Blue Jays (Berrios) vs Rockies (Molina): 8/5/25, 8:40pm

[Laika]

Varland looked pretty elite last night after he found his release point. 

[Laika]

Following the 2017 to 2019 rebuild, Shatkins Blue Jays will have either made the playoffs or won 90+ games in every season other than 2024. 

Pretty good!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And everyone still cries. 

[BB17]

6 minutes ago, Laika said:

Following the 2017 to 2019 rebuild, Shatkins Blue Jays will have either made the playoffs or won 90+ games in every season other than 2024. 

Pretty good!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And everyone still cries. 

To be fair they’ve basically run a top 10 payroll from 21 till now as well so playoffs should be the expectation with a 200+ payroll and expanded postseason.

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, BB17 said:

To be fair they’ve basically run a top 10 payroll from 21 till now as well so playoffs should be the expectation with a 200+ payroll and expanded postseason.

To be fair - here are the actual rankings.  It's an average around 10th.

2020 - 19th

2021 - 12th

2022 - 11th

2023 - 9th

2024 - 9th

2025 - 5th

The criticism has always been based around playoff wins.  Some believe they are a major factor in the success of the team and the FO, while others believe the playoffs are a crapshoot / coin flip (which the statistics suggest is correct).  If we won a few playoff series along the way, the FO would have a lot more support.

Personally, making the playoffs and/or having 90+ wins in 5 of the past 6 seasons exceeds my expectations from the organization, but we've been through this a few million times.

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, Masterbather said:

Really because I keep hearing the reason they couldn't go after even better talent at the deadline was they don't have the depth of assets to do it unless they wanted to strip themselves bare.

Also, who are the best homegrown players developed under the current administration? If I'm another team I don't know how much I trust the talent coming out of this organization.

Where did you hear this?  I don't remember hearing Ross say that in his interview.  Listening to the media?

[Terminator]

The idea that we didn’t get good talent at the deadline is mostly based on Bieber’s delayed debut and fans only judging what’s immediately visible.

[Laika]

Jays acquired the best SP moved at the deadline AND perhaps the most "valuable" RP moved at the deadline AND Sir Anthony Doh Mingoose AND Tyler France. 

c'mon. 

[glory]

2 hours ago, Masterbather said:

Really because I keep hearing the reason they couldn't go after even better talent at the deadline was they don't have the depth of assets to do it unless they wanted to strip themselves bare.

Also, who are the best homegrown players developed under the current administration? If I'm another team I don't know how much I trust the talent coming out of this organization.

The only area where the Jays had expendable prospect depth with value was on the pitching side, so that's what they used in trades (Rojas, JWB, Stephen). I'm not sure trading their best prospects for a reliever (which was really the only position they could have done that for in this past deadline) was a logical move to make. They got likely the highest upside SP in the market, and while we can debate the Varland trade, he's a RP with a 1 WAR (and climbing) with lots of team control. 

The system is clearly improved from where it was a year ago. Maybe that means it's closer to middle of the package rather than bottom 5-10, but that's still a significant bump in a year where the big league team has a chance to win the division. I don't think it would have been wise to torpedo that momentum for one season when you could argue they increased the team's 2025 ceiling with the moves they actually did make. 

I have no clue if this is a sustainable run or whether 2025 is the best shot they'll have in a while. it's baseball you just never know sometimes, but this wasn't a "Whit Merrfield and Anthony Bass" deadline. Bieber if he's right could start Game 1 of a playoff series, and they added significant velocity and talent to the back end of their bullpen. The one area they didn't do enough was the offense, but if Ty France is Ty DeJong just occupying space until others are healthy, then they may have felt they are fine there as is (we will see if that ends up looking smart or not).

[Orgfiller]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Following the 2017 to 2019 rebuild, Shatkins Blue Jays will have either made the playoffs or won 90+ games in every season other than 2024. 

Pretty good!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And everyone still cries. 

Franchise highest win totals since '92-93:

2015 - 93
2022 - 92
2021 - 91
2023 / 2016 - 89
1998 - 88
2006 - 87

Projected win totals in 2025: 92.

Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro will have overseen 3 and a potential 4 out of the best years the franchise has seen since its best years lol. "Beta Ross" they say, pfft.

[Spanky__99]

Seriously though, what has been a fluke about this team?  13 games above .500 against teams with a <.500 win percentage isn't a fluke, an above .500 record against the AL and NL thus far this season, respectively. The comment reeks of nonsense.

[metafour]

3 hours ago, Masterbather said:

I'm not going to glaze over things that are still true. There is a fluky aspect to this season, and we're extremely thin at the upper levels of our organization.

The upper levels of the system are absolutely not "extremely thin". This is pure nonsense.

In the OF you have Shreck and Pinango posting elite metrics in AAA. Shreck is up to a 146 wRC+ in Buffalo with a .231 ISO. These guys provide legit depth alongside Loperfido. Shreck is actually hitting much better than Loperfido was in AAA. Josh Kasevich has been hurt all season and is back to rehab games now, but he is a near MLB ready SS who should be at least a backup MLB option because he is an above average defender who can make contact. The catcher that we just acquired for Wagner (Brandon Valenzuela) is now up to AAA and has the tools to at least serve as a backup MLB catcher.

You have Manoah and Jake Bloss who are essentially MLB starter depth at this point. Bloss is recovering from TJ surgery, but he will be back next season - he was a borderline Top 100 prospect when we acquired him last season. Tiedemann is also an upper-level arm who is recovering from surgery and should at least become an interesting relief prospect due to his stuff. Adam Macko is up to AAA and is not doing well as a starter, but he has upside as a potential long-man out of the bullpen (this is likely where his future was always headed anyway). You've already seen guys like Lazaro Estrada who have MLB relief upside.

In AA you have OF Victor Arias who isn't even 22 yet and is now up to a 156 wRC+ with elite exit velocities and power upside - this is a Top 10 prospect in our system and a big pop-up guy. Charles McAdoo has reestablished himself after a horrible start and is hitting for a 149 wRC+ since May 27th. You of course have Trey Yesavage blowing through AA, he will be up to AAA next season if not making his MLB debut.

[Masterbather]

14 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Seriously though, what has been a fluke about this team?  13 games above .500 against teams with a <.500 win percentage isn't a fluke, an above .500 record against the AL and NL thus far this season, respectively. The comment reeks of nonsense.

First of all our run differential suggests that our record is a fluke. I remember how people in 2021 would constantly talk about how this team was so much better than the Yankees and Red Sox because of our run differential and now that it's going the other way nobody says boo to a goose.

A 35-year-old George Springer finding a Renaissance season is a fluke. 

Most of our offseason acquisitions have not even been greatly impactful overall. 

Before the season I didn't see you or anybody else acting like this was one of the best teams in Blue Jays history because nobody, absolutely nobody believed that to be true. Most people thought if everything broke our way we could be a wild card team. And the things that we thought would have to break our way just to make that happen haven't even broken our way.

Now we're just going to pretend like this all makes sense?

The only nonsense is anyone that's pretending like anything about this season makes any real sense. 

[metafour]

1 minute ago, Masterbather said:

First of all our run differential suggests that our record is a fluke. I remember how people in 2021 would constantly talk about how this team was so much better than the Yankees and Red Sox because of our run differential and now that it's going the other way nobody says boo to a goose.

A 35-year-old George Springer finding a Renaissance season is a fluke. 

Most of our offseason acquisitions have not even been greatly impactful overall. 

Before the season I didn't see you or anybody else acting like this was one of the best teams in Blue Jays history because nobody, absolutely nobody believed that to be true. Most people thought if everything broke our way we could be a wild card team.

Now we're just going to pretend like this all makes sense?

The only nonsense is anyone that's pretending like anything about this season makes any real sense. 

Hey dipshit: MLB baseball is extremely random, hence why the LA Dodgers don't simply win every year despite having "the best team".

Your argument boils down to "yeah well nobody expected them to be this good, so that means they actually aren't that good".

