Article: Alan Roden, Newly-Crowned Top 100 Prospect

[Simon Li]

Alan Roden had an excellent spring training, slashing .407/.541/.704 for a 220 wRC+.That performance not only guaranteed Roden a spot on the Opening Day roster, but finally convinced FanGraphs that he's one of the 100 best prospects in the game.

Alan Roden is Jays Centre's sixth-ranked prospect, and we might have undersold how good he is. Roden was the team's round pick in 2022, a senior sign with "only" a $497,500 signing bonus out of Creighton. Roden is possibly the culmination of the Jays drafting strategy for hitters, with a seemingly model-heavy approach that targets hitters with strong bat-to-ball skills, solid plate approaches, and the possibility that they could grow into some power with a swing change. This approach has had more moderate success with Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz, and Josh Kasevich. Roden, on the other hand, has exceeded almost every expectation, showing very strong contact metrics, great strikeout-to-walk ratios, and showing flashes of decent power. He hit career-high of 16 home runs in 2024 after implementing a stance change. Roden also displayed his strong athleticism, easily handling the corner outfield spots and stealing double-digit bases. Ross Atkins also singled him out as a guy to watch prior to the start of spring training, and Roden did not disappoint.

Eric Logenhagen, the lead prospect analyst at FanGraphs, had been itching to add Roden to previous top 100 lists. He put Roden on the BOARD with a full scouting report, but saw flaws that prevented him from getting on the list: a weakness handling low, well-spotted breaking balls, a tendency to chase with two strikes, and lastly, a body type that he felt would not age too well. Another slight concern was that Roden would not make the major league roster until 2026, thanks to a crowded outfield and not being on the 40-man roster. However, those concerns were mostly assuaged by Roden's stellar spring training. Some people reasonably tend to discount spring training numbers, but Roden was able to show some signs that he's improved on some of his weaknesses. 

Logenhagen wrote that Roden's new approach against low breaking balls potentially allowed for more power, and rave reviews from multiple scouts to guarantee him a spot on Fangraphs' updated top 100. Roden came in at 82, with a 50-grade Future Value. Still Roden is not the highest-ranked Jay on the list, with Jake Bloss and his improved velocity at 59th, and wunderkind Arjun Nimmala at 70th. Ricky Tiedemann is still an honourable mention, but has been pushed down to 114th due to some healthier prospects being able to leapfrog him. This is a welcome sign for the Blue Jays, who haven't drafted and developed a solid starting outfielder in a long while. While Roden has been added to one top 100 list, I am not expecting him to be added to any other. Not because he won't deserve it, but because when midseason prospect rankings get published, Roden will have hopefully graduated from prospect status and excelled as a key piece to the Jays offense.

Here's Longenhagen's whole blurb on Roden:

Quote

The way Roden’s hands work causes his bat path to be flat, which really lets him cover the top of the strike zone. It results in Roden making some concessions against well-located breaking stuff at the bottom of the zone, which he often drove into the ground last year. He’s dipping deeper into his lower body against those pitches this spring, giving him a better chance to do damage against them. Multiple scouts I spoke with have everyday grades on Roden based on their looks this spring.

 

View full article

[BatFlip]

The underrated Jay's farm finally getting a little more love. 

Wagner and Roden seemed to be rated a bit low in all the pre-season prospect lists, even with the obvious criticisms (age, position, lack of power etc.).  Yes, their potential ceiling isn't a a fan's wet dream, but their hit tool and approach seemed undervalued given their profile is much lower risk / higher certainty (better probability weighted outcomes) then some prospects rated above them. 

It will make a significant difference in the team's short to mid-term if we can pepper this roster with several 2-3 WAR cost controlled players.  Plus, I really like everything I've seen and heard about Roden.  The kid studied Astrophysics, so put him next to Vladdy in the lockerroom and they can have some debates on the origins of the universe.  Hopefully this kid can stick and contribute!

 

 

 

[Daniel Labude]

Being able to cover the whole zone separates him from many prospects. Especially the top of the zone, which has been the huge negative for Schneider, Loperfido, and Barger 

[max silver]

18 minutes ago, LetTheBallFly said:

Being able to cover the whole zone separates him from many prospects. Especially the top of the zone, which has been the huge negative for Schneider, Loperfido, and Barger 

Some of the tools look to be a little better than advertised. Roden's sprint speed has worked it's way up to above league average at 27.5 ft/s, albeit with an awkward looking running technique. The defense has been very good so far as well. 

[Laika]

12 minutes ago, LetTheBallFly said:

Being able to cover the whole zone separates him from many prospects. Especially the top of the zone, which has been the huge negative for Schneider, Loperfido, and Barger 

Wagner and Roden are such a breath of fresh air. It's probably an overreaction but it really feels like the team's current and mid-term outlook is so much better with them in the fold. Just solid hitters who at worst should be strong side platoon assets. 

