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Terminator

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Everything posted by Terminator

  1. Terminator
    That might matter a little bit but not sure how much. If you gain runs via offense you'll probably just give them back via defense and the bottom line doesn't change much. Just take the value wherever you can get it.
  2. Terminator
    Right, but you can see the angle they were going for. If he hits 110 wRC+, which I believe he was projected to do at the time, he's an All-Star and should flirt with a Top 5 MVP vote tally. Dude's bat has turned into an almost worst-case scenario and the trade is just kind of meh.
  3. Terminator
    Further to the Varsho in LF point, CF gets a +2.5 positional adjustment and LF/RF get -7.5. So that's 10 runs or a total of 1 win, which seems significant. But that's per 162 games. Nobody is playing that many games so that eats into the run total a little bit. Then factor in that Varsho played 64 games in CF last year and that eats into it even more. Then there's whatever value comes from not having to carry a 4th OF who can play CF (or carrying one that can't really play CF that well). By the time you factor all that in, Varsho's WAR probably got dinged by about 0.2 or so. KK putting up a fat WAR number more than made up for that in '23. Didn't work in 2022.
  4. Terminator
    Yeah bringing him back in 2024 was not the right move. But they don't think in terms of just adding offense like fans do. They try and add value to the team in the most efficient way possible. KK put up nearly a 4 bWAR season last year and 2.8 fWAR which has always hated KK's defense for some reason. Yeah those numbers weren't repeatable but they weren't paying for him to repeat that. They were hoping to get a couple of WAR out of him. His bat completely cratered so it didn't work out, but it also illustrates just how unique of a player he is when he can hit like a pitcher but still put up 0.5 bWAR and 0.1 fWAR.
  5. Terminator
    The Varsho in LF thing is so overblown IMO. It worked out amazingly in year 1. They doubled down on KK in Year 2 and it didn't work, but it's not because Varsho was playing a lot of LF, it was because KK sucked.
  6. Terminator
    Don Mattingly did the impossible, he fixed Vlad Jr.'s swing. Both deserve big extensions.
  7. Terminator
    Yeah Loperfido's defense gives him the edge over Fisher. Even with his slow start at the plate he is accumulating WAR and even if he doesn't improve much there he can be a 4th OF so long as he remains cheap. The general concern that both have Quad-A bats is pretty similar though.
  8. Terminator
    Is Vlad seen as better than Matt Olson was when he signed his extension? Olson was coming off of a 5 WAR season and entering his age 28 year. Vlad will be coming off a similar season and will be entering his age 26 season. Vlad will be able to get more than Olson but it's a good baseline.
  9. Terminator
    I hear you. Analysts often get blown away by the size of contracts. Sometimes the reverse happens though like last year. And the market has changed since the Prince Fielder days. 1B is one of the lesser paid positions now. Matt Olson is a better comparison.
  10. Terminator
    Nice to see them finally roll the dice on a high ceiling guy like Nimmala. If we are going to run Top 5-10 payrolls I kind of like the strategy of trying to hit home runs through the farm system. We can sign 2 WAR guys whenever we want.
  11. Terminator
    I think Passan is right in that the team should wait for FA to play out and try and extend him after Alonso signs. Start negotiations at the beginning of February. I also wonder if he'd be interested in a deferred contract which would superficially pump his number up and also technically make him the highest paid 1B. Not sure how to calculate the deferrals out but let's say he technically got 10 for 300, but enough of it was in deferrals so it was actually 10 for 200 for CBT purposes. Adjust those numbers how you see fit but I wonder if something like that could help make it work for both sides?
  12. Terminator
    Yeah maybe that's wrong. I think I read that on Fangraphs within the past year or two but maybe the narrative is changing. It's hard to quantify too because of a poor team's player hits FA he's guaranteed to be gone.
  13. Terminator
    Nope. It seems like the online fan narrative is that he will want 300M and the team will want to come in under 200. Fans seem to land on 240ish or so? I think the casuals are okay with higher and the stat nerds think below 200.
  14. Terminator
    I think it's very rare for players to go back to their team once they hit free agency.
  15. Terminator
    Yep and Edgar Martinez would get about 7 added or so. Both make sense as it would put Ortiz over 60 WAR, thus making him a bon a fide, but not spectacular HoFer. Edgar would be a cut above that at 72 WAR.
  16. Terminator
    They are under but they are limited on the moves they can make the rest of the year is what it sounds like to me. Can't make endless waiver claims, maybe can't call Votto up, etc. because they are close to the line and those things could push them over. That said, there aren't a ton of moves to be made at this point so it should be fine.
  17. Terminator
    It's tough to say what the prices will be. Chapman was aiming for similar and had to settle for way less.
  18. Terminator
    His 87th percentile 2B defense is holding! Up to +4 OAA on the season. Amazing transformation.
  19. Terminator
    David Ortiz would get about 10 WAR or so added to his career total.
  20. Terminator
    Of the teams not in contention I wonder how many would be if they add 40-60 mil to the payroll this upcoming offseason? That would add several more. This doesn't mean the Jays are any good, it just means that most teams can spend their way into wild card contention in the new playoff format.
  21. Terminator
    Nothing franchise changing but that's a good haul given the rental slop we gave up.
  22. Terminator
    Those aren't 50/50 coin flips though. Gausman is probably a 3+ WAR pitcher. Bo is probably a 3 WAR SS. Springer probably puts up 2 WAR. Vlad probably hits wRC 140+.
  23. Terminator
    This is true, with a good, doesn't even have to be great, offseason they could contend for a Wild Card. This is true of the majority of teams every year now unless you are one of the scum franchises like the Rockies. I think people are conflating could contend for a wild card with whether or not they should.
  24. Terminator
    I always knew they were World Series contenders
  25. Terminator
    They could do the whole kitchen sink approach to 3B again. Only instead of planning on playing Turner 40 games at 3B use Vlad. Between him, Barger (assuming he shows something the rest of the way), Clement and Orelvis they could get league average production there. But yeah I would be interested in what a full season of 3B would like like for him. He's -10 to -15 at 1B for god knows why. Might not be much worse at 3B.
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