2025 Trade Deadline

[jmomcc]

Looking at the rental reliever market, there is decent depth there. I think you could grab a long relief, and then a couple of 7th inning types like sewald and have a better pen. 
 

Also, looking at the starting pitching... unless you are getting joe ryan or degrom, there are a lot of guys that aren't that great. Like more third playoff starter judged by their stuff numbers and underlying stuff. Like Lugo for example. I'd prefer scherzer and gausman start playoff games over him. 
 

Would there be anything to paying a steepish price for someone like griffin jax who has nasty stuff. Then have him, hoffman, and garcia for leverage. Then guys like sewald, little, fisher, rodriquez down a rung, then long relief (i like milner from texas). 

Then, you can run openers in front of berrios and maybe bauer? And also sign one back end starter. Basically make the deadline priority a drastically better pen. 

The dodgers also have pitching injured. If they have guys coming back, you could grab one of their young guys with options. That would be expensive. 

One reliever with options and nasty stuff is Holderman. Nasty stuff but bad control. Stick him in triple A and work on it and see if he can help when rosters expand. 
 

An interesting guy for next year is dustin may. His stuff numbers have completely fallen off in his walk year. But, i'd do a speculative free agent signing on him. 
 

My favourite for starting pitching at the deadline is still severino. I'm kind of unsure we would want that contract maybe. 

[Ray]

Is Sonny Gray on the market? I know the Cardinals are doing surprisingly well this year, are in the wildcard race but I could see them trying to do what the Tigers did last year. Sell older/expiring contracts to reload for when they are really competitive next year

[jmomcc]

18 minutes ago, Ray said:

Is Sonny Gray on the market? I know the Cardinals are doing surprisingly well this year, are in the wildcard race but I could see them trying to do what the Tigers did last year. Sell older/expiring contracts to reload for when they are really competitive next year

Hems under contract year for 35m payroll/25m luxury tax. Then club option in 2027. 

[John_Havok]

5 hours ago, jmomcc said:

Looking at the rental reliever market, there is decent depth there. I think you could grab a long relief, and then a couple of 7th inning types like sewald and have a better pen. 
 

Also, looking at the starting pitching... unless you are getting joe ryan or degrom, there are a lot of guys that aren't that great. Like more third playoff starter judged by their stuff numbers and underlying stuff. Like Lugo for example. I'd prefer scherzer and gausman start playoff games over him. 
 

Would there be anything to paying a steepish price for someone like griffin jax who has nasty stuff. Then have him, hoffman, and garcia for leverage. Then guys like sewald, little, fisher, rodriquez down a rung, then long relief (i like milner from texas). 

Then, you can run openers in front of berrios and maybe bauer? And also sign one back end starter. Basically make the deadline priority a drastically better pen. 

The dodgers also have pitching injured. If they have guys coming back, you could grab one of their young guys with options. That would be expensive. 

One reliever with options and nasty stuff is Holderman. Nasty stuff but bad control. Stick him in triple A and work on it and see if he can help when rosters expand. 
 

An interesting guy for next year is dustin may. His stuff numbers have completely fallen off in his walk year. But, i'd do a speculative free agent signing on him. 
 

My favourite for starting pitching at the deadline is still severino. I'm kind of unsure we would want that contract maybe. 

Here's the thing with acquiring SP at this deadline for the Jays. They have to be better than everyone else that's already in the rotation or there's no point in acquiring them since the only spot in the rotation that could be freed right now is Lauer by shifting him to the pen, and he's been their most consistent starter over the past however many weeks. 

The only real question right now for acquiring SP at this deadline for the Jays is ... is rotation with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Scherzer and "new guy" guaranteed to be better then the one those same 4 with Lauer?

The only way that answer is yes, is if the new guy is a clear top end #1 or #2 who will get you 6 innings without question 9 starts out of 10. 

I suppose there's a non-zero chance that someone in that top 4 gets traded, but I really doubt Atkins is in any kind of rush to mess with the chemistry in the clubhouse right now unless the return is such a no-brainer that it just has to be done. He wants to add for sure, but i doubt he subtracts from the active SP staff to do so. 

[glory]

37 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Here's the thing with acquiring SP at this deadline for the Jays. They have to be better than everyone else that's already in the rotation or there's no point in acquiring them since the only spot in the rotation that could be freed right now is Lauer by shifting him to the pen, and he's been their most consistent starter over the past however many weeks. 

The only real question right now for acquiring SP at this deadline for the Jays is ... is rotation with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Scherzer and "new guy" guaranteed to be better then the one those same 4 with Lauer?

The only way that answer is yes, is if the new guy is a clear top end #1 or #2 who will get you 6 innings without question 9 starts out of 10. 

