General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[jaysblue]

4 hours ago, L54 said:

It’s crazy but there are people on Twitter who actually believe the Jays are better off without Santander lol 

The way Santander was playing earlier and considering the Jays have went on their run and have been in first place pretty much without him in the fold, I kind of understand those sentiments.

If Santander is healthy and like his old self, that power bat definitely helps in the middle of the lineup. As good as Lukes has been filling in for injuries, a healthy Santander is way more impactful in the Postseason. 

[Stangstag]

6 hours ago, L54 said:

It’s crazy but there are people on Twitter who actually believe the Jays are better off without Santander lol 

You can find several posters here that have been saying the same.

The only potential problem i see with Santander coming back is the defense takes a hit, since he or Springer wil have to play the OF. But we need the offense with Bo gone

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

The way Santander was playing earlier and considering the Jays have went on their run and have been in first place pretty much without him in the fold, I kind of understand those sentiments.

If Santander is healthy and like his old self, that power bat definitely helps in the middle of the lineup. As good as Lukes has been filling in for injuries, a healthy Santander is way more impactful in the Postseason. 

Most fans saw him for 3 weeks and concluded he was a washed up loser.  That's what fans do unfortunately.

[Laika]

Hoffman 260 Batters Faced in 2025
Santander 209 PA

 

HR rate for pitchers takes like 1320 BF to be 50% stable 

Just funny to compare stat reliability between a full season RP getting slammed (and now everyone thinks he sucks) and a position player who got hurt after 200 PA. 

The only pitching stats stable in 260 BF or less would be things like K rate, BB rate, GB and FB rates. And of course more granular stuff like velo and stuff metrics which stabilize quickly. You (we) should be regressing Hoffman's HR/FB rate like 80% to the mean (whatever that is). All slash line stats are not nearly stable. LD rate and HR/FB not close to stable. 

However, for hitters 209 PA is enough for 50%+ stability on all of: K rate, BB rate, HR rate, ISO, GB and FB

 

This means nothing because Santander was hurt so you can just throw out most of his 2025 sample, but if that caveat didn't exist you could say that Santander's 2025 numbers actually mean more than Hoffman's. As far as determining how good the player is. 

 

That is to say, if you think Jeff Hoffman sucks than to be consistent you should not even want Santander to come back. 

[Brownie19]

12 minutes ago, Laika said:

Hoffman 260 Batters Faced in 2025
Santander 209 PA

 

HR rate for pitchers takes like 1320 BF to be 50% stable 

Just funny to compare stat reliability between a full season RP getting slammed (and now everyone thinks he sucks) and a position player who got hurt after 200 PA. 

The only pitching stats stable in 260 BF or less would be things like K rate, BB rate, GB and FB rates. And of course more granular stuff like velo and stuff metrics which stabilize quickly. You (we) should be regressing Hoffman's HR/FB rate like 80% to the mean (whatever that is). All slash line stats are not nearly stable. LD rate and HR/FB not close to stable. 

However, for hitters 209 PA is enough for 50%+ stability on all of: K rate, BB rate, HR rate, ISO, GB and FB

This means nothing because Santander was hurt so you can just throw out most of his 2025 sample, but if that caveat didn't exist you could say that Santander's 2025 numbers actually mean more than Hoffman's. As far as determining how good the player is. 

That is to say, if you think Jeff Hoffman sucks than to be consistent you should not even want Santander to come back. 

That's good information - stuff most fans don't know/understand.  This might also help explain why Schneider is sticking with Hoffman as closer (although I'm not sure there are really any better options right now myself).  Schneider may not be as stupid as some of you think, which I know is mindboggling to some.

Hoping we see that regression happen and a healthy Santander back in the lineup soon!

[Laika]

Just now, Brownie19 said:

That's good information - stuff most fans don't know/understand.  This might also help explain why Schneider is sticking with Hoffman as closer (although I'm not sure there are really any better options right now myself).  Schneider may not be as stupid as some of you think, which I know is mindboggling to some.

Hoping we see that regression happen and a healthy Santander back in the lineup soon!

And why the Yankees have stuck with Volpe all year (defensive projections don't care about a few balls thrown away in 2025), etc.

