Olerud363

Grichuk and Teoscar should be in there too. The have a good chance to be 2-3 WAR pieces in the corners (not everyone is going to get 8 WAR, in fact no one, or almost no one will, barring Vlad going on a diet, or Bichette reaching his high end... )

Who says he doesn't have power?? He's slugged .485 the last couple of years. In 528 at bats he has 39 doubles, 3 triples, and 14 homers. His power is fine. If Jansen "doesn't have power"... how would you describe Roman Fields say?? Over the last two years Roman has the same number at bats as Jansen My name is Jansen I have no power - (~528 at bats, 39 doubles, 3 triples, 14 homers) My name is Fiellds XXXXXXXXXXX - (~540 at bats, 18 doubles, 6 triples, 1 homer) I put XXXXXXXXX here because if Jansen has no power, I have no clue how we describe Roman. Negative power?? WTF. Jansen has clear line drive power. Jansen - I have a .480 sluggin percentage, I have no power. Fields - I have a .330 slugging percentate, XXXXXXXXXXXX Again, if Jansen (.480 slugging) has no power, I have no clue how you describe Fields (.330 slugging).

He's been really good at triple a - he had a seemingly flukey start his first time out, 8 runs or something in like an inning, but since then has been lights out.

What?? Where did I claim I'm expert?? I'm just listening to what they are saying "re-evaluated". Do you guys understand english here?? Re-evaluated, means in 4 weeks they will decide what to do, it could be a 2-3 week rehab, in which case he may be back for August, it could be surgery, in which case he has a 6-9 month recover, and hopefully he's good to go for spring training. I'm not an expert, and no where do I claim I am. I am a college educated human being who knows the following 1. Re-evaluated - I know the meaning of this word. 2. Tendons - I know what these are, they are basically connectors between muscle and bone. Sometimes these tear. Often times when they tear you need surgery. Often times with little tears, you first attempt to rest and rehab. 1. Rest and rehab - rest part takes 4 weeks, rehab 2-4 weeks, in which case Vlad only returns for a couple of weeks at the end of August 2. Surgery - these tendon things sometimes tear completely, sometimes there are smaller tears which do not heal, and you still need surgery. I am not an expert, but you guys aren't understanding the potential seriousness of any tendon injury.

I'm not pushing hard for him to be injured. I would love nothing more than Vladdy to be successful, and to be the player we all want him to be. However I've also been following baseball for 30 years and in that time you learn to read between the lines on injury reports. They explicitly did not say "out for 4 weeks", they said re-evaluated in four weeks. That means he's not even going to be cleared for baseball activity for atleast four weeks, and that's the best case scenario. Maybe he'll be back for August. And maybe not. They don't have a time table, it's a tear in a ligament (a strain is a tear), so it very well could be more serious, and an even longer term thing.

Not out for a month, re-evaluated in a month, best case scenario is 6 weeks, assuming they give him the green light. That's unlikely. The way these things go, he'll need surgery and we'll be lucky to see him this time next year. Keep in mind, what they tell us, needs to multiplied by 3. Donaldson day to day, means Donaldson out for 20 days. Vlad "re-evaluated" in 4 weeks, means he refused the surgery he needs, and they have to wait four weeks to convince him, so he's gonna miss another month next year, because he didn't get the surgery he needs promptly.

It's a black mark on his record. Once players start missing significant chunks of a season, that is often a sign the trend will continue. I remember this happened to Travis D'Arnaud, and he was never able to play regularly in the majors. Nick Johnson was once the Vladdy of his time, and his minor injuries, were a sign of things to come.

This is idiotic. People aren't trolling here, just reading between the lines. He's fat, he went to see a specialist, and now he's been diagnosed with a stained pateller ligament, and will sit for four weeks before even being re-evaluated. The so-called trolls have been right so far. His season is likely over, and this likely changes his long outlook hugely. He's no longer a super-prospect, but a guy with serious injury question marks.

And once you see specialist, there is no way you play for atleast 1 month... so he probably doesn't get 100 games this year, if he comes back at all.

Yes, but fat 19 year old with bad knees seeing specialist is not good. Bo Bichette jams finger out for 5 days, comes back in 6 days - that's "injuries happen" Vlad Guerrero - Sore leg, no big deal, out for 2 games, on dl but should be fine, going to see specialist -- all in 4 day period... that's not just injuries happen, that's the first sign of a fat man who is going to have problems.