I suppose there's a non-zero chance that someone in that top 4 gets traded, but I really doubt Atkins is in any kind of rush to mess with the chemistry in the clubhouse right now unless the return is such a no-brainer that it just has to be done. He wants to add for sure, but i doubt he subtracts from the active SP staff to do so. 

The issue is the Jays are one Scherzer thumb explosion away from having a very messy rotation situation, especially if/when Lauer comes back down to earth. I want no part of counting on Manoah to help out (if he does, then it's gravy). So while I agree the Jays need to add someone better than their existing SP's, I think they may need to add a SP period at this point. The best one they can realistically get. 

I don't think Ryan will be traded, and Cabrera left his last start with elbow discomfort (plus he has no history of durability which Atkins generally likes), so to me it comes down to Sandy or Keller. If they just want a rental to eat up innings, then their options grow a bit.

If the Jays go into the final two months hoping for Scherzer to stay healthy, Lauer to remain this good, and Manoah being good enough to fill in the cracks, then that's a massive ask, IMO. Could happen but not something I'd want to bank on. 

[Spanky__99]

Copy pasta in the correct thread here, I guess... I'd be all over Keller like flies to s***, he's being undervalued here on this forum I've noticed.

deGrom
Bubic
Ryan
Cabrera
Eovaldi
Keller
Kelly
Kikuchi
Wacha
Soriano

Are names they'll be looking at for sure if available, and then there's the next tier of guys like Severino, Alcantara etc after that... add a leverage reliever(tons of RP available no doubt) and the Jays would look alright going into the stretch run after the deadline. Just bolster the pitching first and foremost before worrying about another bat. Should be an interesting deadline.

[John_Havok]

30 minutes ago, glory said:

The issue is the Jays are one Scherzer thumb explosion away from having a very messy rotation situation, especially if/when Lauer comes back down to earth. I want no part of counting on Manoah to help out (if he does, then it's gravy). So while I agree the Jays need to add someone better than their existing SP's, I think they may need to add a SP period at this point. The best one they can realistically get. 

I don't think Ryan will be traded, and Cabrera left his last start with elbow discomfort (plus he has no history of durability which Atkins generally likes), so to me it comes down to Sandy or Keller. If they just want a rental to eat up innings, then their options grow a bit.

If the Jays go into the final two months hoping for Scherzer to stay healthy, Lauer to remain this good, and Manoah being good enough to fill in the cracks, then that's a massive ask, IMO. Could happen but not something I'd want to bank on. 

I get what you mean, but what youre basically saying is, the Jays need not improve the rotation, but need to get a SP just in case Scherzer gets hurt (reasonable) ... which pushes Lauer out, and may not even improve the rotation in the mean time. 

I can see the logic there but it still doesn't move the needle that much. It doesnt solve the top of the rotation problem, which is the bigger problem to solve for 2025. 

Adding to the top also provides the exact same insurance against an injury to Scherzer while actually making the rotation better.

The problem is, as of now there's isnt a top of the rotation guy out there to be had that we know of.

So...knowing that, is the insurance plan SP the right way to go, or is bolstering the f*** out of the pen the better play? 

Maybe a bit of both?

[jmomcc]

35 minutes ago, glory said:

The issue is the Jays are one Scherzer thumb explosion away from having a very messy rotation situation, especially if/when Lauer comes back down to earth. I want no part of counting on Manoah to help out (if he does, then it's gravy). So while I agree the Jays need to add someone better than their existing SP's, I think they may need to add a SP period at this point. The best one they can realistically get. 

I don't think Ryan will be traded, and Cabrera left his last start with elbow discomfort (plus he has no history of durability which Atkins generally likes), so to me it comes down to Sandy or Keller. If they just want a rental to eat up innings, then their options grow a bit.

If the Jays go into the final two months hoping for Scherzer to stay healthy, Lauer to remain this good, and Manoah being good enough to fill in the cracks, then that's a massive ask, IMO. Could happen but not something I'd want to bank on. 

I think i'd be willing pay a good price for Alcantara. His stuff is still great. Ryan as well. After that, i'd be ok with a medium price for severino. Then, i'd drop way down to the rental back end section. The charlie morton/tyler mahle zone. 
 

As i said before also, someone smarter than me needs to look at the dodgers 40 man situation. There almost has to be a pitcher they would be willing to deal that could be a 6th starter for us. 
 

The bullpen is doable. I think you could really improve the bullpen, and if you can't get a top starter, maybe also get a real deal leverage reliever as well. 

[glory]

26 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

I get what you mean, but what youre basically saying is, the Jays need not improve the rotation, but need to get a SP just in case Scherzer gets hurt (reasonable) ... which pushes Lauer out, and may not even improve the rotation in the mean time. 

