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Terminator

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Everything posted by Terminator

  1. Terminator
    Would be good to see Barger have a strong finish to the year. I'm amazed at some of his swings on inside fastballs.
  2. Terminator
    Soto is ridiculous. I cringed while typing his name out. It's not happening. Forgive me. But in this new era of Jays ball we do sign top FAs pretty consistently now. Springer (6 for 150), Gausman (5 for 110), Ryu (4 for 80), traded for Berrios and extended him immediately (7 for 131), Bassitt (3 for 63). We also paid pretty good money for a RP in Chad Green and hand out 1 year 10M-ish deals all the time. Even last year we were among the biggest spenders in AAV we just spread it around. So with 60 mil to spend before we hit the luxury tax and the team targeting older prospects, I think it's a pretty reasonable assumption to think that we will be players in FA this year. We also traded enough guys to get just under the luxury tax and the team seemed to purposefully do that which could be another tell. Whether the team should spend is an entirely different discussion and I agree with you on the team being in limbo. But they do seem to want to try and win in '25 so I think discussing the FAs that aren't Soto is somewhat realistic.
  3. Terminator
    It's hard to fathom the team signing Soto but if they did I could see a scenario where they go after a guy like Scherzer. Blow past the CBT but only for a year.
  4. Terminator
    I eyeballed it and with really rough arb estimates we will have about 180M on the books heading into next year. The CBT threshold will be about 241 mil. We probably have 50-60 mil to spend.
  5. Terminator
    Yeah I was looking into his defense to figure out why he sucks so bad. I think it might be due to plays involving the pitcher? Like he can't feed the pitcher properly or something. Because on plays near the bag he's pretty good but if he has to travel away from the bag (which would require a throw to the pitcher) he's ass. Also, is he really the best at scooping? It's weird because he doesn't look that bad at third. So if he's going to be a -10 to -15 1B every year he might not be much worse at 3rd.
  6. Terminator
    Yeah probably so but even if you play him full time and his play suffers he still puts up above average starting catcher value with the potential for more. Last year is a good example. His defense is really really good. OR, just play him less and play your s***** backup more and you still come out with above average catcher play.
  7. Terminator
    Lol it would be ridiculous but let's say they do some of that stuff. -Sign Bregman tier 3B. -Sign one of the pitchers. -Spend 5 mil on a couple of relievers each. Trade a buffalo boy for another. Dumpster dive the rest to go with the slop we already have. -Forego a LF signing and platoon Loferpido and Schneider in LF. Probably don't lose that much. -Just roll with Kirk and dumpster dive the other C. -Sign an okay DH. That's probably a wild card contender. I mean it's still insane because you are talking about spending big bucks just to get to wild card contender status. But I think that's where we're at.
  8. Terminator
    Yeah but if they did that all of that they would be f***ing STACKED and could go toe to toe with the AL East. These are the Steamer Projections. This lineup would be very very good. C- Kirk 4 WAR 1B- Vlad 3.8 WAR 2B- Horwitz 3.3 WAR 3B- Bregman/Kim/Adames (3.4-3.8) SS- Bo 3.3 WAR LF- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR? CF- Varsho 2.9 WAR RF- Springer 2.4 WAR DH- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR? but DHing would revise it down Bench- Is going to be an above average big league bench with all the buffalo boys. For pitchers I'm not going to use Steamer200IP because it's stupid. None of the starters will hit 200 innings so I'll use your projections and some Steamer600 I revise down. 1. Snell/Fried/Burnes 3.5ish+ WAR 2. Gausman 3.5 3. ??? Just sign a guy with a pulse to give you 1 or 2 WAR and this rotation is Top 10ish 4. Bassitt 2.5 5. Berrios 1.5 Yariel projects great but he's hard to trust Bloss should be ok depth Then you say fix the bullpen and add a legitimate backup catcher and that team would be really damn good. Would compete for the AL East.
  9. Terminator
    It's not good but I don't know that it's quite that dire. If they did everything on that list they would be pretty damn stacked. Do about half of it (or all of it halfway) and I think "the WC3 will be easy to make." I don't think we need a #1 Catcher. Kirk got off to a slow start but has been hitting fine since late April, his xstats are fine, and he has elite D to go with it. He also has the 25th highest Steamer600 WAR in baseball right now. They need 2 or 3 bats and there are different ways to do it. Sign a Tier 2 FA like Bregman, Kim or Adames and then get a couple of decent bats in LF and DH. The rotation definitely needs a solid starter but I'm not sure it needs an ace AND a mid rotation guy. If they got a #2 SP and bumped Bloss to AAA as depth that might be enough. The bullpen is a mess but that is the easiest fix. Trade one or two of our bench guys (we have a bunch) and make 2 or 3 signings and it could be ok enough. Seems pretty daunting but the AAV room is there on the payroll I think. Even so, that's spending like 60 mil in AAV to only become wild card contenders. Not great.
