Blue Jays (Berrios) vs Reds (Lodolo): 9/2/25, 6:40pm

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, hanton said:

he's a contact/slap hitter

Real reason the FO loves him

[BatFlip]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Berrios had a Stuff+ of 77 coming into tonight’s game. I’m not sure how much longer he can be an ~4 ERA innings eater at this rate without some type of drastic change. 

77?  That’s ugly.

[Spanky__99]

9 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Haha why do you even post.  Your posts are always "dont ever question anything MLB teams do because theyre always right."  

One knee down helps with the single most important aspect of a catcher today in framing, Buck is wrong.

[Spanky__99]

GG and win 1st in the AL... Bieber and the Birds will take the series today... IKF, yikes man!

[SuperFuzzBigMuff]

21 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

GG and win 1st in the AL... Bieber and the Birds will take the series today... IKF, yikes man!

You need a life dude. 

[Spanky__99]

6 hours ago, BatFlip said:

77?  That’s ugly.

Wheels have fallen off since July.

[Spanky__99]

4 minutes ago, SuperFuzzBigMuff said:

You need a life dude. 

[glory]

8 hours ago, BatFlip said:

77?  That’s ugly.

It’s actually amazing that he’s even been as effective as he has been. Location+ is still above average but no chance he gets away with that much of a stuff drop for much longer if it holds. Maybe he’s hurt, who knows. At this point I’d strongly consider Yesavage as a 5th starter rather than a reliever in September.

[Laika]

Not sure I have ever seen a 77 Stuff+

I think there must be a measurement mistake?

His velo is down 1.1 and 1.4 and 1.9 mph on his fastballs and cutter

Down 0.7 in his slurve and up 0.4 on his changeup.

This is all bad news but 94 stuff+ to 77 stuff+ kind of bad news???

He has a 70 Stuff+ since July 1st (11 games) 

Interestingly, SEVEN of the worst EIGHT qualified Stuff+ seasons in recorded history (since 2020) are in 2025. So something has changed with the model this year. 

Berrios' 2025 would be the second worst ever, behind 2025 Zack Littell. Here are the worst 30 qualified SP seasons ever:

 

[max silver]

3 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

One knee down helps with the single most important aspect of a catcher today in framing, Buck is wrong.

The dinosaur's don't understand the reality of catching on a knee. It improves their ability to frame pitches, has actually been shown to reduce the overall number of passed balls/wild pitches, and dramatically lessens the wear and tear on the catcher's knees and hips. This is allowing the best catchers to catch more frequently and may even extend their careers as well. It's win/win/win/win despite what the old school catchers incorrectly believe. 

[Laika]

Three more years of this slop. 

He needs to figure SOMETHING out or else it's going to be pretty ugly. I dunno what that is. New training methos in the offseason to get some velo back? New armslot? New pitches? 

At least he continues to have plus command. Perhaps he can continue to provide some value as a guy who is in and out of the rotation, like Nick Martinez.

[BB17]

They need to just IL him at least for now although he may be super against it since he hasn't gone on the IL his entire career?. Gotta get an extra roster spot since his spot in the rotation will be skipped anyways.

Maybe have him go to Dunedin and try to figure out what the issues are.

 

[max silver]

12 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Ya I think its fine in most cases but not when you just had a passed ball and have a runner at 3B. 

Anyways, I think its fine to have different viewpoints on this as there are a lot of factors to consider. 

Buck and the other old school catchers are simply out of touch with what the modern data has to say about catching on a single knee. The article I'm sharing should be required for every single ex catcher that's been harping away constantly about how bad catching on a knee is as it's been definitively shown that catching on a single knee is actually far more effective.

https://www.mlb.com/news/explaining-the-one-knee-down-catching-stance

It's not even a case where the catchers should be altering their stance with a runner on third either despite what the dinosaurs are trying to tell you.

Quote

The numbers make it clear enough why it’s happening. Passed balls and wild pitches per game in 2025 are exactly what they were in 1960, and are at their lowest rate since 1981. There’s no appreciable difference in the share coming with a runner on third – i.e., the most important blocking situations – either. There’s no reason to think that pitchers, fearful of one-kneed catchers being less likely to block breaking balls in the dirt, are choosing to throw less of them. If anything, they’re throwing more.

