Olerud363

Rance Mulliniks was pretty good too. This is a dumb conversation. Hitting has three components, power, average and patience. Ted Williams combined all three better than anyone. In modern day baseball Frank Thomas was good in his 20s. Barry Bonds was good and had more homeruns than strikeouts the year he turned 40. There has been no one, that I am aware of that could do what Ted Williams could do. Barry Bonds took every drug known to man, and I think he may have got so strong, he could cut down his swing, still hit for power, and cut his k-rate way down. So for his best four year stretch, Barry Bonds, almost did what Ted Williams could do. Bonds had more power. But it took every drug known to man to do it. Bonds was good. He was at a Frank Thomas/Edgar Martinez level before 2000.

This thread is so full of s***. Trout and Pujols have awesome power. Their not using line drive goodness to hit 375 foot floaters to the opposite field. 1. Trout and Pujols have hit some of the longest homeruns in Angels/Cardinals history 2. http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/01/18/106693382/blast-those-offseason-blues-away-the-10-longest-home-runs-of-2014-in-gifs Trout hit the longest homerun of 2014. 489 feet. He has as much power as anyone. 3. I am guessing both had higher line drive percentages then say Mike Stanton, thus hit for higher average 4. Trout strikes out an amazing amount for a .320 hitter. Does he have one of the highest batting average in play ever?? Fact is Trout and Pujols have awesome power. John Olerud 1993, or Wade Boggs 1987 (when weird ball made his line drives go over the fence) are examples of good line drive hitters, also getting homers. Trout/Pujols have as much a power tool as a hit tool. Pujols has won 2 homer titles, 1 batting title. Trout Pujols Strong. Hit ball a mile, when in air. Pujols (prime, and even now) doesn't strike out. Trout strikes out, but runs well, so probably gets more infield hits.

Agree with you on that. Howard had better minor league numbers, and a better break-out season (kept it up for 162 games). Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, guys who strike out 200+ times don't have a run as "best hitter in baseball". Kind of more like .240 hitters with 35-40 homers. Really good hitters strike out about half as much, Pujols, Frank Thomas. Mike Trout I guess is an exception. A great hitter striking out 150 times a year... but 150 isn't 200 and Trout is a freak.

Lot's of players that k that much become successful Which one is Hernandez age 24?? Which one is Aaron Judge age 24?? ** G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OB SLG 93 410 352 62 95 18 1 19 65 5 0 47 98 .270 .366 .489 104 452 396 67 105 26 5 18 66 16 8 47 102 .265 .352 .492 ** He probably won't be Aaron Judge, because Aaron Judge (so far) is the 1/100 that is better in the majors. Just saying lots of players that k a lot are successful.

It's well known that amphetamine use was common in baseball in the 1960s. Jim Bouton talked about it a lot in his book "ball 4". It's also well known that some modern players can get an exception, and are allowed to use ADHD medicine legally. He is wondering if Stanton has an exception.

I have memories of guys like this, still hanging around in the late 80s, when I first started following baseball. My recolection is that really low k and bb rates were common then. Though maybe my memory is playing tricks on me. The only guy I could find that was comparable, was Bill Buckner https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bucknbi01.shtml Maybe other people will remember others....

If you judge him by his career stats, you are still acknowledging his improvement, as it is in the career stats. Think about it this way, if he was a career .340 .420 .500 milb hitter, we'd all be anointing him as a star. Most knowledgeable fans, are just acknowledging that he is now interesting. He's a career .270 .360 .400 hitter with great k-bb ratio. That itself isn't bad. Actually his minor numbers aren't that different than Russel Martin http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=431145#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