Did anyone predict the Milwaukee Brewers to be this good? Did you have Cal Raleigh hitting at a ~60 HR pace this season on your bingo card LOL? Did you have the Braves as one of the worst teams in baseball?

You are surprised that the Jays are good because of how they looked in 2024/2023, but those were actually seasons wherein almost everything went WRONG for the Jays. A lot of their success this season is simply things turning back around (ex: Kirk and Bichette reverting back to above-average hitters).

I love the George Springer argument because it never seems to be made in reverse: he went from 140 wRC+ to 133 wRC+ in 2021/2022, and then completely collapsed to 103 wRC+ and 94 wRC+ overnight in 2023/2024. So if you believe that a historically elite hitter can just turn into a pumpkin overnight at age 33, why would it be so shocking to see him turn it back around and produce another great season at age 35? This isn't a random scrub player, it is a former All-Star who was always a great hitter. Its not even remotely inconceivable that he can still be a great hitter at his age, as plenty of previous players have already shown that it is is possible. For example, Justin Turner was a 138 wRC+ hitter at 35 for the Dodgers.

So you have no problem believing that Springer out of nowhere can't hit at all. But its a complete fluke that he managed to find his swing again? 

[Masterbather]

12 minutes ago, metafour said:

The upper levels of the system are absolutely not "extremely thin". This is pure nonsense.

In the OF you have Shreck and Pinango posting elite metrics in AAA. Shreck is up to a 146 wRC+ in Buffalo with a .231 ISO. These guys provide legit depth alongside Loperfido. Shreck is actually hitting much better than Loperfido was in AAA. Josh Kasevich has been hurt all season and is back to rehab games now, but he is a near MLB ready SS who should be at least a backup MLB option because he is an above average defender who can make contact. The catcher that we just acquired for Wagner (Brandon Valenzuela) is now up to AAA and has the tools to at least serve as a backup MLB catcher.

You have Manoah and Jake Bloss who are essentially MLB starter depth at this point. Bloss is recovering from TJ surgery, but he will be back next season - he was a borderline Top 100 prospect when we acquired him last season. Tiedemann is also an upper-level arm who is recovering from surgery and should at least become an interesting relief prospect due to his stuff. Adam Macko is up to AAA and is not doing well as a starter, but he has upside as a potential long-man out of the bullpen (this is likely where his future was always headed anyway). You've already seen guys like Lazaro Estrada who have MLB relief upside.

In AA you have OF Victor Arias who isn't even 22 yet and is now up to a 156 wRC+ with elite exit velocities and power upside - this is a Top 10 prospect in our system and a big pop-up guy. Charles McAdoo has reestablished himself after a horrible start and is hitting for a 149 wRC+ since May 27th. You of course have Trey Yesavage blowing through AA, he will be up to AAA next season if not making his MLB debut.

We don't have a highly ranked farm system congratulations that you can name a few names.

[Spanky__99]

A WC team sure, pythagorean W-L has us a little on the luck side but it's not the be all end all, 115 games into the season and calling it a fluke is nonsense, our platoon bats have had good years and we've had a deadcat bounce back out of Springer from the adjustments he made to sell for more power, it's been great to see the guys that the Jays have also always wanted all along to bat to their expected numbers like Kirk/Bo along with Springer and this is without a healthy Santander etc... funny thing DR. Baiter is you're wrong virtually every season when you've claimed for months at a time that we weren't going to be a playoff contender. Whatever floats your boat, Eeyore... the black cloud follows you everywhere, nauseating.  Also, nice Straw man you got going there.

[Masterbather]

1 minute ago, metafour said:

Hey dipshit: MLB baseball is extremely random, hence why the LA Dodgers don't simply win every year despite having "the best team".

Your argument boils down to "yeah well nobody expected them to be this good, so that means they actually aren't that good".

Did anyone predict the Milwaukee Brewers to be this good? Did you have Cal Raleigh hitting at a ~60 HR pace this season on your bingo card LOL? Did you have the Braves as one of the worst teams in baseball?

You are surprised that the Jays are good because of how they looked in 2024/2023, but those were actually seasons wherein almost everything went WRONG for the Jays. A lot of their success this season is simply things turning back around (ex: Kirk and Bichette reverting back to above-average hitters).

