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Posted
6 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

This attempt would be after we miss out on bigger fish, right?

I think i see it something like bo, imai, okamoto plus a reliever. That would be a good offseason for me. 

You could run lineups like 

DH Springer

RF Barger 

1B Vlad

2B Bo

LF Santander 

C Kirk 

CF Varsho 

3B Okamoto

SS Gimenez/ Clement 

And then you know you will have injuries. That is a deep lineup: 

 

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

I think i see it something like bo, imai, okamoto plus a reliever. That would be a good offseason for me. 

You could run lineups like 

DH Springer

RF Barger 

1B Vlad

2B Bo

LF Santander 

C Kirk 

CF Varsho 

3B Okamoto

SS Gimenez/ Clement 

And then you know you will have injuries. That is a deep lineup: 

 

 

 

And that also brings the payroll to 300M+, lol. I think we should temper our expectations a bit. 😜

Posted
2 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

And that also brings the payroll to 300M+, lol. I think we should temper our expectations a bit. 😜

Bo, Imai and Okamoto would be about 70m more to payroll i'd say roughly? So, $40m more than last year. Not terrible. 

Posted
1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

Bo, Imai and Okamoto would be about 70m more to payroll i'd say roughly? So, $40m more than last year. Not terrible. 

Estimated payroll is at 233M right now after Bieber opting in, thankfully. That's 70M without bringing in a reliever that you mentioned, it's well over the final CBT at 304M, they don't need Okamoto with Clement/Barger/Santander/Lukes et al on this roster.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Estimated payroll is at 233M right now after Bieber opting in, thankfully. That's 70M without bringing in a reliever that you mentioned, it's well over the final CBT at 304M, they don't need Okamoto with Clement/Barger/Santander/Lukes et al on this roster.

I see 226 on spotrac minus sandlin, so about 224. We were at 255 last year. I don't see 295 or so as that crazy. 

Posted

I keep seeing us being linked to Valdez, anyone worried? Good pitcher and all I guess but what a dickhead. Idk about okamoto being a good fit either. Hopefully we’ll see some top end reliever moves over the weekend to get the ball rolling here 

Posted
1 hour ago, Pendleton said:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25292078-ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-free-agent-destination-2025-26-offseason

 

Bleacher report ranks the 30 MLB teams as free agent destinations. The Jays are ranked at #3 behind the Dodgers and Mets 

Nice read. 

Amongst MLB players, there is always the allure to play for a team like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers or Cubs. You can likely throw the Mets in that group now as well, since they're spending money. 

Toronto after this season is definitely a top destination for free agents. Given the new upgrades at the Rogers Centre, the Postseason run they went on, the job ownership and the front office have done in creating the culture like they have, a lot of players now will consider Toronto. While the cost of living here is high, it's not as expensive as New York, Boston, LA or San Fran. Plus the USD goes a long way up here. As for weather, baseball is played during the spring/summer and fall, so its not like players live up her during the winter lol. The only awful month is April, but it's no different than weather in New York, Boston or Chicago at that time of year. 

Teams like Houston, Texas, and Arizona definitely have an advantage on low-cost of living and with income taxes. The teams in Florida also have that advantage, but the Rays and Marlins aren't really top destinations for free agents given their ballparks and payroll situation. 

Posted
6 hours ago, jmomcc said:

I see 226 on spotrac minus sandlin, so about 224. We were at 255 last year. I don't see 295 or so as that crazy. 

I'm using Fangraphs payroll chart...

 

TORONTO BLUE JAYS PLAYER PAYROLL

Estimated 2026 Payroll: $233M Legend: FREE AGENT Club Option Player Option Mutual Option Vesting Option  
Estimated Final 2025 Payroll: $258M Estimated Value|Money Owed to Team

