Laika

If you organize Toronto's rotation by projected talent (Steamer600), Jesse Chavez actually slots into the #2 slot behind Stroman. Of course Steamer is probably way off on Estrada. I think Chavez is certainly better than Hutchison, probably better than Dickey, and maybe better than Estrada.

4.00 FIP = comfortably above average starting pitcher. Like, 2.5 WAR in 200 innings. Mark Buehrle as a Blue Jays had a 4.01 FIP and amassed 7.5 fWAR in 3 years. Getting that for 4.7 million dollars is a pretty big chunk of surplus value

Trading Ubaldo to jays_fever for Harold Ramirez

Miller and Teheran are s***

omg plz unquote so I can remove all traces of this egregious mistake

Lindback outperforming Mike Smith who happens to now be hurt. Pleeeeaaaaasssseeeee let me waiver draft my way to a 3rd starting goalie.

GD's point is the WE should never think about pitch framing as affecting a pitcher's value, because we know better. That it influences FIP can be thought of as a flaw in FIP, really. There's no sense in giving a pitcher credit for a catcher's skill. That Chavez and Hendriks are switching between Vogt/Phegley and Russell Martin has no bearing on their trade values or the trade.

Right - an enormous amount of good/elite relievers in the game are basically reclamation projects. The best reliever in the 2nd best pen (Fields in Houston) was a rule 5 pick. The closer in the 3rd best pen (Miller) was traded for nothing to Boston, non-tendered and then re-signed. The closer and best reliever in the 4th best pen (Rondon - Cubs) was a rule 5 pick.

1. Do the entire calculation. Assuming zero decline (not a great assumption) Hendriks is 3.8 WAR for maybe $10M total in four years. $16.6M surplus. Chavez is 2.0 WAR for $4.7M. So $9.3M surplus. So the gap is like $7M between their total values. 2. Consider whether wins in 2016 are worth more to Toronto than wins in 2017-2019. (they are) 3. Consider what Toronto's positional needs are. (SP) 4. Recognize that park/division effects don't change a normal player's value. (to mention that Chavez is going from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park and imply that this could affect his WAR is beneath your intellect) 5. Avoid flippantly mentioning Chavez' durability concerns. (this seems to have no basis; could say similar things about Hendriks talent due to short track record) It's possible to play with these little value calculation exercises in a bunch of different ways in order to make trades look good or bad. In this case, the value gap between Chaves and Hendriks is pretty small and contextual/situational reasons probably mitigate most/all of the value gap. I gave my little surplus value opinion earlier in the thread.

To clarify the "trash pile" thing, since anecdotes don't help anyone. It's possible to find good hitters in the trash pile. It's a bit easier to find good starters in the trash pile. It's easiest to find good relievers in the trash pile. The "fungibility" level of an asset affects its value, obviously.

Much of this post is hogwash and you know it

Isn't Angel Perdomo eligible? He signed in 2011. Surprised Toronto didn't protect him and Andy Burns. Perdomo is exactly the type of guy that gets picked. A lefty that throws hard. I don't really see the point in protecting DSJ. Pretty bad numbers for a corner outfield prospect. Toronto can also get Wuilmer Becerra back if they want... lol

Doesn't sound like Oakland sees him as a SP or swing man at all. Susan SlusserVerified account ‏@susanslusser David Forst tells me #Athletics definitely see Hendriks as a reliever and as a back-end of the bullpen reliever, definite set-up material. Public opinion can be pretty bad/wrong about sports trades. The Marlins trade probably would have polled an 85% approval rating with that audience.

Jesus christ, do you really think Toronto is getting fooled by park factors in 2015?

Yeah these guys have huge volatility. There's only so much projectable information that you can gather from one relief season. And the only sizeable way for that volatility to act is down with a guy like Hendriks. Look what this guy did after a borderline elite relief season: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11827&position=P

Everybody's velo spikes in the pen, but mostly by ~2.5mph or something like that. Hendriks was up 3.6-3.9 mph this year over his avg FB the last couple of seasons, and up 4.5mph from when he was last exclusively a starting pitcher. So that kind of hints at a somewhat general rise in velocity not entirely tied to relief usage. I guess the tease is that maybe he could have gone back to starting and been a guy sitting 91/92 instead of his old 90. Small differences like that in that range can have meaningful impacts.

It's fine to say that Navarro is an offensive catcher, but it takes it way too far to say that he can cover DH. He projects to be a below average MLB hitter (and he has been his entire time in Toronto). The merits of Dioner Navarro depend entirely on whether or not you buy in to the newfangled advanced catcher stats. If you do entirely, then he is essentially a replacement level player. Maybe you can add some value for "game-calling", which escapes numerical evaluation so far, but that's speculative. If you do not buy into the new stats re: framing and blocking, then Navarro is a solid backup. For reference: His 2.1 fangraphs WAR in 2014 becomes 0.6 when we include framing numbers. His 0.5 WAR from last year becomes 0.2.

I haven't read it in a while, but the guy is a decent writer. He just needs to start posting here so we can learn him. Twitter is a dangerous place to refine your baseball mind

I hope so. I already have one offer that I like as a reserve bid, if nobody else is interested. I just don't really feel like I need to keep 8 or 9 SP. I'd kind of like to move Ubaldo for something decent and then keep Tommy Pham, or move a minor league asset for an elite Holds guy.

Hendriks has a 0.9 WAR projection, which is very good and seems very reasonable. Chavez has a 2.0 WAR projection in 159 innings, which also seems reasonable. If Hendriks remains a good setup man, you're probably looking at something like 2/3.5/5 in arbitration for him. So $11M for 3.8 WAR in four years. Chavez is 2.0 WAR for $4.7M. Hendriks - surplus value of about 19M. Chavez - surplus value of about 11M. But relatively speaking Chavez is very likely to produce his WARz, since they come across only one season. Relievers are so volatile that Hendriks isn't particularly likely to remain this good four seasons from now. It's also possible for Hendriks to get a lot more money than that if he is pushed into the closer role at any time (see Tyler Clippard). The value gap on paper is so negligible that Toronto's present roster considerations almost surely mitigate it. Chavez' WAR upgrade on Toronto's current roster is substantial given how bad the SP depth is. The value of those 2016 wins is highly leveraged due to the quality of Toronto's team and their place on the win curve.

I've decided to trade Ubaldo Jimenez today. Best prospect/pick thing offered today will land him.

"The thing about FIP is it's kind of useless for a guy like Chavez who gives up a ton of contact" The Capital Jays guy just said that to me on the twitter. What a ridiculous statement, from a couple of angles.

Pirates shopping Neil Walker and Orioles are interested? That's a 92 --> 114 park factor upgrade for LHB HR. please

Well that's definitely the garbage clown way of looking at things

You have this weird habit of running tangents off of every discussion stop it