Multiple free agents took notice of Jays uninspiring farm system - Passan

[mphenhef]

19 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

What gets me is even when the Jays do have a wave of pitching prospects that look like they might have something, they hit Buffalo and f***ing die. Especially the relievers. Like what in the hell happened to Connor Cooke last year? And Pardinho was a beast relieving last year then got promoted to Buffalo and got his face caved in.

Paradinho was always a mirage.  He made hay in the low minors off of offspeed offerings that younger players fall for.  You get to AAA and players no longer fall prey to that.

[mphenhef]

16 hours ago, BatFlip said:

If I recall correctly, when AA took over the Braves had an unreal farm system (8 or 9 of the top 100 prospects) and was the undisputed #1 in the bigs in farm rankings.  

I love AA, and he made some great moves, but he was also taking over at the exact right time.  But again, he has done some great work for sure.

Didn’t he take over as they were hit with penalties for their behaviour in the international market?

[mphenhef]

11 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

To be fair - he traded for Soler (77 wRC+ with KC), Eddie Roserio (88 wRC+ with CLE) and Pederson (92 wRC+ with CHI) and magically, they all went on incredible runs as soon as they reached Atlanta.  He literally threw a bunch of s*** against the wall and it ALL stuck.

If wasn't an aggressive move at all and it probably fails 8 or 9 times out of 10.  He knew they weren't really that good, but, to his credit, he worked some low risk deals to see if he could strike lightning in a bottle - and he did.  Kudos to him, but Atlanta was VERY close to repeating what happened in the 90's.  One might suggest they still could if they don't find a way to win another WS over the next 4-5 years.

Atkins made a similar type move in 2023 adding DeJong, who had a 93 wRC+ at the time and that prick gave us a -76 wRC+ in Toronto LOL  (yes, Soler, Roserio and Pederson all had better track records and such).

Perhaps they saw something in scouting these players and helped them turn around?

[Brownie19]

30 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

Perhaps they saw something in scouting these players and helped them turn around?

Perhaps - or perhaps they use them in differ situations, which can help.  But you only get them for like 150 PAs (of acquired at the deadline), so you're mostly hoping for a hot streak.

Dodgers "hit" with Kike last year.  Got him right around the time he (they?) realized he needed glasses and he got red hot the rest of the year.  That's a pretty crazy example.

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, mphenhef said:

Paradinho was always a mirage.  He made hay in the low minors off of offspeed offerings that younger players fall for.  You get to AAA and players no longer fall prey to that.

I could be wrong, but I believe Pardinho gained a ton of velo when he moved to the pen.  I think he's throwing 96/97 now.  He was more of a soft tosser early on as a starter.  He was also quite young then and has gained velo I believe.

[max silver]

34 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

 

I could be wrong, but I believe Pardinho gained a ton of velo when he moved to the pen.  I think he's throwing 96/97 now.  He was more of a soft tosser early on as a starter.  He was also quite young then and has gained velo I believe.blockquote widgelockquote widget

I had a peak at the minor league Statcast box scores for Pardinho last season. When he debuted in AAA in June he was sitting around 93-94 MPH, and by the end of the season this was down to 91-92 MPH. I'd be willing to be he was running out of gas as the season went on as his 45 appearances out of the pen represented a career high for him.

[AMS528]

3 hours ago, jaysblue said:

You need to take advantage of windows when you have them. They don't last that long. Like seriously, 2021 doesn't seem like long ago, but when looking at the roster now, we look like we're so far away from getting to that point again. 

2021 makes me sad. It's not usually that the best team in the competitive window misses the playoffs but that's what happened to us. 

Springer/Semien/Vlad/Bo/Teo was an absolute wrecking ball of a lineup, with LGJ/Espinal/Jansen/Kirk also having solid years. 

Then you get the Cy Young version of Robbie Ray with the best version of Berrios we ever saw, Manoah/Ryu/Matz rounding it out. 

We should have just signed Semien again. It wasn't a responsible deal, but he's one of my favourite Jays even with just the one season. 

[Brownie19]

10 hours ago, Vladdywagon said:

So let me get this straight:

When Anthopolous consistently makes the right moves, he's just getting lucky, but when Shapiro/Atkins consistently make the wrong moves, they're just unlucky?

