2026 Trade Deadline Thread

[Brownie19]

Man - looking into this Rutschman trade.  1.5 years of Adley for 2 Top 100 prospects and the 15th overall pick in the draft last year?

Seems wild to me.

[Brownie19]

8 hours ago, Gen.Disarray said:

What would "backing the truck up" for Yordan even look like, given that he's not free agent til 2029?

They'd never trade him short of a package that, half of which, would burn your eyes out.

I don't think our entire farm system would be worth Yordan.  We'd have to include Yesavage too.  Seriously.

[Brownie19]

14 hours ago, Omar said:

 

 

That delivery looks a lot better than I expect, based on his BB/9.  He looks filthy.  Him and Carlon give us a couple of tall, high release, nasty lefties in the system.  Me likey.

[Orgfiller]

34 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I don't think our entire farm system would be worth Yordan.  We'd have to include Yesavage too.  Seriously.

As incredible as Yordan is, he's an oft-injured DH with multiple knee surgeries who isn't super cheap - $26M per season - for the next two years. I think if we gave our top 4-5 prospects coming into the deadline: Nimmala, Parker, King, Perry/Stanifer, Keys I'm not sure the Astros are turning that down. That's two top 50 prospects, another two backend top 100, and a guy that's like a 45/45+ FV. Obviously they'd want someone like Yesavage as a centerpiece given that he's the closest to the majors out of all those guys, but then the team wouldn't have to tack on quite so many prospects.

Doubt the Astros would have any real interest in moving him regardless, given their position in the standings in one of the worst divisions in the league.

[Laika]

Funny how prospect lists work. 

A guy like Brett Bateman gets completely written off, vs some of the prospects traded this deadline who show up on team top 20 lists. Fans don't even consider him an asset. They got hosed for 10 Gausman starts. But Bateman is:

• MLB ready, but not some overaged raisin 
• K-BB stud in minors, OBP stud in minors
• Speed and Defense. Might even be plus CF defense. 
• Already projects for 85 wRC+ so no dreaming is required for him to be an MLB contributor 

Guys like this:

• Outperform the random team #14 prospect in A ball, 9 times out of 10. Perhaps more. 
• Have more upside than fans tend to think. It's entirely possible and reasonable to be a 90 wRC+, 2 WAR CF. That's a thing that happens, all the time. And platoons help. 

[Laika]

Is Brad Batman better than Daulton Fartshow RIGHT NOW? 

[Olerud363.354]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

Is Brad Batman better than Daulton Fartshow RIGHT NOW? 

Is there a site that converts minor league stats to major league stats?  

What is the equivalent of Batemen's 2026 Iowa numbers in Toronto?

I'd guess .280 .350 .370 or something.  Not sure about his D.

Now... that is different than a projection.  A projection would include his line from the year he broke his Hamate.  A projection would take into account that his luck may not be as good going forward.  Two different purposes.

Projection: Given the history of this human being and all other human beings tell me what will happen tomorrow. 

Equivalency:  What would happen if this human beings last N events took place in a different place (Toronto instead of Iowa). 

I think the latter is good if we think things maybe changed (because of the Hamate thing).  That's what we'll do when Nimalla hits .350 .450 .800 for 2 weeks early next year, we'll forget about the 3 years of hitting .230, just take the MLB equivalent of his good 2 weeks, and assume now he is prime A-Rod except better. 

[Terminator]

3 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Is there a site that converts minor league stats to major league stats?  

What is the equivalent of Batemen's 2026 Iowa numbers in Toronto?

I'd guess .280 .350 .370 or something.  Not sure about his D.

Now... that is different than a projection.  A projection would include his line from the year he broke his Hamate.  A projection would take into account that his luck may not be as good going forward.  Two different purposes.

Projection: Given the history of this human being and all other human beings tell me what will happen tomorrow. 

Equivalency:  What would happen if this human beings last N events took place in a different place (Toronto instead of Iowa). 

I think the latter is good if we think things maybe changed (because of the Hamate thing).  That's what we'll do when Nimalla hits .350 .450 .800 for 2 weeks early next year, we'll forget about the 3 years of hitting .230, just take the MLB equivalent of his good 2 weeks, and assume now he is prime A-Rod except better. 

There used to be an equivalency calculator and you could punch in the minor league numbers and it would give you the MLB equivalency. Since the projection systems provide some form of that (and a form that most consider better) I think people quit using them and I can't find it anymore. 

[Olerud363.354]

2 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Is there a site that converts minor league stats to major league stats?  

What is the equivalent of Batemen's 2026 Iowa numbers in Toronto?

I'd guess .280 .350 .370 or something.  Not sure about his D.