The problem isn't just 'stat-scouting', it's bad 'stat-scouting'. A good 'stat-scout' will look at his entire record and avoid putting too much weight an anecdotes and observations, good stat-scouts just look at the stats. Right now people, are looking at his 2017 stats only, and justifying that by the narrative that his glasses fixed things. So they actually aren't stats-scouting. His k/bb has always been good (about 1-1), but his numbers have bounced around. He's never had more than 200 at bats, with one team in one year. So looking at his stats line, you see .210s, and .340s, and it looks like a pattern. A good stats scout would acknowledge it could be random and just go by his career line (.270 .360 .400 or so). Interestingly, if you look at his level by level numbers they are a bit more consistent.... telling the story of a guy who had a bit of bad luck in low A, and is super-hot in AAA right now, but basically has consistent numbers as he moved up each level... LEVEL G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS GO/AO AAA 13 40 8 19 34 4 1 3 8 8 0 2 0 0 .475 .563 .850 1.413 0.90 AA 52 179 23 52 75 15 1 2 20 22 2 19 1 0 .291 .378 .419 .797 1.05 A(Adv) 85 310 37 86 117 13 0 6 41 30 0 54 7 1 .277 .355 .377 .733 0.73 A(Full) 46 160 19 33 53 8 0 4 27 19 0 22 2 0 .206 .299 .331 .630 0.70 ROK 84 268 45 70 103 15 0 6 40 40 0 34 2 1 .261 .372 .384 .756 1.01

Travis Snider was stocky... but nothing terrible. Snider failed because a) injuries strikeouts (maybe) c) anger issues d) Cito (not compatible with c) I followed Snider's career pretty closely. He was injured every year. In 2010, he had the most significant injury. In may 2010 Snider and Bautista were heating up, they were playing the texas rangers. Snider hit one 430 feet into the second deck, then he left the game his next at bat. He had messed up his wrist on a routine swing. That was really it for his Blue Jays career. He hung around for a couple of years after that, making 3 week cameos, then was traded for Brad Lincoln.

I think he is acknowledging that Beltre better than Schmidt, goes against the numbers, kind of like Carter better than Bautista. Schmidt is 100+ WAR, 2400 games, Beltre 80ish WAR 2700 games, according to the robots.

How old is Gruber again?? 50+?? Jose at 36 is still basically in his prime as a Sprinter, age-graded sprint times don't really start degrading a lot until after 40. Carl Lewis was still competitive in his late 30s. A 40 year old (Kim Lewis) has broken 10 seconds for 100 meter. However after 40 times begin to degrade. The 50 year old 100 meter record is 10.88 almost a second slower. By 55 it is another half second slower. Given Jose's 25 meters per second he could run 13 seconds for 100 m. It's possible in an all out sprint, after accelerating, Jose could do 12.5. It's possible he might be slower. I don't know. How long is the race again?? So if Gruber is at 12.5 per 100 m at 50, that would be a really competitive time for a 50 year old. He could do very well in local track meets. Is Gruber actually training as a sprinter right now?? It's pretty hard to just show up and run a 12-13 second 100 meter. If you've ever just gone out with your buddies and run a 100 meter, the fast guys are lucky to break 13, and the slow guys are 15. That is at age 20. Of course the fast guys can improve there 13 seconds, to under 12 with proper training. OK enough rambling 2 main questions... 1. Is Gruber currently training as a sprinter, or otherwise training for a sport which speed is important?? 2. How fast was Gruber in his prime?? Did Gruber ever run a 100 m competitively in high school or college track?? Or perhaps done 40 yard sprints for football evaluation or something??

Look at the 2016 baseball reference team picture. I know their WAR isn't exactly right, however all those players (expect for Edwin and maybe Estrada) will be back next year. If their cumulative WAR goes 30-15 what is the next number?? People are thinking it is 10, when it is more likely 22. Add Alford and other additions....

You miss the point - You are saying "it is incredibly unlikely that A and B and C and D" will happen. When the proper way to look at it is whether some of A and B and C and D and E and F and G and H and I and J and K and L and M" will happen. You need to collect talent up to M or further, and hope for most to meet expectation and a subset to surprise on the positive side.

His minor league numbers look good. Even sucking he is a better hitter in mlb than Goins or Barney. He could be better than he has shown so far. No idea about the defense. Maybe he sucks a lot at that.

