Alan Roden, Newly-Crowned Top 100 Prospect

Alan Roden is Jays Centre's sixth-ranked prospect, and we might have undersold how good he is. Roden was the team's round pick in 2022, a senior sign with "only" a $497,500 signing bonus out of Creighton. Roden is possibly the culmination of the Jays drafting strategy for hitters, with a seemingly model-heavy approach that targets hitters with strong bat-to-ball skills, solid plate approaches, and the possibility that they could grow into some power with a swing change. This approach has had more moderate success with Davis Schneider, Spencer Horwitz, and Josh Kasevich. Roden, on the other hand, has exceeded almost every expectation, showing very strong contact metrics, great strikeout-to-walk ratios, and showing flashes of decent power. He hit career-high of 16 home runs in 2024 after implementing a stance change. Roden also displayed his strong athleticism, easily handling the corner outfield spots and stealing double-digit bases. Ross Atkins also singled him out as a guy to watch prior to the start of spring training, and Roden did not disappoint.

Eric Logenhagen, the lead prospect analyst at FanGraphs, had been itching to add Roden to previous top 100 lists. He put Roden on the BOARD with a full scouting report, but saw flaws that prevented him from getting on the list: a weakness handling low, well-spotted breaking balls, a tendency to chase with two strikes, and lastly, a body type that he felt would not age too well. Another slight concern was that Roden would not make the major league roster until 2026, thanks to a crowded outfield and not being on the 40-man roster. However, those concerns were mostly assuaged by Roden's stellar spring training. Some people reasonably tend to discount spring training numbers, but Roden was able to show some signs that he's improved on some of his weaknesses. 

Logenhagen wrote that Roden's new approach against low breaking balls potentially allowed for more power, and rave reviews from multiple scouts to guarantee him a spot on Fangraphs' updated top 100. Roden came in at 82, with a 50-grade Future Value. Still Roden is not the highest-ranked Jay on the list, with Jake Bloss and his improved velocity at 59th, and wunderkind Arjun Nimmala at 70th. Ricky Tiedemann is still an honourable mention, but has been pushed down to 114th due to some healthier prospects being able to leapfrog him. This is a welcome sign for the Blue Jays, who haven't drafted and developed a solid starting outfielder in a long while. While Roden has been added to one top 100 list, I am not expecting him to be added to any other. Not because he won't deserve it, but because when midseason prospect rankings get published, Roden will have hopefully graduated from prospect status and excelled as a key piece to the Jays offense.

Here's Longenhagen's whole blurb on Roden:

Quote

The way Roden’s hands work causes his bat path to be flat, which really lets him cover the top of the strike zone. It results in Roden making some concessions against well-located breaking stuff at the bottom of the zone, which he often drove into the ground last year. He’s dipping deeper into his lower body against those pitches this spring, giving him a better chance to do damage against them. Multiple scouts I spoke with have everyday grades on Roden based on their looks this spring.