General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, connorp2 said:

The only thing he did better was put more out. Went from consistently good power guy 27-30 HR guy over a full season, to putting out 44 in contract year. The next year he’s nowhere close, likely won’t touch that number again. We’re all free to draw our own conclusions.

You’re free to draw your own conclusions, they just tend to be wrong 90% of the time. 

Throw enough s*** at the wall, some sticks. Hard to remember half the crap you ramble on about.

[jaysblue]

7 hours ago, max silver said:

Santander is kinda like a switch hitting version of Joe Carter. You can reasonably expect 30'ish home runs, 90-100 RBI's, below average but passable corner outfield defense, low OBP's etc.

Lets hope he hits a walk-off World Series home run as well haha

[hanton]

There is only 1 team above .500 in the ALE

[connorp2]

10 hours ago, Stangstag said:

You’re free to draw your own conclusions, they just tend to be wrong 90% of the time. 

Throw enough s*** at the wall, some sticks. Hard to remember half the crap you ramble on about.

I’m usually right about guys far sooner than most here. Your emotions and fandom blind you to players like Danny Jansen and most of their AAAA players, Brownie Troop (or Troupe, eh) leader suggesting 29 is someone’s physical prime belies established science. Also, you should’ve posted this on a day where Riley G didn’t take the Jays to pound town. 

[jaysblue]

Yeah I don't think Santander will come close to hitting 44 HR's again and wasn't expecting that even at the time he signed his contract with the Jays. Expect him to be a 30-35 HR bat here, and that's fine with the contract the Jays gave him. 

Just gotta hope he doesn't turnout to be an Eddie Rosario and disappear off the face of the earth. 

[mphenhef]

On 5/16/2025 at 2:25 PM, Jonn said:

I never really liked the Santander signing but that’s basically a contract you can bury at some point. He’s just been really f***ing bad so far. Probably should move him down. Him hitting third is not ideal.

Yep, this is turning into the situation with Springer the last couple of years where they are taking far too long to move him down.  Give him a month maybe to get going before considering it but we’re over a quarter through the season now.

[max silver]

3 hours ago, mphenhef said:

Yep, this is turning into the situation with Springer the last couple of years where they are taking far too long to move him down.  Give him a month maybe to get going before considering it but we’re over a quarter through the season now.

Santander was hitting much better for a few weeks preceding the shoulder injury. Hopefully he can rediscover this form at the plate in relatively short order.

[max silver]

Something that was brought up in last night's broadcast was Varsho's reduced throwing speed from the outfield. This was something I had been tracking coming off of his shoulder surgery. He hasn't made enough throws from the outfield yet to qualify for a Statcast average, but the available data is pretty alarming. His maximum throw speed so far is only 74.3 MPH up to this point compared to previous maxes in the 92-93 MPH range, whereas his typical average velocity was around 84 MPH in recent seasons. For comparison the worst average throwing speed produced from the outfield this season is the 79.9 MPH from Kyle Isbel. It's entirely possible that Varsho now has the weakest outfield arm in the sport. Thankfully he's appeared to hit another level in terms of outfield jumps, but the arm will likely lead to opposition baserunners eventually taking a pile of extra bases.

[Spanky99]

30 minutes ago, max silver said:

Something that was brought up in last night's broadcast was Varsho's reduced throwing speed from the outfield. This was something I had been tracking coming off of his shoulder surgery. He hasn't made enough throws from the outfield yet to qualify for a Statcast average, but the available data is pretty alarming. His maximum throw speed so far is only 74.3 MPH up to this point compared to previous maxes in the 92-93 MPH range, whereas his typical average velocity was around 84 MPH in recent seasons. For comparison the worst average throwing speed produced from the outfield this season is the 79.9 MPH from Kyle Isbel. It's entirely possible that Varsho now has the weakest outfield arm in the sport. Thankfully he's appeared to hit another level in terms of outfield jumps, but the arm will likely lead to opposition baserunners eventually taking a pile of extra bases.