Personally I only consider it trolling if he didn't really believe Smoak would break out, and therefore was just pretending to like Smoak because he wanted a reaction. There are a lot of opinions that don't make sense, but they are ussually not "trolling", just simply opinions that don't make sense. People are starting to toss the "trolling" claim around way to much. The way it is used these days, it could apply to any ideas one doesn't agree with.

At this point a cup of coffee as a big leagues next year is the expectation not a positive surprise. Many of the good young prospects the Jays have had, came up for coffee at age 20, the year after low a. Snider, Wells, Gonzales, Green. Of course anything can happen. Both negative and positive. The positive surprise would be significant time in the big leagues next year. If he plays well, and there is a need, he could be up this time next year. Keep in mind no one expected Anthony Alford to show up so early.

Wrong. Fake News. People are great. I've been there at least 30 times, gone to 15 games, run several Boston Marathons, hit the city so many times. Was there the day of the terrorist attack in 2013. I'm rambling a bit, but the point is I've been to Boston a lot, and experienced a lot there. This post is just so typical Grant, where Grant's one small experience there, which may have just been randomly bad for some reason, makes him a know-all expert on the subject.

As someone mentioned 50 WAR career. He was really consistent, 4-5 WAR a year from 1997-2009, a long peak!

Good point then. Yes. If he decides to really cut down his swing, like Ichiro, and he really does good at the bunting (he is practicing right??) then he could hit .400 with a .450 slugging. I still see him going more in the Paul Molitor direction. Hard liners 3 times a game.

Hey wait. I thought you accused me of trolling for playing along with this... Anyway peace. No need to slam each other. Kevin Pillar has improved. That is becoming obvious. If some of us want to dream, let us. What would Pillar be like if he really improved as much as, say Bautista did in 2010, but his skill set was the same. Low strikeout line drive hitter, amazing defense, amazing baserunning. Hits in the luckiest of luck, has the healthiest of health. Liners all over the place. 30 fangraphs defense. Gibby see's it right away so hits him lead off all year, get almost 800 plate appearances.

It will be really hard to hit .400 with a .450 slugging percentage. He'd have to limit himself to 25 doubles, 0 triples and 0 homers. If he hits .400 He will probably be hitting the ball hard He will probably get 50 doubles He will probably get a few triples He will probably get 15-20 homers If he hits .400 he has a really good chance of slugging atleast .550. Also if he hits .400 they will walk him, I think all they have to do this year is hollar to walk him. They will also hit him a few times. IF__ he hits .400 he will hit .400 .470 .570, and could get 12+ WAR. People are vastly underestimating how good Kevin Pillar would be if he hits .350-.400.

Tholes Weird Eye has him at .350 .450 .610 or so based on an article that was out there. I think it is possible. He has not hit a homer yet, but we all know he has 20 homer power, he has been patient. Something like .350 average, 60 doubles 15 triples 19 homers, 75 walks, 25 hit by pitch might get him there. it would be a fun season, one of the best ops ever for a guy with less than 20 homers?? Bold Prediction: Kevin Pillar breaks through with a .350 .450 .600 season, with remarkable numbers of doubles, stolen bases, hit by pitch, and incredible baserunning. His defense takes it to the next level. Kevin Pillar has the greatest season ever. 15 WAR.

I like how you are going all out and projecting him to hit like Frank Thomas mid 90s version. He'd need 35 homers and 100 walks to hit those rates even with .340. I think based on his spring training, based on what I've heard people describe what they've seen on TV (I haven't caught a game yet), his new approach, opposite field, will lead to stats like Mark Grudzielanek. ** Anyone remember him?? However Frank Thomas in his prime would work too. His new approach is more like wait for his pitch and hit it 450 feet. Take every pitch he can't hit 450 feet. If his defense held he would get like 12 WAR. ** Kevin Pillar is just a tad below Grudzielanek and could hit like him just by random chance.

How do you model Douche WAR?? Do you believe that the Douche only effects himself?? Like Lawrie is 3 WAR talent, but because of his doucheness he only gets 1?? Or is it subtle. Like everyone one team loses .1 WAR, you wouldn't notice it, but it would add up over the entire team.

Bold Prediction: Grant admits he is wrong.