That's ridiculous.

I don't think I said that - nor was I trying to say that.

There are a lot of probabilities in baseball though.  If you trade for an all-star at the trade deadline, the probability of them producing down the stretch and into the playoffs is MUCH higher than if you add some role players having poor seasons (like Roserio, Soler, etc.) - but the cost is also higher for the all-star.  An interesting example is when the Jays had to give up Steve Karsey to get Rickey Henderson in 1993.  Rickey is one of the best of all-time and was a superstar rocking a .327 average and a 182 wRC+ (4.4 WAR) when we got him.  He went on to hit .215 with a 90 wRC+ the rest of the way.  Did that mean Pat Gillick was a bad GM?  Was there some illusion he ought to have known Rickey would suck in TO?  If the Jays didn't win the World Series, would it have been fair to blame Gillick for adding Henderson?  No - obviously not (or at least I don't think so).  There was probably a 5% chance Rickey would play that bad for the Jays - but that's exactly what happened.  Nobody's fault - that's just how probabilities work.  Sometimes you can make the right decision and get sh*ty results.

The reality is that GM's can't predict outcomes.  Their team may see something in the underlying stats that they think gives them an advantage - so when they're sifting through the scrap heap, the guy they pick may have a slightly higher probability of success, but it's marginal.  If there was a high probability that Roserio, Soler, Pederson, Duvall were all going to play that well down the stretch, then the price to acquire them would have been higher.  Braves gave up Bryce Ball, Alex Jackson, Pablo Sandoval (yes - the Panda) and Kasey Kalich to get those 4 players.  It cost him essentially nothing to add those 4.  It was a low risk move that paid off beyond his wildest dreams.  As I said several times, kudos to AA.  I do like his approach of throwing multiple pieces against the wall - that increases the probability that something sticks.

There is an old adage that "you have to be good to be lucky and lucky to be good".  AA is a good GM and thus sometimes - good things happen.

For the same reasons, I'm not going to blame AA for the Braves playoff failures in 2022 or 2023.  They had the teams to win the World Series in both of those seasons.  I'm not going to second guess why AA didn't add more to push those teams over the top or suggest he ought to have been more aggressive at those deadlines.  The playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

 

[Carlos Danger]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

I don't think I said that - nor was I trying to say that.

There are a lot of probabilities in baseball though.  If you trade for an all-star at the trade deadline, the probability of them producing down the stretch and into the playoffs is MUCH higher than if you add some role players having poor seasons (like Roserio, Soler, etc.) - but the cost is also higher for the all-star.  An interesting example is when the Jays had to give up Steve Karsey to get Rickey Henderson in 1993.  Rickey is one of the best of all-time and was a superstar rocking a .327 average and a 182 wRC+ (4.4 WAR) when we got him.  He went on to hit .215 with a 90 wRC+ the rest of the way.  Did that mean Pat Gillick was a bad GM?  Was there some illusion he ought to have known Rickey would suck in TO?  If the Jays didn't win the World Series, would it have been fair to blame Gillick for adding Henderson?  No - obviously not (or at least I don't think so).  There was probably a 5% chance Rickey would play that bad for the Jays - but that's exactly what happened.  Nobody's fault - that's just how probabilities work.  Sometimes you can make the right decision and get s***** results.

The reality is that GM's can't predict outcomes.  Their team may see something in the underlying stats that they think gives them an advantage - so when they're sifting through the scrap heap, the guy they pick may have a slightly higher probability of success, but it's marginal.  If there was a high probability that Roserio, Soler, Pederson, Duvall were all going to play that well down the stretch, then the price to acquire them would have been higher.  Braves gave up Bryce Ball, Alex Jackson, Pablo Sandoval (yes - the Panda) and Kasey Kalich to get those 4 players.  It cost him essentially nothing to add those 4.  It was a low risk move that paid off beyond his wildest dreams.  As I said several times, kudos to AA.  I do like his approach of throwing multiple pieces against the wall - that increases the probability that something sticks.

There is an old adage that "you have to be good to be lucky and lucky to be good".  AA is a good GM and thus sometimes - good things happen.