I love the George Springer argument because it never seems to be made in reverse: he went from 140 wRC+ to 133 wRC+ in 2021/2022, and then completely collapsed to 103 wRC+ and 94 wRC+ overnight in 2023/2024. So if you believe that a historically elite hitter can just turn into a pumpkin overnight at age 33, why would it be so shocking to see him turn it back around and produce another great season at age 35? This isn't a random scrub player, it is a former All-Star who was always a great hitter. Its not even remotely inconceivable that he can still be a great hitter at his age, as plenty of previous players have already shown that it is is possible. For example, Justin Turner was a 138 wRC+ hitter at 35 for the Dodgers.

So you have no problem believing that Springer out of nowhere can't hit at all. But its a complete fluke that he managed to find his swing again? 

Resorting to name calling because you don't like someone's opinion, you're a f***ing clown. 

I'll play along anyhow. Since most of your verbal diarrhea was based on George Springer, yes it's completely unreasonable in today's game to expect a 35 year old to have a Renaissance. That's a self-evident truth. 

You didn't really touch on run differential but that is one of the aspects pointing to a fluke season.

You also failed to mention how many things have gone wrong this year. Tons of things have not broken our way and we're still sitting here as the best team in the American League record wise. So to simply say things went wrong before and they're going right now it's still not telling the story.

Congratulations on making the point that surprises happen every year.

[Spanky__99]

6 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

We don't have a highly ranked farm system congratulations that you can name a few names.

In BA's podcast about the Jays mid season system grading discussion they had them in the top 10, not quite 5 yet were their exact words. Obviously after the deadline it'll fall back to a middle range system, they're certainly not thin, lmao.

[Masterbather]

4 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

A WC team sure, pythagorean W-L has us a little on the luck side but it's not the be all end all, 115 games into the season and calling it a fluke is nonsense, our platoon bats have had good years and we've had a deadcat bounce back out of Springer from the adjustments he made to sell for more power, it's been great to see the guys that the Jays have also always wanted all along to bat to their expected numbers like Kirk/Bo along with Springer and this is without a healthy Santander etc... funny thing DR. Baiter is you're wrong virtually every season when you've claimed for months at a time that we weren't going to be a playoff contender. Whatever floats your boat, Eeyore... the black cloud follows you everywhere, nauseating.  Also, nice Straw man you got going there.

What black cloud? I'm a very happy person in my life probably more than you are. 

I've been wrong every season? I'm sorry show me the World Series we won. 

Hell just show me a single playoff series we won.

In a league where 12 out of 30 teams make the postseason. When you have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and you haven't even won a playoff game, that's failure. Maybe not to you but it is to me.

 

[Spanky__99]

5 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

What black cloud? I'm a very happy person in my life probably more than you are. 

I've been wrong every season? I'm sorry show me the World Series we won. 

Hell just show me a single playoff series we won.

In a league where 12 out of 30 teams make the postseason. When you have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and you haven't even won a playoff game, that's failure. Maybe not to you but it is to me.

 

*Show me the WS* is a Strawman argument, why didn't you touch on our team's record against teams over .500? Fluke...??? You're cherry picking s*** just as you accused metafour of doing, lol.

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Jays acquired the best SP moved at the deadline AND perhaps the most "valuable" RP moved at the deadline AND Sir Anthony Doh Mingoose AND Tyler France. 

c'mon. 

I graded our deadline a B, solid job by Ross.

[Spanky__99]

15 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Yeah 

That's a tough stretch 

We've beaten 2 of them this season already, and the Dodgers are scuffling a bit.

[Masterbather]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

*Show me the WS* is a Strawman argument, why didn't you touch on our team's record against teams over .500? Fluke...??? You're cherry picking s*** just as you accused metafour of doing, lol.

What does that have to do anything? That's part of the story of a team that is overachieved, Fortune has smiled upon this team this season. 

[Masterbather]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

I graded our deadline a B, solid job by Ross.

I actually graded it a B+ personally given what we had to work with and the market. I actually love the Bieber acquisition even if it doesn't work out. 