Now... that is different than a projection.  A projection would include his line from the year he broke his Hamate.  A projection would take into account that his luck may not be as good going forward.  Two different purposes.

Projection: Given the history of this human being and all other human beings tell me what will happen tomorrow. 

Equivalency:  What would happen if this human beings last N events took place in a different place (Toronto instead of Iowa). 

I think the latter is good if we think things maybe changed (because of the Hamate thing).  That's what we'll do when Nimalla hits .350 .450 .800 for 2 weeks early next year, we'll forget about the 3 years of hitting .230, just take the MLB equivalent of his good 2 weeks, and assume now he is prime A-Rod except better. 

Sometimes I type a lot, but I have a nice keyboard in my setup.   I type fast.  This is me posting on fanhome in the 90s.  I have a better setup now but nice keyboard still.  Always on the desk top.

I bet I can write an epic rambling opus faster then you morons can type out your little half constructed sentences on your phones.  

[Terminator]

• Brett Bateman: Lighting up AAA, OBP machine, plus defender in CF, MLB ready, average height, can occasionally hit a home run.
• Ty Southisene: A-ball, might be able to play SS, years away from MLB, he's a midget and physically incapable of hitting a home run

Every single Prospect Rag: "Ty Southisene comes in at #10 on the Cubs' prospect list, meanwhile Brett Bateman ranks 30th..." 

How do they expect us to take them seriously?

[G-Snarls]

Yeah get Bateman up here now and let's see

[max silver]

3 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

As incredible as Yordan is, he's an oft-injured DH with multiple knee surgeries who isn't super cheap - $26M per season - for the next two years. I think if we gave our top 4-5 prospects coming into the deadline: Nimmala, Parker, King, Perry/Stanifer, Keys I'm not sure the Astros are turning that down. That's two top 50 prospects, another two backend top 100, and a guy that's like a 45/45+ FV. Obviously they'd want someone like Yesavage as a centerpiece given that he's the closest to the majors out of all those guys, but then the team wouldn't have to tack on quite so many prospects.

Doubt the Astros would have any real interest in moving him regardless, given their position in the standings in one of the worst divisions in the league.

I think there's approximately zero chance Crane would allow his GM to trade Yordan given how he tends to meddle in the team's attempted dealings.

[Terminator]

Quote

 

Winner: Patient Sellers
Some of the early deals this deadline made me think that the buyers had the upper hand. The Cubs got Kevin Gausman for a relative pittance. Taylor Ward, a righty outfielder in a market completely lacking in that combination, brought back three fringey relief prospects. The Skubal sweepstakes didn’t go completely bonkers. It was a slow buildup.

But as sellers held the line, bids started to increase. The Red Sox gave up two Top 100 prospects and another interesting arm for Adley Rutschman. The Brewers sent a Top 100 prospect to the rival Cardinals for two rental players, the Milwaukee front office equivalent of a bender. The Red Sox cut bait on Marcelo Mayer for relief help. The Cubs decided that they needed more pitching – even after getting Gausman, David Peterson (earlier), and Braxton Garrett – and sent out a Top 100 prospect of their own for Clay Holmes.

Not every trade followed this pattern of better returns as the deadline approached. The Nats held onto Foster Griffin until the last minute and then had to settle for four marginal prospects instead of just keeping him. But I think the shape of it makes sense. While plenty of teams seemed happy to go into the deadline with a halfway approach, offloading a few pending free agents or adding around the edges, there weren’t many motivated sellers, teams that knew they were out of the race and had valuable players to move. That meant that as the clock ticked down, the negotiating leverage swung.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/winners-and-losers-from-the-2026-trade-deadline/

There's a lot of truth to this.

Skubal trade was a damn joke.

And I think Ross might be on to something with Bateman but even so, the Cubs gave up Rojas who is a Top 100 prospect for Clay Holmes the next day. 

[Jays24]

Jorge Soler was just DFA'd... hed be 2nd on our team in HRs.  Can Popkins "fix" him? Lol

[glory]

Ross seems like the type of GM who would have waited 20 hours and still traded for Bateman. In other words he targets who he wants and gets them regardless of how they are perceived. I don't think waiting would have dramatically changed the return for Gausman, but who knows. 

[BTS]

Brewers apparently went pretty hard after Skubal, but Detroit wanted an MLB-ready pitcher. So it probably would have cost them Logan Henderson + good pieces. 

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, Terminator said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/winners-and-losers-from-the-2026-trade-deadline/

Website that publishes a Top Prospects List really wants you all to think that Top Prospect Lists matter.

Jefferson Rojas has a 114 wRC+ in AA after a 113 last year. 

