Article: Blue Jays 2025 Opening Day Projected Lineup: Version 2.0

[Mike LeSage]

After a few weeks of spring training action, several Opening Day roster spots are far from certain.

Almost a month ago we looked at how the opening day lineup might shake out. Now that we’ve got some spring training games in the rearview, let's have a look at what’s changed and how much clearer the picture has become.

Lineup and Batting Order

1. Bo Bichette - SS (R)
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B (R)
3. Anthony Santander - RF (S)
4. George Springer - LF (R)

Same top four as the previous projection, but with a couple of tweaks. Springer moves from first to fourth and everyone else shifts up one. Manager John Schneider has implied that Guerrero and Santander are fairly locked into the second and third spots, with Bichette bouncing between leadoff and cleanup, “depending on who we’re facing.” He didn’t explicitly state that Springer would switch places with Bichette based on matchups, but in the games that all four of these guys have started, this has been the order. I’ve also flipped Springer and Santander’s outfield corner assignments because Springer has been seeing more time in left so far. That may be a sign of how the season will go, or it may just be getting him comfortable with the position now so that he can rotate in-season.

 

5. Andrés Giménez - 2B (L)
6. Alejandro Kirk - C (R)

Kirk stays in the six-spot, but Giménez leapfrogs him. This is the way we’ve seen this pair in the lineup most of the spring. Although Kirk is the superior hitter, Giménez’s speed and ability to swipe a bag should help keep the double plays at a minimum. The Jays have also placed Giménez at leadoff for a handful of spring games, so there’s some precedent for him to move all the way to the top, moving Bichette and Springer down to four and five.

 

7. Addison Barger - DH (L)
8. Ernie Clement - 3B (R)
9. Daulton Varsho - CF (L)

Barger and Varsho are the two big additions here from the last projection. Barger moves up from the bench based on the hot spring he’s demonstrated so far (1.149 OPS in 21 ABs) and Varsho comes in from the trainers room in the hopes that his recovery from shoulder surgery is indeed ahead of schedule and there are no setbacks. Varsho is still increasing his throwing distance and has only been DH’ing to this point in the spring, so maybe an Opening Day start in center is optimistic, but if nothing else, mid-March is a time for optimism.

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The Bench

Tyler Heineman - C (S)
Will Wagner - 1B/3B/DH (L)
Steward Berroa - OF (S)
Davis Schneider - 2B/LF (R)

Ultimately, not much change here, though plenty of other names have a strong case. Varsho’s status is the big question mark. If he’s not ready, I think Joey Loperfido has the inside track to cover CF. My colleague Jesse Burrill also laid out a great case for Alan Roden. Myles Straw has also had a terrific spring so far. The Jays outfield is a crowded place right now, but I think Berroa presents the best bench option, mainly based on the way he was used last season, but also on the 40-man moves that would be required for some of the other names. Orelvis Martínez and Leo Jiménez have their supporters too. Like Roden’s, their omissions have to do with playing time. I suspect if one of the starters has a long absence, we’ll see these guys up before we see Schneider take over a starting role, but Babe gets the bench spot as a sub.

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Starting Rotation

1. José Berríos (RHP)
2. Kevin Gausman (RHP)
3. Max Scherzer (RHP)
4. Chris Bassitt (RHP)
5. Bowden Francis (RHP)

No change here, other than officially assigning Yariel Rodríguez to the ‘pen. The starters have looked good-to-great so far and I don’t want to say much else that might jinx that. Berríos is still my guess for Opening Day starter, but I’m betting that Gausman is back (hat tip to Owen Hill) and will be the recognized, capital-A Ace by the end of the season.

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Bullpen

Jeff Hoffman (RHP)
Chad Green (RHP)
Yimi García (RHP)
Nick Sandlin (RHP)
Brendon Little (LHP)
Ryan Yarbrough (LHP)
Zach Pop (RHP)
Yariel Rodríguez (RHP)

In a mid-game interview during the third inning of the Jays-Twins game on Tuesday, John Schneider said he’s got “three or four guys battling for the last bullpen spot.” Hopefully, Erik Swanson’s elbow issue will turn out to be a minor thing, but he’s expected to start the season on the IL at a minimum, so the potential for someone else to grab some impact innings (or a late spring acquisition) is in play. Little and Yarbrough provide the lefty presence, and Pop has been with the organization long enough to have the inside track, but I could be easily swayed to leave any of them off in favour of your preferred bullpen depth piece, like Tommy Nance. The recently signed, and returning, Dillon Tate certainly has a shot to get in. His almost 4 innings with the Jays last season weren't much of an audition, but (pending a physical) he's got a major-league deal with the club.

 

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[wilko]

Springer should be down in the lineup. He's cooked. 

[John_Havok]

13 minutes ago, wilko said:

Springer should be down in the lineup. He's cooked. 

The Jays don't really have a true cleanup hitter right now if Santander is hitting 3rd. 

Springer will likely get the chance for the first couple weeks and if he sucks and the underlying metrics are bad, they'll have to move him. 

Against certain RHP Gimenez leading off makes some sense, which would put Bo in cleanup, which isn't terrible, but it would be really nice if a guy like Varsho could dial in that power stroke more often, or Barger. Having Gimenez, Vlad, Santander, Bo, Varsho/Barger against RHP would be a handful to deal with. 

[Terminator]

This is a great article!

• Barger yanking 440 foot homers out of the stadium has me intrigued too. He also projects well. Get him ABs early and if he struggles he can be optioned for Roden.
• Wagner's projections are great but getting both him and Barger ABs could be hard early on. I think they can do it by working them in at 3B 
• Nance's stuff is intriguing, though he's never really put up good numbers at any level and is 34. 
• I can't stand Zach Pop but his Stuff+ and Location+ should be good enough to be decent. But for some reason he can't really seem to put it together either.
• Yarbrough is slightly intriguing to me. The Jays might be squeezing more juice out of him than the Dodgers and if we get injuries (or if Francis and Yariel continue to suck) he might be a serviceable bulk pitcher. 

[glory]

42 minutes ago, wilko said:

Springer should be down in the lineup. He's cooked. 

Yeah last season he had a fantastic July, but was basically ass the rest of the year, and the Jays kept trotting him out there because of vetrin presents. Curious to see what happens this season if he has a wRC+ in the 60's in June like he did last year. Depth isn't an excuse as Barger and Roden can both play RF, and Roden can play LF with Tony sliding over to RF. One of the downsides of long term contracts to vets who are clearly washed is that they'll keep trotting them out there despite the sunk cost. If he doesn't bounce back then the Jays better be prepared to have a quicker hook with him.