Brownie19

I'm super high, but it feels like this win just changed the tone of a lot of people on this board. Interesting.

Yeah - that's fair. Perhaps my breakdown was too simplistic.

Agreed, but still crazy to see the Phillies at 6 and White Sox at 47.

Hey - we won a game and got a split today. Team showed a bit of grit. No GDT is a little sad (unless one of the tampon brothers started it, in which case, I won't see it).

That's fair. I wonder if that 9% drop off is different for "star" players v. your average player. I suspect it is. And you should post most - these are nice logical discussions!

It is interesting how it worked so well for Chapman for that 1 month and he did talk about how he was trying to stay up the middle more (which to be fair was after he'd struggled for a couple of years to recreate the success he had in 2018/19) and then it all just completely went to s***. It's also interesting that his Pull% in 2023 was actually a lot closer to what it was when he had to his best years in 2018/19. It's also interesting that he's pulling the ball even LESS in SF this year. Did Chapman ever specifically say it was the organization that suggested he try to stay up the middle more in 2023? It may have been his own decision or his own private hitting coach who was suggesting that. As for the rest of the team let's have a look: - first off, Vlad had his HIGHEST career Pull% in 2023... - Bo's Pull% has dropped every single year since his rookie year...no sign of a "new approach" here - Springer - his Pull% dropped last year, but it dropped back to where it was from 2016-2019 when he was a stud - Kirk, like Bo, has seen his Pull% drop for 4 straight years now - Jansen - he pulls the ball a ton - Varsho - Pull% was still 51% last year, but yes it dropped 3% from 2022, but was still WELL above his 2021 season. - KK - Pull% was WAY up from his previous 2 years in TB - Belt - Pull% was above his career average Someone tell me where this narrative is coming from because I don't see it in the results. Chapman and Springer seem to be the 2 that stand out and both were pulling the ball about as much as they have in previous years when they've had a lot of success. I just don't see it guys and it's almost hilarious that Vlad set a career high in Pull% last year when people believe the FO implemented some org wide change to use the whole field more. The offense is broken, but I'm calling BS on this narrative.

Yeah - I love KK a player, but that never seemed like a good fit. It's not like it was terrible value. Bader signed for the same amount, coming off a much shittier year, Heyward got $9M, Whit got $8M. We could have gone with like Hunter Renfroe or Joey Gallo or tried to lure McCutchen here, but these guys all f***ing suck. There was Teo at $23M or you use your magical crystal ball and get Profar for $1M....or you had to sign clubhouse cancers who can't play defense like Winker or Pham I guess? The other option was to trade for someone. The farm system is pretty grim, so I suspect the Jays felt more comfortable bringing KK back instead of going the trade route. It has not worked.

Yes - there's been several discussions over the last few years about how Vlad's flyballs don't go as far as other players. Nobody knows why. Must be spin or something. It's kind of infuriating.

Trying to get ahead of what curve? The only thing that seems logical is to counteract the league's change to more breaking balls, they want hitters to stay back and use the whole field, which they think will help them adapt to the massive increase in off-speed pitches? Maybe something to do with the elimination of the juiced balls? I guess that could be it? I don't know. Adjustments based on the shift rule don't make sense. But again, it's not like everyone has changed. Jano's not trying to use the whole field.

I'm sure they did man. It's all probabilities. The current outcome is probably a 15th percentile result, which just really sucks. I doubt any of the data they have suggested there was a high probability that he'd completely fall off the cliff. There was also a probability he bounced back and was a 115-125 wRC+ bat this year. That probability was likely just as high as the probability he'd be a 80 wRC+ hitter.

I'd agree with that, but it's not like this 2024 team was a horrible team on paper that shouldn't have been adding those "cherry on top" pieces like IKF, Green and Turner. We were projected to be a playoff team (50-66% chance of making the playoffs). The team isn't failing because of the FA signings.

There certainly are people who have opined that the Jays shouldn't have spent FA money on Yariel. I don't care enough to go find you receipts, but they exist (and I know this because I don't have early onset dementia - at least I don't think I do - I forget).

I completely agree that the offense has been awful the past 2 years. But do you really think Atkins went from leading one the best offenses in all of baseball in 2021/22 to saying "you know what, we should change everything!" Do you think he reacted to the league banning shifts by saying "good - now that they can't put 3 guys on one side of the infield, we'll try to pull the ball less". Do you think he looked at the team and said "regardless of what type of hitter you are or what success you've had in the past, everyone on this team must adopt the same approach and shall use the whole field more". Do you think Jansen and Schneider (a couple of our big pull hitters) are simply defying team direction right now? Is Orelvis down in AAA being told to use all fields more? Seems doubtful. I just can't buy any of that. There's just no logic in it. There was discussion about the guy from the O's who worked with O'Hearn yesterday and that he's a big "get on plain early" supporter. That isn't revolutionary at all - I follow TONS of hitting coaches and literally every single coach has been preaching that for the past 5+ years. I haven't found one that say "nope - don't get on plain early - that's the wrong way to do it - you need to chop down on that ball and have immaculate timing!" (some do talk about the "feel" of hitting down on the ball, but feel and results are 2 different things). I'd suggest there's literally zero chance the Jays players are being told to use some alternative prehistoric approach. I get people are searching for answers and they love to pin it down to 1 thing - because that makes it easy to fix, but IMO, there's almost no way it's primarily offensive philosophy of the team that could be fixed easily by simply bringing in Josh Donaldson to replace Donny Baseball. To conjure up this notion that Atkins probably idolized Don Mattingly and that he's here and that he's pushing s***** philosophies that don't work in 2024 is really dumb. The Braves have gone from the best offense in baseball last year (by a MILE) to 18th in baseball this year. AA is on record saying he doesn't know why and if he did, he'd fix it. Did AA bring in his idol to completely change their philosophy to some 90's theme too? See how stupid that sounds?