It has ended... Vlad Guerrero Jr era officially over -- career stats using new "bad f***ing knees" model 2018 (19) - .402 11 52 (out for season) 2019 (20) - dnp (cleared for running in June, but never makes it back until Arizona fall league) 2020 (21) - aa .265 17 65 2021 (22) -aaa .227 11 48 2022 (23) - aaa .280 22 80 2023 (24) - Blue Jays .255 19 58 2024 (25) - Blue Jays .320 9 32 (hot start, but reconstructed knees flare up and does not play after May 30th) 2025 (26) - Blue Jays .244 27 88 (sadly he's Kendry Moralles) 2026 (27) - Oakland ..300 29 79 (showing some of the old magic) 2027 (28) - Oakland .297 15 55 (OK, but can't keep healthy) 2028 (29) - Oakland .255 21 56 (those knees) 2029 (30) - Baltimore .197 2 12 retired -- Oh what could of been but never was -- lesson is, don't get fat kids,.

Late June - Knee Surgery - out one year. June 2019 - cleared to run September 2019 sent to Arizona fall league struggles.... 2020 -- back in aa - just not the same .260 17 75 season... doesn't make it to aaa 2021 -- in Buffalo -- has Rowdy Tellez like bad year 2022 -- repeats Buffalo, somewhat better, .280 22 80 season 2023 -- makes Blue Jays at age 24 -- struggles 2024 -- Hot start, injured, only plays 45 games 2025 -- 140 games struggles, bad D, bad baserunning, fat, negative WAR. 2026 traded to Oakland Athletics, has a few OK years, but not that great.

Exactly. I have tempered my expectations for Vlad a lot.... bad knees at 19?? Sorry, it's the blue jays, no superstar for us. An unknown Yankee prospect will have the career we expected for Vlad, he will be fun, he will bring them joy, Some one we don't know from the Yankees === .335 .420 .610 career and bringing joy to all the yankee boys and girls. Vlad Guerrero Jr, an old man, with bad knees at 19 -- to bad, Jesus Montero floor, Nick Johnson ceiling... Blue Jays fans don't get anything nice ever.

I watch to hear what Pat and Buck think about the prospects. I am making a top 100 prospect list, and am curious what they think. (Don't worry I have many sources for my top 100 list, including my own Deep Neural Network stats analysis, and some live scouting, so Pat and Buck's opinion will only count a little, I still like to hear it though). Preview of my list... 1. Anthony Alford - despite bad stats so far this year, his athleticism and tradition of on base skills, leads to a projection of 5.8 WAR per year (think .290 .390 .430 with +++++ baserunning and defense). Based on 5.8 WAR per year projection he is the top prospect. 2. Vlad Guerrero JR - awesome stats so far, admittedly 100* better than Alford, however we sadly project negative baserunning and defense, based on too much icecream and Poutine. Think .335 .410 .570, with negative baserunning and defense leading to 5.7 WAR per year, almost as good as Alford but not quite. The rest of the top 100 Jays prospects list will appear soon.

Olerud 91-93 - ~ 14 WAR, beat Carter in 92 as well as 93 Olerud 94-96 ~ 8 WAR Carter -1... At this point, Olerud is platooned, sits against right handers when Carter needs 1b, or Brumfield needs to play and without being injured gets only 384 at bats. Olerud 97-99 - 18 WAR If Jays treat Olerud properly, and ditch Carter, they are more competitive (+.500) in 97, likely win a wild card in 98 (replace Canseco 1 WAR with Olerud 8 WAR), and perhaps in 99 (replace Willie -WAR Greene with Olerud). Then maybe everything is different (playoffs in late 90s = more revenue = less dry spells) EDIT: Delgado DHs, he should of been a DH all along.

Who is the greatest 19 year old of all time?? Mantle, Griffey, harper come to mind... They hit .265 .340 .450 or so... they were all very similar.