 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Masterbather said:

What does that have to do anything? That's part of the story of a team that is overachieved, Fortune has smiled upon this team this season. 

You must have been living under a rock this season if you don't think this team has faced a pile of adversity and has only enjoyed good fortune. This team has overcome the following on their way to an AL best record:

- Giminez missing most of the season due to various injuries

- Varsho missing most of the season due to various injuries

- All of Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Clement and Santander getting off to poor starts with the bat

- Santander getting off to a horrible start and then blowing out his shoulder

- Francis turning into a turd and Scherzer missing most of the first half

- Swanson and Green turning into pumpkins, Garcia and Sandlin missing huge chunks of time due to injury

It's been a huge testament to the organizational depth that this team has continued rolling along despite missing so many key regulars throughout the season. In fact the team hasn't been at full strength at any point of the regular season.

[metafour]

1 hour ago, Masterbather said:

What does that have to do anything? That's part of the story of a team that is overachieved, Fortune has smiled upon this team this season. 

LMAO look at this guy.

Yeah bud, the team has been super fortunate! 3 of the 4 big offseason moves (Santander, Gimenez, Scherzer) all got injured and missed significant time. Varsho came out extremely hot and then got injured and missed most of the season. Kirk, Vlad, Bo all hit like crap for the first month, as did Barger and Schneider. Jeff Hoffman has better K and BB rates than he did last season and a lower BABIP, but he's running a 4.56 ERA because his HR/9 randomly spiked to almost 2.0 out of nowhere (considerably worse than any of his 4 previous seasons).

The only real "luck" has been Eric Lauer pitching above expectations. Springer's resurgence is a surprise, but again: this is a former star player who's "demise" happened much faster than anyone ever would have predicted. His season this year is simply counter-balance as far as I'm concerned.

[John_Havok]

By no means am I trying to defend Masterbather, but I think there is merit, to a point, about the Jays experiencing some really good fortune. The "luck" aspect of the team is that literally everything that needed to happen for the Jays to be at this point ... has happened. 

All of the guys who needed to return to normal or better after down seasons....did. All the callups have basically delivered at the upper end of their percentile outcomes. SP has been largely healthy and when they did get hurt, the guys brought in exceeded expectations. All the starting position players that have been hurt... Varsho, Gimenez, Santander... none of their absences have hurt the team due to the depth guys stepping up an delivering. Think of all the nobody pen arms they cycled through early on to keep things going. Even those 2 brilliant starts from Easton Lucas (evened out by his following 2 turds... for sure). Little coming out of virtually nowhere to be utterly dominant in the pen. 

In isolation, none of these things on their own is overly "lucky". One could reasonably predict Kirk and Bo rebounding .... Springer, maybe not to the point he has, but somewhat. One could predict at least somewhat of a Schneider bounceback, but again, not to the level he is at right now. Would anyone have predicted Loperfido running as hot as he has? Nobody could have predicted Lauer being what he has been. Same for Fisher honestly. 

I think the contention that ALL of these happening at the same time is the fortunate part, not that any individual piece of the luck pie is or isnt probable. 

 

[Brownie19]

I think as fans we've been accustom to absolutely nothing going right over the past 2 years.  Now on an average year, it just appears that we're getting super lucky.  

I think the needle is on the on the right side this year, but it's not some magically lucky season.

[John_Havok]

42 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I think as fans we've been accustom to absolutely nothing going right over the past 2 years.  Now on an average year, it just appears that we're getting super lucky.  

I think the needle is on the on the right side this year, but it's not some magically lucky season.

It's the other side of the coin really. 

If one is of the opinion that the Jays are extremely "lucky" this season, one would also have to admit the previous season was especially "unlucky" 

All of the outcomes from players on the roster last season were within the realm of possibility. However, many of the lower percentile outcomes ended up happening at the same time. This year, its really the opposite. Does that mean we should have expected every lower percentile outcome that happened last year to suddenly turn into like the 80th+ percentile outcome this year? Nope. But, it was within the realm of possibility. 