Congrats on the new tat BC. I generally agree with all of this. I'd be quite pleasantly surprised if IKF kept his wRC+ >100 over the course of a full season, but he's still a useful player on a winning ball club. However, if IKF does finish the year with a 105 wRC+ (or something like that) - will people give the Jays staff credit for his career year? I know the answer to that (staff only hurt players - they have nothing to do with Jansen or Schneider's breakout, Varsho's improvement, etc.), but maybe they've helped him made some tangible adjustments that are leading to a career year. To date, he isn't running a super high and unsustainable BABIP. He's reduced his K% and increased his ISO. Or maybe he's completely tuned out all Jays coaches - that's probably more likely.

You want receipts of people who thoughts Atkins wasted money on FA's this offseason? oh boy, you may want to get checked for early onset dementia

He's just waiting until Baltimore trades for him, adjusts his bat angle and turns him into a 120 wRC+ hitter.

I use it often now and it's quite enjoyable. What is hilarious is I've been called out twice or spreading sunshine across this board after wins v. the White Sox.....something that never happened. It's bizarre.

Typically, when you're not a contending team, you can take on a lot more reclamation projects (like the O's did with Bautista and Cano - or the Jays did with Bautista and EE). It's less common to see it happen on good baseball teams like the 2023 O's with O'Hearn, or even the 2015/2016 Jays (Chris Colabello and Justin Smoak). FWIW, I don't consider what they did with O'Hearn a transformation. What Justin Turner or Jose Bautista did to their swings was a transformation. Changing a bat angle (seemingly overnight) is just a tweak.

Interesting - thanks for sharing. So this wasn't an offseason change, nor did they fix him before they called him up and put him in the lineup. Amazing how a subtle change in his bat angle can be fixed so quickly, with such great results. I know Varsho made similar adjustments to his bat angle this offseason too. It's wild to think the 102 win O's gave a 29 year old who hadn't broken a 71 wRC+ in the majors over the past 4 years extended time in the lineup....and it totally worked! They are certainly playing 4D chess right now.

I wonder if in the 2018 draft, if the O's had the #1 overall pick instead of the 11th overall pick, if they still would have taken Grayson Rodriquez - or if they'd be stuck with Casey Mize like Detroit is. The O's landed one of the only useful players in that draft - is that because of their superior scouting and development? or is there a lot of luck involved in that? AA took Carter Stewart in 2018 and he didn't sign (or become anything), followed by Shea Lageliers and Braden Shewmake (who?) in 2019. GM's and teams swing and miss so f***ing often in the MLB draft, that I'm not inclined to given them all kinds of accolades or criticism. Even when you look at internal development/improvement....Have a little gander over at Atlanta and let me know how things are going for them right now. They're now 12th in runs scored (after being 1st last year). Michael Harris and Austin Riley are both in the midst of their 2nd straight year of decline (wRC+, ISO, etc.) - both having horrible years to date. Let me know how Bryce Elder is developing, or how they developed Jared Shuster, Kyle Wright, AJ Smith-Shawver, etc. Don't get me wrong - still a great team and organization, but it does help show just how difficult this game of baseball is. Trends and such sure can change in a hurry.

I suspect a significant swing change would take most of the offseason to master (lots of muscle memory to change). Did it say if he did this under the direct supervision of the O's, or did he does this on his own with an external swing coach? I see he didn't even become an Oriole until like January 3rd.

I don't disagree with that at all. I'm just saying it's been 2 games (not 3, my bad) that Vlad has played at 3rd. I fully agree that if they are going to play Vlad at 3rd regularly moving forward, that added Horwitz to the starting lineup, to see what he is, would be a good idea. I'm just not going to get all worked up when they don't do that immediately. The team hasn't yet given up on this season (which they probably shouldn't, even if there's only a 15% chance of turning it around). Once they do wave the white flag, I fully expect we'll see more minor league guys given an extended look.

Great point Tim. The O's fixed him in 11 games in AAA before calling him up. Oh and his production in those 11 games (175 wRC+) was actually worse than his last stint in AAA with the Royals (251 wRC+ in 19 games)

Yes - 3 of the 4 runs were generally tied to payroll. 2020-2024 (19th, 11th, 10th, 6th) 2014-2017 (10th, 10th, 10th, 5th) 2005-2008 (25th, 16th, 16th, 13th) 1990-1993 (13th, 9th, 3rd, 1st) I don't think the Jays spending more money during their contention window is overly surprising.

Sorry - I should have been more clear that I don't think we'll be a playoff team until 2030. We could certainly be back to some winning records before then.