. Thank you Joe Carter and Dave Winfield (1992) you are true men that have given us older ones a moment of happiness the young ones have never felt. They have had the odd joy here and there, but mostly pain and never complete victory.
  2. Olerud363.354
    Trade would have to be Jays get - Soto, Bichette Mets get - Vlad, Varland, Cease, Nimalla, Parker, the other Parker, King, Perry, Bullard, Keys, 1 billion US dollars, 1 million international bonus money.
  3. Olerud363.354
    Soto - projected .300 .400 .550 6 WAR a year for 12 years paid 600 million worth 700 million Vlad - projected .240 .320 .290 -2 WAR a year for 14 years paid 500 million worth -300 million The value difference of Soto and Vlad is probably 1 billion doillars.
  4. Olerud363.354
    This is why you consider trading Clement and Rogers. Are we aiming for 2027? 2028? A 2027 half season? If the latter do you roll with the half season? Or just totally tank the half season and concentrate on 2028? (like the Red Sox and Orioles kind of tanked the Covid season, and got good draft positions and international money for only 2 months of pain).
  5. Olerud363.354
    I personally think the Jays should pay for Grant to go to Fenway park, and when Gaussman, Clement, and Davis Schneider cross the field into the other dug-out, to join the Red Sox for their 18th in a row, Grant should escort them, and hand them over to Dave Portnoy. Grant should apologize for dissing the Red Sox so much, and on behalf of the Blue Jays organization and fans wish the Sox well on their quest for World Series Victory 5 (this century). Of course in return the Jays receive Justin Gonzales, some other pieces and hope for 2028. I think such a ceremony would even improve the vibes for the rest of 2026. Change the mood by acknowledging and apologizing for our sins. Main reason now this trade won't happen is Red Sox are too hot, and perfect as they are, and don't need or want our players. Maybe need to make the trade right now before Red Sox realize this.
  6. Olerud363.354
    Now 3.5 games behind the Red Sox. I know a lot of Red Sox fans and the Joy they feel during this streak, during this miracle season is something to see... but not 'woe is us', we had such last year. Every dog has it's day. But only if you recognize when to fold. We had 2025, we could have 2028. Time to sell. Even if you still have hope, surely you recognize that the current situation isn't working? Like if miracle run is destined to happen, just as likely with Goerge Springer, Gaussman and Schneider, and Hoffman, and others finding good homes and the young players in return surprising. Davis Schneider in particular. Please find him a good home. I still say Red Sox. If he becomes a hero there it will up us too, force Jays to re-evaluate our processes and treat the next Davis Schneider better.
  7. Olerud363.354
    2027 - No World Series (canceled lockout) 2028 - No World Series (canceled lockout) 2029 - World Series Dodgers 4-peat Starting line-up Ohtani Mike Trout James Woods Dodgers-super-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr (rehabilatated) Abrahams Corbin Will Smith Jazz
  8. Olerud363.354
    That is why there is no baseball until at least 2028. If you are looking to win there is one team to go to, then a second choice (Yankees). But the second choice is like 200 million (when you take into account taxes) from the first choice. But two teams that don't have losing seasons ever. Only 2. Mets/Blue Jays. Yes same brother different mother. Similar in all respects. Both, along with the Yankees will want to limit the Dodgers somehow. If you are a great player and the Dodgers want you the Dodgers get you, so need a salary cap to stop that.
  9. Olerud363.354
    According to some free agent site for 2027 I looked at Jazz is a center field option because he played there in 2024 (though not since AFAICS).
  10. Olerud363.354
    His defense is now negative according to fangraphs. If healthy still be an overall big positive (3-4 WAR) as a player. However if you are willing to put a non-elite defender in center, would you open it up to Trent Grisham, and maybe even Jazz ?? Like just try to find a 2 WAR guy to put out there even if the defense is not elite. Like if Varsho projects say 2 WAR with good defense, but Grisham projects 2.2 WAR with better offense, but worse defense, do they open it up to that kind of player?
