2025 Trade Deadline

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Degrom would be disgusting to have in a playoff rotation, I just don’t trust his arm to stay healthy at all

I'm not super interested in him on that contract. It's just a total dice roll. 

[Laika]

Bryan Baker traded to TBR for the 37th overall pick (competitive balance picks can be traded). 

I will never understand the stupid rules around the draft. Competitive balance picks are dumb to begin with but why can they be traded and not other picks? 

In any event, this is good for Toronto because it gets the RP market moving and because Bryan Baker can be a gas can + everyone else in the AL East has already seen him a lot. 

[Terminator]

32 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

You would think based off the season he's had thus far, he could easily get $100M over 3 years if he were a FA. Maybe even more on a shorter term deal. 

So $37M AAV for him over the next three seasons isn't that bad. Jays are one the few teams who can take on that kind of salary. 

Other notes:

• 2028 Club Option: $20M (contains no buyout)
  625 Innings Pitched or 1 Top 5 Cy Young: $30M
  725 Innings Pitched or 3 Top 5 Cy Youngs: $37M
• 2028 Becomes a $37M Player Option if:
  160+ IP + Top 5 Cy Young + Healthy in 2027

I wouldn't want to give up much in the way of prospects but if Ed Rogers wants to keep writing checks I'm all for it

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Erik Bedard?

His Stuff+ is way down recently. I heard he was throwing 76. 

Bednar*

[Terminator]

15 hours ago, Angrioter said:

Hector Gomez 

SOURCE: The #BlueJays have interest in Edward Cabrera and Jacob DeGrom if he becomes available

Hector Gomez SZN

[glory]

1 hour ago, Stangstag said:

Keller seems like exactly the type of guy this FO would be after. Can also see Alcantara too, though he’s not pitching very well so far

I’m very curious what Alcantara’s trade value is. He has a 7.22 ERA (4.59 FIP). Velocity is still there, less swing and miss, but stuff+ still good. Feels like he’d be a really good buy low, but Marlins have no reason to sell low unless they want out of his contract. Jays have elite defense so Sandy would definitely benefit from that. I’d rather have him than Keller, as there’s a chance you’re buying a bit lower on a top end starter rather than buying high on a high floor mid rotation option for similar money. 

[Terminator]

33 minutes ago, Laika said:

Bryan Baker traded to TBR for the 37th overall pick (competitive balance picks can be traded). 

I will never understand the stupid rules around the draft. Competitive balance picks are dumb to begin with but why can they be traded and not other picks? 

In any event, this is good for Toronto because it gets the RP market moving and because Bryan Baker can be a gas can + everyone else in the AL East has already seen him a lot. 

Seems like a pretty steep price for a cromulent middle reliever. 

[Terminator]

6 minutes ago, glory said:

I’m very curious what Alcantara’s trade value is. He has a 7.22 ERA (4.59 FIP). Velocity is still there, less swing and miss, but stuff+ still good. Feels like he’d be a really good buy low, but Marlins have no reason to sell low unless they want out of his contract. Jays have elite defense so Sandy would definitely benefit from that. I’d rather have him than Keller, as there’s a chance you’re buying a bit lower on a top end starter rather than buying high on a high floor mid rotation option for similar money. 

It seems like the Marlins could be a good fit in that they are playing a lot better and might be interested in a lot of our AAA guys to fill their holes. 

[Laika]

3 minutes ago, Terminator said:

It seems like the Marlins could be a good fit in that they are playing a lot better and might be interested in a lot of our AAA guys to fill their holes. 

They gobbled up Norby and Stowers last year who were similar guys. On the cusp but no room. And it worked with Stowers. So yeah maybe they think they are smart and can fix Orelvis.

[BatFlip]

12 minutes ago, glory said:

I’m very curious what Alcantara’s trade value is. He has a 7.22 ERA (4.59 FIP). Velocity is still there, less swing and miss, but stuff+ still good. Feels like he’d be a really good buy low, but Marlins have no reason to sell low unless they want out of his contract. Jays have elite defense so Sandy would definitely benefit from that. I’d rather have him than Keller, as there’s a chance you’re buying a bit lower on a top end starter rather than buying high on a high floor mid rotation option for similar money. 

Yeah, I really have no idea what they'd land for Alcantara, but I can't imagine it being a top prospect. 

