Mets Putting Together Package For Vladimir Guerrero Jr

[max silver]

6 hours ago, saskjayfan said:

Isn't Atkins suppose to be the analytical group.  I'm starting to think they just google fangraphs like the rest of us.  If you look at analytical and advanced stats the last 4 years Vlad was elite in 21, 22 was a bit of a down year. 23 was far better than 22 when looking at the batted ball profile.  There was a massive gulf between actual results and expected results.  The expected results played out in 24.  Vlad has the potential to play 3rd or even the outfield. 

Vlad's bat is elite.  It's not good it's elite.  If they signed Vlad for 13 years I expect him to be an above average hitter for 13 years.  I expect him to be an elite hitter for the next 7 to 8 years.  He's a hall of famer.  This organization has 1 hall of famer.  He's the most no brainer extensions of all time.  Beyond his talent he has great marketability for revenue that comes in beyond what he does on the field.   

That's awfully optimistic to expect Vlad to be above average offensively until his late 30's. Pujols was pretty much done as an effective hitter as his last above average season offensively was his age 36 season. Miguel Cabrera had a single good offensive season after his age 33 season as well. Vlad is very likely to be a below average player by his early to mid 30's, which leaves the back half of a 13 year extension as most likely being under water. There is a ton of risk in signing this guy to this length of deal simply based on long term extensions for first basemen. Add in the bad body concerns and there is massive landmine potential sooner rather than later.

[Eat My Shatkins]

22 minutes ago, max silver said:

That's awfully optimistic to expect Vlad to be above average offensively until his late 30's. Pujols was pretty much done as an effective hitter as his last above average season offensively was his age 36 season. Miguel Cabrera had a single good offensive season after his age 33 season as well. Vlad is very likely to be a below average player by his early to mid 30's, which leaves the back half of a 13 year extension as most likely being under water. There is a ton of risk in signing this guy to this length of deal simply based on long term extensions for first basemen. Add in the bad body concerns and there is massive landmine potential sooner rather than later.

And that's if he doesn't lose his launch angle again and spend half his remaining prime years grounding into easy double plays.

[saskjayfan]

28 minutes ago, max silver said:

That's awfully optimistic to expect Vlad to be above average offensively until his late 30's. Pujols was pretty much done as an effective hitter as his last above average season offensively was his age 36 season. Miguel Cabrera had a single good offensive season after his age 33 season as well. Vlad is very likely to be a below average player by his early to mid 30's, which leaves the back half of a 13 year extension as most likely being under water. There is a ton of risk in signing this guy to this length of deal simply based on long term extensions for first basemen. Add in the bad body concerns and there is massive landmine potential sooner rather than later.

Of course there's a ton of risk.  Soto carries far greater risk.  You're talking about 55 mil for the last 10 years of his contract.  Atkins was willing to go 51 for 14 years.  Going 13 for 35 on Vlad carries substantially less risk.  Big papi and Nelson cruz were great into their late 30s.  Health is a big factor.  He could get fat and out of shape like Cabrera or he could get planter fasciitis like Pujols.  You're not going to get great players without assuming risk. 

Vlad isn't going to be a below average player in his early 30s....give me a break.  This really is atkins burner account.   

[saskjayfan]

11 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

And that's if he doesn't lose his launch angle again and spend half his remaining prime years grounding into easy double plays.

Have fun watching Soto and Vlad mash next year.  Jays won't make the playoffs for the next decade if they let Vlad go and keep rolling with Atkins.

[Eat My Shatkins]

47 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

Have fun watching Soto and Vlad mash next year.  Jays won't make the playoffs for the next decade if they let Vlad go and keep rolling with Atkins.

Um..ok? Lol

[SuperBlackhawk]

1 hour ago, saskjayfan said:

Have fun watching Soto and Vlad mash next year.  Jays won't make the playoffs for the next decade if they let Vlad go and keep rolling with Atkins.

