Olerud363

Charlie Montoya Report Card Pitching and Defense - B The little things (line up and bunting) - F- Get the Boys on Base (.290 so far) - F- Develop the young players ** - F+ ** Every young player other than Rowdy is a disaster, and he's gotten "the best prospect ever" off to a terrible start. Would be F- other than Rowdy. What else do we evaluate these guys on?? Agree/Disagree with the rating?

When is he sent down?? It doesn't make any business sense to waste service time on this. If it doesn't turn around he will be back in Buffalo (note I am not saying "he will be back in Buffalo" I am saying IF it doesn't around he's back in Buffalo, happened with Delgado, happened with Trout kind of (went down for 3 weeks in 2012), Vladdy will be in Buffalo end of May if this continues.

The stats I've seen say he's fast enough... I think they reported an above average sprint speed today. His bat speed on the other hand... probably fine. They report good exit velocities. That being said he looks awful with the eye test, nothing but choppers and strikeouts... OK that's an exageration. There have been a couple of liners right at people, but definately way more strikeouts then we expected and probably more ground balls.

What I have been told by my friends who are part of the resistance is the following. The people were given freedom and they weren't able to handle it. 1. The people voted for Donald J. Trump 2. The people drove large vehicles and the earth only has 12 years left because of that. 3. The billionaires stole all the money from the regular people. 4. The regular people watched the Alex Jones show occasionally. And Breitbart news which showed a lot of hate articles. Thus it is time. Us regular people had our chance and we blew it. We need wise ones to monitor us, censur us, and guide us to a better place. Wise ones include. a) The Moderators of this board Comrade Alexandria Oscario-Cortez c) The great Guardian Writer and Philosopher Goerge Manbiot Ones that are not wise a) Several Posters on this board Doug Ford c) Sean Hannity e) The dangerous fractal-localist anti-central planner Nicholas Taleb

If we live in a society where people have to be banned, that is sad and in the end it will be our downfall. Alex Jones, Jordan Peterson, tbad... OK. Maybe to you these people deserve it, but mark my words they won't stop with those three. And furthermore WHY is he being banned?? Every time someone gets banned or deplatformed they never tell us why. Tell us why he is getting banned and we can proceed from there. Also whoever wants him banned should reveal themselves. If you think it is important someone is banned stand tall and shout about it. Let the people see you.

Stroman didn't even throw Gurriel under the bus, when Gurriel messed up a start for him with the blips.

Come to think of it the entire thing is kind of ironic. Since Charlie and the coaching staff are terrible at helping mediocre hitters avoid a .260 on base percentage and get it up to .300, and are terrible at at least STARTING* 80 grade hitting prospects off on the right foot... Given they got the team on base percentage down to .290 the bunting might actually be increasing the expected runs scored from 590 to 592 or something.

per 162 games - ~ -12 runs from stupid mistakes (bunting, pinch running, etc.) - ~ -200 runs from worst on base percentage in the league.

I'm really excited about Vlad and sorry to be a downer. I am going to root for him to show us what he can do tonight. No more Teoscar Hernandez JR. Let's see some progress. Here are some things I think Vlad could do tonight to show he is learning. 1. In his wild swinging strikeout, where he swings at 4 balls, it will be nice if he can move that to 5. This would be mean he fouled off an extra pitch out of the strike zone and show some progress. 2. If he could replace his second wild swinging strikeout of the night with a called third strikeout that would be a bit of progress. Show a little patience. 3. If he could replace one of his chopper groundouts on a pitch down out of the zone, with a popup on a pitch out of the zone high, that would be great too. Get it in the air big guy!

Didn't Teoscar run down a potential bases clearing triple the other day when Sanchez had walked the bases loaded or something?? These things even out.

He's not done... I think I've just started to come to realize that the Delgado Scenario could happen here. I just can't believe how much he's been swinging and missing. Didn't expect that. God Damn it. Can't we have nice things?? Didn't expect him to light the world on fire. Expected good at bats. Great bat control. R.A. Dickey -- Expected the pitch of the century. The knuckleball with crazy movement that could be controlled. After the first start the knuckleball didn't have crazy movement, couldn't be controlled, and just floated out of the zone. Never changed. Though he did occasionally get decent results. VGJ - expected bit fat Ichiro. Awesome bat control. Never swing at a ball. And.. so far 1 week of Teoscar Hernandez JR

I'm not trying to be dramatic. Just also want to describe the situation as it is. 1 week ago worst possible scenario on offense would be Guerrero not only struggles but the contact ability and strike zone judge isn't there. He looks like Teoscar Hernandez. That is what happened.

