Ross Atkins Opened the Door to the Blue Jays Adding a Closer

[Bob Ritchie]

During his November 6 media availability, a reporter asked Ross Atkins about Jeff Hoffman’s role as Toronto’s closer. “The great thing about Jeff is he’s not married to that,” Atkins said. “I think he would be open to anything that makes us better.” In the same media event, Atkins indicated that Toronto was open to improving the team through any means. So, if Toronto is open to adding a bona fide closer in the free-agent market, who are some closers worth considering?

Hoffman had a disappointing 2025. On the positive side, among all pitchers, his Whiff% and K% were both in the 83rd percentile. However, his xERA, BB% and Barrel% percentile rankings were 57th, 26th and 1st, respectively. Furthermore, surrendering home runs was an issue, not only in Game 7 of the World Series but also during the regular season. Hoffman’s 2025 regular-season HR/9 was 1.99, tied for the second-highest among 144 relievers with at least 50 innings pitched. Therefore, although I am confident that Hoffman will be better next year, one can understand why Toronto would consider adding a closer to its 2026 bullpen.

I identified four free-agent closers as options for the Blue Jays: Edwin Díaz, Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, and Devin Williams. These relievers were the first four closers listed on MLB Trade Rumors' (“MLBTR”) list of the top 50 free agents.

Before I delve into the 2025 results of these closers, let’s review how they performed in the three seasons before. Consider Table 1.

The listed relievers had impressive resumes before the 2025 campaign. All of them posted 89th percentile or higher wOBA marks, and Díaz, Iglesias and Williams generated xwOBA scores in the 95th percentile or higher. Also, one can see why Toronto was interested in Hoffman, given his percentile rankings in K%, K-BB%, wOBA, xwOBA, and Whiff%. Hoffman, although not elite during the 2022-2024 seasons, was particularly good. Now to the most recent season!

Table 2 shows some 2025 pitching metrics for the noted pitchers. Except for BB%, Díaz was elite in 2025. His xERA/xwOBA was 99th percentile, as were his K-BB% and Whiff%. Furthermore, Díaz's Barrel/PA% was at the 96th percentile. In other words, his opponents swung and missed at an elevated rate. However, when they connected, those batters barreled the ball at an exceptionally low rate.

Iglesias, although not elite like Díaz, was very good in 2025. Other than his barrel rate, Iglesias was much better than the median reliever last season. His xERA/xwOBA, K-BB%, and Whiff% were in the 78th percentile or better. However, he did record a high Barrel%.

Suarez has had an interesting journey to MLB. The Venezuelan-born player pitched in Nippon Professional Baseball from 2018 to 2021. He made his MLB debut with the Padres in 2022 in his age-31 season and posted a 3.27 xERA and a 3.22 FIP. Fast forward to 2025, wherein Suarez posted some impressive and some concerning numbers. His wOBA was 96th percentile. However, his xERA/xwOBA was 57th. Also, batters barreled up his pitches at a high rate (Barrel% in the 29th percentile), and they did not swing and miss at a high rate, given his 33rd percentile Whiff%.

Williams had a noteworthy 2025 for the Yankees. From a headline perspective, he posted a 4.79 ERA and lost his job as closer. However, under the hood, he performed well last season. Williams generated an xERA/xwOBA in the 80th percentile, and his Whiff%, K% and K-BB% were 94th percentile or better. However, his BB% was high (32nd percentile), and his Barrel/BBE% was 25th percentile.

Table 3 has more 2025 numbers to consider. The highlights are as follows:

• Except for Hoffman, the listed closers posted particularly good to excellent FIP numbers.
• Of the 144 relievers with at least 50 innings, Díaz's 3.73 WPA was fourth highest, and Suarez’s 3.16 WPA tied for sixth best. For Iglesias, Williams, and Hoffman, their WPA scores ranked 53rd, 105th and 117th, respectively.
• Regarding Save%, even elite closers (Díaz and Suarez) blow saves. Hoffman, who had some notable blown save opportunities, posted an average Save%.

Furthermore, in terms of xwOBA splits by batter handedness, all four closers had better numbers against right-handed hitters than left-handed batters. Still, none had xwOBA stats that exceeded the MLB average when facing left-handed batters. In summary, these free-agent closers are worthy candidates for a role as Toronto’s closer for the 2026 season. Let’s talk contracts!

Concerning contract estimates, I will put my calculator aside and rely on MLBTR and FanGraphs. Behold Table 4!

The first matter to note is that Díaz is the only closer to receive a qualifying offer from his previous team. Second, Toronto is a competitive balance taxpayer. Accordingly, if the Blue Jays signed Díaz to a contract, they would “lose their second- and fifth-highest selections, as well as $1 million from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period” (per MLB.com).

Another issue to note is that, except for Williams, the MLBTR and FanGraphs contract estimates are similar. Apparently, MLBTR believes the market will look past Williams' high 2025 ERA, demotion from the closer role, and the non-receipt of a qualifying offer. On the other hand, FanGraphs appears to think the market for Williams’ services will be more muted than MLBTR does.

A word or two on risk. First, relievers can exhibit significant performance volatility from one season to another due to small sample sizes, injuries, and other factors. For example, in 2022, the relievers in the top three in saves were Emmanuel Clase, Kenley Jansen and Liam Hendriks. After 2022, Clase and Jansen posted xERA figures that were at least 0.87 runs higher than their 2022 marks. Specifically, during the 2023-2025 period, Clase generated a 2.84 xERA and Jansen a 3.40 xERA. Unfortunately, Hendriks pitched only 18 innings after 2022. Also, although it is not a reliever risk per se, Clase is currently under indictment in a gambling scandal that may end his MLB career. Accordingly, projecting a reliever’s future performance level is not an easy task.

