Around Baseball 2025

[Jimcanuck]

20 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

I totally get this mindset and the logic behind it, don't get me wrong. But the Tigers are realistically not a poverty franchise in a small market. They can and should afford to throw big bucks around to the likes of Skubal, and not be totally financially hampered to still make other big moves payroll wise. I actually think they're in a perfect position where most of their talent is pre-arb or early arb with some good prospects coming up, no real albatross contracts aside from the disaster that was the Javier Baez signing.

Tigers are mid-market.  Still would be quite risk averse and signing Skubal for 8 / $300 or whatever would give them pause.  If a team like the Dodgers rich in prospects and young MLB will give up a haul for him, of course you avoid the high risk and make the move.

[Jonn]

1 minute ago, philly30 said:

Schwarber signing is terrible, Phillies screwed for years

Why? He’s only 32 and has elite power hitter and on base threat. He’s in better shape now than he has been at any point in his career. He’s not even fat anymore.

[Jimcanuck]

12 minutes ago, thatoneguy said:

Just a reminder that without Ohtani's absurd contract structure, this wouldn't be possible for the Dodgers.

How so?  Are you sure you understand how deferrals work?

[philly30]

3 minutes ago, Jonn said:

Why? He’s only 32 and has elite power hitter and on base threat. He’s in better shape now than he has been at any point in his career. He’s not even fat anymore.

Problem is they really have no flexibility money wise, Harper is not as good , A mess in the outfield, will lose Suarez most likely. May lose Realmuto and have no good options in the minors. 

[thatoneguy]

10 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

How so?  Are you sure you understand how deferrals work?

I've read this quite a few times: https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-deal-deferrals-explained

New CBA needs to limit the percentage of a contract that can be deferred, amongst other things.

[Jimcanuck]

5 minutes ago, thatoneguy said:

I've read this quite a few times: https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-deal-deferrals-explained

New CBA needs to limit the percentage of a contract that can be deferred, amongst other things.

What the article doesn't say is:

Per the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), teams are required to place money owed for deferred salaries into an escrow account or a form of trust fund.

So each year, the deferred money earned by Ohtani has to be transferred into an escrow account.  The savings to the Dodgers from deferred money is relatively minor, and is essentially the interest earned until the date the money in the escrow account must be transferred to Ohtani.

 

[Orgfiller]

23 minutes ago, Jonn said:

Why? He’s only 32 and has elite power hitter and on base threat. He’s in better shape now than he has been at any point in his career. He’s not even fat anymore.

Because he's a DH. If the power/bat speed declines even a little bit due to expected aging, then you're tying up $30M AAV to a guy that is literally one of the worst defenders in the sport. It's not like him improving his conditioning means all of a sudden you can play him in the outfield every now and then, he's f***ing horrendous and already is at 14th percentile sprint speed at age 32. This is already a guy whose profile can swing precipitously to one end if age related decline hits, really living on the edge with that K rate.

When Kyle Schwarber isn't putting up career years offensively, he's basically about as good as Anthony Santander from 2022-2024, and that guy got ~5/70 on the open market. Schwarber is better than Santander was then, but not by that much, and certainly not for double the price. This is George Springer money for a guy with the tenth of the athleticism that George Springer has, and even more expensive per year!

[Jays24]

23 minutes ago, thatoneguy said:

Just a reminder that without Ohtani's absurd contract structure, this wouldn't be possible for the Dodgers.

But theyll get screwed during the years Ohtani's contract is on the books and hes retired at least lol

[Spanky__99]

24 minutes ago, philly30 said:

Problem is they really have no flexibility money wise, Harper is not as good , A mess in the outfield, will lose Suarez most likely. May lose Realmuto and have no good options in the minors. 

If a big chunk of that money is a signing bonus and a minimal payment this season, they can flex, I like that they're trying to win now, there's no time like the present. That contract is quite a bit at his age. Pray he ages like Ortiz. 🤪

[Orgfiller]

1 minute ago, Jays24 said:

But theyll get screwed during the years Ohtani's contract is on the books and hes retired at least lol

Not really unless they pull a Bobby Bonilla and get themselves into a ponzi scheme. Every team that has handed out deferrals is already putting that money somewhere each year and just accruing interest on it until it's time to pay it out.

[Jays24]

8 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Not really unless they pull a Bobby Bonilla and get themselves into a ponzi scheme. Every team that has handed out deferrals is already putting that money somewhere each year and just accruing interest on it until it's time to pay it out.

But theres a chance we get a salary cap and having Ohtani's deal on the books during those years will hurt the Dodgers ability to spend

[Jimcanuck]

6 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

But theres a chance we get a salary cap and having Ohtani's deal on the books during those years will hurt the Dodgers ability to spend

Nah once Ohtani deal ends in 2033, none of the money counts against the cap.  The value of the contract is getting counted (including deferrals) every year until 2033.

[glory]

Sounds like the Orioles had the same offer to Schwarber as the Phillies. Maybe they could be a suitor for Tucker. 

[Spanky__99]

Salary Cap??? 🤔🤣💀

[Spanky__99]

10 minutes ago, glory said:

Sounds like the Orioles had the same offer to Schwarber as the Phillies. Maybe they could be a suitor for Tucker. 

Nice job by the O's on making the Phillies pay. 

[Jimcanuck]

So ultimately the trade of Chris Sale to the Braves netted the Red Sox the Angels #25 prospect, a guy named Isaiah Jackson.

[jaysblue]

Not that crazy about the Schwarber deal but he has become a fan favourite in Philly and fits that ballpark nicely. Can he repeat his 2025 season offensively? You're pretty much paying him based on that. 

