Terminator
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Everything posted by Terminator
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Aledmys Diaz scouted by Blue Jays and others today.
Terminator replied to Angrioter's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I've read the same. His Cuban stats translate horribly to MLB. -
Not concerned in the slightest about missing out on Capuano. Career 4.25 FIP and he's got injury concerns. Also, he's old so the wheels could come off his wagon any year now; at age 35 that is likely to happen sooner rather than later. Also, once signed you put him in the rotation and face even more problems with the out of options pitchers. A Capuano signing basically means we lose one of Rogers or Redmond, two guys who could outproduce Capuano at a fraction of the cost.
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There was also the story this offseason about how AA was shocked he wasn't given a chance to make an offer for Fister. Whoever the writer was (can't remember) mentioned how AA's trade proposals in the past had alienated a lot of the other GM's, including Dombrowski. That could explain why he whiffed on Fister as well as not being able to get Anderson, Samardzija, or anyone else.
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Pitching depth will be a little bit better too. Lost Johnson but Hutchinson, Stroman, and perhaps even Drabek as the 8th or 9th SP is a lot better than last year. Hopefully no more Wang's or Ortiz' of the world.
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Yeah and they are going to need #6 and #7 starters (at least) anyway so Stroman likely still gets his chance while we get to keep a potential serviceable backend guy like Redmond, thus giving us more depth than just starting Stroman in the 5th spot with no Redmond at all.
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To me it seems like AA had no money to spend. So he tried the trade route but he fell flat. You'd think with him being on the hot seat that he'd have a sense of urgency in improving the team but perhaps the trade route could have partially collapsed on him b/c of what was reported earlier in the offseason about him not having the best relationship with the other GM's of the league.
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Post a positive comment about the 2014 Toronto Blue Jays
Terminator replied to Spoonovic's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Despite not adding any FA's and even losing one, we still have more depth at SP this year. So we've got that going for us. -
Perhaps it's a combination of there being more than one way to skin a cat and a lot of luck. But I'm not kidding you, they would likely be ranked last on a list of stat-friendly front offices. IIRC, a Giants executive was running around on the field yelling "f*** Moneyball and the Oakland A's" after their second WS win.
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Sabean is probably the most "anti-stat" GM in the game. His process is completely devoid of sabremetrics. As for the Rays, I admire and respect them. Doesn't mean they are my favorite team because their GM follows a sabremetric approach and they have been winning lately.
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To each their own, but I don't understand the thought process of investing hours in to the Jays only to cheer against them b/c you disagree with how the team was assembled. Take the Giants, for example. Their process is awful but it's lead to two recent WS wins. Should their fans really cheer against the team just because Sabean is the GM? Also, if you become a fan of the Rays because of their process and success does that make one a bandwagon fan? This is a fair question, they sucked for a decade and have only been good for the past 5 years after all.
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So if the Jays played the Rays in the playoffs you'd both cheer for the Rays? (or in Hurl's case, whoever is favorite team is, not sure if Rays)
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If the team is healthy and we see some of the younger players perform better than expected (Goins and Hutchinson particularly) the team can contend. The problem is that we have a lot of injury prone players.
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Top 5 Organizations in baseball.
Terminator replied to Captain Adama's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I believe that's just a post made by a fangraphs poster and not an actual writer. -
So after all of that you end up with what is basically a career year in his age 35 season? Do similar things happen often with your predictive model?
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I'm sure he is a nice guy. No big deal. He seems to know his stuff.
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Why is that so bizzare? I'm making an arguable point (maybe it's not a popular one and perhaps it's wrong but it is certainly arguable) and he dismisses it as "ridiculous" before giving me a mini-lecture on what stats I should use. Me calling him an ******* seemed warranted to me. Or is that out of line? lol
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How do you get a 2.8 WAR for Capuano? He's done that once in his career and it was nearly 10 years ago.
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He's a big boy, he can take it.
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Steamer projects Happ with 1 WAR and CC with 1.6. Oliver has those numbers reversed, 1 WAR for CC and 1.6 for Happ. Numbers taken from fangraphs. And I used past WAR to illustrate how Happ being as good of a pitcher isn't such a "ridiculous" claim as he's basically done it in the most recent past, not as a predictive measure. You're kind of an *******, btw.
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Not joking. Projections are split on who will be better next season. Past two years have been very close in WAR. Capuano is 35, Happ is 31. It's a lot closer than you think.
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No it is not ridiculous. The past two seasons Capuano has put up 3.2 to Happ's 2.9. The projections are split on who will be better next season. A 35 year old Capuano may have the edge, but if so, it isn't by much.
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Chris Capuano is about as good as JA Happ who inspires little confidence. Not sure what the appeal is there.
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He's one of two options?
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So it's worth 22.5 Million? That seems way to high.
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How much is a 2nd round pick worth? If you use the 7.5 WAR number then he only needs 5.2 WAR over three years.