I fear that Davis Schneider's time is almost up. Few more weeks in his current role without some bombs and they should pull the plug. He just doesn't look like an MLB player anymore. 

Not exactly a direct replacement in AAA though. If only Barger was a RHB. They could go with Stefanic, who is a completely different kind of player and a contact guy / slap hitter. There is still JDM in free agency but I would guess he wants a bigger role than small side platoon / pinch hitter. Jonatan Clase could take his spot but they probably don't want to bring Clase up to have him barely play. They could try out Rainer Nunez or Riley Tirotta. I don't see any other remaining RHB free agents who are worth bringing in. 

[Daniel Labude]

28 minutes ago, Laika said:

Wagner and Roden are such a breath of fresh air. It's probably an overreaction but it really feels like the team's current and mid-term outlook is so much better with them in the fold. Just solid hitters who at worst should be strong side platoon assets. 

I fear that Davis Schneider's time is almost up. Few more weeks in his current role without some bombs and they should pull the plug. He just doesn't look like an MLB player anymore. 

Not exactly a direct replacement in AAA though. If only Barger was a RHB. They could go with Stefanic, who is a completely different kind of player and a contact guy / slap hitter. There is still JDM in free agency but I would guess he wants a bigger role than small side platoon / pinch hitter. Jonatan Clase could take his spot but they probably don't want to bring Clase up to have him barely play. They could try out Rainer Nunez or Riley Tirotta. I don't see any other remaining RHB free agents who are worth bringing in. 

Rainer as much as I loved him as a prospect through the years has his own issue that will be a problem in the major leagues without correction...velocity. He still has been using a hand flick on the bat while the pitcher is throwing the pitch. It really drags him down and he is late on many fastballs of all velocity. I think eliminating that would really see him take off with his high end EVs when he is on time 

[Terminator]

43 minutes ago, Laika said:

I fear that Davis Schneider's time is almost up. Few more weeks in his current role without some bombs and they should pull the plug. He just doesn't look like an MLB player anymore. 

Not exactly a direct replacement in AAA though.

Yeah the right handed bench bat options are not great if Schneider can't perform.

Orelvis or Jimenez could do the trick against lefties but you want them playing everyday and we need more OF than INF since the Wagner/Clement platoon is already fine.

When Varsho is back I don't think you want Straw in a corner.

Maybe just play Roden everyday.

[Laika]

7 minutes ago, LetTheBallFly said:

Rainer as much as I loved him as a prospect through the years has his own issue that will be a problem in the major leagues without correction...velocity. He still has been using a hand flick on the bat while the pitcher is throwing the pitch. It really drags him down and he is late on many fastballs of all velocity. I think eliminating that would really see him take off with his high end EVs when he is on time 

I see what you're saying about Rainer. Man, that should be a very easy thing to fix... 

[Daniel Labude]

8 minutes ago, Laika said:

I see what you're saying about Rainer. Man, that should be a very easy thing to fix... 

I hope so. Its gone from a 2 hand flick, to one hand, to a small flick. Still been sticking with it though 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

I fear that Davis Schneider's time is almost up. Few more weeks in his current role without some bombs and they should pull the plug. He just doesn't look like an MLB player anymore. 

This team needs Steve Pearce...

[Orgfiller]

15 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

This team needs Steve Pearce...

Tommy Pham coming to a Dome near you in mid July.

[Laika]

Steve Pearce is exactly what the Jays need. That's a World Series move. 

Pham would also be splendid. 

I wonder if there is a good trade target if we look at RHB who aren't getting a lot of PA. Someone from the fringes of another roster. 

Chas McCormick 
Austin Slater 
Bryan De La Cruz

Someone like that

[Orgfiller]

13 minutes ago, Laika said:

Steve Pearce is exactly what the Jays need. That's a World Series move. 

Pham would also be splendid. 

I wonder if there is a good trade target if we look at RHB who aren't getting a lot of PA. Someone from the fringes of another roster. 

Chas McCormick 
Austin Slater 
Bryan De La Cruz

Someone like that

Isn't De La Cruz the starting RF for the Barves with Acuna and now Profar out? Slater is a good target with the White Sox being horrendous and him not having any team control like McCormick.

[Jonn]

Now that he’s on a top 100 prospect list. Do we get a first round draft pick if he wins ROY?

[Simon Li]

19 minutes ago, Jonn said:

Now that he’s on a top 100 prospect list. Do we get a first round draft pick if he wins ROY?

Unfortunately not, it has to be 2 of MLB Pipeline, ESPN and Baseball America. 

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, sackydude said:

Unfortunately not, it has to be 2 of MLB Pipeline, ESPN and Baseball America. 

Insane that they tie bonus picks into being ranked by 3rd party services.

The industry disagrees with the media on the value of players all the time.