I wouldn't worry about that as of yet, as you said he's just coming off surgery, if he comes back say next season like that than it becomes an issue for him. I'm sure he'll get stronger the further he gets from surgery. Certainly something to track though.

[max silver]

 

I wouldn't worry about that as of yet, as you said he's just coming off surgery, if he comes back say next season like that than it becomes an issue for him. I'm sure he'll get stronger the further he gets from surgery. Certainly something to track though.

If I recall correctly pitchers who undergo rotator cuff surgeries tend to lose velocity as a result, so it's not surprising that Varsho is experiencing a large dropoff. I looked up a study and the degree of recovery largely depends on the severity of the tear. The study suggested that in pitchers they eventually improved over a course of 3 years, but none of them fully returned to prior levels of performance. How this corresponds to a position player with far less demand on the shoulder is a separate topic however.

[polar bear]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Santander was hitting much better for a few weeks preceding the shoulder injury. Hopefully he can rediscover this form at the plate in relatively short order.

Much better, when?

[max silver]

8 minutes ago, polar bear said:

Much better, when?

He had a 10 game stretch in late April/early May where he appeared to be hitting his stride. In this sample over about a week and a half or so he hit 3 home runs and produced a 122 wRC+. He hasn't been able to replicate this type of production in the small sample of games since he tweaked his shoulder.

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Something that was brought up in last night's broadcast was Varsho's reduced throwing speed from the outfield. This was something I had been tracking coming off of his shoulder surgery. He hasn't made enough throws from the outfield yet to qualify for a Statcast average, but the available data is pretty alarming. His maximum throw speed so far is only 74.3 MPH up to this point compared to previous maxes in the 92-93 MPH range, whereas his typical average velocity was around 84 MPH in recent seasons. For comparison the worst average throwing speed produced from the outfield this season is the 79.9 MPH from Kyle Isbel. It's entirely possible that Varsho now has the weakest outfield arm in the sport. Thankfully he's appeared to hit another level in terms of outfield jumps, but the arm will likely lead to opposition baserunners eventually taking a pile of extra bases.

I havent seen enough games with him back to judge, but has he had much cause to air out any throws yet?

[John_Havok]

Burr and Swanson both with much better 2nd outings at Buffalo

Swanson 1.2 IP, no runs,hits or walks allowed with 1K

Burr, 1.1 IP, no runs, no hits 1 walk 2 Ks

[max silver]

Just now, John_Havok said:

Burr and Swanson both with much better 2nd outings at Buffalo

Swanson 1.2 IP, no runs,hits or walks allowed with 1K

Burr, 1.1 IP, no runs, no hits 1 walk 2 Ks

Another positive development was Ryan Jennings striking out the side in his AAA debut. Throwing strikes looks to be a bit of an issue based on the walk rate but he gives the team a chance to actually feature two home grown relievers out of the pen for what is likely the first time in this front office's entire tenure. 

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

I havent seen enough games with him back to judge, but has he had much cause to air out any throws yet?

Yeah could very easily be SSS noise

[max silver]

32 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Yeah could very easily be SSS noise

That's possible, but Varsho is up to about 40 throws now, and it feels a little unlikely that he's intentionally lobbed every one of those back with minimum effort vs simply having less arm strength to start with. Perhaps he's trying to save the shoulder a bit by pulling back on the throwing effort or something of that sort. 

[Ryu In My House]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Burr and Swanson both with much better 2nd outings at Buffalo

Swanson 1.2 IP, no runs,hits or walks allowed with 1K

Burr, 1.1 IP, no runs, no hits 1 walk 2 Ks

I think this would be an optimal time to extend Swanson. By most accounts, he likes the org, and would likely sign a fairly reasonable extension.

 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Ryu In My House said:

I think this would be an optimal time to extend Swanson. By most accounts, he likes the org, and would likely sign a fairly reasonable extension.

 

That could essentially be like setting a bunch of money on fire if he doesn't successfully return to his previous form. 