  10. Terminator
    Well he was an honorable mention by Fangraphs on June 19 but he was 22 in A+. Since then he has been promoted to AA which is a big jump and has continued to rake in over 100 ABs. Not seeing where they rank him 29th now but the difference between 29th and 12 could be as small as moving someone from 40 to 45. And smacking around AA pitching after a promotion would be enough to move someone up that small bit.
  11. Terminator
    McAdoo went 2 for 4 of Skenes in college. He's got to be decent.
  12. Terminator
    KK will def get traded somewhere. Hoping Bassitt and Green get dealt too.
  13. Terminator
    Yes, exactly.
  14. Terminator
    Tom Tango says to ignore this as it's mostly just noise. Vlad's career numbers line up with his xstats otherwise. Yes, but that only explains why his 2024 is so much better than his 2023. And that's true. His xstats are better in 2024 and so are his real stats. It doesn't explain why his stats were so much worse than his xstats in 2023.
  15. Terminator
    So basically: 1- He was only a 1 WAR player last year due to bad luck. He was more like a 3 WAR player with normal luck. 2- Throw out your notions of him being a perpetual underperformer of his xStats because he can't pull the ball in the air. It's only happened to him one season in his career and Tom Tango says to ignore it. This is hard to do because it's really ingrained groupthink on the board. But his xStats are the real deal. So with 1 and 2 in mind, that should make an extension for Vlad more palatable to most people here. Definitely doesn't mean it's an open and shut case and there are plenty of arguments against it. But Vlad has been a better player than he gets credit for here.
  16. Terminator
    Oh I'm not saying his 2023 was as good as this year because it wasn't, he's trending to get 4.5 WAR this year. But 2023 also wasn't the 1 WAR disaster that it looked like. fWAR is calculated using his wOBA which was .340 in 2023 and is pretty darn bad for a 1B. If they used his xwOBA of .378 instead, his WAR would have shot up dramatically. And the reason for the difference between his wOBA and xwOBA is mostly due to luck. He wasn't really a 1 WAR pumpkin in 2023 is all I'm saying. If he was a 3 WARish player last year, and he actually kind of was, it makes for a different conversation when discussing an extension for him.
  17. Terminator
    If they had any balls they'd back the truck up for Snell knowing that they can just develop more prospects anyway. Burnes and Snell in the playoffs with that lineup would have a great shot to win it all
  18. Terminator
    I would like to point out that both Tom Tango and I, two brilliant baseball minds, said to ignore all the pulled ball BS the board was buying into with regard to Vlad and that his xwOBA would normalize. Sure enough, that seems to be the case. Please clap. So him sucking ass in 2023 is probably just bad luck as much as anything else. He underperformed his xwOBA by 38 points which helped crush his WAR. This year he started off similarly but it is finally starting to normalize, just like every other year in his career. I only point this out because his 2023 season seems to be one of the biggest arguments that scares people away from not wanting to extend him. But in retrospect, that season just isn't as bad as it looks, him being fat and a liability on defense aside. It was just unlucky.
  19. Terminator
    His team is really smart. Not sure how much of this was planned but it's working out great for them. s*** talk the Yankees and talk for years about wanting an extension to stay in Toronto forever. This has endeared him to the fanbase who is now willing to completely overlook his down years. Walk back the Yankee comment, double down on the extension and now he just so happens to be on one of the greatest heaters of his career. The fans are hellbent on resigning this guy now and he's putting up the numbers to justify a big extension. Good chance he gets it.
  20. Terminator
    Doesn't seem like the injury concerns and diminished stuff are worth the 2 extra years of control they are getting
  21. Terminator
    For the love of god please trade Chris Bassitt
  22. Terminator
    Surely they will get under it, especially if they want to compete next year. They are so damn close.
  23. Terminator
    Trade Bo and sign Kim or Adames; the classic mock offseason switcheroo
  24. Terminator
    Don't forget the 10 year, 300 million dollar Vlad extension.
  25. Terminator
    Yeah and I would have him there to start next year too. He needs to be 2025 SP depth IMO. If he's in the rotation to start the year that doesn't bode well for our chances to contend.
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