Players With Guaranteed Salaries

Player Age Service Time Contract AAV 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 26.7 6.157 14 yr, $500M (2026-39) $35,714,286 $40,214,286 $40,214,286 $39,214,286 $38,214,286 $37,714,286 $37,714,286 $37,714,286
George Springer 36.2 11.166 6 yr, $150M (2021-26) $25,000,000 $24,166,667 FREE AGENT          
Kevin Gausman 34.9 11.151 5 yr, $110M (2022-26) $22,000,000 $23,000,000 FREE AGENT          
Andrés Giménez 27.2 5.106 7 yr, $106.5M (2023-29), 2030 club option $19,371,429 $15,571,429 $23,571,429 $23,571,429 $23,571,429 $23,000,000    
José Berríos 31.5 9.044 7 yr, $131M (2022-28); can opt out after 2026 $18,714,286 $18,714,286 $24,714,286 $24,714,286 FREE AGENT      
Shane Bieber 30.5 7.097 2 yr, $26M (2025-26) $14,555,102 $16,000,000 FREE AGENT          
Anthony Santander 31.1 7.162 5 yr, $92.5M (2025-29), 2030 club option; can opt out after 2027; can void by picking up option; deferrals lower AAV $14,314,441 $21,000,000 $21,000,000 $14,750,000 $12,750,000 $15,000,000    
Alejandro Kirk 27.0 5.047 5 yr, $58M (2026-30) $11,600,000 $8,700,000 $12,325,000 $12,325,000 $12,325,000 $12,325,000 FREE AGENT  
Jeff Hoffman 32.9 7.084 3 yr, $33M (2025-27) $11,000,000 $12,666,667 $12,666,667 FREE AGENT        
Myles Straw 31.1 5.125 5 yr, $25M (2022-26), 2027-28 club options $7,775,000 $7,400,000 $8,000,000 $8,500,000        
Yimi García 35.2 10.149 2 yr, $15M (2025-26) $7,500,000 $7,500,000 FREE AGENT          
Yariel Rodríguez 28.7 2.000 5 yr, $32M (2024-27), 2028 player option; team has $10M club option if player option declined $6,400,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000        
Service time is updated through 2025.
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026 are courtesy of MLBTradeRumors,
which uses a model created by Matt Swartz.
Legend: Estimated Arb

Players Eligible For Arbitration

Player Age Service Time Contract AAV 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Daulton Varsho 29.4 5.128 1 yr, TBD (2026)   $9,700,000 FREE AGENT          
Eric Lauer 30.5 5.091 1 yr, TBD (2026)   $4,400,000 FREE AGENT          
Ernie Clement 29.7 3.168 1 yr, TBD (2026)   $4,300,000 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT      
Tyler Heineman 34.4 3.066 1 yr, TBD (2026)   $1,000,000 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT      

Notable Players Not Yet Eligible For Arbitration

Player Age Service Time Contract AAV 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Bowden Francis 29.6 2.098 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT    
Davis Schneider 26.8 2.029 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT    
Louis Varland 27.9 1.163 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT  
Brendon Little 29.3 1.135 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT  
Addison Barger 26.0 1.103 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD Pre-ARB ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT  
Nathan Lukes 31.3 1.145 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT  
Braydon Fisher 25.3 0.145 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD Pre-ARB ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT
Trey Yesavage 22.3 0.014 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD Pre-ARB Pre-ARB ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT
Estimated salaries for other pre-arbitration players $14,040,000            

Other Payments

Description 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Myles Straw signing bonus -$400,000            
Andrés Giménez signing bonus -$571,429 -$571,429 -$571,429 -$571,429      
$ owed from CLE (Myles Straw trade) -$1,000,000 -$1,750,000          
$ due for potential buyout of Myles Straw   $1,750,000          
$ due for potential buyout of Anthony Santander         $5,000,000    
$ due for potential buyout of Andrés Giménez         $2,500,000    
Estimated Payroll $233,401,904 $141,920,238 $114,003,571 $86,289,285 $57,539,286 $37,714,286 $37,714,286
Totals for estimated payrolls include potential buyouts and not option total

Other Payments (Luxury Tax)

Description 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Shane Bieber AAV adjustment (credited for unpaid buyout, prorated to time with team) -$1,268,816            

