General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Brownie19]

15 hours ago, Laika said:

As explained, the projection systems are already downgrading him. It's not just recency bias - it's placing his player profile and age into a complex analysis system which can be either Steamer or ZiPS or my huge brain.

If you just want to look at the last 2000 PA and trust the man, you are basically as smart as the "let's sign Kris Bryant" era Colorado Rockies 

Do in-season projections take injuries into consideration?  It seems obvious that Santander hasn't been anywhere near 100% healthy for a large chunk of this season and it doesn't look like the injuries are going away anytime soon. 

I think common sense just suggests it's unlikely he's going to produce anywhere near what we would have expected preseason.  Although that frustrates me, I'm certainly willing to give him a pass this season and am not yet overly concerned he's completely collapsed as a hitter.  I expect he will provide some quality seasons for us over the next couple of years (assuming he can regain a clean bill of health).  He's only making $13M a year, we didn't pay him to be a star.

[jaysblue]

8 hours ago, Terminator said:

Breath a sigh of relief. Turnbull threw 4+ innings strong.

Playoffs will be easy to make!

[glory]

Santander playing through an injury that is impacting the only thing he does well. Another smart move by the Jays. He will be a negative WAR player this season and then in Spring Training 2026 we will read stories about how he played hurt all of 2025.

[Laika]

weird wording 

"his issues are helping him limit big swings which should help him make more contact" 

dude he has a .203 xBA and the highest K rate of his career 

what kind of senseless euphemism is this?

it smells like some Ross A bull

"we are excited that Anthony has the opportunity to progress into a different kind of hitter that has the chance to make more contact"

[Brownie19]

It certainly sounds like someone misunderstood what was said.  It would make more sense that he was trying to say the injuries are limiting his ability to swing big and thus he's focusing more on making solid contact (or something like that).

Santander is a leader type who just came here on a big deal. It seems likely that Santander is pushing to play through it, or perhaps it's just a pain tolerance thing and he can't hurt himself further (or the chances are low). 

Odd move to blame the organization for this situation when we really know very little about it (Glory).  You don't need to make up narratives to hate on this FO - there's lots of low lying fruit to grab man.

My takeaway is that he's playing hurt - that's why he can't hit.  That's a good thing IMO because it means he may not have falling off the proverbial cliff.

It's probably at the point where the Jays need to step in and tell Santander to hit the IL.  I think they've given him a chance to try and play through it and it's time to let him heal up.

[Laika]

If he's actually banged up, just IL him and bring Roden back for another stint. 

Santander playing hurt is actively hurting the team. He contributes nothing right now. 

[glory]

35 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

It certainly sounds like someone misunderstood what was said.  It would make more sense that he was trying to say the injuries are limiting his ability to swing big and thus he's focusing more on making solid contact (or something like that).

Santander is a leader type who just came here on a big deal. It seems likely that Santander is pushing to play through it, or perhaps it's just a pain tolerance thing and he can't hurt himself further (or the chances are low). 

Odd move to blame the organization for this situation when we really know very little about it (Glory).  You don't need to make up narratives to hate on this FO - there's lots of low lying fruit to grab man.

My takeaway is that he's playing hurt - that's why he can't hit.  That's a good thing IMO because it means he may not have falling off the proverbial cliff.

It's probably at the point where the Jays need to step in and tell Santander to hit the IL.  I think they've given him a chance to try and play through it and it's time to let him heal up.

If he’s hurt and he’s playing through it (leading to being one of the worst players in the league), while everyone knows he’s hurt, then at what point does the organization step in? If Tony was hurt and no one knew about it, then that’s a different story, but if injury is limiting the only thing he does well and the org just keeps running him out there, then what’s the upside for the team or the player?

[BB17]

1 hour ago, glory said:

If he’s hurt and he’s playing through it (leading to being one of the worst players in the league), while everyone knows he’s hurt, then at what point does the organization step in? If Tony was hurt and no one knew about it, then that’s a different story, but if injury is limiting the only thing he does well and the org just keeps running him out there, then what’s the upside for the team or the player?

Another dud in the Ross Atkins communication department. Its clear Santander isn't helping anyone while playing through the injury, he should be on the IL already. Its the FO job to do what's best for the org.

