Olerud363

No. Buck goes back to the 80s. Broke his leg in 85 and became an announcer soon after. Buck has been around literally as long as some of us semi-older guys (40ish guys who began following as kids in the 80s) have... Kind of weird, with the retirement of Howarth, Buck is like the last announcer connection to the "glory days" Buck had to take a little break, and become Orioles announcer from 2003-2009, on account of him hating the J.P. Riccardi regime, for firing him as manager. As soon as "the Beast" fired Riccardi, Buck was back.

Kind of laughing at the fact they don't say anything nice about Wilner. The Wagner guy they are all like "A distinctive style who will be part of the next generation". And Wagner hasn't even broadcast a game yet. But Wilner... nothing. Poor Wilner. They should of least given a quick BIO. "Mike Wilner has been part of the team for almost two decades. In his younger days he was a fiesty guy with an attitude, he once challenged former Manager Cito Gaston in a press conference. We suspended him for two days, and had to cut his balls off. Yes we literally cut his balls off. After that he still had a bit of an attitude, but it was mostly directed to the fans."

How could they diss Gibby like that?? On the off chance that they don't play .700 ball until All Star Break 2019... John still has an excellent chance at beating Gaston late in 2019. edit... OK they'd have to average 87 the next two years to get gibby there, but that's the kind of thing Gibby is good at. Quietly get the Jays in a couple of wild card chases and maybe outside shot at division tile, using old country wisdom (combined with new fanged stats from front office)

?? John Gibbons has managed about 9 seasons, Gaston did 10+. John Gibbons is 720-700, Gaston is 894-837. By my calculation Gibbons will take over top spot before All Star Break 2019. (Yes. I realize that means he'll have to manage at a aproximately .700 winning percentage to achieve that goal... but as others point out he is a legend, he can do it. The Jays can do it. That fat kid will be up before long (sooner than you think) and help Gibbons to this goal).

It was a minor injury and basically just shut him down for a week, so he wasn't on schedule to start opening day. In spring training they slowly build up to being able to handle 7 innings/100 pitches. Stroman is probably at 5 right now. So he could of started opening day, but would of been on a 70 or so pitch limit, thus better to have him pitch 4th or 5th in the rotation, and have him available for 90 pitches.

Wow. Nice easy power for Bichette. Off the bat I thought the Vlad double was a single to center, then the outfielder started going back, so I figured it was a line drive in the gap.

You should reach out to the Original Poster. He found a great board that is very intellectual, talks a lot of stats, and has well adjusted mature posters. He really found a great board. The issue is, that he won't tell us, what board he decided on. You need to track down the Halladay fan guy, figure out where he went, and go there. (p.s. I think most people here, including myself, are totally happy to have you here, if you so desire, we just don't want you missing out on the better board, just cuz the Halladay fan guy kept it's location a secret)

Buck - It's late September, and Pillar has kept it up all year. He still has an outside shot at the batting title, he just got his 200th hit, and he's just had an unbelievable season. Pat - It's really been incredible. Even the advanced stats love him now. Our statistician tells us he has almost 6 WAR. That's 5th in the league. Buck - Only negative, is his defence is declining. Only 5 runs above average, and he was at 20 a few years ago. Thanks to an astute fan Mikeleelop for pointing that out. Pat - It's because he dives and it's going to cost him in the MVP voting. Everyone I talked to said they probably won't even put him in their top 10. Even though he's top 5 by our old drunk x-player standards, and by fangraphs we just can't vote for him Buck - Yeah. Thanks to Mikeleelop for making that point. Pillar has the surprise season of a generation, with his hit tool now at 70, is slightly above average in centerfield, but we won't vote for him in the MVP contest. Pat - he just dives to much. Common sense.

Stat scouting it looks like he actually he has a pretty good eye and good line drive power for a guy who can't hit for average. He's like a .230 hitter with 10 homer power...