Luxury Tax Payroll Estimate

Description 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster) $193,944,543 $117,114,441 $99,714,441 $81,000,156 $47,314,286 $35,714,286 $35,714,286
Salaries for players eligible for arbitration $19,400,000            
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts no longer on the 40-man roster              
Sum of Other Payments (does not include potential buyouts) -$1,971,429 -$2,321,429 -$571,429 -$571,429      
Sum of Other Payments (Luxury Tax Only) -$1,268,816            
Estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration and other players with non-guaranteed contracts $14,040,000            
Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in minor leagues $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000
Estimated player benefits to be paid $18,000,000 $18,500,000 $19,000,000 $19,500,000 $20,000,000 $20,500,000 $21,000,000
Payment into $50M pre-arbitration bonus pool $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667
Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll $246,310,965 $137,459,679 $122,309,679 $104,095,394 $71,480,953 $60,380,953 $60,880,953
Totals for estimated luxury tax payrolls include potential buyouts and not option total

LUXURY TAX EXPLANATION AND OTHER PAYROLL NOTES

  1. The luxury tax thresholds for 2026 are $244M, $264M, $284M, $304M, with increasingly sharp penalties for surpassing each threshold.
Posted
26 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

I'm using Fangraphs payroll chart...

 

TORONTO BLUE JAYS PLAYER PAYROLL

Estimated 2026 Payroll: $233M Legend: FREE AGENT Club Option Player Option Mutual Option Vesting Option  
Estimated Final 2025 Payroll: $258M Estimated Value|Money Owed to Team

Players With Guaranteed Salaries

Player Age Service Time Contract AAV 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 26.7 6.157 14 yr, $500M (2026-39) $35,714,286 $40,214,286 $40,214,286 $39,214,286 $38,214,286 $37,714,286 $37,714,286 $37,714,286
George Springer 36.2 11.166 6 yr, $150M (2021-26) $25,000,000 $24,166,667 FREE AGENT          
Kevin Gausman 34.9 11.151 5 yr, $110M (2022-26) $22,000,000 $23,000,000 FREE AGENT          
Andrés Giménez 27.2 5.106 7 yr, $106.5M (2023-29), 2030 club option $19,371,429 $15,571,429 $23,571,429 $23,571,429 $23,571,429 $23,000,000    
José Berríos 31.5 9.044 7 yr, $131M (2022-28); can opt out after 2026 $18,714,286 $18,714,286 $24,714,286 $24,714,286 FREE AGENT      
Shane Bieber 30.5 7.097 2 yr, $26M (2025-26) $14,555,102 $16,000,000 FREE AGENT          
Anthony Santander 31.1 7.162 5 yr, $92.5M (2025-29), 2030 club option; can opt out after 2027; can void by picking up option; deferrals lower AAV $14,314,441 $21,000,000 $21,000,000 $14,750,000 $12,750,000 $15,000,000    
Alejandro Kirk 27.0 5.047 5 yr, $58M (2026-30) $11,600,000 $8,700,000 $12,325,000 $12,325,000 $12,325,000 $12,325,000 FREE AGENT  
Jeff Hoffman 32.9 7.084 3 yr, $33M (2025-27) $11,000,000 $12,666,667 $12,666,667 FREE AGENT        
Myles Straw 31.1 5.125 5 yr, $25M (2022-26), 2027-28 club options $7,775,000 $7,400,000 $8,000,000 $8,500,000        
Yimi García 35.2 10.149 2 yr, $15M (2025-26) $7,500,000 $7,500,000 FREE AGENT          
Yariel Rodríguez 28.7 2.000 5 yr, $32M (2024-27), 2028 player option; team has $10M club option if player option declined $6,400,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000        
Service time is updated through 2025.
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026 are courtesy of MLBTradeRumors,
which uses a model created by Matt Swartz.
Legend: Estimated Arb

Players Eligible For Arbitration

Player Age Service Time Contract AAV 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Daulton Varsho 29.4 5.128 1 yr, TBD (2026)   $9,700,000 FREE AGENT          
Eric Lauer 30.5 5.091 1 yr, TBD (2026)   $4,400,000 FREE AGENT          
Ernie Clement 29.7 3.168 1 yr, TBD (2026)   $4,300,000 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT      
Tyler Heineman 34.4 3.066 1 yr, TBD (2026)   $1,000,000 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT      