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, Ryu In My House said:

I think this would be an optimal time to extend Swanson. By most accounts, he likes the org, and would likely sign a fairly reasonable extension.

 

He's the Green replacement starting in 2026 hopefully 

[jaysblue]

19 hours ago, Ryu In My House said:

I think this would be an optimal time to extend Swanson. By most accounts, he likes the org, and would likely sign a fairly reasonable extension.

 

You don't need to sign Swanson to a multi-year extension at all right now lol. He likely would re-sign here on a cheap one-year deal anyways to build up his value. You want to see him pitch 60 or so innings in relief over a full season first before offering him any kind of multi-year extension.

[Laika]

21 hours ago, Ryu In My House said:

I think this would be an optimal time to extend Swanson. By most accounts, he likes the org, and would likely sign a fairly reasonable extension.

 

Extend him on a minor league deal? Sure 

[max silver]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

You don't need to sign Swanson to a multi-year extension at all right now lol. He likely would re-sign here on a cheap one-year deal anyways to build up his value. You want to see him pitch 60 or so innings in relief over a full season first before offering him any kind of multi-year extension.

Swanson feels like a Tommy John surgery candidate waiting to happen after the repeated forearm/elbow issues.

[Terminator]

On 5/18/2025 at 10:04 AM, John_Havok said:

Burr and Swanson both with much better 2nd outings at Buffalo

Swanson 1.2 IP, no runs,hits or walks allowed with 1K

Burr, 1.1 IP, no runs, no hits 1 walk 2 Ks

The bullpen is going to be stacked if those two come back and perform. We will probably dump Urethra and option Fisher.

[BB17]

On 5/18/2025 at 9:52 AM, max silver said:

Something that was brought up in last night's broadcast was Varsho's reduced throwing speed from the outfield. This was something I had been tracking coming off of his shoulder surgery. He hasn't made enough throws from the outfield yet to qualify for a Statcast average, but the available data is pretty alarming. His maximum throw speed so far is only 74.3 MPH up to this point compared to previous maxes in the 92-93 MPH range, whereas his typical average velocity was around 84 MPH in recent seasons. For comparison the worst average throwing speed produced from the outfield this season is the 79.9 MPH from Kyle Isbel. It's entirely possible that Varsho now has the weakest outfield arm in the sport. Thankfully he's appeared to hit another level in terms of outfield jumps, but the arm will likely lead to opposition baserunners eventually taking a pile of extra bases.

You probably just have to live with the result of him losing a few runs with the arm. At least the range makes up for it. If Straw is in there at the same time maybe you move Varsho to LF but that could be a case of it not being worth the hassle/such limited upside for the trouble of it.

[BB17]

23 hours ago, Ryu In My House said:

I think this would be an optimal time to extend Swanson. By most accounts, he likes the org, and would likely sign a fairly reasonable extension.

 

Its not even a given he's better than a guy like Fisher lol. I don't think I'd even sign him to 1/5 given the injury concerns. He was dogshit last year even when he did pitch.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

The bullpen is going to be stacked if those two come back and perform. We will probably dump Urethra and option Fisher.

I think there's a very good chance that Fisher is better than both of Swanson and Burr.

[max silver]

7 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Its not even a given he's better than a guy like Fisher lol. I don't think I'd even sign him to 1/5 given the injury concerns. He was dogshit last year even when he did pitch.

Swanson had a much better second half, albeit with a higher FIP due to allowing a few too many home runs. Having said that to my eyes in the early going Fisher looks like he may be a very good reliever this season and deserves an extended look at the major league level.

[Terminator]

40 minutes ago, max silver said:

I think there's a very good chance that Fisher is better than both of Swanson and Burr.

Definitely possible and he might be better than Green too but Green and Swanson and Burr don't have any options. 

[max silver]

11 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Definitely possible and he might be better than Green too but Green and Swanson and Burr don't have any options. 

Yeah unfortunately he's likely to be the odd man out once Swanson and Burr are ready to return. The team can likely bury these guys in the minors for as long as possible if necessary but eventually a decision will need to be made.