Olerud363

If the Jays are somehow in contention and If he performs like we think he can he will be up next year. "Starters" as we know them are ending.... innings limitis will end with it. In that, almost nobody except the very elite will throw 200 innings. Pearson coming up in the second half of 2019 and pitching as an occasional opener and some middle relief after the opener shouldn't surprise anyone.

Not true at all. He got injured at the worst possible time. Early June. They were thinking of calling him up, or at least to Buffalo at that moment. If he was up in Buffalo in June then after a month there, there would of been HUGE pressure to call him up, for half a season. However because of the injury his schedule got derailed by 2 months. He had 6 weeks off and basically spent an extra 2 weeks in New Hampshire. Then after a Buffalo stint there was only a month left... and he may not of been ready for 30 games, so you are down to 20 games. Question Do you call a healthy Vladimir up for a 90 game stint?? YES YOU EVEN SHAPIRO MAY DO THAT. Question Do you call an recovering from injury Vladimir up for a 20 game sting?? NO (keep in mind given the injury they wouldn't of played every day in September, so the injury made a 90 game stint, a 20 game stint).

Boldness 5/5 Accuracy 0/5

Boldness - 2.5/5 Accuracy - nice one on Judge, Vlad had an amazing season, and I think you will agree that you are happy to be wrong on that,.

Boldness 2.5 - nothing all that bold Accuracy - 3.5/5 - nailed Donaldson, Martin, Tulo, Travis, nailed the Vlad situation, Bichette dropped off a bit, but not a huge amount (almost everything was the same except for singles and he made strides defensively).

Boldness 2/5 - nothing here is all that bold Accuracy 4/5 - pretty much nailed Stroman and Morales. Diaz was ~2 WAR but you were close. Tulo did not play any games at all so was worth 0 WAR.

Thanks for that, good point. I should add a 7th point to my list on why they are comparable. 7. (New) Both started hot, but Teoscar has been dreadful since May 1st, and McKinney was terrible in September.

Are those minor league stats?? Fangraphs has their mlb (career) ops+ at 112 for Mckinney, and 109 for Teoscar.

Oh wait. I'm just stats scouting players I've never seen in real life... not quite true I saw Teoscar 4 times this year... never seen Mckinney, but it's hard to scout from the upper deck. I take that back, despite being the same position, apr. same age, very close batting stats, they are nothing alike. Completely different players when you scout them. Which one is better according to scouting?? Which one will excel and which one will fail?? How will there careers end up different according to how their "scouting reports" will translate into performance?

I'm half joking, but they are comparable Minors Mckinney .269 .348 .429 .778 Teoscar .269 .339 .455 .794 Majors Mckinney .252 .318 .462 .780 Teoscar .241 .303 .479 .782 1. They have almost the same milb OPS. Mckinney makes more contact, better bb/k, Teoscar has more power, but they are similar 2. They have almost the same mlb OPS. 3. Neither is that fast. 4. They are both outfielders, and both are left fielders from what I've seen. Teoscar may not be good enough to be an MLB outfielder. 5. They both play for the Blue Jays. 6. They are both in their mid 20s, though Teoscar is 20 months older. How could they not be similar?? There are differences, there are probably other players who are more similar, but they are similar in skill set and value.

Minor elbow and knee soreness after playing almost every game of his minor league season, playoff games too, and finishing strong isn't as big of a deal as an in season injury that he misses a few weeks. At least in my opinion and I'm a real negative nancy about these things (see Guerrero, Vlad, 6 weeks off for re-evaluation).

Of course he's good enough to play everday. He's basically a 2 WAR player. Jays have a bunch of 1-2 WAR players, and I guess have to crank it up and get some stars at some positions. Kind of a weird situation but basically a couple of players have to be replaced with stars, but it doesn't matter which players it is. Nobody specific has to be replaced.

It appears he is "miraging" (ie as in Teoscar the mirage Hernandez). After reading all the insightful and well written comments in this thread, thinking of it very deeply, and running my proprietary data analysis on every single player in MLB history, I have come to the following conclusion.... (drum roll) The top comparable for Billy Mckinney is... Teoscar Hernandez. Now that that's decided, next question, can the two of them form an acceptable platoon?

The best lead off hitter is a really stupid thing actually. If used that way, a few players, Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Bonds, Trout and others would be a better lead off hitter than Henderson. Wade Boggs was close to being better... and may have been better. There were many years that Henderson provided 10 baserunning runs, was infinitely better as a base runner, but Boggs was a better leadoff hitter because he got on base more. In the next few years lead off hitters as we traditionally think of them will end. The best hitter, will hit first, and the only time a speedy guy will hit first is if he is the best hitter, or so close that the analytics give him a big advantage because of his baserunning. Starter are also gone. Carlos Danger may someday see a lineup with Vlad at the top, Paulina starting and his other hero Borucki coming in at inning 2. Hopefully Carlos just enjoys it all because it will be a lot of fun, and Borucki may excel as an inning 2-3 to 4-6 pitcher.

This reminds me of the sea-lion thing. Google sea-lion troll if you don't know what I am talking about. "The myth that Sanchez' velocity is down is a complete fabrication, fan-graphs has his fastball at 93 this year, which is pretty much where it's always been. He's always thrown mid 90s and he still does. You're probably getting fooled because some years fangraphs had his fastball at 95. A couple of mph on his fangraphs page just isn't reliable or meaningful. Especially in small sample sizes. It's safe to say his velocity is where it's always been. It's unfortunate the blister has effected him two years in a row, but that will resolve itself. Remember Al Lieter?? More than likely Sanchez will be back to 2016 form next year, and probably even better."