Brett Bateman has a 50% chance to accumulate more WAR by next thanksgiving than Jefferson Rojas will have in his entire career 

[Laika]

23 minutes ago, glory said:

Ross seems like the type of GM who would have waited 20 hours and still traded for Bateman. In other words he targets who he wants and gets them regardless of how they are perceived. I don't think waiting would have dramatically changed the return for Gausman, but who knows. 

There was a lot of starting pitching available so waiting had the obvious risk of being the team left holding the bag 

I see his logic in moving quicker on the Gausman trade 

[Olerud363.354]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

Every single Prospect Rag: "Ty Southisene comes in at #10 on the Cubs' prospect list, meanwhile Brett Bateman ranks 30th..." 

According to this write-up he is one of the least phyical players in the draft but got an over-slot 1 million dollar bonus anyway and he also has twitchy athleticism and solid speed.    None of it quite makes sense, but he was sort of rated like high enough to get 1 million even before BA put him in the Cubs top 10. 

 

One of the least physical players in the 2024 Draft at 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, Southisene nonetheless has a long track record of performing well on the showcase circuit and for USA Baseball. The Cubs selected him in the fourth round in July and paid him an over-slot $1 million to lure him away from a Tennessee commitment.

Southisene's twitchy athleticism, solid speed and high baseball IQ enhance his effectiveness on the bases and at shortstop. He has quick feet and hands at short, where his average arm is a bit light for the position, though he compensates with a fast release. He could end up at second base in the long run.

[G-Snarls]

Atkins is going to be on Blair and Barker shortly

Not that he ever says much...

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

There was a lot of starting pitching available so waiting had the obvious risk of being the team left holding the bag 

I see his logic in moving quicker on the Gausman trade 

That's a good reminder of how complex the trade deadline is for those who love to blame their team's GM for not reading the market corrected at all times.

[Laika]

 

 

[Omar]

44 minutes ago, Laika said:

 

 

That model seems very rudimentary and wrong to boot.

[Laika]

It is super wrong and cannot be trusted but I posted it anyway 

[Omar]

Just now, Laika said:

It is super wrong and cannot be trusted but I posted it anyway 

Good to know, your stock was going to drop without that clarification. 

[HomeRunHomer]

Sellers win buyers lose!

[Bob_Gratton]

4 hours ago, Terminator said:

There used to be an equivalency calculator and you could punch in the minor league numbers and it would give you the MLB equivalency. Since the projection systems provide some form of that (and a form that most consider better) I think people quit using them and I can't find it anymore. 

Maybe he can be as good Juan Pierre was with the Marlins.

[Bob_Gratton]

Cubs Prospect Profile: Brett Bateman - NPG Sports

[metafour]

5 hours ago, Laika said:

Funny how prospect lists work. 

A guy like Brett Bateman gets completely written off, vs some of the prospects traded this deadline who show up on team top 20 lists. Fans don't even consider him an asset. They got hosed for 10 Gausman starts. But Bateman is:

• MLB ready, but not some overaged raisin 
• K-BB stud in minors, OBP stud in minors
• Speed and Defense. Might even be plus CF defense. 
• Already projects for 85 wRC+ so no dreaming is required for him to be an MLB contributor 

Guys like this:

• Outperform the random team #14 prospect in A ball, 9 times out of 10. Perhaps more. 
• Have more upside than fans tend to think. It's entirely possible and reasonable to be a 90 wRC+, 2 WAR CF. That's a thing that happens, all the time. And platoons help. 

 

There is definitely truth to this. Guys like this slip under the radar all the time and end up way out-producing their ranking because they were never properly ranked in the first place. I think that Bateman is sneaky-interesting and basically MLB ready. A lot will depend on just how good his defense in CF is.

I still think that they sold too early on Gausman given how much stronger the returns were yesterday. I'm not sure if they maybe really liked Bateman (or Southisene for whatever reason?) and were maybe worried that they'd get dealt in a different deal if they waited the Cubs out.

[sliderguy35]

i really don't understand all the love for bateman, he'd need to be a jacob young / kyle isbel / brenton doyle level defender to even sniff big league relevancy, the offensive profile he brings just does not play at the big league level at all. 

guys who juice their obp in the minors through passivity without having some other kind of carrying offensive tool end up as bench players or out of the league sooner rather than later. I looked at the last 15 years of AAA minor league data (min 250 PAs) for guys who had a 50+% GB rate, a 12%+ BB rate, and an ISO under 0.150  so essentially, guys who walk a lot but don't have power or the ability to lift the ball. out of 93 seasons, there are 2 guys who you'd consider good major leaguers: yandy diaz & ivan herrera (both of whom have ++ bat speed)

it's hard to have confidence that this is the center fielder of the future for a contending team