Blue Jays Video
Before we get rolling, I’m assuming good health and an unsurprising spring training for the purposes of this exercise. Taking the assumption train one stop further, the Jays open the season against the Baltimore Orioles, and based on their depth charts they’ll have a righty on the mound (probably Zach Eflin), so we’ll be looking at the Jays facing RHP.
Lineup and Batting Order
1. George Springer - RF (R): Springer lost his leadoff spot for a 44-game stretch from May to July last season, but he spent the majority of his time as #1 on the call sheet. He may have a shorter leash this year, but he’ll be there to start and he’ll keep it as long as he produces.
2. Bo Bichette - SS (R): 2024 saw Bichette bounce around the order more than we were used to seeing. When healthy in previous seasons, Bichette has had more of a lock on the two-spot in the order. With the cleanup spot more solidified, expect to see Bo regularly hitting second.
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B (R): Similarly, Guerrero Jr. has been a mainstay at #3. He's moved around some, but has batted third more than anywhere else in the order the last few seasons.
4. Anthony Santander - LF (S): The Blue Jays’ biggest off-season signing has come to Toronto to do two things: crush baseballs and chew gum, and he's all out of gum. I expect Santander to hit cleanup each day that he's in the lineup. He'll get some starts in RF for sure, and rotate through the DH spot, but on day one, he'll be in left.
5. Will Wagner - DH (L): Wagner can hit. There are questions around his power profile and what position he might settle into with the current Jays lineup – how many starts will Vladdy see at third base? – but he makes contact and puts the ball in play. Expect to see him get most opportunities against righties.
6. Alejandro Kirk - C (R): The days of a three-headed catching platoon are well in the rearview now. The spot is Kirk's for as many games as he can handle it. How does 120 sound? If the pop from 2022 can find a way back, he might move up a spot, but he’ll most likely be shuffling deck chairs with the bottom of the order.
7. Andrés Giménez - 2B (L): Another player we'd love to see regain his 2022 form is Giménez. He's here for the glove, but if even a little of that bat can come back around, he'll be great value.
8. Ernie Clement - 3B (R): Maybe I'm getting a little too cute with the lefty/righty balance at the bottom of the order. Clement had games at all nine spots in the order last season with the bulk at six, seven, and eight. If he can get the K/BB ratio to swing towards a little more selectively at the plate he could move up a spot or two. He can also cover shortstop in a pinch if Bo needs a maintenance day.
9. Joey Loperfido - CF (L): Dalton Varsho is expected to miss the start of the season after ending last year with shoulder surgery (stay tuned for timeline updates). Loperfido will get an opportunity to hold on to the spot until Varsho’s return.
The Bench
Tyler Heineman - C (S): Kirk will need the occasional day off and there isn't another catcher on the current 40-man roster. Heineman has been serviceable, if unremarkable, and has caught most of the Jays current rotation in his time(s) with Toronto.
Addison Barger - 3B/LF/RF (L): In addition to the three positions he played last season with the Jays, he also spent some time at shortstop in Buffalo. Expect Barger and Clement to share the bulk of starts at third base and race to see who gets the hot hand first.
Steward Berroa - OF (S): Used primarily as a pinch runner last year, Berroa can fill that role again while providing backup coverage in center until Varsho returns.
Davis Schneider - 2B/LF (R): To say that Babe struggled last season would be a huge understatement. He put up a ‘perfect’ 0.0 bWAR over almost 400 ABs. His splits don’t suggest a platoon would help and the positions he covers have other applicants ready to take the spot. He’s undeniably entering the spring on shaky ground and could easily spend the year in Buffalo, but the 1.8 bWAR he put up in just 35 games in 2023 is recent enough memory that he might get more time to find that form.
Starting Rotation
1. José Berríos (RHP): He’s been the Opening Day starter two of the last three seasons and I expect he’ll get that honor again this year. Berríos has also thrown over 170 innings each of the last 3 seasons and he’ll be counted on to continue that workhorse status.
2. Kevin Gausman (RHP): Even after a down 2024, Gausman is projected to have the highest positive impact from the rotation. He challenged for the Cy Young award in 2023 and if he can return to that form, he’ll be the ace the team craves.
3. Chris Bassitt (RHP): Bassitt will be 36 years old on Opening Day and is in the last year of his contract. With the improved bullpen he shouldn’t be needed to pitch deep into games too often.
4. Max Scherzer (RHP): The newly acquired Scherzer will look to close out his Hall of Fame career with an impactful season in Toronto. Hopefully his playoff experience will be something the Jays need this year.
5. Bowden Francis (RHP): After his historic August Francis will get every opportunity to lock up a regular rotation spot.
6. Yariel Rodríguez (RHP): Bowden Francis is the only Jays starter under 30 and last season was the first time he pitched more than 40 innings in the majors. Even if everyone has a healthy year (don’t laugh, it could happen!) Rodríguez is likely to get some starts as the other pitchers require a maintenance day or even a couple weeks of a six-man rotation when the schedule gets particularly cramped. Until then, he’ll be in the long relief role from the ‘pen.
Bullpen
Jeff Hoffman (RHP): GM Ross Atkins has said that Hoffman “will get the opportunity to close games”, but there isn’t a full indication yet that he will own the ninth inning. Expect him to get the most chances though.
Chad Green (RHP): Chad Green put up 17 saves for Toronto last season and will be counted on again to be a reliable arm out of the pen. Hoffman’s addition likely moves Green to the 8th.
Yimi García (RHP): Back with the Jays after a 10-game stint in Seattle following last season’s trade. Working off the theory that Hoffman is pushing everyone’s previous roles back an inning García is slated for the 7th and setup role
Erik Swanson (RHP): Swanson struggled last season (a common refrain for the bullpen) and spent some time in Buffalo. Expect a positive turnaround and improved results.
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