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, glory said:

If he’s hurt and he’s playing through it (leading to being one of the worst players in the league), while everyone knows he’s hurt, then at what point does the organization step in? If Tony was hurt and no one knew about it, then that’s a different story, but if injury is limiting the only thing he does well and the org just keeps running him out there, then what’s the upside for the team or the player?

 

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

Another dud in the Ross Atkins communication department. Its clear Santander isn't helping anyone while playing through the injury, he should be on the IL already. Its the FO job to do what's best for the org.

It certainly seems like these injuries are the type that feel good one day and not the next.  Takes 4-5 days off, feels better, then a few days later it doesn't feel as good.  And even when it does feel good, it would be pretty normal to suggest he just needs more at bats to get his timing back, but then as soon as he does, the injuries start barking at him again - or a new injury develops (I believe he's battling both a shoulder and hip injury).  Then you're constantly questioning if it's a slow start, if it's the injuries, if it's just him not getting into a groove.

This leads to a very frustrating situation and poor results.

We don't know when this started, what the injuries are or how much they are affecting him.  To sit on the sidelines and say "stupid organization - they f*cked this all up" is quite ignorant and shortsighted.

This kind of stuff happens regularly - here are some other players who are playing terrible this year.  Are all these organizations full of morons too?  

Texas - Semien, Adolis Garcia

Braves - Michael Harris, Albies

Red Sox - Trevor Story

Royal - Sal Perez, Massey, India

Dodgers - Conforto

Astros - Walker, Diaz

Giants - Adames

Brewers - Yelich

 

Lots of proven, established hitters/players who have been horrendous this year.  You can guarantee several of these guys aren't 100% healthy and they are going through a similar situation as Santander.  Players rarely play a large chunk of the season at 100% and teams are constantly trying to determine if they can work through it, or if they need to hit the IL and miss a bunch of time.  You don't need to blame someone for every bad thing that happens in baseball.

[Brownie19]

Kevin Gausman - Toronto Blue Jays (New Splitter Grip)

Oh, Kevin Gausman, how you drive me mad. I was a little down on Gausman last year because of the hard contact he has always allowed, but not nearly down on him as much as it turned out that I needed to be. I then spent the early part of spring training buying into a resurgence for Gausman because there were rumors he was adding a sinker or cutter to help protect his four-seam fastball. I took some late shares in early drafts, but then neither of those pitches showed up, and he had a 4.59 ERA and pedestrian 23% strikeout rate in his first nine games.

I figured this was going to be 2024 all over again, and I cut Gausman in a shallow league. Then, lo and behold, Gausman happened to “find” his old splitter after his poor start against the Rays and has now allowed one run on eight hits in his last 15 innings while striking out 15 and walking nobody. Cool.

Pitcher List

As you can see from the chart above, Gausman’s splitter in his start on Monday against the Rangers had 4.5 inches more vertical drop than before with less arm-side break. In essence, it moved more straight down, which is exactly how he had it moving in years past. “For whatever reason, my fingers want to have a mind of their own,” Gausman told The Athletic. “Kind of do whatever they want. So, you know, it’s just kind of reminding them to stay put.”

I certainly wish he had told them that a few weeks ago, but this version of Kevin Gausman with his long-lost splitter grip feels like it can be close to the 2023 version that posted a 3.16 ERA and 31% strikeout rate. Now, that version still had a 1.18 WHIP and gave up a lot of hard contact, so it’s not a perfect pitcher, but it’s an infinitely better version than we saw last year. Just keep in mind that splitter movement and location can come and go on a whim, and we’ve seen over the last year and a half that Gausman simply doesn’t have enough to be fantasy relevant if the splitter leaves him. Just cross your fingers for a happy reunion, but don’t be afraid to cut bait if the grip wanders away again.

[glory]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

 

It certainly seems like these injuries are the type that feel good one day and not the next.  Takes 4-5 days off, feels better, then a few days later it doesn't feel as good.  And even when it does feel good, it would be pretty normal to suggest he just needs more at bats to get his timing back, but then as soon as he does, the injuries start barking at him again - or a new injury develops (I believe he's battling both a shoulder and hip injury).  Then you're constantly questioning if it's a slow start, if it's the injuries, if it's just him not getting into a groove.

This leads to a very frustrating situation and poor results.

We don't know when this started, what the injuries are or how much they are affecting him.  To sit on the sidelines and say "stupid organization - they f*cked this all up" is quite ignorant and shortsighted.

