Olerud363

After last night his ground ball percentage is finally under 60. 59. His hard hit percentage remains high (42). K % is dropping. His overall numbers have now reached Travis Snider 2009 levels. Not quite at a Delgado 1994 level, but way above the Delgado 1995 level he was at. Given consistent playing time (unlike those two who were sent back to the minors) he will have the opportunity to keep striving for excellence. I think even if his ground ball level remained this high (which it probably won't) he could still be effective. Jayson Heyward, who is the poster boy, for a young heralded prospect, with dynamite minor league numbers, who forgot how to hit (his minor league numbers at a young age are as good as anyones) has a fairly low hard hit percentage. So if anyone is wonrried he could become Jayson Heyward (which I was until I looked closer at the numbers) keep in mind he'd have to reduce his hard hit percentage by 15 points to accomplish that. An assortment of fearsome grounders, low line drives, and the occasional high line drive, all hit at 110+ mph would be more effective than what Heyward does.

Yes. I figured it was unlikely he was injured judging by the fact Boston extended him. They are not dumb, they have his medical records. While an unpredictable injury could pop up, the extension told us he was healthy as the far as the best organization in baseball could tell.

According to the peanut gallery the Rays ARE NOT turning everyone they acquire into stars at 50 cents on the dollar., the coaching staff and analytics department have no effect on players performance, that's on the players. YOU MY FRIEND ARE AN IDIOT. GO EAT A LUNCH BOX AND BUGGER OFF. (Not my insult, that's the peanut gallerie's insult) In all fairness the Rays may be just starting with more talented players. It certainly seems that the Rays (through a quarter season this year) turn mediocre players into useful pieces, and the Jays turn them into .260 on base percentage players. However the data may not tell that story if we looked at it closely I ask you this... Given Danny Jansen on the Rays would he have a .250 on base percentage or would their anlaytics, coaching staff, and front office be able to better help him reach his potential?

How does minor league free agency work?? I assume if we added him to the 40 man we could of kept him. Once you get added to the 40 man don't you then start using options?? So we technically could of kept him for 3 more years (without even playing him in Toronto), just by keeping him on the 40 man and using options. So didn't the decision come down to the fact they'd rather use the 40 man spot for other (arguably less valuable) players?

https://www.bluejaysbeat.com/2019/05/09/vlad-jr-will-be-just-fine/?fbclid=IwAR1hFYGvlAN0HlAtF4vhFIuwuI76CQ4Kk2yA6FYcTw-6hPH8RBxQ9sYW6qU Interesting article, looks like they are pitching him out of zone low. Which may explain the ground ball rate. Vlad needs to just chill, and take (edit) 5 walks a week for a while, and get into 3-1 counts more. Easier said then done but minor league stats say Vlad has the talent to do this. When given a series of pitches with which he can only do 3 things... 1. K 2. Grounder 3. Walk He has to take 3. And wait for mistakes, and for the Umps to be a bit nicer. Sure, he's walked 6 times. Once every couple of games. But a great hitter, pitched like this, should be walking every game. Not swinging at the low crap that can only be grounded into the dirt.

I did not see his double nor have I heard Wilner's description. I did hear Wilner claim Vlad just missed one in the third, it sounded like a high fly, but who knows if Wilner's description of these things are accurate. The hit of the game may have been a liner, hit about 100 rows foul that I saw Deadpool describe as "800 mph" off the bat on the game thread. That would of made Cito and Murph proud. He struck out that at bat. Then I fell asleep and awoke to Buck calling another Vlad popup. Didn't see that hit off the bat so I don't know how high it was and whether it was also "just missed". All in all this may be another step forward. When I get a chance I may review the video of the double. Curious if it was a booming drive or a grounder down the line. The 800 mph foul ball won't be in the fangraphs batted ball stats, however the two high popups to the outfield should improve his batting ball profile. Step in the right direction. I also have not heard anything about a demotion. So that is good.

Wow. Was I ever wrong. I blame Mike Wilner's terrible radio announcing. I was on a hike up a mountain and got a window of reception and saw Vlad was coming up, so tuned in. Wilner's description made it sound like Vlad hit another grounder for a hit. AFTER REVIEWING THE VIDEO NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH. Vlad's second hit was launched at one of his better angles. It didn't seem hit that hard, but was at least 20 feet off the ground (as opposed to his first hit which was about 1 foot off the ground but amazingly travelled 150 feet or so).