If his outcome is Hinske as a hitter that would in all seriousness, be seriously great if he can play multiple positions (ss, 2b, 3rd).... It would basically be inverting Hinske's defensive spectrum, instead of 3b->1b, you'd have 3b->ss... that would be a great outcome. He would be a regular super-utility

Dick_Pole - thank you for fighting. Bryce Harper, did very little at aa and aaa (Syracuse) yet was quickly called up by the Washington Nationals. He didn't even slug .400 at either double or triple a. You can look that up. Still he was anointed a job in the major leagues at 19. Now where is Vladdy?? I don't see him up here yet, even though he doing better than Harper did at double a. Justin Trudeau must intervene and force the Blue Jays to call up Vladdy, if not it is obvious racism and Trudeau in a nationally televised speech must revoke the Blue Jays license to play at the Rogers Center. Business licenses, are only given to equal opportunity employers.

Wow! One of the stupidest things, and most wrong things I've said on this board, is that Dalton Pompey had a chance to be better than Mookie Betts. At the time Betts and Pompey had similar looking minor league stats (if you squinted a lot, didn't look at strike outs, and put a really, really, heavy emphasis on 2014). And according to my expert scouting based on height, weight, and TV highlights, Pompey appeared to more physical, and I thought his power would develop better. I thought this because I saw him hit a homerun on TV that looked like it was hit really hard... and Mookie looked wimpy. I was rightly called out by people on this board. That "prediction" is not only wrong, but as wrong as it could possibly be, with Pompey playing about 10 games since then.. That being said Dalton Pompey is closer to Betts in career WAR, then Betts is to Mike Trout. Dalton Pompey's career on base percentage is about as far from Mookie Bett's career on base percentage, as Bett's is from Trouts. Not exactly (.291 to .355 to .410), but if Trout got hot, and Bett's slumped, and Pompey came up as 26th man for a double header and went 2/3 with a hbp.... Then it would be true.

Are those real quotes by scouts or executives or something?? Are you kidding me??

How about Blue Jays Message Board buy a couple of exclusive games for next year, and only loyal members get to watch the game??

So I'm honestly a little confused with this situation. Why DL him?? Did a new injury appear this week, or did the original injury all of a sudden get worse?? He looked fine at the plate, and was getting the job done in the field. Fangraphs still had him as a plus on defense. He just hit a 400 foot line drive grandslam Monday night. Two days later he's on the DL with no specific time table?? Some good questions in the thread. Let's look at the facts. 1. Donaldson was still helping the team, and was basically the Jays best player up until Tuesday. 2. The American League has a DH. Our DH is hurt. 3. If he is still helping, and he has the option to DH why not DH, and do the throwing program on the side? 4. Even if he can't throw, he still could be average on defense. This may be hard to believe to the "super-scout" types, but there aren't a tonne of plays that require an all-out throw. Donaldson, can no longer make those plays, but that isn't as big of a deal as people think. He was still making most of the plays at third. Hell, even the first game when he was throwing 40, he still made all the plays, even though he looked ridiculous. The only reason to DL Donaldson, is if he got significantly worse mid week, or if the Jays think by playing, he could end up getting a significant injury.

You don't understand the game boxcar. The longball works in the regular season because you aren't facing top starters... and even when you are they aren't throwing all-out. Big difference facing Verlander on a lazy Thursday afternoon late August (dog days) than early October (cool weather, big stage). Take the Red Sox. Their offense is not just based on the long ball. They have well rounded hitters in Betts, Pedroia, Bennintendi, they are a doubles team, a steals team, a line drive team, a base running team. They were weak in the long ball department, but stellar every where else. They do it the right way. When the weather cools, and the top pitchers bring their A-game all these factors come into play. That's why the red sox have excelled in the playoffs the last 2 years. They don't rely just on the long ball thing, because they know it won't be there in October. In October their line drives, steals and clutch hitting leads to victory. Red Sox could easily hit 220, 230 homers. You don't think Benintendi can drive the ball?? Even Pedroi has 20 homer power, but he concentrates on line drives, because he knows those homers don't do s*** in October. Learn the game bud!

Pillar and Diaz are decent enough for 8/9 hitters... far from "black holes". In terms of career OPS they have like 100 points, on Darwin/Goins. If both could hit at career averages they would be outstanding 8/9 hitters. Note: Diaz was good in 2016 bad in 2017, if he splits the difference he would be a great asset.

Well.. it was definately Buck in the 90s... Either with Schulman or Hughson... Buck is OK as a color guy.