Phillies better hope he ages like Ortiz. Otherwise, like some have said he's a similar bat to Santander from 2022-2024 where he's a 2ish+ WAR player. 5 years is also a lot for a player of his type. 

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, Orgfiller said:

Because he's a DH. If the power/bat speed declines even a little bit due to expected aging, then you're tying up $30M AAV to a guy that is literally one of the worst defenders in the sport. It's not like him improving his conditioning means all of a sudden you can play him in the outfield every now and then, he's f***ing horrendous and already is at 14th percentile sprint speed at age 32. This is already a guy whose profile can swing precipitously to one end if age related decline hits, really living on the edge with that K rate.

When Kyle Schwarber isn't putting up career years offensively, he's basically about as good as Anthony Santander from 2022-2024, and that guy got ~5/70 on the open market. Schwarber is better than Santander was then, but not by that much, and certainly not for double the price. This is George Springer money for a guy with the tenth of the athleticism that George Springer has, and even more expensive per year!

Exactly lol. And Jonn has been screaming from the rooftops that we should dump Santander because he sucks. Well, Schwarber is probably a tick in batspeed away from being a 110ish wRC+ DH.

30 mil for 5 years is gross

[Stangstag]

57 minutes ago, glory said:

Sounds like the Orioles had the same offer to Schwarber as the Phillies. Maybe they could be a suitor for Tucker. 

Highly doubt it, on both fronts. I’ll believe it when I see it but they haven’t signed any of the A or even B tier free agents in like, a decade.

[G-Snarls]

 

 

[G-Snarls]

Full 2026 lottery draft order:

 

Here is where each team will pick in the first round of the 2026 Draft, with numbers in parentheses denoting where the clubs ranked in the lottery odds and their odds of winning the top overall pick:

 

1. White Sox (1, 27.7%)

2. Rays (7, 3.03%)

3. Twins (2, 22.2%)

4. Giants (12, 1.0%)

5. Pirates (3, 16.8%)

6. Royals (13, 0.8%)

7. Orioles (4, 9.24%)

8. A’s (5, 6.6%)

9. Braves (6, 4.5%)

10. Rockies (16, 0.0% - ineligible for lottery pick)

11. Nationals (17, 0.0%- ineligible for lottery pick)

12. Angels (18, 0.0% - ineligible for lottery pick)

13. Cardinals (8, 2.3%)

14. Marlins (9, 1.8%)

15. D-backs (10, 1.5%)

16. Rangers (11, 1.3%)

17. Astros (15, 0.3%)

[G-Snarls]

Rays and Giants got lucky AF

[mphenhef]

3 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

What the article doesn't say is:

Per the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), teams are required to place money owed for deferred salaries into an escrow account or a form of trust fund.

So each year, the deferred money earned by Ohtani has to be transferred into an escrow account.  The savings to the Dodgers from deferred money is relatively minor, and is essentially the interest earned until the date the money in the escrow account must be transferred to Ohtani.

 

After year 2, so it essentially gave them flexibility in the first two years after Ohtani signed.

[BTS]

4 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

I think they'd be out of their minds to not deal him if they have no intention of meeting his contract demands. With that said, they're a pretty mediocre team who happens to still contend thanks to existing in the worst division in the league, can they really afford to lose someone of his calibre with a relatively exciting prospect pipeline coming through the ranks?

Something to be said about making the homegrown ace the face of your franchise for the foreseeable future, and hoping that can both instill a winning mentality in the upcoming younger players, and signal to FAs that they're serious about contending.

It's honestly pathetic that Detroit has seemingly conceded that they won't sign him. They've been good enough that he'd likely stay if the money is there. So pay him the money. If he stays healthy he's on track to be a first ballot HoFer. Lock him in and people in Detroit will still be talking about watching Tarik Skubal's career 50-60 years from now. Detroit isn't even a small market. 

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

It's honestly pathetic that Detroit has seemingly conceded that they won't sign him. They've been good enough that he'd likely stay if the money is there. So pay him the money. If he stays healthy he's on track to be a first ballot HoFer. Lock him in and people in Detroit will still be talking about watching Tarik Skubal's career 50-60 years from now. Detroit isn't even a small market. 

They just made it to the ALDS, they've got a solid young team, clean books (outside of Baez being under contract the next two years), a really good farm system and the best pitcher in baseball.

Extend the man and they'll win that sh1thole division a guaranteed 5 times out of the next 10 years. 

[thatoneguy]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

It's honestly pathetic that Detroit has seemingly conceded that they won't sign him. They've been good enough that he'd likely stay if the money is there. So pay him the money. If he stays healthy he's on track to be a first ballot HoFer. Lock him in and people in Detroit will still be talking about watching Tarik Skubal's career 50-60 years from now. Detroit isn't even a small market. 

They get to watch the next Verlander or Scherzer go elsewhere and win the World Series.

[L54]

Okay Dodgers need to fuçk off with the sign and trade bullshìt

[Spanky__99]

3 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Rays and Giants got lucky AF

Royals too.

[Spanky__99]

10 minutes ago, L54 said:

Okay Dodgers need to fuçk off with the sign and trade bullshìt

Wow... this should be interesting. They're going to give up a f*ck tonne... 3 - Peat incoming.

[Stangstag]

20 minutes ago, L54 said:

Okay Dodgers need to fuçk off with the sign and trade bullshìt

Ayo what

 

If its the Dodgers they can eat s***. If its the Yanks…. Ugh Spencer Jones is NOT good Detroit don’t fall for it