If anyone is interested Vlad the worm killer batted ball update Still sitting at a 65% ground ball rate which is historic... His hard hit rate is very good, thus the above comparison with Ben Revere (statistically only, different style hitters, similar results) (the ground ball rate and hard rate would make him (I am guessing) a .290 or so singles hitter). His defense still rates as positive. Perhaps he will be more a rich man's John McDonald. His great 3b defense and ground ball velocity, making up for his lack of fly ball power at his position.

I think if he can consistently hit 110 mph grounders his batting average should normalize unless they start playing 5 infielders on him. He could be sort of a very odd Ben Revere, but instead of slapping the ball for line drive hits, he'll get his .290 with fearsome grounders (even his hits yesterday didn't have much of a launch angle, the 118 mph er, would of just looked like a routine one hopper to short stop at a more normal mph). He also has a better eye than Revere, so will have a better on base with the same average. Though he won't have the base running ability of Revere if yesterday is any indication.

Average defense helps his future value a lot. The assumption was he was going to be a Miguel Cabrerra or Prince Fielder, with negative defense, average defense would add a WAR or 2 to his total every year.

This is another issue, that is totally 'yo-bro'. No need to actually talking about the complications of the man. Just join your clique, shout low-information one sentence statements. Endorphins hit the brain. Yo-bro! Trumps a complicated guy, and has hung with Jesse Jackson, Herman Cain, Oprah, Ben Carson, Don King, Tiger Woods, Silk and Diamond. Nominated Herman for the Fed. All you guys are probably prejediced against Herman, because you think a black pizza guy can't do the money counting. Racists (except Boxie). And yes, I realize that having a few Black friends doesn't make you a hero. However White Nationalists don't have a few black friends, they don't have a Jewish son in law, they are not friends of Isreal. Trump can still be a villian (if that rocks your boat) without being a white nationalist. He can even be subtly racist. That mother f***er only put Ben Carson in his cabinet. Should of put 3 other black guys. OK. He's just not 110% white nationalist.

I have never ignored anyone, or unfriended anyone in my life with one exception (and that was an extreme case where I was trying to make a business deal and I had to remove a 99.9999th percentile undesirable from linkedin who was stalking my business contacts). With a clause of one or two cases which could effect one's ability to earn a living or personal safety, no one should ever block or ignore anyone. People deserve their say...

Not sure if you are serious or not. Sounds like something I would say. A bit of truth combined with over-reaction. The path to Vlad being truly great, reaching his hitting potential, being healthy, and having neutral defense and baserunning (which keeps his WAR up a couple wins as opposed to fat as f*** defense and baserunning) is for him to weight in at a solid 230. Stocky but fit. The path to Prince Fielder, 5ish WAR guy, is being 280 pounds and growing until something breaks before 30. So yes. They should try and help him be slimmer... I assume they have tried but so far have not succeeded.

According to the advanced analytics Vladimir has done OK. At least according to fangraphs. He's positive 0.5 on defense, but it indicates, at least for a couple of weeks he made the plays he was suppose to + an extra one or two. If that was true that would be huge in Terms of WAR. Basically the difference between Vlad being a 6 WAR guy and an 8 WAR guy is neutral defense and baserunning. If he is bad at baserunning and defense he ends up being 6 WAR If he is neutral 8 WAR If he is awesome at defense and baserunning 10+ WAR

I tend to agree with you Carlos... At least on your analysis of the Corporate dynamics. The phrase "At the end of the Day..." is apt. Certainly not a popular concept on the board.. . Many board members, including yourself, are trained to collect treats from suits... No offense to you, as obviously you are very aware of the game you are playing. If one presents reality, the .284 team on base percentage, the lack of player development, you are quickly slaughtered. Even if you concede that the situation may change. In the corporate world, in which we live, we get treats by pretending everything is OK. We get treats for ignoring warning signs. We get treats for keeping things simple. That's why everyone loves the "Charlie bunts too much" conversation. It's gloriously simple on both sides. It means little, but it serves it's purpose, an opportunity to signal our allegiance to one side or the other. The more complicated conversation, about modern analytics and player development is shut down. As everyone knows addressing reality is not the path to goodies.