This kind of stuff happens regularly - here are some other players who are playing terrible this year.  Are all these organizations full of morons too?  

Texas - Semien, Adolis Garcia

Braves - Michael Harris, Albies

Red Sox - Trevor Story

Royal - Sal Perez, Massey, India

Dodgers - Conforto

Astros - Walker, Diaz

Giants - Adames

Brewers - Yelich

Lots of proven, established hitters/players who have been horrendous this year.  You can guarantee several of these guys aren't 100% healthy and they are going through a similar situation as Santander.  Players rarely play a large chunk of the season at 100% and teams are constantly trying to determine if they can work through it, or if they need to hit the IL and miss a bunch of time.  You don't need to blame someone for every bad thing that happens in baseball.

You're arguing two different things. If Santander sucked and no one knew what the problem was, then that's different than "Anthony Santander has said that his shoulder/hip issues are helping him limit big swings", which is clearly an injury impacting a player's ability to do the only thing he does well (and why he got the contract in the first place). If all the players you listed were hurt, the org knew they were hurt, the org knew that they made adjustments to their swings to compensate for an injury, and still continued to play them to horrendous results, then yes, they would also get fairly criticized for it as well. If Tony was healthy and sucked, or it wasn't clear that he was hurt, then that's a different story. 

Just put him on the IL. Maybe that doesn't solve anything but throwing him out there everyday isn't helping either, especially if he's not hitting for power. Tony not hitting for power might be one of the worst players in the league. He literally doesn't provide value in any other way.

[Spanky__99]

Chris Black is a good follow, I liked his synopsis with his last 4 tweets on the rundown, who knows, it could just be noise as the fractions are so minimal. Interesting nonetheless.

[BatFlip]

25 minutes ago, glory said:

You're arguing two different things. If Santander sucked and no one knew what the problem was, then that's different than "Anthony Santander has said that his shoulder/hip issues are helping him limit big swings", which is clearly an injury impacting a player's ability to do the only thing he does well (and why he got the contract in the first place). If all the players you listed were hurt, the org knew they were hurt, the org knew that they made adjustments to their swings to compensate for an injury, and still continued to play them to horrendous results, then yes, they would also get fairly criticized for it as well. If Tony was healthy and sucked, or it wasn't clear that he was hurt, then that's a different story. 

Just put him on the IL. Maybe that doesn't solve anything but throwing him out there everyday isn't helping either, especially if he's not hitting for power. Tony not hitting for power might be one of the worst players in the league. He literally doesn't provide value in any other way.

Yeah. 

Tony without power is like Bo Bichette without contact.  No value.  He's not doing the team any favors working through an injury and it's up to the organization to have a tough discussion with him if he's determined to fight through it.

 

 

[Laika]

That's very interesting and depressing.

Finally we have the data to more specifically define why the Jays underperform on offense. We can put a finger on the systemic problem - the things that the Blue Jays have been intentionally or incidentally prioritizing that doesn't correlate optimally to runs scored. 

I mean we have known this problem for a few years, we just talked about it differently. It was obvious for a while that too many Jays would execute their A swing and have it result in a line drive or lower flyball to the opposite field - that is just not an efficient way to hit and produce given what we know in 2025. But maybe we all got too bogged down in groundball rates.

I was hoping that Popkins would be the impetus for them to get the ball out in front more, but I guess it hasn't had that effect on the players. 

When you look at the entirety of Toronto's hard hit balls, a pattern emerges. The Jays rank 29th in average attack angle on hard hit balls, and 29th in avg swing tilt. Meaning, even when they hit the ball hard, Jays are often doing it with flat bat paths, and catching it late.

Points of reference... MLB avg on hard hit balls: 32° tilt, 9° attack Dodgers: 35° tilt, 11° attack Jays: 29° tilt, 7° attack

 

Intuitively, this all makes sense: If you're gonna hit the ball hard, you want to do it on the upswing a bit. League-wide numbers going back last couple years back this up.... It's far more productive to hit a ball hard with an attack angle >10° compared to <10°

 

 

And that table is where you get to the answer to our original question: How can a team that hits the ball hard as often as the Jays score so few runs?

 

 

 

Worth pointing out: While last night's examples are Guerrero & he's prob primary factor, it's not exclusive to him. Santander & Bichette each have 5° avg attack angle on their hard hit balls. Wagner, Roden, Heineman, Straw, Clase, Gimenez, Barger, Kirk all below MLB avg

 

In fact, the only 2 Jays comfortably above the avg attack angle threshold on hard hit balls are the 2 Jays exceeding expectations offensively the most this year: Varsho & Springer.