This would remind me of the Jays' acquisition of Robbie Ray in 2020.  Maybe we can go high reward / high risk if Scherzer's thumb plays along and Manoah actually looks like a viable depth option through the stretch run of the season, but I'd much prefer someone who's actually performing NOW even if it comes at a higher prospect cost.

[glory]

16 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

Yeah, I really have no idea what they'd land for Alcantara, but I can't imagine it being a top prospect. 

This would remind me of the Jays' acquisition of Robbie Ray in 2020.  Maybe we can go high reward / high risk if Scherzer's thumb plays along and Manoah actually looks like a viable depth option through the stretch run of the season, but I'd much prefer someone who's actually performing NOW even if it comes at a higher prospect cost.

Atkins acquired Liriano (5.46 ERA) in 2016 at the deadline when the team had a chance at the division and put him right in the rotation. Then as you mentioned there was Ray (7.84 ERA) and Stripling (5.61 ERA) in 2020 when they were in the Mickey Mouse Wild Card race. Traded for Matz (9.68 ERA) before the 2021 season, though their deadline pickup that year was Berrios who they had to pay a premium for. They didn't trade for rotation help at the 2022 deadline, and didn't need to in 2023 given how great their pitching was. I don't think Alcantara would be uncharacteristic of an Atkins deadline pickup given his history. Of course Atkins' job wasn't (presumably) on the line in previous deadlines as it may be now, so maybe that alters his thinking. I'd go with Sandy in a heartbeat over Keller given those 2 options and hope for the best, but a lot will depend on prospect cost. 

[Terminator]

Jays have a pretty good track record with veterans pitchers so if they can identify a mid rotation guy that they think they can get #2 starter production out of, that might be the route to go.

Whether that's Alcantara or Keller or someone idk, but the pitching nerds in the FO can probably identify one that they can squeeze more juice out of.

[glory]

29 minutes ago, Terminator said:

It seems like the Marlins could be a good fit in that they are playing a lot better and might be interested in a lot of our AAA guys to fill their holes. 

On the other hand they traded 2 years of Luzardo in the off-season for 2 prospects who make 2025 Nimmala look big league ready by comparison. Could go either way with them. 

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, glory said:

I’m very curious what Alcantara’s trade value is. He has a 7.22 ERA (4.59 FIP). Velocity is still there, less swing and miss, but stuff+ still good. Feels like he’d be a really good buy low, but Marlins have no reason to sell low unless they want out of his contract. Jays have elite defense so Sandy would definitely benefit from that. I’d rather have him than Keller, as there’s a chance you’re buying a bit lower on a top end starter rather than buying high on a high floor mid rotation option for similar money. 

I wonder how much he would benefit from an upgrade from Augustin Ramirez (still learning how to catch by all reports) to Kirk.  I feel like that alone could be significant for him.

[Laika]

If you ignore ERA, Sandy Alcantara is not that different from the version of himself in 2023, or 2019. 

Such a weird evaluation. 

If they Fish hold him they risk a) another injury or b) he continues to suck and his value just goes to zero. 

Right now he has has a bit of value because the stuff still rates well and the DIPS are okay. 

[sliderguy35]

my guess would be that sandy's price will be similar to what the marlins got for luzardo (guys with big stuff, coming off down performances) + the additional tax that comes with trading in-season vs the offseason. 

that rounds out to something like a fringe top 100 guy + a depth piece + a flier on a young up-the-middle guy or pitcher. depending on the marlins' preferences that probably looks something like:

• yesavage or roden (MAYBE orelvis if they value him highly but those contact rates are yikes)
• rainer nunez, josh kasevich or yohendrick pinango (i would be VERY bummed if they trade pinango though, he's their next big breakout guy)
• edward duran, juan sanchez or daniel guerra

FWIW I would absolutely do this if I were the jays. guys with his kind of stuff & pedigree at that price w/ years of control barely ever get moved. his command is coming back & there's some immediate pitch mix changes (e.g get back to throwing a lot more changeup behind in count to lefties) that might bring him all the way back.

[Spanky__99]

It's getting close to decision time for teams on the bubble, the stove should start getting hot next week.

[Spanky__99]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

They gobbled up Norby and Stowers last year who were similar guys. On the cusp but no room. And it worked with Stowers. So yeah maybe they think they are smart and can fix Orelvis.

Orelvis dropped to 9th in our updated top 30 today by BA. Dude's dropping like a rock.

[John_Havok]

35 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

It's getting close to decision time for teams on the bubble, the stove should start getting hot next week.

