Brownie19

I think this is spot on and why I believe a tangible change in the FO - one that would impart real change, is going to take YEARS and we're going to go into a dark time. Change is HARD. That new GM may need to clean house, change philosophies, oversee that change, etc. Then you have to hope the replacements you bring in actually deliver. What is interesting is that Tinnish and others on the drafting/development side of things have been holdovers from the AA regime. Are they just f***ing the dog now, or did they forget how to do their job? I knew Tinnish fairly well back in the day and used to chat with him a few times a year. Haven't in probably 6+ years. I'd love to see what his view is on all of this.

If Varsho finishes the year with a wRC+ over 115, he's one of the most valuable players on the Blue Jays. He'll only have 2 years of control remaining and thus we should 100% trade him this offseason.

Kikucci is 33 this year. There is no point in extending him unless you get a sweetheart deal that increases his trade value. He should be traded this year to a contender. He's going to be approaching 40 and returning to Japan by the time we're contending again.

To be fair, Hicks was awful as a starter in the past. His transformation into a starter is pretty amazing. This is probably the 95th percentile outcome and I don't think many at all saw him having anywhere near this type of success. If they did, he would have gotten more $$$. I mean kudos to the Giants, but this has to be working out beyond even their wildest dreams.

Exactly. As soon as the coaches in the upper minors get ahold of him, he'll be useless in no time.

Highly doubtful there's much there. Maybe a bullpen arm one day?

To be fair. 2020 Brad Hand was exactly what the bullpen needed....f***, Hand even went on to pitch WELL for the Mets in 2021 after we let him go. That version of Hand would have been perfectly fine (2.40 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 9.5 K/9)....he literally JUST completely s*** the bed when he arrived in Toronto for 8 2/3 innings. The guy had 5 straight years with 1+ WAR and was only 31. There was just so much randomness those results - it's unbelievable.

Oh FFS. Toronto development strikes again! AA brings a 20 year old who's never pitched above A ball, inserts him in as our closer and he's dominant in 2015. Atkins relivers can't even get people out in AAA. How does Cooke go from 2-3 BB/9 in A/AA to 8-9 BB/9 in AAA?

There are LOTS of interesting bullpen arms that are very close to contributing at least. Sell Romano, Garcia, Green, etc. this year and let's bring them on and see what they have to offer.

Is he still obsessed with everything I say? How f***ing sad. Let it be known I was a huge AA fan and still am. Pretty sure I've said that a few times. Unlike some, I can objectively look at things and point out that Devon Travis was good for 2 seasons....the only 2 seasons the AA regime was competitive. I can also notice Colabello was only good and roided up for 1 season and it was the 1 year we REALLY needed him (Smoak wasn't good then). AA rolled Osuna out there as our closer in 2015 as a 20 year old rookie and he was immediately dominant. We got 28+ starts from 4 starters (Dickey, Estrada, Buehrle and Hutchinson....a rather sad/boring, yet healthy rotation that year before we got Price). It was glorious watching Jose, EE, Martin and JD dominate (with Pillar patrolling CF), but AA needed several risky moves to work out (and mask that we gave 127 innings to Delabar, Schultz, Jeff Francis and Tepera, who combined for -1.1 WAR and 428 PA's to an 85 wRC+ Ryan Goins (in what was his career year)). I loved AA and I loved the 2015 Jays, but it's not difficult to see that SEVERAL things broke right for this team that year - including the Rangers making like 17 errors in the 7th inning of Game 5.

I do recall the majority of this board hated the HR jacket and hated all the fun the players were having. Most wanted a team focused on winning over fun.

I just stated the facts. AA didn't "create room" for anymore young prospect than Atkins did. It's too bad others can't see that. It's so cute the tampon twins thank every post you make about me.

Which likely means TJS is in his future...

Moves like Green or IKF don't even move the needle. This team could have signed Ohtani and we'd still be awful.

You act like it's easy....no big deal. Like you somehow forget we went 21 seasons between playoff appearances. I watched this team develop SEVERAL stars like Doc, Delgado, Shawn Green, Vernon Wells, etc. and it didn't matter. It didn't mean s***.

I'm just point out that people have been furious that he isn't going with his gut feeling more and is just a puppet that does what Atkins and the computer tells him to. When he actually does try to shake things up and go against the probabilities, he also gets s*** on. I thought you s***ing on him was a little unnecessary as it was in the 3rd inning of a game in early May in a season that out offense has been horrible. Personally, I feel there is room to use both the analytics and the eye test, but you need to leans towards the probabilities. Sounds like you're in the same camp. I think there are lots of fans on the other end of the spectrum.

I don't think this is true either. Most draft picks take 2-4 years to even get to the majors. Outside of your true generational talents, most struggle upon arrive and take another year or two until they start to thrive. Even if our 2024 draft is great, it's doubtful they have much impact until 2027-2029ish....and of course that's assuming you hit on several draft picks....oh and that they don't turn into pumpkins like all our young players have. Them poor Tigers thought they had the future in Tork and Mize. Draft picks fail all the time.

This isn't true. You know that.

Don't forget AA's downfall was often the depth he created. There's some inherent luck that Devon Travis was great as a rookie in 2015 and again in 2016 because there as virtually no backup plan. I guess Goins was the backup plan and well - he sucked, even in 2015, which was his career year. Travis was done as a player after those 2 seasons. AA also got career years out of Pillar and Colabello in 2015 - perfect timing. You could argue Atkins made/left room for Kirk, Manoah, Espinal, Teo, etc. if you wanted. Pompey always sucked. He never played more than 34 games. Goins also sucked balls.

I think I prefer to build a rotation via free agency over the gong show that is developing young starting pitchers. I still love the Cubs approach of drafting position players, who bust at much lower rates and then buy/trade for your rotation for proven pieces that are more reliable. There are obviously challenges with that approach (depth is the immediate one), but in general, I like that premise.

Why do we keep saying this? He's started 7 of the last 8 games. You're also excluding 2020. Add an astricts if it makes you feel bad, but we surprised that year and made the playoffs before we were expected to. AA's window wasn't nearly as long as Atkins, but it might have been larger. To be fair, Atkins window would have been just as large if Vlad, Kirk and Manoah didn't abnormally s*** the bed.

I don't know either, but it's doubtful we see the results of any change for a few years - it could take 3-4 years to implement change throughout the organization. Also, I wasn't suggesting we're going to (or need to) be a bottom 5 team or a perennial 100 game loser. I just think it's going to take some time to transition to a new FO and to rebuild the farm system before we can work our way back up the standings in the AL East. I think it's going to take several years for this to happen, given the strength in the division and the state of our farm system. I think we're going to linger around, winning 70-80 games for the foreseeable future. Fans will generally support the new approach and we'll preach patience, but then after 3-4 years, if we're not starting to contend, the complaints will start again. You may even get some people lamenting about how they miss the old Shatkins days - just like they do the Beeston/AA days.

Likely a lot more than anyone wants. The alternatives are all hurt. Maybe Francis takes over if/when he gets healthy, but we've already seen what that looked like. We could start Brendon Little instead?

I'm thinking the Brewers from 2013-2016, but they're in a much easier division, so our dark period will be a little longer...or maybe we are the 2009-2013 Mets, or the 2014-2017 Braves? Something like that.

FA in 2027 - same as Gausman. If we don't start trading until after this year, it will be 2 years of control left. That's better than 1 year, but it's still not going to land you a huge haul like someone with 3-4 years of control.