[hanton]

Vlady is dead last in Attack Angle, dead last.  1 degree.  Bo is not far behind.

"direct to the ball"

thanks Mattingly

[hanton]

15 minutes ago, Laika said:

That's very interesting and depressing.

Finally we have the data to more specifically define why the Jays underperform on offense. We can put a finger on the systemic problem - the things that the Blue Jays have been intentionally or incidentally prioritizing that doesn't correlate optimally to runs scored. 

I mean we have known this problem for a few years, we just talked about it differently. It was obvious for a while that too many Jays would execute their A swing and have it result in a line drive or lower flyball to the opposite field - that is just not an efficient way to hit and produce given what we know in 2025. But maybe we all got too bogged down in groundball rates.

I was hoping that Popkins would be the impetus for them to get the ball out in front more, but I guess it hasn't had that effect on the players. 

When you look at the entirety of Toronto's hard hit balls, a pattern emerges. The Jays rank 29th in average attack angle on hard hit balls, and 29th in avg swing tilt. Meaning, even when they hit the ball hard, Jays are often doing it with flat bat paths, and catching it late.

 

Points of reference... MLB avg on hard hit balls: 32° tilt, 9° attack Dodgers: 35° tilt, 11° attack Jays: 29° tilt, 7° attack

 

Intuitively, this all makes sense: If you're gonna hit the ball hard, you want to do it on the upswing a bit. League-wide numbers going back last couple years back this up.... It's far more productive to hit a ball hard with an attack angle >10° compared to <10°

 

 

And that table is where you get to the answer to our original question: How can a team that hits the ball hard as often as the Jays score so few runs?

 

 

 

Worth pointing out: While last night's examples are Guerrero & he's prob primary factor, it's not exclusive to him. Santander & Bichette each have 5° avg attack angle on their hard hit balls. Wagner, Roden, Heineman, Straw, Clase, Gimenez, Barger, Kirk all below MLB avg

 

In fact, the only 2 Jays comfortably above the avg attack angle threshold on hard hit balls are the 2 Jays exceeding expectations offensively the most this year: Varsho & Springer.

Yes definitely already knew this years ago but now we have the numbers to prove it, I'm sure teams are now working on assimilating these new stats, as for Popkins I think it will take time for the messaging to work it's way where you actually see a difference on the field.  

[John_Havok]

28 minutes ago, Laika said:

That's very interesting and depressing.

Finally we have the data to more specifically define why the Jays underperform on offense. We can put a finger on the systemic problem - the things that the Blue Jays have been intentionally or incidentally prioritizing that doesn't correlate optimally to runs scored. 

I mean we have known this problem for a few years, we just talked about it differently. It was obvious for a while that too many Jays would execute their A swing and have it result in a line drive or lower flyball to the opposite field - that is just not an efficient way to hit and produce given what we know in 2025. But maybe we all got too bogged down in groundball rates.

I was hoping that Popkins would be the impetus for them to get the ball out in front more, but I guess it hasn't had that effect on the players. 

When you look at the entirety of Toronto's hard hit balls, a pattern emerges. The Jays rank 29th in average attack angle on hard hit balls, and 29th in avg swing tilt. Meaning, even when they hit the ball hard, Jays are often doing it with flat bat paths, and catching it late.

 

Points of reference... MLB avg on hard hit balls: 32° tilt, 9° attack Dodgers: 35° tilt, 11° attack Jays: 29° tilt, 7° attack

 

Intuitively, this all makes sense: If you're gonna hit the ball hard, you want to do it on the upswing a bit. League-wide numbers going back last couple years back this up.... It's far more productive to hit a ball hard with an attack angle >10° compared to <10°

 

 

And that table is where you get to the answer to our original question: How can a team that hits the ball hard as often as the Jays score so few runs?

 

 

 

Worth pointing out: While last night's examples are Guerrero & he's prob primary factor, it's not exclusive to him. Santander & Bichette each have 5° avg attack angle on their hard hit balls. Wagner, Roden, Heineman, Straw, Clase, Gimenez, Barger, Kirk all below MLB avg

 

In fact, the only 2 Jays comfortably above the avg attack angle threshold on hard hit balls are the 2 Jays exceeding expectations offensively the most this year: Varsho & Springer.