 

[glory]

40 minutes ago, BB17 said:

They need to just IL him at least for now although he may be super against it since he hasn't gone on the IL his entire career?. Gotta get an extra roster spot since his spot in the rotation will be skipped anyways.

Maybe have him go to Dunedin and try to figure out what the issues are.

 

Berrios has escalators in his contract based on innings pitched, so I don't see him voluntarily going on the IL. I really don't know what the solution is here. He has 3/66 left on his deal at a minimum, and it could go up to 3/68 if he throws 150 innings in 2026. The Jays have to figure out a way to fix him somehow,.

[Terminator]

Maybe

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Not sure I have ever seen a 77 Stuff+

I think there must be a measurement mistake?

His velo is down 1.1 and 1.4 and 1.9 mph on his fastballs and cutter

Down 0.7 in his slurve and up 0.4 on his changeup.

This is all bad news but 94 stuff+ to 77 stuff+ kind of bad news???

He has a 70 Stuff+ since July 1st (11 games) 

Interestingly, SEVEN of the worst EIGHT qualified Stuff+ seasons in recorded history (since 2020) are in 2025. So something has changed with the model this year. 

Berrios' 2025 would be the second worst ever, behind 2025 Zack Littell. Here are the worst 30 qualified SP seasons ever:

His Changeup gets a 63 Stuff+! 

But it's his most effective pitch so I dove into the cross tabs and the Location+ on his changeup is 124 lol

He has a Location+ of 100 or better on all 5 of his pitches.

It's pretty remarkable that he's been able to put up the season he has with arguably the worst stuff in baseball history.

If he were white we would be talking about how crafty he is.

 

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Three more years of this slop. 

He needs to figure SOMETHING out or else it's going to be pretty ugly. I dunno what that is. New training methos in the offseason to get some velo back? New armslot? New pitches? 

At least he continues to have plus command. Perhaps he can continue to provide some value as a guy who is in and out of the rotation, like Nick Martinez.

I think trying to get another mph of velo back in the offseason would be a good goal. If he can do that and keep locating he should be okay as a backend SP.

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

Buck and the other old school catchers are simply out of touch with what the modern data has to say about catching on a single knee. The article I'm sharing should be required for every single ex catcher that's been harping away constantly about how bad catching on a knee is as it's been definitively shown that catching on a single knee is actually far more effective.

https://www.mlb.com/news/explaining-the-one-knee-down-catching-stance

It's not even a case where the catchers should be altering their stance with a runner on third either despite what the dinosaurs are trying to tell you.

But Buck was a catcher 4 decades ago!

[Nexii]

It's interesting that so many pitchers with bad Stuff+ have good Location+

[Laika]

Well, if they didn't then there is no way them become qualified MLB SP in any given season! 

[Omar]

Berrios has to get back in the lab and get a complete Trackman workup in the off season.  I'm sure the Jays will be all over this but teams seem to be quite secretive about the results, perhaps to avoid devaluation of their assets. He may have to look at developing a new grip? Usually as pitchers age and their spin rates go down it is related to their spin axis which can have dramatic effects on movement thereby their Stuff. 100% this is the issue with Berrios. The Jays likely already know all this but it won't get fixed in-season. 

 

[Omar]

13 minutes ago, Omar said:

Berrios has to get back in the lab and get a complete Trackman workup in the off season.  I'm sure the Jays will be all over this but teams seem to be quite secretive about the results, perhaps to avoid devaluation of their assets. He may have to look at developing a new grip? Usually as pitchers age and their spin rates go down it is related to their spin axis which can have dramatic effects on movement thereby their Stuff. 100% this is the issue with Berrios. The Jays likely already know all this but it won't get fixed in-season. 

 

If you're into this stuff take a look at this video.  When he talks about "measured tilt" that related to spin axis which is where Berrios Stuff is collapsing before our eyes.

 

 

 

[Orgfiller]

2 hours ago, Nexii said:

It's interesting that so many pitchers with bad Stuff+ have good Location+

You simply couldn't be an MLB pitcher with both bad stuff and poor location/command/control. It's kind of how the inverse to this scenario is true, if you sort by worst Location+, you'll notice it's mostly a list of good Stuff+ guys.