The second point concerning risk is age. These four free-agent closers are in their 30s. Hence, the impact of aging is an issue. Accordingly, I present Table 5. For information regarding Stuff+ and Pitching+, please take a look at the FanGraphs website. Based on the Pitching+ numbers, unlike Díaz and Iglesias, Williams and Suarez have not displayed a worrying deterioration in their respective pitching process.

Lastly, courtesy of Spotrac, a history of recent injuries for the closers:

• Díaz underwent knee surgery and did not play during the 2023 season. Also, he had a shoulder impingement in 2024 and was on the IL (May 29 to June 13).
• Atlanta placed Iglesias on the IL in 2023 (March 30 to May 5) with a shoulder strain.
• In 2022, Suarez had a stint on the IL (June 7 to August 6) with a knee ailment. During the following season, the Padres placed him on the IL (March 30 to July 20) with elbow inflammation.
• Williams landed on the IL in 2024 (March 28 to July 28) due to stress fractures in his back.

The Last Word
If I had to sign one of these closers, I would opt for Williams. He is the youngest of the group, his Pitching+ history does not suggest a near-term performance decline, and his 2025 showing was not as poor as his 4.79 ERA suggests. If MLBTR has overstated his market value, there may be a worthwhile opportunity to sign him to a shorter, less expensive deal.

Díaz has been elite. However, a four-year, $82 million contract is too rich (and risky) given signs of performance decline (Stuff+ and Pitching+). Also, the loss of draft picks and international pool money is a sizeable additional cost. Iglesias would be a nice add as a set-up reliever, but he does not appear to be a noticeable upgrade over Hoffman. Suarez is tempting, but a three-year deal will take him to his age-37 season, which is very risky. Also, his elevated 2025 xERA gives me pause.

If Toronto considers adding a closer for the 2026 season, Díaz, Iglesias, Suarez, and Williams are worthy free agent candidates. There are, of course, other options available to Toronto, including other free agents and the trade market. Let the articles flow!

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[Spanky__99]

If we were to spend big money on a closer, Edwin's the man, don't get much more consistent than him. Williams was great under the hood, I agree if we can get him on a discount that would be pretty sexy as well.

[Orgfiller]

Diaz is excellent, but you could probably sign Suarez and Fairbanks for less money and term than Diaz would command on his own.

[jaysblue]

Williams could be a good bargain possibly. Pretty much before this season, he was almost on the same level as Diaz when it came to elite relievers. 

You can probably sign him for less term which is also a plus. 

[SeranthonySantander]

3 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

If we were to spend big money on a closer, Edwin's the man, don't get much more consistent than him. Williams was great under the hood, I agree if we can get him on a discount that would be pretty sexy as well.

Jays met with his agents so there is interest 

[Terminator]

 

[Terminator]

I highly doubt that the Mets let Diaz walk.

Maybe they wouldn't match a 5 year offer but that would be outrageous for us to give him that.

[glory]

Yeah Diaz going back to the Mets probably makes the most sense. Losing a pick and spending huge money on a closer is probably not something most teams will have the appetite for. The Jays have the combination of need, money, and possibly desperation given how bad their closer situation was in 2025 (cost them a title), so maybe it's something they'd be willing to do, but realistically if they are in on Tucker/Bo and the higher end SP's, then not sure they'd want to allocate that much to a closer. But if you're looking at a realistic Diaz market, the Jays are likely there. I don't think there will be many teams in that market (realistically). 

[Terminator]

 

 

[Laika]

Not sure the Mets or their fans even love Diaz. 

Yeah his overall numbers are dominant but he has had two years with them where he had pedestrian ERAs and one with a pedestrian save rate. There might be a perception that he is too erratic and unreliable. 

[Terminator]

Let's make the Mets earn it by offering him 4/80.

 

[Nexii]

Do they really need to? Isn't Garcia expected to come back?

[Bob Ritchie]

24 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Do they really need to? Isn't Garcia expected to come back?

Garcia is recovering from elbow surgery, and 2026 will be his age-35 season. He had two elbow-related stints on the IL in 2024: Toronto (June 24 to July 19) and Seattle (August 20 to the end of the 2024 season). In 2025, Garcia was twice on the IL: May 24 to July 2 (shoulder) and July 5 to the end of the season (ankle). Garcia has pitched only 30 innings since the 2024 trade to Seattle, and not well (ERA: 4.50, xERA: 5.30, FIP: 4.88).

My preference would be for Toronto to plan for Garcia to be unavailable or ineffective in 2026. If he can be effective, then it would be a bonus.

[Funky]

You might almost be able to sign both Fairbanks and Williams for close to the price Díaz will command. I don’t care who it is, just add one of these guys and with a year of  Varland and some of injured guys coming back and a possibility of late season Ricky T  out of the pen we are miles ahead of last year.  

[Jonn]

Rogers has what everyone wants. f*** you money. Money to waste. I think it’s a large possibility the Jays go over the luxury tax for one Season knowing they have a lot of salary coming off the books next Season.

Over $54 million for Gausman + Springer + Garcia alone.

I think the Jays coming out of this market with one of the best bats, top end starter, and top end reliever very possible.

I don’t think they will get Bo + Tucker + Cease + Diaz but you can make a mathematical case they could get 3 of those 4.

[Buster]

I still have PTSD from BJ Ryan.