Hi Is it possible that you can keep in touch?? I am very curious what board you decide to join in the end. Just like to know what board you found that fits your personality and skill set. Is it a smarter board?? Younger?? Hipper?? More elite?? Higher level of education?? Less oddballs?? Could you also let me know if while searching for a high quality message board, if you come across a guy name "Moogie"?? I've always wondered what happened to him.

He didn't stick around long enough to really contribute to that. It would of been interesting to see his thoughts on that thread. This board has done a pretty good job analyzing Pillar using the techniques we have access to, we totally understand that his numbers this year depend on his strength and whether he is trying to hit home runs. I put it in a table. It would be fascinating if the OP can come back and post, maybe after he finds his SABR board, he can run our analysis of Pillar by them and let us know what they think. Pillar Weak - Trying to hit home runs - .250 10 55 Weak - Not trying to to hit home runs - .275 12 70 Strong - Trying to hit home runs - .260 15 70 Strong - Not trying to hit home runs - .320 20 90

It's a great place with some of the best analysis around. In terms of prospects, there is no better place, In fact one poster once went to the trouble of compiling a top 100 Blue Jays prospect list. Not top 100 in baseball mind you, but top 100 Blue Jays prospects. People tend to like mega threads rather than lots of threads. That's OK once you get used to it.

Jerry was great. As much as I've dissed Wilner (mostly for being a corporate shill at times), I'd actually like to see him take over, and hope he has long run. His play by play has improved greatly over the years, and I think it's important to have someone in the booth who has been involved with the team for a generation or two, and knows the history.

And by the way Key22, my silly rant has nothing to do with you, I think you pose an interesting question. I just can see, that certain people, will start claiming that "Most people don't have any common sense, WAR has been shown to be clearly wrong some of the time and common sense projections are needed for the cases WAR isn't good at.",

Teams are rarely projected to win 100 games... the reason being that predictions don't predict lucky outliers. Teams that win 100 usually have luck (good health, surprise performances, no surprise negatives, etc.). So for a 100 win team WAR predicts 90 -- then luck ticks it up to 100. The WAR predictions will be off enough that people will start claiming "WAR is a bunch of crap, by god, me and my Uncle Ted, 83 years young, Ted saw every game since 1977, half of them in black and white, we predicted the standing with know-how. Ya can't beat know-how, and that's something the eggheads need to learn" So what is really needed is rigorous testing of multiple prediction systems. Over a series of years fangraphs WAR could be tested against other systems, including "you and Uncle Ted". Neither will be perfect. I'm rambling a bit, but I just want to really emphasize, testing WAR predictions alone is useless and dangerous. The errors will be used as evidence by people that "good old common sense and scout's intuition" beats WAR. That's not true. Ya gotta test both, and see which one makes better predictions. Testing WAR alone - NOT A GOOD THING. WHAT IS THE BASELINE?? Testing WAR vs alternative - YES. DO THIS. VERY GOOD. You and the super scouts, and Uncle Ted vs. Fangraphs. Compare all systems.

Escobar wasn't traded for nothing, he was part of Marlins trade, but kind of a weird part, as he was essentially traded for a guy (Reyes) who was about the same, but flashier and way more expensive. Weird. If Escobar doesn't where the eye black, the "big" move of that offseason could of been something completely different.

I believe it was Monday (Morrow in middle of Cy Young type season out for 3 months with lat? issue) Wednesday - Kyle Drabek leaves in 4th inning or so to go have Tommy John surgery for second time Friday - Drew Hutchinson (in middle of dark house Rookie of the year campaign) leaves in 1st inning to go have TJ surgery. And... 1 month later - Jose Bautista, on track for 3rd straight homerun crown, busts wrist hitting (almost) homerun... hooks foul at the end to add insult to the injury. some time after that (can't remember exact date) -> Brett Lawrie, 3rd best young property in game (really he was at that moment) after Trout and Harper dives head first into Yankee Stadium camera bay. That was really the end of Brett Lawrie. Never did much after that moment. Then -> Travis Snider/Eric Thames, former best left handed hitting prospect, and really awesome left handed hitting prospect traded for relievers after value tanks. Oh yeah, at some moment before all that Adam "Sweet Swing" Lind, once thought of as a potential batting champ, has to go to minors. What else?? Henderson Alvarez, thought of as potential "Pedro Lite" has incredibly bad season. Yunel Escobar where's antigay eye black and must be traded for nothing. I am sure there was more... Colby Rasmus, once thought of as potential all star craps out... Finally manager John Farrell decides to leave (wouldn't you?)

