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Terminator

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Everything posted by Terminator

  1. Terminator
    Yeah I agree. They should have a baseline set of assumptions and all writers should use those assumptions. If they want to deviate from those assumptions no problem, just make a disclaimer. But to just start throwing half win per season decline for 31 year old players it gets confusing.
  2. Terminator
    This one: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dexter-fowler-should-age-well-regardless-of-the-defense/ Well if his curve isn't that extreme then it makes it look even better. On a 5 for 80 Fowler could give us a shitload of surplus value. I'll even be more agressive than what you suggest and the deal looks pretty fantastic. Age 31: 2017: $13M: 3.1 WAR Age 32: 2018: $14M: 2.9 WAR Age 33: 2019: $15M: 2.5 WAR Age 34: 2020: $17M: 2.0 WAR Age 35: 2021: $17M: 1.5 WAR
  3. Terminator
    Fangraphs assumes the following age curve for him: So that's wrong?
  4. Terminator
    Yeah that's the other thing. Could he get an Eaton like rise in defensive value from switching from CF to RF or LF? Eaton wasn't very good in CF but in RF he was Jason Heyward-esque.
  5. Terminator
    Steamer thinks his defense is s***, hence the low WAR. There is a big debate about that. He's been pretty bad in the past but was better this year, some think better positioning is mostly what he needed. Prior to playing with the Cubs he played roughly the third most shallow CF in the league. Maddon had him playing deeper and his defense improved greatly. If the Jays analytics department thinks his defense sucks then I'd back off and stick to 4 for 60 something. But if he's near average as some believe then I'd be all over him at 5 for 80.
  6. Terminator
    Age 31: 2017: $13M: 3.1 WAR Age 32: 2018: $14M: 2.6 WAR Age 33: 2019: $15M: 2.1 WAR Age 34: 2020: $17M: 1.6 WAR Age 35: 2021: $17M: 1.1 WAR If you buy in to the WAR aging curve above, he'd provide PLENTY of surplus value on the first three years of the deal. The fourth year gets a little shaky and the last year he's probably a negative asset but inflation would take the sting out of it some. That 13M number in the first year is pretty sexy to me as well. We could easily fill all our other holes without breaking the bank IMO and Bautista wouldn't even be out of the realm of possibility for LF at that point. We'd have a really good team.
  7. Terminator
    Would 5 for 80 be so bad? Not much worse than 4 for 70. The AAV is nice, 15 mil a year is only 1.7 WAR necessary for it to be a wash. Backend the deal a little bit and let inflation do it's work.
  8. Terminator
    Unless there is some trade to be had they really, really need one of the two of them.
  9. Terminator
    Just trying to read through the lines but it seems like the Jays want Fowler and that Bautista could be the fallback plan.
  10. Terminator
    I consider minor league FAs to be filler more than I do depth.
  11. Terminator
    Nice table! On top of your points there are probably 4 or 5 elite relievers like this so its rare to see one hit the open market, this year there just happens to be 2 or 3 depending on one's opinion. So even though the Yanks are a fringey WC team they won't have such an easy time acquiring an elite reliever like this again. Might as well grab him now. I think it's a good deal for the Yanks. I wish the Jays would have offered him slightly more.
  12. Terminator
    Who are you talking about? Chapman? He's been worth almost 3 WAR a year for 4 of the 5 last years.
  13. Terminator
    Home/away splits for Rockies players aren't always reliable because of the "Coors Field Hangover Effect." They seemingly disproportionately suck on the road more than most players.
  14. Terminator
    Change your avatar please.
  15. Terminator
    Yeah let's say he lasts 3 years and then his arm explodes and he limps toward getting 9 WAR for 86 million. Not great but they can eat the 17 million in the last year or two and it won't kill them. They have a pretty solid team this year. They'll compete for a WC IMO and Chapman helps now.
  16. Terminator
    I didn't see a twitter link so thought I'd share. They have a deep farm system so they could sweeten the pot in a hurry. But we have no replacement for Stroman in our rotation and we want to be competitive. Idk, what would they have to throw in on top of Blackmon before you'd do it?
  17. Terminator
  18. Terminator
    Cashman wants to feel clever for trading him and then signing him back.
  19. Terminator
    I love the "@JonHeyman 1st" credit. For one, Heyman said Oberholtzer was a rhp. Two, what a scoop!
  20. Terminator
    FO's like to save that bullet for when they need it as well as it can buy you some time to right the ship if things go wrong. But you fire the manager too often and people will start to wonder if the FO isn't the problem and not the manager.
  21. Terminator
    Happy Birthday
  22. Terminator
    Yeah you can't just throw in a bunch of Top 100 prospects add it all up and expect it to beat a package that includes a Top 3 prospect.
  23. Terminator
    I love how this FO is willing to discuss behind the scenes details. It's refreshing.
  24. Terminator
    Gorbachev probably has the most famous one.
  25. Terminator
    He's probably one of the minor league rotational depth signings that Atkins talked about two days ago.
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