Right around the 15th is my guess. Like most years, teams pour all their mental resources into the draft, then suddenly remember they only have 2 weeks to reinforce their teams

[John_Havok]

Griffin Jax would be a great pen target if the Twins sell. 

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, John_Havok said:

Griffin Jax would be a great pen target if the Twins sell. 

I've heard some suggest the Twins may consider selling Joe Ryan as well.  You'd have him through 2027.  He'd cost a ton, but his value may never be higher for the Twins...

[Laika]

2 hours ago, sliderguy35 said:

my guess would be that sandy's price will be similar to what the marlins got for luzardo (guys with big stuff, coming off down performances) + the additional tax that comes with trading in-season vs the offseason. 

that rounds out to something like a fringe top 100 guy + a depth piece + a flier on a young up-the-middle guy or pitcher. depending on the marlins' preferences that probably looks something like:

• yesavage or roden (MAYBE orelvis if they value him highly but those contact rates are yikes)
• rainer nunez, josh kasevich or yohendrick pinango (i would be VERY bummed if they trade pinango though, he's their next big breakout guy)
• edward duran, juan sanchez or daniel guerra

FWIW I would absolutely do this if I were the jays. guys with his kind of stuff & pedigree at that price w/ years of control barely ever get moved. his command is coming back & there's some immediate pitch mix changes (e.g get back to throwing a lot more changeup behind in count to lefties) that might bring him all the way back.

welcome to the board!

[harvey16]

Degrom would give the Jays a true Ace pitcher, but his injury history is scary and he's 37, so even without getting injured, age regression is a big concern as well. I'd be willing to make a trade for him, but the Rangers would have to eat a chuck of his remaining contract. He's the kind of guy that could put us in serious WS contention but this trade could also backfire on us badly too. It's a risky scenario for sure.

[Spanky__99]

So teams selling...

Rockies
White Sox
Pirates
Athletics
Nationals 
Braves
Orioles
Marlins

On the Bubble...

Guardians
D-Backs
Rangers 
Twins
Reds
Angels
Royals

[Laika]

Red Sox, Cardinals, Padres might do some selling or at least buying and selling. All have playoff odds under 40%. 

[harvey16]

5 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

So teams selling...

Rockies
White Sox
Pirates
Athletics
Nationals 
Braves
Orioles
Marlins

On the Bubble...

Guardians
D-Backs
Rangers 
Twins
Angels
Royals

I Would add the Red Sox to the bubble list as well. They are playing better lately but still in 4th place in the division.

[Spanky__99]

6 minutes ago, Laika said:

Red Sox, Cardinals, Padres might do some selling or at least buying and selling. All have playoff odds under 40%. 

IDK, they seem like teams that make minor upgrades(depth) or stand pat and see how it shakes out.

[Spanky__99]

4 minutes ago, harvey16 said:

I Would add the Red Sox to the bubble list as well. They are playing better lately but still in 4th place in the division.

They're in a playoff spot.

[Terminator]

3 hours ago, sliderguy35 said:

my guess would be that sandy's price will be similar to what the marlins got for luzardo (guys with big stuff, coming off down performances) + the additional tax that comes with trading in-season vs the offseason. 

that rounds out to something like a fringe top 100 guy + a depth piece + a flier on a young up-the-middle guy or pitcher. depending on the marlins' preferences that probably looks something like:

• yesavage or roden (MAYBE orelvis if they value him highly but those contact rates are yikes)
• rainer nunez, josh kasevich or yohendrick pinango (i would be VERY bummed if they trade pinango though, he's their next big breakout guy)
• edward duran, juan sanchez or daniel guerra

FWIW I would absolutely do this if I were the jays. guys with his kind of stuff & pedigree at that price w/ years of control barely ever get moved. his command is coming back & there's some immediate pitch mix changes (e.g get back to throwing a lot more changeup behind in count to lefties) that might bring him all the way back.

You sold me on Sandy. Go get him Ross.

[glory]

5 hours ago, mphenhef said:

I wonder how much he would benefit from an upgrade from Augustin Ramirez (still learning how to catch by all reports) to Kirk.  I feel like that alone could be significant for him.

Yeah the difference in framing, fielding value, DRS, etc, between the two catching tandems and in general (all positions) is significant. I’m not sure if Sandy is ever going back to the Cy Young days but with the Jays defense behind him and Pete Walker’s rep with helping vet starters, I like the chances for a bounce back. 

Cabrera or Ryan would also be great targets but price will be a lot higher.