Notable Players Not Yet Eligible For Arbitration

Player Age Service Time Contract AAV 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Bowden Francis 29.6 2.098 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT    
Davis Schneider 26.8 2.029 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT    
Louis Varland 27.9 1.163 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT  
Brendon Little 29.3 1.135 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT  
Addison Barger 26.0 1.103 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD Pre-ARB ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT  
Nathan Lukes 31.3 1.145 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT  
Braydon Fisher 25.3 0.145 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD Pre-ARB ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 ARB 4 FREE AGENT
Trey Yesavage 22.3 0.014 1 yr, TBD (2026)   TBD Pre-ARB Pre-ARB ARB 1 ARB 2 ARB 3 FREE AGENT
Estimated salaries for other pre-arbitration players $14,040,000            

Other Payments

Description 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Myles Straw signing bonus -$400,000            
Andrés Giménez signing bonus -$571,429 -$571,429 -$571,429 -$571,429      
$ owed from CLE (Myles Straw trade) -$1,000,000 -$1,750,000          
$ due for potential buyout of Myles Straw   $1,750,000          
$ due for potential buyout of Anthony Santander         $5,000,000    
$ due for potential buyout of Andrés Giménez         $2,500,000    
Estimated Payroll $233,401,904 $141,920,238 $114,003,571 $86,289,285 $57,539,286 $37,714,286 $37,714,286
Totals for estimated payrolls include potential buyouts and not option total

Other Payments (Luxury Tax)

Description 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Shane Bieber AAV adjustment (credited for unpaid buyout, prorated to time with team) -$1,268,816            

Luxury Tax Payroll Estimate

Description 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster) $193,944,543 $117,114,441 $99,714,441 $81,000,156 $47,314,286 $35,714,286 $35,714,286
Salaries for players eligible for arbitration $19,400,000            
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts no longer on the 40-man roster              
Sum of Other Payments (does not include potential buyouts) -$1,971,429 -$2,321,429 -$571,429 -$571,429      
Sum of Other Payments (Luxury Tax Only) -$1,268,816            
Estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration and other players with non-guaranteed contracts $14,040,000            
Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in minor leagues $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000
Estimated player benefits to be paid $18,000,000 $18,500,000 $19,000,000 $19,500,000 $20,000,000 $20,500,000 $21,000,000
Payment into $50M pre-arbitration bonus pool $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667 $1,666,667
Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll $246,310,965 $137,459,679 $122,309,679 $104,095,394 $71,480,953 $60,380,953 $60,880,953
Totals for estimated luxury tax payrolls include potential buyouts and not option total

LUXURY TAX EXPLANATION AND OTHER PAYROLL NOTES

  1. The luxury tax thresholds for 2026 are $244M, $264M, $284M, $304M, with increasingly sharp penalties for surpassing each threshold.

I wonder what the difference is. Their arb estimates are a tad lower than spotrac as well.

Posted
23 hours ago, max silver said:

Did you miss the first wave of talent that came up in 2019-2020? That included players like Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Gurriel, Kirk, Moreno etc. That's a massive pool of talent, but these players don't count for some reason.

Pitching development has been a real sore point, but Manoah and Yesavage both seem like solid MLB pitchers to me.

 

Ross didn't sign Vladdy for starters and Biggio sucked and still sucks. 

Saying that Manoah is a solid MLB pitcher is ludicrous. 

The best move Ross has made was hiring Pop. 

Posted
50 minutes ago, gruber9292 said:

The best move Ross has made was hiring Pop. 

Scored more runs in 2021 and 2022 (with respect to league average)

I was critical of Shapiro and Atkins in late 2023 when it looked like they were way behind the curve with respect to Baltimore and Tampa Bay.  2025 that has obviously changed.  Is it sustainable?  We will see.

Interesting to look at key players (by WAR) and how Atkins got them

Bichette, Kirk, Barger, Schneider, Yesivage - signed/drafted developed by Atkins

Guerrero - signed by AA, developed by Atkins team, signed long term by Atkins

Springer, Gaussman, Bassit, Hoffman, Santander - big ticket free agent signings.

Clement, Straw, Lukes, Lauer, Heineman - Free struggling minor league vet reclamation projects (I know Straw was kind of accidental but still fits that profile as he was in the minors all of 2024)

Varsho, Berrios, Giminez, Bieber - acquired for Atkins draft picks Morena/Martin/Horwitz

Probably forgetting a few people and bullpen pieces

 

Posted
17 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

Gotta be embarrassing being Craig.  Cavan is every HOF players worst fear.  