(Edit) I am being neurotic.. .but just a bit worried at how wildly Guerrero is swing, and that the contact ability hasn't shown up. I can't tell the difference between a Teoscar Hernandez at bat and Vladimir Guerrero right now. If they can lay off the curve balls out of the zone and the fastballs high out of the zone they will do much better. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (a fat man who can't lay off crappy breaking stuff in the dirt and high fast balls) is not going to change things unless he changes. It's only 5 games. I know that.

Whut??? Do you believe in basic logic, and thinking?? Hypothetically if Vlad isn't good at dealing with the "pitches of out of the zone" pitching pattern that is the pattern he will see no matter what. They have made a disccovery: Giving Vlad nothing to hit makes him a .167 .280 .280 hitter (or whatever it is) Is it true?? I don't know, but they will continue trying this pattern until he proves he can handle it. They will give him this pattern no matter where he is hitting. OK. So Vlad hits 2nd in front of Smoak?? Will they change the pattern and give him something to hit?? choice a) continue with the "nothing to hit" pattern that makes Vlad a .167 .280 .280 hitter choice give him the "faastball down the middle" pitching pattern that makes him a .300 .350 .500 hitter. Why would they choose ?? If they are scared of Smoak all the more reason to choose pattern a) since the goal is to keep him off base, and pattern a) keeps him off base. No matter where he hits from 1 to 9 they will give Vladimir Guerrero JR. one pitching pattern. The pattern that makes him the worst hitter.

Also - do you think the stupid little things Charlie does indicate lack of intelligence, and without inteligence he can't do the big things right. If he doesn't understand the math behind the bunt, he can't understand pitch sequences, how to hire a hitting coach, and how to mentor young players?? Like when they start throwing Vladdy crap, Charlie isn't getting it, and telling Vladdy to swing hard cuz they always throw rookies fastballs down the middle... (it's not that simple, but I mean Charlie and the hitting coach just aren't up to recognizing all the pitching patterns opposing teams are using on his guys).

There is already a thread to complain about every meaningless mistake Charlie has made that will cost the team 7 runs over the course of the season. Let's talk about the things that could cost the team hundreds of runs over a period of years. The good Pitching and run prevention - this is better then anyone thought it would be. Luck?? Pete Walker?? Charlie's advice?? Run differential - because of the good pitching it's fine. Offense - this is way worse than anyone thought. Every young player including your friend, Vladimir Guerrero JR., has a k/bb ratio far worse than predicted. The mediocre guys who we expected to hit .250 .320 .400 or whatever, and hold the fort until the real prospects came are terrible. The first real prospect to show up has swung wildly and has more terrible swings in 5 days than I thought he would in a couple of months (sure it will probably normalize... but if using the Tercet scouting system we've already seen enough bad swings to write VGJ off). Player development - same as above. Including a guy had to be sent down because of mental issues on defense. The best hitting prospect in a generation is swinging at everything. Is this Charlie's fault at all?? Choice of hitting coach?? Maybe the analytics department has them all messed up somehow with them looking for the wrong patterns?? What is happening?? Anything wrong with the process? Or just bad luck so far??

It's a joke, but sadly based on quite a bit of reality. The Bichette part isn't really exagerated at all. Kieth Law has said several times that Bichette isn't a short stop. He's also rated Tatis above Guerrero... though he's never exactly said that Tatis will be a better hitter.. just that Tatis will be almost as good a hitter and way better at everything else.