Maybe Vlad will play like the first half of last season. 🤣

[max silver]

2 hours ago, saskjayfan said:

Of course there's a ton of risk.  Soto carries far greater risk.  You're talking about 55 mil for the last 10 years of his contract.  Atkins was willing to go 51 for 14 years.  Going 13 for 35 on Vlad carries substantially less risk.  Big papi and Nelson cruz were great into their late 30s.  Health is a big factor.  He could get fat and out of shape like Cabrera or he could get planter fasciitis like Pujols.  You're not going to get great players without assuming risk. 

Vlad isn't going to be a below average player in his early 30s....give me a break.  This really is atkins burner account.   

Stop acting like you have some sort of baseball specific bad body player crystal ball. Both of Pujols and Cabrera were below average MLB players by the time they were 34. It takes a pretty giant leap of faith to assume that Vlad will be a useful player by the time he's damn near 40. Ortiz and Cruz are the few outliers who were largely able to defy father time better than most others, and were the exception rather than the rule. 

And the lame Atkins burner account nonsense is just so tired and played out. I could throw a similarly dim witted comment back in your direction in saying that you are the president of the Vlad fan club as you are willfully ignoring the guy's inconsistent offensive profile and the multitude of concerns that come with signing this guy to a long term extension. I'd still love to see him locked up but at the same time I can recognize that this isn't exactly a sure thing to provide value throughout the entire deal as Vlad is more than likely to be a DH only player within the next 5 or so years, and thus the last 7 or 8 years will be paying the man $35 million a season as a pure DH only.

[saskjayfan]

27 minutes ago, max silver said:

Stop acting like you have some sort of baseball specific bad body player crystal ball. Both of Pujols and Cabrera were below average MLB players by the time they were 34. It takes a pretty giant leap of faith to assume that Vlad will be a useful player by the time he's damn near 40. Ortiz and Cruz are the few outliers who were largely able to defy father time better than most others, and were the exception rather than the rule. 

And the lame Atkins burner account nonsense is just so tired and played out. I could throw a similarly dim witted comment back in your direction in saying that you are the president of the Vlad fan club as you are willfully ignoring the guy's inconsistent offensive profile and the multitude of concerns that come with signing this guy to a long term extension. I'd still love to see him locked up but at the same time I can recognize that this isn't exactly a sure thing to provide value throughout the entire deal as Vlad is more than likely to be a DH only player within the next 5 or so years, and thus the last 7 or 8 years will be paying the man $35 million a season as a pure DH only.

Quit pretending there aren't players like Neslon cruz, big papi and many others who succeeded well into their late 30s.  You have Vlad as a DH. at age 31...Like you're a wildly pessimistic person. 

[max silver]

4 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

Quit pretending there aren't players like Neslon cruz, big papi and many others who succeeded well into their late 30s.  You have Vlad as a DH. at age 31...Like you're a wildly pessimistic person. 

I simply don't believe Vlad is going to be the type of player who is going to put the extreme amount of effort required for him to be an effective hitter let alone above average overall player into his late 30's. He's shown the propensity for slacking off in his early years, and I think it's a very real concern that he loses interest in proper conditioning once he's past his physical prime and all of the associated aches and pains with becoming middle aged start to rear their ugly head. For every Nelson Cruz and Big Papi I could likely list 40-50 or however many guys experienced dramatic dropoffs to their offensive profile in the early to mid 30's.

[BTS]

Disappointed at the lack of Prince Fielder comps when it comes to fat 1B. They even both have a career 137 wRC+ through their age 25 season. 

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	819	3540	160	475	507	20	9.9%	15.6%	.213	.304	.288	.363	.500	.367		137	-14.8	139.8	-91.5	17.0
2	Prince Fielder	MIL	675	2804	160	382	453	14	12.3%	19.1%	.267	.300	.284	.381	.550	.391		137	-19.8	112.0	-74.7	12.7

[Rusty_Savage]

39 minutes ago, max silver said:

Stop acting like you have some sort of baseball specific bad body player crystal ball. Both of Pujols and Cabrera were below average MLB players by the time they were 34. It takes a pretty giant leap of faith to assume that Vlad will be a useful player by the time he's damn near 40. Ortiz and Cruz are the few outliers who were largely able to defy father time better than most others, and were the exception rather than the rule. 