Just looking at fWAR it actually looks pretty even. I'm not sure about the contracts, but I assume both have 3 years of control left, somewhat cheap. The wrinkle is Salazar has put up his numbers despite missing 40% of time. So if he could be healthy for an entire year, he'd be way more valuable than Pillar. To answer weather the Jays are better with Salazar and Cain, you have to compare them to Pillar and Mr. X. Where Mr. X. is whoever Jays can get using free agent money on a pitcher instead of Cain.

Keep in mind that Manny Lee had a very good offensive year for the 1992 Jays (.343 on base percentage), and that the 1993 team had Tony Fernandez, who hit .300 after arriving from the Mets. And also Devon White was a very good offensive player from 1991 to 1993. White was about +30 on offense and +70!!! on defense (according to fangraphs). Pillar the last 3 years has been -20 on offense and +50 on defense. Also take the late 90s Yankees. Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter were bad defensive players, And they had Chuck Knobloch at second. Posada was OK defensively, but as a unit they were horrible defensively but awesome hitters. The 1985 cardinals had most of their offense from the Ozzie Smith, Tom Herr, and Willie Mcgee. All three were good defensively as well. Anyway throughout time there has been no magic formula. Good teams choose good players. In fact good teams, are probably less attached to prototypes (up the middle players need to be good defensively) than bad teams, and will gladly take good offensive players even if their defense isn't up to par at the position.

Todd one thing I think you are forgetting in your analysis is that the Jays have Anthony Alford who is extremely under-rated by the projection systems because of his late start and unusual football background. Alford, is probably the best athlete in the system bar none. He also has a great eye at the plate. His minor league stats, show this (.280 .375 .400 or so), but that is only scratching the surface, because Alford was learning so much in the minor leagues. .300 .400 .450 is not out of range for Alford, which with his projected defense could be an impact 6-8 WAR players. There is no telling how great Alford could become if his power develops. So Alford could be the impact player that brings the Jays from 83 wins to almost 90. Alford my friend, Alford, the scouts already like him, the statheads already like him, and he could be the biggest upside wild card in baseball history.

The offseason isn't over yet. This is the type of team where adding 5 wins has huge value... easier said then done, but if they can get to an 88 projection that would put them right in the wild card, and AL east fight.

Fangraphs has them at 83, only one spot out of the playoffs. The projections take into account age and depth... Or do you think fangraphs forgot to put in aging curves and depth charts?? If so let them know, so they can correct the mistake. They have some really good programmers and if you can point them to the right aging curve and depth chart they can improve their projections.

If this happens won't be a bad thing. They get a 1/1, and have an excellent chance of getting a Kris Bryant Type who they can push to be ready in 2020 (to join Vlad and In 2020 they could very well have an awesome 21 year old core. Note. I doubt they win 50 games. Math projects about 85 (as far as I know) and they still have 15 million to play with.

Tulo and Travis may also be healthier. I think a 3+ WAR increase in middle infield production is probably reasonable. In fact it looks like Tulo, Travis, Diaz and Solarte are projected for 5 WAR over 320 games. It was probably 0 WAR last year.

No. According to the fangraphs Goins is a 0 WAR player. According to the fangraphs Diaz is a 0.5 WAR player in 43 games. If he has to play 120 games, Diaz is projected to be 1.5 WAR better than Goins. It would be awesome if Tulo is healthy though.