Olerud363
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Everything posted by Olerud363
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I find it a bit creepy when people joke about other people dying.
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Psychology is mostly fake news. I'm not sure what my statement has to do with psychology. 90% of everything is fake news. NJH has demonstrated he understand this. So I suspect most of his gig is an act.
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I am very relaxed. Bold Prediction - Josh Donaldson get 7.2 WAR and comes 3rd in the MVP voting Bold Prediction - Marcus Stroman progresses and is quite obviously slightly above average with 200 innings 40 walks and a 3.50 ERA Bold Prediction - Rowdy Tellez hits fairly OK at Buffalo (.290 22 homers, 80 rbis) is called up in September and hits a homer in a game that the Jays win 11-2 (pinch hits for Smoak). Bold Prediction - Kevin Pillar rebounds to 2015 form and hits .275. Bold Prediciton - Bautista plays 130 games and flirts with 30 homers again (after only 22 in 2016).
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Real smart guys, also occasionally get out of the phony "yo-bro" one sentence communication style, which you very much did with your good series of articles on moves that you were advocating. So that is another point in your favor.
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Not really bold. Kind of mean. Still trying to figure if you are really are a smart guy or not. I mean you understand how dumb Grant is, so that is very good. You seem to have a basic understanding of the reproducibility crisis. Good as well. A little too much overconfidence. This is where it gets tricky. a) Like many smart guys (Nox for example) you may understand that you are not really that smart (no one is), however by acting cocky you can play the system (co-orporate promotions and such) or you really think you are that smart, in which case you aren't.
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Many of the predictions are things that already happened recently. There is huge recency bias, which basically means if it didn't happen in 2016 it is bold for 2017. Smoak had a 100+ OPS as recently as 2015, lifetime he is 95. It's not bold to predict 100+ OPS for Smoak. Bold predictions, should really be things that are unlikely, haven't happened before, and we don't see coming. Devon Travis will be better than Mookie Betts. That's bold,
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Rowdy Tellez repeats Fred McGriff's 1987 (20 homers, in 290 at bats) Hits one into third deck at Yankee Stadium (harder in new Yankee Stadium). Kevin Pillar repeats his minor league numbers in majors .315 15 homers, .355 on base percentage Marcus Stroman has a season that compares to Halladay's best and sets new Jays win record (23-4 2.28)
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This answers the question What players will have good seasons by their own standards and What player can have a very good year, even if he regresses a bit.
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Dominican guy gets "bold" better than most others.
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Smoak had a wRC+ of 108 in 2015. Most of these bold predictions are "what random stat that goes between a and b, and was closer to "a" last year will be closer to "b" this year.
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Pearce one could be bold. The rest is like... OK that is likely to happen. That has happened. The boards bold rate is like 20% if that. Out of 100 bold predictions 20 are really bold.
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These threads always show that the human brain doesn't work. Why are things that happened already bold?? Harper had a higher WAR than Trout in 2015 Bautista had the same WAR as EE in 2015, 3 higher in 2014. 2014-2016 Bautista - 12.2 WAR 2014-2016 EE - 12 WAR Bautista having higher WAR than EE could easily happen. It has happened recently. It could happen again. Not bold.
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None of this is bold at all. No offense. Kendry Morales lifetime 114 wRC+ and just got 1.9 wins in 2015... 2 wins and 115 is like upper average Bold is 140 and 4 wins Travis. 2 wins a year, injured a lot. fewer than 2 wins is like lower average. Negative bold predictions are sad. Travis out for year is negative bold. Aaron Sanchez prediction I guess is negative bold.
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Both Anthems are awesome. Back in the 90s I went to some games at old Yankee Stadium, and was amazed that a lot of the Yankee fans sang the Canadian anthem, it was a nice sign of respect, and should work both ways. Nothing wrong with singing both Anthems. If people don't like it they can show up at 7:05. A lot of them do anyway.
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General 2016 Blue Jays discussion thread
Olerud363 replied to G-Snarls's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
There was some debate if Todd was real, and if not real if he was King. Can't remember how it all went down. One day I came on, and Todd seemed mad about it all, and maybe got angry, then got banned. Then Hurl gave a long speech, telling everyone Todd was indeed real, and it was shameful how the board treated him. Then maybe Todd quit. Not sure. Haven't seen him much lately. -
The reliever bubble is happening in the context of recency bias and small sample size. If the Jays beat up Tomlin and the lefty rookie (who is so unknown, I can't remember his name, or even care to look it up) the reliever bubble may not even be a thing. Andrew Miller is not a legend.
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If Trump ends the world it is your fault. People like you are exactly why, Miami Cubans voted for Trump. Grant77 (and other "elitists") - I am Grant. I am wise. I love all of you. Do not fall for the lies of empire. Do not vote for the false prophet Trump. I am you saviour, I will return you to your homeland of cuba, where you can live moral happy lives, poor and unknown. I am Grant, I know what's best for you. I love you." Miami Cubans - "Holy s***, f***ing christ these elitists are nut-balls, We need to vote for Trump."
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After a night spent thinking over this super-post, I think there is more to it. Often times, when I feel that an injustice has been done, but am nervous about speaking out, I hide it in a very long facebook post. This is a compromise. I speak publicly but at the same time, it is hidden, so only true warriors will see it. Usually the undesirables don't have the attention span to read all the way. So I think Jaysfan4ever really was upset about the yankees facial policy. He describes himself as a 'a guy with long hair and a goatee' and I bet he has been bullied and persecuted because of his appearance. Potentially he has lost career opportunities because of persecution against woolly looking people. I bet he's very passionate about the issue and the super-post was his way of speaking out.
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For the most part I do not like over-zelous moderation that is like something out of China or North Korea. However it actually took me a long time to scroll though this thread, each quote of the original post, took several scrolls to get through on the phone and it was quite disruptive to my routine. So there is kind of a practical issue here. It is like the anti-Trump protesters. It is their right to convey all their thoughts through non-violent and non-disruptive means. However when they cause a traffic jam there is a practical reason to stop them.
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shorter version - 50/50 JB back - Saunders. remember him. - backup catcher - half time recap - pitching too - make jays better - is it fair for yanks to chop beards mid season??
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- this post is not fact just personal feeling - 50/50 JB or EE comes back - may have to take less money - Morales at 1b complicates things - Saunders. Don't forget Saunders. Why has everone else forgotten him? - C need a backup catcher and other guys too! - midway point - recap starts - recap ends but not the post, JaysFan4ever likes both EE and JB - if either return it has to be at a discount - while we are at it, lets talk starting pitching - lets get back on topic, back to JB - qualifying offer, discount, AAV, it's complicated - holy s*** it's still going - jays just need to do what makes them a better team - run differential - he admits it is a huge post - lets talk yankees haircuts and beards rule - what if you get traded mid season?? Do you have to shave your beard? unfair disruption for the beard! - OK time to shut up
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Yo bro so is he coming back or not?
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I meant in the playoffs. Grilli, Osuna, Biagini were very good, and I believe matched the Indians bullpen. Jays rough up Tomlin and the rookie lefty guy, and no one is even talking how valuable Andrew Miller is.
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What is interesting though, is that the Jays bullpen was absolutely fine. Jays lost all their games in the early innings when they didn't hit mediocre starters. In my opinion the reliever thing is over-rated. There is still more than one way to skin a cat. Improve the early inning offense and Jays are in the world series
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Fangraphs says he is worth ~2.5 WAR a year. Doesn't his contract basically reflect that number?