If you're to survive at least on the brink of a roster spot, you either need good enough stuff, or good enough location, or obviously both if you're to be a mainstay. Anyone who is bad at both would not get an extended look.

[sliderguy35]

2 hours ago, Omar said:

Berrios has to get back in the lab and get a complete Trackman workup in the off season.  I'm sure the Jays will be all over this but teams seem to be quite secretive about the results, perhaps to avoid devaluation of their assets. He may have to look at developing a new grip? Usually as pitchers age and their spin rates go down it is related to their spin axis which can have dramatic effects on movement thereby their Stuff. 100% this is the issue with Berrios. The Jays likely already know all this but it won't get fixed in-season. 

spin goes down because velo goes down and the 2 are directly correlated. 

the problem with berrios is that he's considered a "pronator" aka he throws his fastballs with 95+% spin efficiency. being a pronator is good for getting carry on 4 seamers and arm-side run on changeups but limits your potential overall mix because it makes it hard to throw breaking balls with velocity or pitches that utilize seam shifted wake (aka sinkers / cutters with late movement). his sinker right now especially is pretty awful, it gets basically no spin axis deviation to keep it off of barrels & just isn't an effective groundball pitch anymore.

personally, I think you could see a lot of improvement with a pretty simple mix change. I would lean more into breaking ball & cutter usage & use the sinker as more of a change of pace option rather than the primary pitch. bad sinkers are still decent against righties when used sparingly.

something like breaking ball 30% / cutter 20% / sinker 10-15% / 4-seam 20% / changeup 15-20% would probably help him to stay off barrels & be a bit more in-line with what we're seeing from smarter pitching dev orgs.

 

[Omar]

28 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

 

something like breaking ball 30% / cutter 20% / sinker 10-15% / 4-seam 20% / changeup 15-20% would probably help him to stay off barrels & be a bit more in-line with what we're seeing from smarter pitching dev orgs.

 

I don't know about that.  His current cutter is only used about 6% of the time because it isn't a good pitch. If you go to his movement profiles it is very flat compared to his other pitches.  The Jays are probably telling him not to use it. 

Ps. Are you implying that the Jays are not one of the smarter pitching dev orgs?😜

[sliderguy35]

13 minutes ago, Omar said:

I don't know about that.  His current cutter is only used about 6% of the time because it isn't a good pitch. If you go to his movement profiles it is very flat compared to his pitches.  The Jays are probably telling him not to use it. 

Ps. Are you implying that the Jays are not one of the smarter pitching dev orgs?😜

i'd say he doesn't use it more because it's relatively new for him compared to the rest of his mix. he went from 3% last year to 6% this year, so they're definitely not telling him to not use it. if you look at the splits of berrios throwing it when he's behind in the count in 2025, it's been his best pitch this year (albiet INCREDIBLY small sample).

i'm less concerned about the raw movement profile of his cutter since they naturally stay off barrels & are a complement to the entire mix. nathan eovaldi's cutter is practically the same shape / velo wise and it's been one of the most effective pitches in baseball by a run value perspective. merrill kelly's cutter is actually WORSE from a shape perspective and it's also been incredibly effective at generating weak contact.

it also acts as a bridge between his current fastballs and his sweepier breaking ball which will probably help it play up as well.

[Terminator]

53 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

something like breaking ball 30% / cutter 20% / sinker 10-15% / 4-seam 20% / changeup 15-20% would probably help him to stay off barrels & be a bit more in-line with what we're seeing from smarter pitching dev orgs.

 

And if he really can locate as well as his Location+ says he can, then he should be able to control this arsenal and become a true kitchen sink type.

[Brownie19]

sliderguy35 - you need a job?  I think Pete Walker needs you.  Thank you for joining this board - your contributions are appreciated!

[Omar]

Well let's see if Berrios can evolve. It's been done before.  If not it's going to be tough next three years. 

[jaysthebest]

Vladdy!!

[max silver]

4 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

sliderguy35 - you need a job?  I think Pete Walker needs you.  Thank you for joining this board - your contributions are appreciated!

This dude very quickly became the board's foremost pitching guru.  You can easily tell he understands pitching on a much higher level than even the most pitching savvy board members.