Like, of all the things that I would laughed at the most and thought "not a f***ing chance" of that happening would be Heineman doing what hes been doing. I would've bought the defensive side for sure...but not the offense.

Like, if you could explain the Jays 2025 season thus far and had to point at a specific player as a representation of the team as a whole.... it would be Heineman.

[metafour]

On 8/6/2025 at 6:32 PM, John_Havok said:

By no means am I trying to defend Masterbather, but I think there is merit, to a point, about the Jays experiencing some really good fortune. The "luck" aspect of the team is that literally everything that needed to happen for the Jays to be at this point ... has happened. 

All of the guys who needed to return to normal or better after down seasons....did. All the callups have basically delivered at the upper end of their percentile outcomes. SP has been largely healthy and when they did get hurt, the guys brought in exceeded expectations. All the starting position players that have been hurt... Varsho, Gimenez, Santander... none of their absences have hurt the team due to the depth guys stepping up an delivering. Think of all the nobody pen arms they cycled through early on to keep things going. Even those 2 brilliant starts from Easton Lucas (evened out by his following 2 turds... for sure). Little coming out of virtually nowhere to be utterly dominant in the pen. 

In isolation, none of these things on their own is overly "lucky". One could reasonably predict Kirk and Bo rebounding .... Springer, maybe not to the point he has, but somewhat. One could predict at least somewhat of a Schneider bounceback, but again, not to the level he is at right now. Would anyone have predicted Loperfido running as hot as he has? Nobody could have predicted Lauer being what he has been. Same for Fisher honestly. 

I think the contention that ALL of these happening at the same time is the fortunate part, not that any individual piece of the luck pie is or isnt probable. 

 

All of those things would seem to be incredibly lucky if one were of the opinion that our front office is incredibly mid. Which is the opinion held by most Jays fans, who are by and large not very smart.

Of course, the other possibility is the we actually have a good front office, and they had quietly been building depth, and made a few correct calls and changes to their process following last season which have paid off. None of this should really be surprising because I told you all years ago that Cleveland was very good at churning out random no-name players to their MLB roster, this was during the time when the general consensus was that Shapiro was brought in to "penny pinch for Rogers" lol (great call from the Toronto wiz-kid experts btw, totally nailed that one).

Everything that you just listed are things that no one here would bat an eye about as being "lucky" if it were the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, or any other number of teams. But because its the Jays and "Shatkins", its inconceivable that they might actually know what they are doing. Even though they have fielded one of the higher winning percentages in the AL since ~2020, the fan opinion from moronic armchair experts is that we have a terrible front office....because they lost a few play-in Wild Card series.

When the Braves won it all unexpectedly in 2021, it was deemed rightful because of course AA is a genius! Never mind the fact that 37 year old Charlie Morton was a 4.5 fWAR starter out of nowhere that year, Austin Riley went from two 0 fWAR seasons to a 5.1 fWAR season, they traded for Soler who was -1.2 fWAR with the Royals and then put up 1.2 fWAR with the Braves in just 55 games, Huascar Ynoa went from crap to passable starter, etc., etc.

And this is really the most annoying angle to all of this: if another team is good, it is because it is somehow deserved. But if the Jays are good, well that is obviously just a fluke. You brought up Loperfido having a small-sample streak of performance which is obviously going to normalize. Is that "lucky"? Sure, to some degree...but we just saw Warming Bernabel in Colorado who has a 185 wRC+ in ~30 fewer plate appearances than Loperfido. So even the Rockies who have an insanely horrible front office can churn out a lucky small-sample stud. But lets go even further with Loperfido: he was one of 3 outfielders who they called up amidst Santander/Varsho being injured. Roden came up and was crap, and Clase came up and was crap. So 1 out of 3 guys have had small-sample success. Does it still look like some crazy good luck if they are batting 33% on the minor league OF callups this season? Most of their random minor league "where did this guy come from" success stories boil down to a numbers game...ie: they have amassed actual depth, and a few guys have popped from that group. Its not the front offices' fault that the majority of Jays fans are sad ****s and weren't aware that we actually had some promising players.

[Spanky__99]

lol... love it, PIST!!!