  11. Olerud363.354
    Jay Harry has played a bit of center field. He is hitting .320 this year. However only .245 still lifetime and not an amazing strike-out or walk rate or anything so not sure how much stock you put into this year. Then there is Bohofren and Arrias in New Hampshire. All 4 (Classe, Harry, Bohofren and Arrias) give or take have the same minor league lifetime stats. No idea if any of them can play center.
  12. Olerud363.354
    I demand .330 so to me Clase is just another failure already. I guess on a serious note Clase overall in the minors seems pretty mid, but not a guy I'd write off yet. Like not a terrible hitter. Also if I apply my "what do they know that I don't" logic, like I apply to draft picks who drop, the fact that Seattle traded him for a reliever is a flag? Like they are not going to trade an every day center fielder for 2 months of Yimi. On the other hand maybe no one knows and they traded a 35% chance of an everyday center fielder, so you have to work with him another year and see.
  13. Olerud363.354
    I just checked Clase's scouting report and nothing terrible there. This year everything is normal for him, except batting average down. I am a big batting average guy and reject my prospects unless they are hitting .330, but Blue Jays Message board doesn't in general love batting average as much as I do, so according to that philosophy the .225 this year is just noise. Not the greatest arm. Elite speed. Has a 70 sb season and a .257 .359 .430 minor league average. Actually same minor league numbers as Cedric Mullins. Currently same projections going forward as Cedric Mullins. His 75th percentile projection is probably Cedric Mullins at his average. His 97th percentile Projection is probably Cedric Mullins 2021, unlikely to hit that, but so would Cedric Mullins if he randomly replayed his career 20,000 times.
  14. Olerud363.354
    If Blue Jays Message Board is a "no" keep adding Boston Prospects until yes. What would be fair? If you think Boston would say no, add something to our side. Franklin Arrias is off the table. Player like that would never get traded except for Mike Trout 28 years old with 3+ years control. Clement/Gaussman/Schneider +???? for Mayer/Gonzales/Witherspoon + ????
  15. Olerud363.354
    They let Bichette go. They sent Schneider to the minors. They traded Loperfido. This organization doesn't have a huge amount of nostalgia. Well probably Atkins and Shapiro don't. I do get that Sportsnet and Rogers may not want the only all-star and most popular player traded. So maybe my idea won't happen. Clement/Gaussman/Schneider for Mayer/Gonzales/Witherspoon Boston - yes or no? Shaprio - yes Atkins - yes Hazel Mae - no Doug Ford - no Davis Schneider fan club - hell yes Blue Jays Message Board - ?
  16. Olerud363.354
    He's on the wrong side of 30. I know it would be unpopular but Clement, Gausman and Davis Schneider, for Marcello Mayer, Justin Gonzales and Kyson Wetherspoon. Boston gets - gritty players with deep playoff experience who can contribute to 5th world series title this century. Toronto gets - Hope in the form of a really good second best prospect (most teams say no-fn-way to the 1st prospect so aim for teams with good 3rd best prospects). Davis Schneider gets - an organization that won't send him to the minors and a wall to aim at. People think I'm joking but I'm not. Toronto playoff odds at now 10%, Boston 50%. Could be 80% and below 1 by the July 25th playoff series, and players should cross the field then.
  17. Olerud363.354
    There is an obvious match with Boston. Help Boston get their 5th World Series of the century, and in return have hope for 2028 and beyond. Also get Davis Schneider and Ernie Celement good homes. To Boston - Schneider, Clement, Gausman Not sure what the injury story is with Story, Early and Saurez, but all on DL. Franklin Arriaz is a super-prospect so don't even think of it. But maybe a package centered around Justin Gonzales, Marcello Mayer, and a pitching prospect. These trades are always hard to configure, and you only know you got it right if both sides say it's crazy (like the Boston side will over-rate Gonzales and Mayer's chance for rehabilitation, and Jays side will over-rate their players). I think there is a match there. What would you ask for from Boston for those 3?? If you think it takes Arrias say so, but I think he's untouchable and need to go to their 3-10 prospect list, and salvage projects.
  18. Olerud363.354
    1. Clase. 2. Harry. 3. Jace Bohofren. 4. Arrias the latter two are in double a, but you move them to Buffalo and if both the first two get injured or something call them up. For 2028? That is a problem to be solved after the strike/lockout.