I don't know if you could create the same deal exactly as I can't think that the Jays have 2 mlb ready pitchers with 4-1 k/bb rates in the minors... You'd have to start with Drury and Groshans, Groshans is at about the same age and performance level as Baretto was. then add in two MLB ready pitchers. Maybe something like Drury, Groshans, Borucki, and Thornton. (And before the Peanut Gallery starts saying "Yo Olerud, You Stupid" (and at this point I can't even predict which way I'd be stupid, like if the trade is lopsided for Toronto, or Oakland). So I'm not saying I'd make that trade, or it's fair for Oakland, or it's fair Toronto, I haven't thought about it that much, just saying if you wanted a similar 4-1 it would be something like above)

What did he say that put your mind at ease?

Jesus... The team has a .284 on base percentage the worst in team history... It's quite likely that Sogard will regress downwards and someone currently struggling will regress upwards and it will even out. In fact it's likely team hitting will improve even if Sogard regresses. Again all I was is IF ONLY Sogard regresses to his norm, and no one else regresses (positively) to their norms then the team will be historically bad. It's pretty interesting what triggers people on this board a) Yo Bro - Bunt in the 8th inning. Charie's an idiot (Endorphins hit poster's brain, rewards other poster) - Props Bro - Damn right. Charlie's an idiot If Charlie is an idiot, is it possible team hitting is historically bad because the coaching staff can't keep up with Modern Analytics which involves processing data on pitch sequences on a game by game basis?? (Too complicated for the Board, no endorphins, start insults) - Shut up Bro - Go write children's books...

Two ways this can play out... a) If Vladdy like he can he will make up for Sogard. Or else someone like McKinney or Grichuk or Smoak will play like that for 2 weeks cuz everybodies best two weeks are kind of like Sogards no one else has a hot two weeks. Team continues hitting as is, however without hot Sogard team on base percentage goes into the .270s, Vladdy has to go down, Jansen too maybe So either things will remain about the same (other people making up for Sogard) or if everyone else stays the same it will be a historicly bad team with the worst offense ever.

This is the worst hitting team in team history except for perhaps 1980 It is only May 8th... there is a good chance they'll regresss a bit and end up a fair bit ahead of the 1980 team. Interesting to look at the 1980 team Ernie Whitt hit like Danny Jansen but eventually turned it around. John Mayberry hit like Justin Smoak and was the same age. Damasco Garcia was ridiculously bad but got better ** Loyld Moseby ** at the time probably the most heralded prospect in franchise history a 1/1 I believe, was 20 years old, and did what Vlad is doing... he did this for like 1500 at bats and they seem to have stuck with it. Then he got good **** Garth Iorg was bad - worse than Drury - they gave him playing time for many years where he appears to be crappy then he was good in 85 Willie Upshaw was bad - and got worse. Vlad 1st 10 games like for 60 games in 81.. then he got good. So if the question is - HOW BAD CAN A TEAM THAT EVENTUALLY BE GOOD BE?? The answer is very bad. .280 team on base percentage bad, but, at least in the case of the 1980 Blue Jays, guys that look horrible can eventually do OK and even become pretty good.

At least that's potentially fixable. Jenny Craig?? Atkins?? Keto?? Subway diet?? They should do a pre-game weight in every day. Then instead of his avg, hr, and rbis display on the screen. Vladimir Guerrero JR Weight - Grounders Today's Grounder K''s Today's K's Then tell him just to concentrate on making his stats on the screen look better, every day try for less weight, fewer ks, and fewer grounders... then the rest will work out!

By choppers I mean what you're talking about, he's hitting on top of the ball and hitting grounders. Most of them haven't looked that hard hit to me, but the exit's velocities have actually been pretty high.

Was watching Raptors and didn't see the game. Important question Of the three balls put in play by Vladdy were any of them not choppers?? I see he got a hit? Booming line drive or did he beat out one of the choppers ?

That's no fair to Travis Snider. Travis Snider wasn't all that but got a few in the air like this one. Do you think Vlad will do anything different tonight other than a strike out or 2 and a chopper or two?? Will one of the choppers get through tonight?? With his ground ball rate do you think they'll start playing 5 infielders on him??

If the high fastball, low breaking stuff pattern gets him out, they'll use that just as much with Smoak behind him. Until he starts taking a lot of walks they'll keep using the same strategy. It seems he's gets a couple balls, then low breaking stuff at the bottom of the zone, and there's where he hits his chopper... maybe he needs to wait deeper in the count until he gets something he can put in the air.