I can see the logic there but it still doesn't move the needle that much. It doesnt solve the top of the rotation problem, which is the bigger problem to solve for 2025. 

Adding to the top also provides the exact same insurance against an injury to Scherzer while actually making the rotation better.

The problem is, as of now there's isnt a top of the rotation guy out there to be had that we know of.

So...knowing that, is the insurance plan SP the right way to go, or is bolstering the f*** out of the pen the better play? 

Maybe a bit of both?

Yeah adding a #4-5 starter is boring and won’t move the needle but if they strike out on bigger targets, then it’s still the type of move that the Jays could benefit from. Improving upside is very important but absent of that, increasing your odds of getting in is also a priority, and I don’t want to depend on Manoah or Estrada or whoever to start 5-10 games down the stretch if it comes to that. Maybe go #4-5 SP and elite reliever instead? Wouldn’t be the worse outcome, especially the way Schneider manages. In a playoff setting he’ll be sweating and twitching by the 3rd inning due to lack of a pitching change. 

I think a potential front of the rotation option is by all accounts available, it’s just a matter of if you want to trade a top prospect(s) for a SP with a 7 ERA. Alcantara to me is the target. Maybe he’s more of a 2026-27 move than 2025 but that’s the closest thing there is to a front end SP that is realistically available. 

[jmomcc]

this is a cool video. It shows you basically how to calculate surplus value and then use that to create realistic trade packages. 

[hanton]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

this is a cool video. It shows you basically how to calculate surplus value and then use that to create realistic trade packages. 

Lance puts out some good content, this is really interesting for sure.  Would be good to see some valuations in hindsight,  Kind like an umpire scorecard but for GM's - see how the trades worked out. 

[jmomcc]

26 minutes ago, hanton said:

Lance puts out some good content, this is really interesting for sure.  Would be good to see some valuations in hindsight,  Kind like an umpire scorecard but for GM's - see how the trades worked out. 

The only problem is that we don't know how the front offices value the players. 
 

like the kikuchi trade last year, if you go by how fangraphs rated our return on the astros list, they way way overpaid compared to kikuchi's surplus value. But in reality maybe we had bloss as a 45+ rather than a 50. 
 

If the current fangraphs prospect rankings are correct, we could get alcantara for something like roden, rojas, wagner. That seems light though. 

[hanton]

18 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

The only problem is that we don't know how the front offices value the players. 
 

like the kikuchi trade last year, if you go by how fangraphs rated our return on the astros list, they way way overpaid compared to kikuchi's surplus value. But in reality maybe we had bloss as a 45+ rather than a 50. 
 

If the current fangraphs prospect rankings are correct, we could get alcantara for something like roden, rojas, wagner. That seems light though. 

You come up with a standard then apply that standard to all trades - similar to what Lance just did.  It's not perfect though.

the FV on those players is as of April 1st, no way Roden is a 50 now, no way he's an average regular.

On Kikuchi did u take into account he was a rental?

[jmomcc]

36 minutes ago, hanton said:

You come up with a standard then apply that standard to all trades - similar to what Lance just did.  It's not perfect though.

the FV on those players is as of April 1st, no way Roden is a 50 now, no way he's an average regular.

On Kikuchi did u take into account he was a rental?

Yea but that means he less surplus value so the price should be cheaper, right? 
 

So, yea obviously the astros were more down on bloss than fangraphs. 

[Spanky__99]

2 hours ago, hanton said:

the FV on those players is as of April 1st, no way Roden is a 50 now, no way he's an average regular.

How come... BA says he's fine under the hood and a 50 FV player as of a few days ago, you can't be calling the guy a dud 42 games into his career, man? 

[Spanky__99]

11 hours ago, Ray said:

Is Sonny Gray on the market? I know the Cardinals are doing surprisingly well this year, are in the wildcard race but I could see them trying to do what the Tigers did last year. Sell older/expiring contracts to reload for when they are really competitive next year

I don't think the Cards sell, same with the Reds I bet.

[hanton]

8 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

How come... BA says he's fine under the hood and a 50 FV player as of a few days ago, you can't be calling the guy a dud 42 games into his career, man? 

I don't care much for projections, as of right now he's not an average regular, I was not fan of sending him down - he's nearly 26 and needs to be given a good run of ab's.  Should have promoted him years ago

[Spanky__99]

24 minutes ago, hanton said:

I don't care much for projections, as of right now he's not an average regular, I was not fan of sending him down - he's nearly 26 and needs to be given a good run of ab's.  Should have promoted him years ago

Meh, that doesn't matter, he's in our control for years to come through his prime. Just cause his can of corn didn't work for 42 games doesn't mean he's dropped from a 50 to below average future value, projections are all we have for prospects.