And the lame Atkins burner account nonsense is just so tired and played out. I could throw a similarly dim witted comment back in your direction in saying that you are the president of the Vlad fan club as you are willfully ignoring the guy's inconsistent offensive profile and the multitude of concerns that come with signing this guy to a long term extension. I'd still love to see him locked up but at the same time I can recognize that this isn't exactly a sure thing to provide value throughout the entire deal as Vlad is more than likely to be a DH only player within the next 5 or so years, and thus the last 7 or 8 years will be paying the man $35 million a season as a pure DH only.

But in 8-10 years paying an over the hill DH 35 million may not be the albatross it seems like it is now. And seeing how MLB contracts are ballooning, it probably wont be. 

[Spanky99]

3 hours ago, saskjayfan said:

Of course there's a ton of risk.  Soto carries far greater risk.  You're talking about 55 mil for the last 10 years of his contract.  Atkins was willing to go 51 for 14 years.  Going 13 for 35 on Vlad carries substantially less risk.  Big papi and Nelson cruz were great into their late 30s.  Health is a big factor.  He could get fat and out of shape like Cabrera or he could get planter fasciitis like Pujols.  You're not going to get great players without assuming risk. 

Vlad isn't going to be a below average player in his early 30s....give me a break.  This really is atkins burner account.   

Or is this Vlad's burner account?  See what I did there... it's not an easy decision man. I doubt he can play 3B or the OF, there's a lot of risk in this decision for a 1B.

[SuperBlackhawk]

This is Canada. Just give Alonso what he wants and play up the Polar Bear nickname (even though there are teams further north). 

[max silver]

11 hours ago, BTS said:

Disappointed at the lack of Prince Fielder comps when it comes to fat 1B. They even both have a career 137 wRC+ through their age 25 season. 

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	819	3540	160	475	507	20	9.9%	15.6%	.213	.304	.288	.363	.500	.367		137	-14.8	139.8	-91.5	17.0
2	Prince Fielder	MIL	675	2804	160	382	453	14	12.3%	19.1%	.267	.300	.284	.381	.550	.391		137	-19.8	112.0	-74.7	12.7

Fielder had a far worse body than Vlad, and his career was ruined by neck issues. I did some quick research and it appears as though the herniated disc first occurred back in 2013 when Fielder was 29 years old. There has been discussion over whether the extra weight has the reason that Fielder suffered from the initial herniated disc but that's something that we'll never really know for certain. 

[The Cats Ass]

13 hours ago, saskjayfan said:

Quit pretending there aren't players like Neslon cruz, big papi and many others who succeeded well into their late 30s.  You have Vlad as a DH. at age 31...Like you're a wildly pessimistic person. 

Vladdy is currently one of the worst defenders in the league. He should probably be a DH now. He’ll only get fatter and slower. 

[SuperBlackhawk]

5 minutes ago, The Cats Ass said:

Vladdy is currently one of the worst defenders in the league. He should probably be a DH now. He’ll only get fatter and slower. 

Vladdy has a booty like those feral horses where you live. 

[PitaBaby]

Funny enough, I'm in my 2026 RTTS season in The Show and Alonso is on the team now batting cleanup.

Vladdy is on the Rays. 

[BB17]

You don't even have to look far for elite hitters that fell off a cliff in their mid 30s. Former Jays:

Bautista, Donaldson, EE- all were basically done at 36 and had much better bodies, work ethic than Vladdy.

Ryan Howard was cooked at 32 and the list goes on and on.

Also you are forecasting in the future, 5-8 years from now the league is only going to get more athletic, younger etc... Guys are going to be throwing harder and being 33-35 then might be what 36-38 is now.

[L54]

In 5-8 years 35M will be todays 25M 

Look at the Bryce Harper contract. It felt heavy af when he signed but not so much anymore