All these teams, well the good ones, run on projected performance. 

Of course there are opportunities to realize your projection model is wrong and win extra games by making quicker decisions.

And yeah the timing of Yimi being hurt and Little/Varland sucking has been part of Hoffman just remaining the closer. Maybe. 

[Masterbather]

13 minutes ago, Laika said:

And why the Yankees have stuck with Volpe all year (defensive projections don't care about a few balls thrown away in 2025), etc.

All these teams, well the good ones, run on projected performance. 

Of course there are opportunities to realize your projection model is wrong and win extra games by making quicker decisions.

And yeah the timing of Yimi being hurt and Little/Varland sucking has been part of Hoffman just remaining the closer. Maybe. 

If only we had another option. If only we had a young fireballer throwing pure filth in our organization that we could add to this team. 

If only....

[mphenhef]

9 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

If only we had another option. If only we had a young fireballer throwing pure filth in our organization that we could add to this team. 

If only....

Are you seriously suggesting they bring up Trey and shove him into the closer role in the heat of a pennant race as a rookie?  That's one way to mess up a prospect.

[Laika]

12 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

If only we had another option. If only we had a young fireballer throwing pure filth in our organization that we could add to this team. 

If only....

If they were to bring up Yesavage they probably use him as a 2-3 inning guy. 

[Masterbather]

16 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

Are you seriously suggesting they bring up Trey and shove him into the closer role in the heat of a pennant race as a rookie?  That's one way to mess up a prospect.

I don't buy this stuff about "messing up" a prospect by putting him in a pressure situation. 

What if he thrives? I believe the cream always rises. The ones who fail were always going to fail.

I don't think you dismiss the possibility just "because".

Especially when you don't have a lot of great options.

[Masterbather]

15 minutes ago, Laika said:

If they were to bring up Yesavage they probably use him as a 2-3 inning guy. 

I think you bring him up and just see what happens. Let the chips fall as they may. 

The first step in the process of course is...BRING HIM UP FFS!!

[Spanky__99]

15 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Santandar just homered for Buffalo. 

Imagine getting a good version of him down the stretch.  Let me know if I should start planning the parade lol

Definitely a good thing.

[Spanky__99]

33 minutes ago, Laika said:

If they were to bring up Yesavage they probably use him as a 2-3 inning guy. 

Right after the starter, in much lower leverage. lol @ closing

 

[Spanky__99]

20 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

I think you bring him up and just see what happens. Let the chips fall as they may. 

The first step in the process of course is...BRING HIM UP FFS!!

I agree, he should've been brought up a while back.

 

[Jimcanuck]

Shatkins should have taken my advice and signed Bellinger instead

[hanton]

22 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

Are you seriously suggesting they bring up Trey and shove him into the closer role in the heat of a pennant race as a rookie?  That's one way to mess up a prospect.

In general it's the complete opposite - you need to challenge your top prospects - you promote from level to level for that reason.  

[Laika]

13 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Right after the starter, in much lower leverage. lol @ closing

 

Dunno about low leverage, but leverage middle relief / bridge stuff. 

Like, imagine Scherzer is struggling through 3 playoff innings. Do you want to bring in Bassitt or Berrios or Lauer? Or do you want to bring in Trey f***ing Yesavage for three innings? Even if the game is very close.

I know my answer... 

[Spanky__99]

2 minutes ago, hanton said:

In general it's the complete opposite - you need to challenge your top prospects - you promote from level to level for that reason.  

Sure, but you ease him in... you don't just drop him in as a closer in a pennant race. That needs to be earned.

[Spanky__99]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

Dunno about low leverage, but leverage middle relief / bridge stuff. 

Like, imagine Scherzer is struggling through 3 playoff innings. Do you want to bring in Bassitt or Berrios or Lauer? Or do you want to bring in Trey f***ing Yesavage for three innings? Even if the game is very close.

I know my answer... 

That's what I mean, as a bridge/mid-reliever. Innings 6-7.

[hanton]

15 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Sure, but you ease him in... you don't just drop him in as a closer in a pennant race. That needs to be earned.