For the same reasons, I'm not going to blame AA for the Braves playoff failures in 2022 or 2023.  They had the teams to win the World Series in both of those seasons.  I'm not going to second guess why AA didn't add more to push those teams over the top or suggest he ought to have been more aggressive at those deadlines.  The playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

 

 

Was there some illusion he ought to have known Rickey would suck in TO?  If the Jays didn't win the World Series, would it have been fair to blame Gillick for adding Henderson?  No - obviously not (or at least I don't think so).  There was probably a 5% chance Rickey would play that bad for the Jays - but that's exactly what happened. 

 

The above is BS. Rickey was a huge part of and contributor to the Jays WS win in 93. f*** his wRC+ and batting average.

 

Are you old enough to really remember the 93 season? Ricky had a .356 OBP for the Jays down the stretch with 22 stolen bases in 44 games. In the playoffs he got 8 hits, 3 RBIs and 2 stolen bases. He was the tying or winning run in the Carter HR.

Most importantly apart from getting on base, Ricky was a disruptor. He would absolutely get in the pitcher’s heads as well as the catcher. This led to errors on pick off plays, rushed throws and errors etc by the catcher or MI. The pitch count would increase to hitters and they would take advantage of pitchers phased by Rickey. 

When the Blue Jays played the A’s in the ALCS a few years prior Ricky single handily forced Ernie Whitt’s retirement by making him look so bad. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brownie19]

18 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

 

Was there some illusion he ought to have known Rickey would suck in TO?  If the Jays didn't win the World Series, would it have been fair to blame Gillick for adding Henderson?  No - obviously not (or at least I don't think so).  There was probably a 5% chance Rickey would play that bad for the Jays - but that's exactly what happened. 

 

The above is BS. Rickey was a huge part of and contributor to the Jays WS win in 93. f*** his wRC+ and batting average.

 

Are you old enough to really remember the 93 season? Ricky had a .356 OBP for the Jays down the stretch with 22 stolen bases in 44 games. In the playoffs he got 8 hits, 3 RBIs and 2 stolen bases. He was the tying or winning run in the Carter HR.

Most importantly apart from getting on base, Ricky was a disruptor. He would absolutely get in the pitcher’s heads as well as the catcher. This led to errors on pick off plays, rushed throws and errors etc by the catcher or MI. The pitch count would increase to hitters and they would take advantage of pitchers phased by Rickey. 

When the Blue Jays played the A’s in the ALCS a few years prior Ricky single handily forced Ernie Whitt’s retirement by making him look so bad. 

Rickey went from hitting .327/.469/.553 with a 182 wRC+ with Oakland to hitting

.215/.356/.319, 90 wRC+ in the regular season and

.170/.316/.255, 65 wRC+ in the playoffs in 1993

Yes, he brings other intangibles, but Rickey didn't play very well for the Jays once they acquired him.  That's not BS, that's a fact.

[Carlos Danger]

10 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Rickey went from hitting .327/.469/.553 with a 182 wRC+ with Oakland to hitting

.215/.356/.319, 90 wRC+ in the regular season and

.170/.316/.255, 65 wRC+ in the playoffs in 1993

Yes, he brings other intangibles, but Rickey didn't play very well for the Jays once they acquired him.  That's not BS, that's a fact.

How old were you in the 2nd half of 1993 and the playoffs?

[BatFlip]

32 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

How old were you in the 2nd half of 1993 and the playoffs?

Ricky was awesome to watch on the basepaths and got a ton of adoration from the broadcasters during the playoffs. 

Ricky was the absolute greatest of all time on the basepaths, but I do remember him underperforming expectations after coming over.  To be fair, I was a little kid, but a little kid who had almost every pro player's stats memorized (I had a sick Topps baseball card collection that year.)

[BatFlip]

1 minute ago, BatFlip said:

Ricky was awesome to watch stealing bases and got a ton of adoration from the broadcasters during the playoffs. 

Ricky was the absolute greatest of all time on the basepaths, but I do remember him underperforming expectations after coming over.  To be fair, I was a little kid, but a little kid who had almost every pro player's stats memorized (I had a sick Topps baseball card collection that year.)

 

[AMS528]

Cmon how can anyone possibly argue that Rickey didn't underperform as a Jay. That's ridiculous, he was a HOF player, playing at a HOF level who performed like a decent player for us in the regular season. 