Kieth Law update Two things are for sure. Tatis is by far the better JR and Bo Bichette is not a short stop. While most people conceded Tatis would have more defensive value, few expected him to outhit the other (bigger) JR. It's a small sample size but it should be pretty obvious by now that Tatis is not only the better defender, but the better hitter. Guerrero has been exposed in the majors, the vaunted plate discipline was never really there, and only an illusion caused by inferior competition. In the majors Tatis will strikeout about the same as Guerrero as Guerrero can't lay off good out of zone breaking stuff. Look for them both to strikeout 150 times a year, but Tatis will hit for a higher average and more power. Put it this way. Just reverse their Dad's stats to get the JR stats. And no, Bo Bichette still isn't a short stop. Kieth Law

Maybe it's also a workload thing. They've implemented some simple rules to limit his workload this year.

If after a month Vlad is hitting... say at least .280 .350 .450 and every one else has regressed a bit then lets complain... the things people are complaining about are the small things... the bigger thing is the low team on base percentage.

2015 Blue Jays (managed by John Gibbons) - 891 runs 36 SH 2015 Kansas City Royals (World Series Champions) - 724 run 34 SH Conclusion - though the 2015 Blue Jays had an incredible offense they made too many bunts. The KC Royals made a lot of bunts too, but surprisingly not as many the the Blue Jays. This may be a really stupid discussion. NY Yankees 1998 - 114 wins, 960 runs, 32 bunts Cleveland Indians 1999 - 1009 runs, 54 bunts Does it matter if you bunt 2 times a year or 50 ?? It probably matters a little bit, but teams have scored 1000 runs with 50 bunts. Does it matter if you get a team .298 on base percentage or .350?? Yes. No team has gotten 1000 runs, or 900 runs, or even 800 with a .298 team on base percentage. It matter a lot. To the tune of a few hundred runs. People seem to be having the wrong conversation here.

Given that they mandated rest days for Vlad and Bo when they were 18 it probably isn't just Charlie's decision. Could be the FO has a workload limit on Vlad.

Still fascinated by the idea that Charlie Montoya is as terrible as Cito and effects the hitters... I'm generating tranlations, kind of like park effect but I call it the Montoya effect. Just so people can know what our players would do without Montoya. Teoscar Hernandez (under a normal manager like Gibby who would just leave him alone) .248 .320 .460 Under Montoya (who wastes his time talking bunting practice, and ground ball to the right side practice instead of regular batting practice, and wastes at bats trying to implement this in games) .230 .310 .360 So that is Teoscar translated for the Montoya effect. Edit: Just for interest here is Teoscar translated for the Cito effect (more aggressive and pulling the ball more, so a few more swing and misses at balls, grounders to the third base coach, and occasional foul ball into the fifth deck). .220 .270 .410

OK. I am going overboard but I am very intrigued by the theory that Charlie is just as bad as Cito Gason but in a different way. Let's compare Vladdy and Olerud Olerud (with Gaston except for 1993) .280 15 60 Olerud (without Gaston hypothetical 1990-92, 94-96) .290 20 80 (no platooning, no bad hitting tips) Guerrero (with Montero) .300 19 79 (too much rest, too much pinch running, too far down in the order, occasional bad hitting tips) Guerrero (no Montero, just do what he can do) .320 25 90 Guerrero may have to do what Olerud did in 1993. Just dominate to a 1st ballot unanimous hall of fame level, so much so that Charlie can't give him any bad advice or pinch run, or hit him 6th, or give him un-needed rest days... the moment he's just really good instead of ridiculous then Charlie can justify bad decisions that lower his stats 10%.

Hmmmm... so after watching for a month I see the main problem as this... Let's take an extremely simplified model of "htting tips" for a "true talent" .275 hitter with a .350 on base percentage and 30 homeruns. John Gibbons - wouldn't give any stupid hitting tips either way, and the guy would hit .275 with a .350 on base percentage and 30 homeruns. Cito Gaston - would give bad hitting tips, and the guy would hit .250 with a .325 on base percentage and 30 homeruns Charlie - might give bad hitting tips and the guys would hit .275 with a .330 on base percentage and 25 homeruns. What I am trying to say is my greatest worry is that Charlie's love of the sacrifice bunt, may indicate he doesn't understand other things, and his hitting advice will tend to be like "hit to the opposite field to move runner over", and "try to beat the shift, you can't just win on 3 run homers", so he'll effect the offensive stats, to the same magnitude as Cito but in a different pattern.