  19. Olerud363.354
    Playoff odds are 10% on bbref and 20% on fangraphs now 4th worst in the AL. They just blew an easy part of the schedule and are heading into a much tougher one. They are the worst positioned of 6 teams fighting for 1 spot. Fangraphs for some reason gives them slightly better then 1 in 6. BBREF slightly worse. Playoff odds will be below 5% BEFORE the next Boston Series, and < 0.1 after it. I'd start firesale before that, but after getting destroyed by St. Louise and Tampa, they can concentrate on across the field trades with Boston during that series. Get Davis Schneider in Boston before that series, they will love him there and appreciate his talents. Sell early sell often. They are already sent the friendship down to Buffalo. Gausman, Corbin, Scherzer, Springer, Straw, Varsho, Schneider, Lukes, Clement, Giminez if any one will take him. Hoffman, Rogers Little, Bieber. Crazy but.. 1. Hopeless team and the magic is gone 2. Best sellers market in generations 3. Likely no 2027 so play for 2028
  20. Olerud363.354
    He's already projected to have the same on base as Varsho and Straw. Though point still valid. Carrying full time players with a .290 on base percentage isn't ideal. Be fun to see him play for the rest of the year. I feel like rule of thumb is minor league stats are a ceiling. Like he's not going to have a .400 on base percentage, but maybe it could be .335 if he reaches his positive projection.
  21. Olerud363.354
    Clase is .257 .349 .433 minors, .230 .302 .345 majors projected about that .230 .290 .350 or so Straw is ..293 .380 .370 minors, .246 .314 .317 majors, projected .230 .295 .320 or so Varsho is .296 .365 .519 minors .228 .297 .435 majors projected .230 .295 .410 or so. Varsho still projects best. Not sure about defense. Clase is fast I think.
  22. Olerud363.354
    Thanks for telling me what I don't quite get. No where did I say the Jays have any type of scouting failure here. I'm just skeptical that there getting some elite player with pick 100. Just as I was skeptical they were getting a good deal on Bieber. Just as I was skeptical that they were getting a 1/1 with Austin Martin. And I'm not accusing you personally of being over-optimistic in any of these cases, but in all three you hear over-optimistic takes, whether it is twitter or here. Like Bieber there was all this ******** about friendship, with Austin Martin there was talk that he was a great pure hitter and a 1/1 talent (again nor from you personally). This catcher I heard somewhere was an elite first round talent. The reverse is also often true. Like if next year Jays take a guy with their 7th pick (or whatever it ends up) that was projected 50, and everyone freaked out, I'd be the opposite. Something there good we don't know about yet. If Jays give Daulton Varsho the qualifying offer after a 1.5 WAR year, not a disaster, likely something still there they like.
  23. Olerud363.354
    This place is insufferable. No one is making s*** up. It's like people here have never lived in the real world. I thought I was the only in my parent's basement. It's like you all have no experience with anything in business or stock trading or statistics or buying a used car or anything. If the price falls then something is going on. That's just life. If something seems to be too good to be true it probably is. If you get something for cheap, you didn't get it for cheap you got it for the right price. Not saying this guy will be a complete failure or anything, just that on average these things aren't going to be an amazing deal. Reminds me of when Beiber took his option. Most people were thrilled but the suspicious were right. They mostly (but not always) are.
  24. Olerud363.354
    2 WAR guy now with terrible batted ball data. I guess it depends on his second half.
  25. Olerud363.354
    I don't think this is true at all. If a guy hits .300 .400 .500 over any sample size and age appropriate level he's a guy. Interestingly we are now seeing two types of hitters, high bat speed high EV hitters, and low bat speed low EV hitters with elite contact succeed. The latter group is interesting. McGonigle, Horwitz, Luis Arraez, Clement and a few others. Not triple crown threats, but above average hitters with way below average bat speed and exit velocity. Likely cases will exist between the two extremes and this will muck up trying to evaluate them with underlying metrics. Of course if their underlying metrics all suck, bad EVs, bad contact, then their stat line is a fluke. But some guy with average EV, average contact rates, launch angle optimized, could be a legit good hitter.
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