It doesn't mean his play wasn't helpful, it just means he didn't play like the superstar he was. 

[Terminator]

Rickey's BABIP with us was .218

[Spanky99]

1 hour ago, Carlos Danger said:

How old were you in the 2nd half of 1993 and the playoffs?

Twenty, he did struggle at the plate with results(s***** luck in a small sample), but he did have key moments throughout and wreaked havoc on the pitchers. 

[Brownie19]

25 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Rickey's BABIP with us was .218

Would you suggest that was bad luck for Rickey and the Jays?

[Spanky99]

Just now, Brownie19 said:

Would you suggest that was bad luck for Rickey and the Jays?

lol... of course.

[Carlos Danger]

3 hours ago, AMS528 said:

Cmon how can anyone possibly argue that Rickey didn't underperform as a Jay. That's ridiculous, he was a HOF player, playing at a HOF level who performed like a decent player for us in the regular season. 

It doesn't mean his play wasn't helpful, it just means he didn't play like the superstar he was. 

The OP’s comment was who would have known Ricky would have sucked when he came over in the trade.

 

My contention is that this is a comment from someone who was probably in the single digit age range at the time looking at stat sheet. Ironically while using an advanced stat on one hand, he also used batting average which we all know doesn’t mean s*** when a guy has .360 OBP during the regular season and a near .400 OBP ~ in the playoffs. 

Not sure we beat the Phillies in the WS without Ricky as part of the equation. 

Underperforming from his elite regular season stats to sucking is a HUGE divide.

[jaysblue]

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Carlos Danger said:

The OP’s comment was who would have known Ricky would have sucked when he came over in the trade.

 

My contention is that this is a comment from someone who was probably in the single digit age range at the time looking at stat sheet. Ironically while using an advanced stat on one hand, he also used batting average which we all know doesn’t mean s*** when a guy has .360 OBP during the regular season and a near .400 OBP ~ in the playoffs. 

Not sure we beat the Phillies in the WS without Ricky as part of the equation. 

Underperforming from his elite regular season stats to sucking is a HUGE divide.

Are you just hung up on this because I said he "sucked" instead of saying he underperformed?  C'mon man.  I have no idea what my age has to do with this.  It wouldn't matter if I was 40 or -7 at the time, as I'm obviously looking up the current stats. I assume your trying to flex on how old you are because you're memory from 30 years ago tells suggests he didn't "suck"?

FWIW - His OBP in the playoffs was .316, it wasn't "near .400".  I also never said the Jays wouldn't have won without Rickey.  Oh and I sometimes use "old school" and advanced statistics to prove points as some readers prefer one over the other.

Either way, you're creating a strawman argument and I'm going to move alone thanks.

 

 

[Carlos Danger]

9 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

His OBP in the playoffs was .316, it wasn't "near .400".  Rickey underperformed in his 250 PA's with the Jays - that's clear no matter how you'd like to look at it.  I said there's no way for Gillick to have predicted that and the results don't make it a bad decision. I never said the Jays wouldn't have won without Rickey. 

I have no idea what my age has to do with this.  It wouldn't matter if I was 40 or -7 at the time, as I'm obviously looking up the current stats. I don't particularly care if your memory from 30 years ago tells a different story. I sometimes use "old school" and advanced statistics to prove points as some readers prefer one over the other.

Either way, you're creating a strawman argument and I'm going to move alone thanks.

 

 

.393 WS OBP. You said he sucked, the other poster said he underperformed. Words matter. 

[Brownie19]

50 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

.393 WS OBP. You said he sucked, the other poster said he underperformed. Words matter. 

 

1 hour ago, Carlos Danger said:

Ironically while using an advanced stat on one hand, he also used batting average which we all know doesn’t mean s*** when a guy has .360 OBP during the regular season and a near .400 OBP ~ in the playoffs. 

Yeah - I guess they do.

[Carlos Danger]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

 

Yeah - I guess they do.

Close enough… I used to say I have a 12” cock when it is really only 11.5”.  That doesn’t make me a bad person….

[jaysblue]

4 hours ago, Carlos Danger said:

Close enough… I used to say I have a 12” cock when it is really only 11.5”.  That doesn’t make me a bad person….