This clearly points to a systemic issue rooted in several possible causes... 

#1 The Jays analytics department wasn't using attack angle in their scouting processes or high performance center, and as such, most of the hitters resultingly suck at this. 

#2 The Jays analytics department is fully aware of this, but trying to zig while the rest of the league zags. 

#3 The analytics/scouting dept is fully aware of this when scouting, but wanted to prioritize the contact skill/lower attack angle to start with a base skill of contact, and try and teach the better attack angle as they developed their hitter to try and preserve more contact while also hitting for power ..... and they've just failed miserably at it. 

 

My guess is #3. Popkins has already had success changing Varsho's attack angle we've seen that from that article that came out the other day. Springer also said he's reverted to a previous approach instead of trying to hit singles - so perhaps his attack angle has increased as a result. 

It could very well be that the Popkins teachings have not yet reached the other player's ears, or it's also possible some of the players just haven't been able to make, or are resistant to change because of their track records of success to this point.

[Terminator]

This attack angle thing could explain our offensive woes but I would need to look into it more.

But even so, a lot of this is probably just plain bad luck.

• Team xWOBA is .329, good for 11th in MLB.
• wOBA is .306, which is 18th.
• wOBA with RISP is .289, which is 23rd.

Schneider brought it up yesterday, but we are underperforming our xBA by nearly 20 points (.262 xBA vs. .244 BA).  So stuff like that is happening and then compounding the problem is the struggles with RISP which is probably just more bad luck.

But even just eyeballing stuff from the lineup to general statcast musings, the lineup should be decent. With Barger, Lukes and Varsho becoming regulars again, the only guys on the team that don't have a bunch of red on their statcast page is Taters and Clement.

 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

it could just be noise as the fractions are so minimal

I said the same Term, hard to say at this point.

[John_Havok]

12 minutes ago, Terminator said:

This attack angle thing could explain our offensive woes but I would need to look into it more.

But even so, a lot of this is probably just plain bad luck.

• Team xWOBA is .329, good for 11th in MLB.
• wOBA is .306, which is 18th.
• wOBA with RISP is .289, which is 23rd.

Schneider brought it up yesterday, but we are underperforming our xBA by nearly 20 points (.262 xBA vs. .244 BA).  So stuff like that is happening and then compounding the problem is the struggles with RISP which are probably just more bad luck.

But even just eyeballing stuff from the lineup to general statcast musings, the lineup should be decent. With Barger, Lukes and Varsho becoming regulars again, the only guys on the team that don't have a bunch of red on their statcast page is Taters and Clement.

 

Solid points, but...

If better attack angle equals more hits, extra base hits and HRs assuming EV remains constant...couldn't that problem be largely responsible for the discrepancies?

[Spanky__99]

3 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Solid points, but...

If better attack angle equals more hits, extra base hits and HRs assuming EV remains constant...couldn't that problem be largely responsible for the discrepancies?

The attack angle is off by 2 degrees to being the Dodgers, I'm leaning more on statistical noise. The room for error is minute, I'd rather listen to the expected data then that finding by Chris Black, it's very interesting nonetheless.

[John_Havok]

Just now, Spanky__99 said:

The attack angle is off by 2 degrees to being the Dodgers, I'm leaning more on statistical noise. The room for error is minute, I'd rather listen to the expected data then that finding by Chris Black, it's very interesting nonetheless.

I hear what you're saying spanks, but 2 degrees is a pretty big deal when it comes to hitting. Granted I'm making some assumptions, but we know that expected stats dont take spray angle into account. Hypothetically, if a change in the hitters attack angle results in a better ability to pull the ball combined with more loft ... squeaking out that extra HR per however many PAs would add up over time. Ditto in turning a few line drive outs per week into line drive doubles. Combine that over 2-3 hitters and it's probably a decent output change overall. 

[Brownie19]

Baseball Savants tracks all the data on approach angle, tilt, etc. now and have little stick figures to help illustrate it.  It's really cool.  It would be interesting to know if the Jays have been targeting or preaching flatter swing paths.

To be honest, that seems like a logical reaction to the "high fastball" era we've been in for the past 5-6 years.  It could also just be noise, as I believe prospects like Davis Schneider had a much more uppercut swing approach (as an example).