[hanton]

40 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Meh, that doesn't matter, he's in our control for years to come through his prime. Just cause his can of corn didn't work for 42 games doesn't mean he's dropped from a 50 to below average future value, projections are all we have for prospects.

what matters?

[Spanky__99]

2 minutes ago, hanton said:

what matters?

Da fuq? lol

[jmomcc]

Roden as a 50FV left fielder is such an interesting profile. Like, i'd expect a power hitter with that profile. 
 

I've had him in my mental bucket of 'we are trading this dude to the As' for a while. 

[Grant77]

Joey Loperfido is increasing his trade value and/or making it easier to trade Roden. It would be really nice if we could get a good pitcher with one of them as the main return.

[John_Havok]

30 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

Joey Loperfido is increasing his trade value and/or making it easier to trade Roden. It would be really nice if we could get a good pitcher with one of them as the main return.

If the Pirates are listening on Bednar...... sign me up for Roden being the return. I honestly wouldn't think twice about it. 

[glory]

I thought it was interesting that Schneider was playing Clase and others over Roden prior to Roden's most recent demotion. The club may have soured on him a bit. Wouldn't shock me at all if he's moved, especially with Schreck's emergence in AAA.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I wouldn't be so quick to write Roden off.

I remember how sour folks were on Barger last year when he had a 68 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR in 225 PAs

[John_Havok]

28 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

I wouldn't be so quick to write Roden off.

I remember how sour folks were on Barger last year when he had a 68 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR in 225 PAs

Its not that I personally am writing him off, just that his skilkset is somewhat redundant on the Jays right now, others have passed him by, and he could be a piece that helps net the Jays what they need for this season and beyond. 

[saskjayfan]

On 7/17/2025 at 7:08 PM, glory said:

The issue is the Jays are one Scherzer thumb explosion away from having a very messy rotation situation, especially if/when Lauer comes back down to earth. I want no part of counting on Manoah to help out (if he does, then it's gravy). So while I agree the Jays need to add someone better than their existing SP's, I think they may need to add a SP period at this point. The best one they can realistically get. 

I don't think Ryan will be traded, and Cabrera left his last start with elbow discomfort (plus he has no history of durability which Atkins generally likes), so to me it comes down to Sandy or Keller. If they just want a rental to eat up innings, then their options grow a bit.

If the Jays go into the final two months hoping for Scherzer to stay healthy, Lauer to remain this good, and Manoah being good enough to fill in the cracks, then that's a massive ask, IMO. Could happen but not something I'd want to bank on. 

Sometimes you have to roll the dice.  Are you going to spend your prospect capital to bring in a number 2 rental?  Manoah is coming back.  I don't care what happened in one inning in his first rehab.  It's his spring training.  I trust his talent.  

The problem with the entire trade market is there isn't a lot available.  The only big impact bat is Suarez and the competition and cost to get him is going to be ridiculous. 

We definitely need bullpen help, which we should be able to get. 

[Sorrow]

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Jays acquire Keller and Bednar from the Pirates. Keller raises the floor for this season and is under control for the next few seasons when we’re losing a bunch of arms. He also moves someone back to the ‘pen in Lauer as an example which does increase the depth there. Bednar raises the floor and the ceiling.

I feel like we will likely see multiple moves made and I wouldn’t be shocked if we end up with two starting pitchers, two or three relievers and one or two positions players.

I did see an interview yesterday with Whit Merrifield and he agrees the Jays need to make a move but he suggested that the FO should talk to some of the club house leaders and ask what they think they need to do to win and what kind of personality won’t mess with the club house chemistry. Which while something I know we can’t actually track I do believe chemistry does actually exist and have merit.

[Laika]

 

 

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Sorrow said:

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Jays acquire Keller and Bednar from the Pirates. Keller raises the floor for this season and is under control for the next few seasons when we’re losing a bunch of arms. He also moves someone back to the ‘pen in Lauer as an example which does increase the depth there. Bednar raises the floor and the ceiling.

I feel like we will likely see multiple moves made and I wouldn’t be shocked if we end up with two starting pitchers, two or three relievers and one or two positions players.

I did see an interview yesterday with Whit Merrifield and he agrees the Jays need to make a move but he suggested that the FO should talk to some of the club house leaders and ask what they think they need to do to win and what kind of personality won’t mess with the club house chemistry. Which while something I know we can’t actually track I do believe chemistry does actually exist and have merit.

I feel for any SP the Jays trade for. The casuals will all expect him to be the missing piece of a championship team, be the best ace in the history of aces and anything less is "fire atkins"