Rather have had Cavan on the team then IKF I think.  Just the story.  Legacy trio wins world series

1.  Vlad Guerrero greatest playoffs ever

2. Bo Bichette inspirational comeback and big World Series hits on one knee

3. Cavan Biggio - hits .100 and scores winning run with 80th percentile sprint speed and max use of sliding glove

Craig would be proud for sure.    

Posted
5 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Rather have had Cavan on the team then IKF I think.  Just the story.  Legacy trio wins world series

1.  Vlad Guerrero greatest playoffs ever

2. Bo Bichette inspirational comeback and big World Series hits on one knee

3. Cavan Biggio - hits .100 and scores winning run with 80th percentile sprint speed and max use of sliding glove

Craig would be proud for sure.    

Yea it would have been cool considering their dads never won a WS.  Dalton Varshos dad too, but he wasn't good.

Posted
11 hours ago, jmomcc said:

I'm definitely keeping Jimenez. I think he is like a 2.5 WAR player. Its worth keeping. 

He’s good defensively but not much with the bat. But he effectively is replacing IKF so I guess I don’t care that much.

Posted
11 minutes ago, Jonn said:

He’s good defensively but not much with the bat. But he effectively is replacing IKF so I guess I don’t care that much.

I think the key for him is for his eye that he has shown at triple A to translate to the bigs. Looking at his at bats it seems like he has a good judgement of the strike zone, but it hasn't really translated yet. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, Jonn said:

He’s good defensively but not much with the bat. But he effectively is replacing IKF so I guess I don’t care that much.

He has an almost .400 minor league on base percentage.  The projection systems don't seem to like him that much, but still project him as better hitter than IKF.   Projected for a .320 on base in the majors. 

Just eyeballing the projections they have him at 1/2 a win better than IKF in limited time. 

Posted
11 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

That 70S Show Lol GIF by IFC

I think gruber is just a full blown troll account at this point. I don't believe anyone can actually be as stupid as him and genuinely care about the team to post on a message board about.

Posted
12 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

This attempt would be after we miss out on bigger fish, right? Like Bo or Belli... I don't think Tucker's worth 10/400M that money makes me uneasy.

He seems to be worth pretty close to that, at least on the front half of the contract. He's put up 4.2 WAR or higher for 5 straight years (including his half year in 2024). Fangraphs pegs that at 39.4, 38.9, 39.3, 33.7, 36. I'd be more concerned about his durability as he ages. Regardless, he's probably not in the budget unless we can't resign Bo.

Posted
1 hour ago, Abomination said:

He seems to be worth pretty close to that, at least on the front half of the contract. He's put up 4.2 WAR or higher for 5 straight years (including his half year in 2024). Fangraphs pegs that at 39.4, 38.9, 39.3, 33.7, 36. I'd be more concerned about his durability as he ages. Regardless, he's probably not in the budget unless we can't resign Bo.

He doesn't deserve Judge money, imo is all. The 2nd half of that contract is what makes me uneasy. Pay Bo and a stud reliever for that AAV he'll get, I'm comfortably in no thanks at that term.

Posted

So Sandlin got outrighted 

Maybe has not accepted a minor league assignment after all?

We probably lose him I guess 

Posted
3 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

So Sandlin got outrighted 

Maybe has not accepted a minor league assignment after all?

We probably lose him I guess 

He'll opt for FA.

 

Posted
34 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

He'll opt for FA.

 

Yeah 

Someone will probably give him a 1 year major league deal

Posted
41 minutes ago, bronson44 said:

Sign Tucker. Empty the farm and trade for Ketel Marte and Joe Ryan. Stack the bullpen so they ain't scoring after 6.The World Series will be easy to make.

Must suck to be Mets fans because they have the one owner who really doesn’t care about the money.  But it just doesn’t work out for them.

Anyway I hope we do whatever Cohen is doing 

Though I think Ketel is fine we need to trade for Judge too.  He could be the pop our team needs.  Good clubhouse guy too, which is more important than a few 10 WAR seasons.

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