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

Solid points, but...

If better attack angle equals more hits, extra base hits and HRs assuming EV remains constant...couldn't that problem be largely responsible for the discrepancies?

I'm skeptical that attack angles would be responsible for the discrepancies.

After all, isn't attack angle (which is basically just process) just baked into the launch angle (the result) anyway?

And since xStats use launch angle and exit velo, I'm not sure attack angle is providing that much more insight into why the team's offense is struggling in comparison to its xStats. 

Further to that, even though we lead the league on 10 degree or less attack angle on hard hit balls, the expected numbers on those balls is still damn good. I'd rather be 1st on less than 10 degrees (keep in mind that's still a shitload of production-it's just not as good as it could be) and 2nd to last on above ten degrees, then to be a team that is bottom 5 in both.

Then there is other batted ball data and especially non-batted ball data (3rd fewest strikeouts, 12th in walks) that would show the Jays offense being better than 25th in the league in runs per game. 

[John_Havok]

25 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I'm skeptical that attack angles would be responsible for the discrepancies.

After all, isn't attack angle (which is basically just process) just baked into the launch angle (the result) anyway?

And since xStats use launch angle and exit velo, I'm not sure attack angle is providing that much more insight into why the team's offense is struggling in comparison to its xStats. 

Further to that, even though we lead the league on 10 degree or less attack angle on hard hit balls, the expected numbers on those balls is still damn good. I'd rather be 1st on less than 10 degrees (keep in mind that's still a shitload of production-it's just not as good as it could be) and 2nd to last on above ten degrees, then to be a team that is bottom 5 in both.

Then there is other batted ball data and especially non-batted ball data (3rd fewest strikeouts, 12th in walks) that would show the Jays offense being better than 25th in the league in runs per game. 

So I don't think Chris Black is telling us anything that we already don't know. Our launch angle isn't ideal, we don't barrel enough balls, etc. If we want to fix those things, then by all means try and perfect the attack angle. But it's not a good stat to use to show us why we are 25th in runs per game. 

I must not be understanding what you're saying here. Let me re-phrase a bit. 

Attack angle is the vertical angle the sweet spot of the bat is traveling at the contact point, while launch angle is the vertical angle at which the ball leaves the bat after contact.

Attack angle correlates to launch angle. The steeper the attack angle, the higher the launch angle... generally. We know that launch angle is an important factor in extra-base hits.  Ergo... better attack angle, should lead to better launch angle, which means with the same batspeed and EV, more loft and more extra base hits, hence actual wOBA should creep closer to xWOBA over time as well. 

[Terminator]

26 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Ergo... better attack angle, should lead to better launch angle, which means with the same batspeed and EV, more loft and more extra base hits, hence actual wOBA should creep closer to xWOBA over time as well. 

Why would better attack angles help improve wOBA moreso than xwOBA? Wouldn't better attack angles improve both wOBA and xwOBA?

 

 

[Terminator]

True: Improved attack angles would lead to better offense

False: Poor attack angles explain why we are 11th in xwOBA (pretty solid) and 25th in runs per game (horrible)

[hanton]

6 minutes ago, Terminator said:

True: Improved attack angles would lead to better offense

False: Poor attack angles explain why we are 11th in xwOBA (pretty solid) and 25th in runs per game (horrible)

Yes.

Baseball Savant has already done most (all) of the work for us, Ideal Attack Angle% is between 5 and 20 degrees; "Swings in this range produce the most value for a hitter"

[BTS]

I don't think the question Terminator raised has really been addressed. He's saying that if a) the reason why you want an ideal attack angle is to get an ideal launch angle, and b) launch angle is baked into xwOBA then poor attack angle isn't responsible for the discrepancy between wOBA and xwOBA. 

[Laika]

50 minutes ago, BTS said:

I don't think the question Terminator raised has really been addressed. He's saying that if a) the reason why you want an ideal attack angle is to get an ideal launch angle, and b) launch angle is baked into xwOBA then poor attack angle isn't responsible for the discrepancy between wOBA and xwOBA. 

I wonder if the same launch angle isn't always the same ball flight 

Like, an 18 degree swing then results in an 18 degree trajectory is a squared up ball. Sweet spot 100%.

An 18 degree trajectory from a 1 degree attack angle is not exactly right on the sweet spot. Probably a bit above. Different spin? Not as squared up?