He needs to be called up, he'd be a good bridge to Hoffman/Sir

[Omar]

Santander played in 50 games this season and had over 200 ab's. At what point did his health affect his performance?  He was healthy out of spring training to start the season. He was horrid prior to his outfield collision with the wall. All we can hope for is that when he comes back he is some semblance of his career norms. If he does make it back and ends up being terrible at the plate, does John Schneider have the stones to sit him in favor of someone else?

[Masterbather]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

Sure, but you ease him in... you don't just drop him in as a closer in a pennant race. That needs to be earned.

I wasn't suggesting you just make him closer, I was suggesting you just see what he's got and if he looks good don't be scared to put him in a closer situation. 

Let his pitching dictate where he belongs.

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Jimcanuck said:

Shatkins should have taken my advice and signed Bellinger instead

connorp sighting?

 

[Spanky__99]

12 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

I wasn't suggesting you just make him closer, I was suggesting you just see what he's got and if he looks good don't be scared to put him in a closer situation. 

Let his pitching dictate where he belongs.

I'm sure everyone agree's with that.

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Masterbather said:

If only we had another option. If only we had a young fireballer throwing pure filth in our organization that we could add to this team. 

If only....

Come on you should know very well it's complete folly to suggest that a major league team should call up a first year professional to MLB and should immediately insert him into the closer position. I think there's a really good shot he is called up before season's end as he's being transitioned into a bullpen role but there's little to no chance he's going to be closing games.

[Terminator]

Anyone remember the legend of K-Rod?

23 years ago the Angels called up the 20 year old reliever in mid September. He threw 5 scoreless innings before the postseason started.

He then threw 18.2 innings in the playoffs (4th most on the team despite being a reliever) while piling up 28 strikeouts and allowing just 10 hits and 4 ER.

3 out of their 4 starting pitchers had FIPs over 5.50 that postseason but he and Lackey teamed up to give them a chance to win it all and they did.

Get Yeasavage up here and let's see what he's got!

 

[max silver]

44 minutes ago, Omar said:

Santander played in 50 games this season and had over 200 ab's. At what point did his health affect his performance?  He was healthy out of spring training to start the season. He was horrid prior to his outfield collision with the wall. All we can hope for is that when he comes back he is some semblance of his career norms. If he does make it back and ends up being terrible at the plate, does John Schneider have the stones to sit him in favor of someone else?

I think Santander was likely healthy up until May 8 when he collided with the outfield wall in Anaheim and partially separated his shoulder. He was showing signs of coming out of his funk in approximately 10 days leading up to the injury but he was legitimately awful in the first month of the season. After finding out the severity of the injury he suffered it became instantly apparent that it was a massive mistake to let him try to play through the issue as he couldn't even swing the bat at full speed and he became a slap hitter without the hit tool to make that kind of profile work.

[max silver]

Just now, Terminator said:

Anyone remember the legend of K-Rod?

23 years ago the Angels called up the 20 year old reliever in mid September. He threw 5 scoreless innings before the postseason started.

He then threw 18.2 innings in the playoffs (4th most on the team despite being a reliever) while piling up 28 strikeouts and allowing just 10 hits and 4 ER.

3 out of their 4 starting pitchers had FIPs over 5.50 that postseason but he and Lackey teamed up to give them a chance to win it all and they did.

Get Yeasavage up here and let's see what he's got!

 

He should absolutely be called up at some point, but I do wonder what kind of role he's going to fill. The manager is pretty slow to build trust with his relievers before inserting them into leverage roles, and with the team playing so many close games there aren't likely going to be a ton of lower leverage spots for him to get his feet wet.

[mphenhef]

12 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

I wasn't suggesting you just make him closer, I was suggesting you just see what he's got and if he looks good don't be scared to put him in a closer situation. 

Let his pitching dictate where he belongs.

Now that I could get behind.  

[Terminator]

1 minute ago, max silver said:

He should absolutely be called up at some point, but I do wonder what kind of role he's going to fill. The manager is pretty slow to build trust with his relievers before inserting them into leverage roles, and with the team playing so many close games there aren't likely going to be a ton of lower leverage spots for him to get his feet wet.

Probably a mix of what everyone is saying.

2 inning bridge guy at first and if he looks electric out there they will keep moving him up the pecking order.