I'm fine with giving it to Betts this year... here is the real funny thing before this year when Mookie had never been ahead of Trout in WAR, you had scouts saying they were comparable, a bunch of old timers. Now after this year it will be something like 10 10 8 9 10 7 10 -------2 5 8 5 10 So before this year Betts had never come that close to Trout, and oldtimers were still arguing he might be better. Now that they are tied (for one year) I am sure we will see some great quotes. "The stats are just catching up to what we always knew, Betts is better" "Mookie's a guy who is always underrated by the stats, but last year even fangraphs had him up with Trout, that means he was even better, way better in real life" "For a while Mookie scouted better, but Trout had better stats, now that Mookie has pushed even in the stats I don't see how there is even an argument here"

Statistically and biographically Pardinho is a pitching version of Wander Franco. Both are 17, both are statistically among the best players in the Appy league, both were top rated international signings, both have amazing k/bb. Franco is already a top 10 prospect on some lists headed for #1 overall early next year. As far as I know Pardinho hasn't even reached top 100. Is it because of TINSTAAPP?? Or scouting reports?? Pearson looked headed for a breakout, then unfortunately got the injury. Pearson and Pardinho have huge potential. If they are healthy and perform next year they could both be ready to help in 2020. That may seem extreme, and it doesn't mean they will be called up in 2020 (because of service time stuff)... if the Jays are good in 2020, then Pearson and Pardinho could be ready to help, in the same way Osuna was ready to help in 2015 ** ** (not that I advocate making either a short reliever, maybe a long reliever/opener in the new pitching paradimes that will be propagating like crazy in the next couple of years).

When I try to answer these questions, I often look for a few teams that disprove the rule. So I glanced through the World Series winners of the last 20 years, and took a look at a few. Most really good teams have a Roberto Alomar/Derek Jeter type who hits leadoff. However Arizona (2001) didn't have a true lead off hitter. Only Tony Womack, who had a .307 on base percentage and they wouldn't of possibly... they wouldn't of... they had a tonne of other decent hitters, like Mark Grace, who could of hit high in the order... But of course https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI200111040.shtml So I guess Carlos Danger is right. All championship teams have a speedy dude who helps them to glory from the leadoff spot. From Ben Revere to Tony Womack, that's just the way you win.

I think a lot of things could of been done better in the 90s. Cito did a great job but probably should of been fired after 91, and maybe been they could of brought Bobby Cox back. Devo was great, but yeah hitting him 6th or 7th would of suited his skills better. There was no need to get Henderson in 93. They should of just given Rob Butler a chance at lead off. You can't complain about two world series wins, but no team is perfect and there were a few things that could of been done better.

You know who would of made a really good leadoff man?? Lyle Overbay. He wasn't appreciated at the time, but had all the skills, good eye, line drive power, good on base percentage, that would of made an ideal lead off hitter.

Also just so we are all cool. I haven't managed the time to read all this thread, even though I started it. I'll have to schedule some reading time to catch up on all this, and figure out what it all means. For the record I did not see that you compared Revere to Mckinney and was not accusing you of such. I only posted a Mckinney/Revere comparison analysis, because that's the primary topic of the thread, trying to figure out who Mckinney is comparable to.

That's a lot to digest and maybe I am missing the point but how come Revere struck out when it counted the most?? How come he didn't slap a ball, and get the runs in?? Over the course of a long season the "little things" Revere does don't make much of an impact. The big things a slugger does make more of an impact. So your theory is that... when times get tough... when the chips are on the table... when our backs are against the wall... when the leaves turn and the air is crisp... in these times you can't just count on a slugger.... However in the one instance when everything was on the line Revere struck out and didn't slap the ball, or beat out a grounder, or bunt, or do something amazing with his speed. He just stood there.

Just to keep things on topic here is the Revere Mckinney correlation score Speed Revere 12/10 - Mckinney 4/10 - correlation .33 Power Revere -1/10 - Mckinney 8/10 - correlation -.125 (Batting) Handedness - Revere LEFT Mckinney LEFT - correlation 1.0 Race - NOT APPLICABLE THIS IS NOT A RACIST THREAD Intangibles - Revere 9/10 Mckinney UNKNOWN Total correlation - I don't know, about .3 or so, they are both left handed, and we don't for sure Mckinney's intangibles. Are they comparable - No, no I don't think so.

Ben Revere almost ended the 2015 season three times, two times he was rescued by his team mates. The third time no one could bail him out. Ben Revere destroyed our hopes, our dreams, our destiny. Aug 14th 2015 - https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201508140.shtml Ben Revere faced Andrew Miller in the bottom of the 9th with 1 out and a man on third. He struck out. Under most circumstances this devestating loss against the NY Yankees would of ended the season, but somehow the Jays rebounded and finished strong. Oct 14th 2015 - Revere single handedly almost ended the run again, with none out and the based loaded he grounded out weekly. A devastating event, that devestated an entire country. The effect on the other hitters was obvious, as a stunned Donaldson subsequently hit a week popup that barely made it over Odor's head. Only Jose Bautista, in one of his last at bats as "Jose Bautista" salvaged the situation. Oct 23rd, 2015 - With 1 out in the 9th, Revere had a chance to tie the game, or put the Jays ahead. He struck out, and that was that. The country defalated, his team mates defalated, and it was all over. Three times Revere failed catastrophically, two times other legends bailed him out, but alas 2015, which should of ended in a World Series win was over... It was over for one reason... Ben Revere.

Using the google machine and the fangraphs I found out a) he throws way more changeups now than 2016 this year it's his most effective pitch c) however 2016 he threw his curveball more and more effectively. d) he's lost 2 mph on his sinker and four seamer. What do you make of all this?? Injury beyond the blister and suitcase finger thing?