Laika

Just to be clear about my own opinions, I think Mike Pelfrey is terrible. I don't think he should even really be considered by Toronto and I agree that the talent gap between him and SP Sanchez isn't very wide. So maybe you think they are both SP5 candidates and comparable. I agree that they are comparable at least.

mmmmmmmmm no I need to make room for Tommy Pham and Wily Peralta. My boys. Unfortunately I might have to cut Preston Tucker and Brandon Drury and Rubby De La Rosa. Sigh.

I'm not pretending anything. I liked him a lot until the walk rate didn't improve in the upper minors and the K rate plummeted. At the time of the Dickey trade, him and Syndergaard were hard to separate. When he didn't develop, my opinion shifted just like any rational person's would have and should have. The shine comes off of a prospect really fast when they reach A+/AA/AAA and their K/BB is that terrible.

Ben Revere is readily available for a draft pick that I can flip for Romo. CF eligible and probably scores 130 runs in Toronto...

huh?

s***** minor league starter relative to other prospects. Not necessarily s***** relative to all minor league starters.

- people were - optimism on him really started dipping in 2013/2014 when his K rate fell as he rose the ladder and his BB rate didn't improve - board opinions aren't directly relevant to the question of whether or not he was a s*** minor league starter. The stats are right there in the open. - someone can be a s***** starter and still be a decent prospect

Well he was and he was. So...

Well, Goins. Muni is just a racist self-deprecating mascot.

Were they rumoured in on Cliff? Why would Toronto want him?

I like how even in a cherry picked string of starts, Sanchez' FIP is still 4.67 and his ratios are still (barf) BB/9 and (blech) K/9. There's just absolutely, fully, completely, resolutely, objectively, certainly no way to look at Aaron Sanchez and see anything approach even a slightly below average MLB starting pitcher. You can still hope that it happens, but you'd be hoping for a major skill change. He was a s*** starter in the minors and an even shittier starter in the majors. His string of big league starts is some of the worst starting pitching Blue Jays fans have seen in the last decade. I struggle to think of many guys who would have made ~10 starts and been as terrible. Drabek would be up there, probably even worse than Sanchez. Aaron Laffey probably. Dana Eveland. Those are his peers..... Jo-Jo Reyes was probably better on paper.

Wonderful get for Seattle Dipoto, for only a reliever (if that's the gist of it).

He's almost one of the last guys that I would target. In a deep FA pitching market, why pay near Ace money for a #2? Iwakuma and Lacker are similarly talented and will cost much, much less overall. Samardzija is basically as good as Zimmerman and might cost a lot less as well. And price matters because ideally Toronto still needs two SP. Going into the season with Hutch as the #6 should be the goal.

Have I? I think when Donaldson was ahead of Trout I would have taken the position that Trout is still better. But looking at their seasons right now, how they ended up, everything seems basically true talent. Trout slightly more talented all things considered. Trout is an average CF and he hit to his talent almost exactly. Donaldson is a plus 3B who probably had a positive noisy offensive season that won't be repeated. Trout still edged him in WAR.

Well the Heyward trade kind of had to happen if they weren't going to have the money to extend him. But the Markakis signing helps your point. Who really knows what the f*** they are or aren't thinking. Clearly, objectively, they are making stupid decisions.

I'm not even sure that defense is noisier or more variant than offense. People just don't trust the measures as much - which is a different argument. You can find outlier defensive seasons in UZR just as easily as you can find outlier offensive seasons in wRC+.

Yes, I suppose. I was talking more generally. GMs will reference AVG and RBI to placate to casual fans; most of the time teams have nothing to gain and something to lose by being open and honest with the media about their thoughts and strategies. Specifically with these comments he's responding to fans who overwhelmingly hate the trade. Internally it probably has to come down to them not valuing defense like most people do, so he's not lying there.

There are so many layers on top of what GMs say publicly. Kind of hard to judge

FREDDIE FREEMAN approximate value, done like an extremely lazy ex-blogger who peddles mostly misinformation and false certainty. Age = 26 Projected WARz = 4 + 4 + 4 + 3.5 + 3 + 2.5 = 21 WARz Total Value = ~$170M, give or take $25M. Give or take $5M on that give or take, too. Cost = 12 + 20.5 + 21 + 21 + 22 + 22 = $118.5M Surplus value = like $50M - Roberto Osuna's value has a ton of variance based on whether or not you think he can start. If we say that he's worth as much as a pitching prospect in the top 26-50 range in baseball, then that's almost $20M. - Let's say Sanchez is worth half of that because I hate him and he's terrible. - Let's say Pompey is a hitting prospect in the same prospect range as Osuna, 26-50th overall. That's worth a few million more than Osuna. So that's a roughly equivalent package to Freeman's value! Pompey + Osuna + Sanchez. I used those guys because every trade parter wants cheap major league pieces or major league ready pieces. If you think Harris, Alford, Vlad Jr., Tellez, or SRF fit into the back end of a top 100 list then they would be worth somewhere around $10M, maybe the low teens. Similar enough to Sanchez. And obviously, specific teams would be much higher and lower on specific prospects. Also of note: - Devon Travis has immense value. He projects as a top 10 second baseman in baseball and is obviously still cheap for half a decade. We're talking about a hypothetical value that approaches Freddie Freeman's surplus value, all on his own. Actually the number would probably be higher than Freeman's on paper. Such a good trade... - Kevin Pillar has similar, sizeable value.

I wonder if that Kimbrel package would have been like 80% of the way to an agreeable deal for Freeman

That's a weird target. Why would he be available and why would you want him?

One of my favourite things about the offseason and the trade deadline is seeing reporters "confirm" things that teams have already announced, or being the 10th guy to "confirm" a trade. I always wonder how some of these people get their sources. Blackmail?

you smell like cheese

Cotillo is basically a reporter now. If you're wonder if you should believe the words that are coming out of his mouth, he's probably as reputable as, say, JP Morosi.

Yeah. He's sort of trying to be legit like Cotillo though. Not exactly sure if he actually has any sources or if he just rides various twitter waves by saying "source: this happened" exactly five seconds after someone else reports it. He didn't break this story, a Philly reporter did.