Vladdy/Bo Extension or Trade Discussion

[BigCecil]

Yeah I agree completely. If I were Vlad's agent, would be suggesting the same thing. Wait until Soto signs before agreeing to anything.

 

Its simple for Vlad. His risk is injury or a season more like '23 in '25. If Jays put enough term/AAV in an overpay on the table to offset that risk he would sign here long term.

 

Otherwise, he goes to market. Soto isn't a good comparable but if he gets huge money, Vlad's agent will push towards that ceiling over whatever another 1B like Alonso gets.

 

The last 4 seasons his lowest xwOBA is .351 Even though he adds so little D value, at 26 thats going to be tantalizing for some GMs

[Olerud363]

I donÂ’t think thatÂ’s determined, no. To date for sure, in terms of consistency. You canÂ’t sip the Vlad juice all the way yet, but he puts up a 1.000 OPS next year, I think the playing field is much more level

 

It also doesn't matter what fWAR alone says (for contract). It matters how a couple of rich teams view them going forward. If he performs well next year his list of comparables through age 26 will include Cabrera and Manny Ramirez.

 

What are the historical precedents? Two players who look very close with traditional stats, but fWAR is 2-3 high for one? Are they compensated for that difference, if the difference is mostly walks and a little defense and baserunning?

[Olerud363]

What does that even mean? You can't just chuck his skillset out the window, it's exactly why he's that much better. IDK

 

Soto is way better, but I don't know if that difference will be reflected in the contracts they both get. Maybe it will the industry is getting smarter.

 

I guess the danger is that it ends up being like an Edwin or Chapman thing, where Vlad's camp starts off wanting 95% of what Soto got, Jays refuse then Vlad looks elsewhere, time passes, and Vlad ends up signing with another team late for a price the Jays would have paid.

 

Who knows. I've been wrong about a lot lately, like Nimilla, Vlad never returning to 2021 form...

[connorp]

K.....

 

Is that the best you got, douchebag? The question is, is Soto on another planet than 2021 and current Vlad? Yes or no, dbag?

 

I’m not saying you can say this is the real Vlad going forward. That is yet to be determined but I don’t think it’s fair to say Soto is on another planet and leave it at that

[Spanky99]

Is that the best you got, douchebag? The question is, is Soto on another planet than 2021 and current Vlad? Yes or no, dbag?

 

I’m not saying you can say this is the real Vlad going forward. That is yet to be determined but I don’t think it’s fair to say Soto is on another planet and leave it at that

 

lol... I'm going to roll with the guy that's been twice as good.

[connorp]

lol... I'm going to roll with the guy that's been twice as good.

 

The issue is, like many people, you only understand things that move in a linear pattern.

[John_Havok]

The only difference is 70 walks. Per 162 they are really close otherwise. .286 35 103 for Soto, .285 32 100 for Vlad and .282 34 107 for Devers.

 

I think in Arb Vlad could get a crazy amount because it may not be that analytical and his comparison will be Soto after 2023 (.275 35 100)

 

Long term deal? First thing the agents will do is put a comparison package together, illustrating Vlad and Soto are the same (except for 70 walks which they won't mention because who cares about stupid walks).

 

What are 70 walks? Just 70 base clogging events.

 

I'm not even trying to be funny here. Soto has had -20 defensive years, Soto has struggled with ground ball issues at times. Soto and Vlad and Devers are beautiful brothers exactly, exactly, exactly the same...

 

Except Soto gets 135 walks a year and the other two 65.

 

First, 70 walks is 70 bases. That's kind of a big deal. The reason wRC+ exists is to make these things easier to glance at and see who is demonstrably better, even when certain counting stats are similar.

 

Since 2018, Soto's wRC+ is 158. Since Vlad joined the league, Vlad's wRC+ is 136. 22 points of wRC+ is significant.

 

As is the bSr difference of -8.6 for Soto's career vs -13.6 for Vlads. Not a major difference there, but still a difference.

 

Defense... Soto -49.2, Vlad -90. Kind of a big deal.

 

 

I get that these types of mega deals probably don't get too much into the weeds of defense and baserunning, but ... even just at a glance, Soto is clearly a better hitter, runs the bases better, and is worth more defensively. The differences between the two players cannot simply be boiled down to "The only difference is 70 walks."

 

BTW, since 2018, Soto is #2 in all of MLB in wRC+ behind only Judge, whos also better than Soto defensively and in baserunning.

 

Then... there's fWAR. Exact same time frame for WAR, which will slightly penalize Vlad since he has about 120 less games played than Soto and a few others in the leaderboard, Soto still ranks top 5 at 35.8 fWAR. Vlad???? 40th at 15.9. Right behind Vlad? Whit Merrifield at 15.8. Even adding on 120 games worth for Vlad's averages would put him around 25th... or so.

 

So, Soto #2 and #5 in wRC+ and fWAR.

Vlad... #10 and #40.

 

"The only difference is 70 walks."

[John_Havok]

Soto is way better, but I don't know if that difference will be reflected in the contracts they both get. Maybe it will the industry is getting smarter.

 

I guess the danger is that it ends up being like an Edwin or Chapman thing, where Vlad's camp starts off wanting 95% of what Soto got, Jays refuse then Vlad looks elsewhere, time passes, and Vlad ends up signing with another team late for a price the Jays would have paid.

 

Who knows. I've been wrong about a lot lately, like Nimilla, Vlad never returning to 2021 form...

 

Judge got 9/360 - he's the clear #1 in baseball as a hitter. He was going into his age 31 season.

 

Soto, the #2 or #5 depending on how you want to look at it... will be going into his age 26 season as a clear FA.

Vlad, the #10/#40, will be going into his age 26 season with 1 season of control left.

 

Soto is probably looking at a 13 year deal with an AAV somewhere between 40 and 45 million.

 

Vlad ... i don't see it. I think Vlad will max out in the mid 30s for AAV... maybe 33-36. I don't think he gets the 13 years either. I think the differences in their two deals will be significant.

 

And, if either of their agents think it's smart to bring up Ohtani as a comparable... laughable.

[connorp]

Judge got 9/360 - he's the clear #1 in baseball as a hitter. He was going into his age 31 season.

 

Soto, the #2 or #5 depending on how you want to look at it... will be going into his age 26 season as a clear FA.

Vlad, the #10/#40, will be going into his age 26 season with 1 season of control left.

 

Soto is probably looking at a 13 year deal with an AAV somewhere between 40 and 45 million.

 

Vlad ... i don't see it. I think Vlad will max out in the mid 30s for AAV... maybe 33-36. I don't think he gets the 13 years either. I think the differences in their two deals will be significant.

 

And, if either of their agents think it's smart to bring up Ohtani as a comparable... laughable.

 

You’re being disingenuous on Judge. He was the best hitter in baseball only the year before FA. You’re using the power of hindsight to Judge (intended cap) the contract

[Olerud363]

First, 70 walks is 70 bases. That's kind of a big deal. The reason wRC+ exists is to make these things easier to glance at and see who is demonstrably better, even when certain counting stats are similar.

 

Since 2018, Soto's wRC+ is 158. Since Vlad joined the league, Vlad's wRC+ is 136. 22 points of wRC+ is significant.

 

As is the bSr difference of -8.6 for Soto's career vs -13.6 for Vlads. Not a major difference there, but still a difference.

 

Defense... Soto -49.2, Vlad -90. Kind of a big deal.

 

 

I get that these types of mega deals probably don't get too much into the weeds of defense and baserunning, but ... even just at a glance, Soto is clearly a better hitter, runs the bases better, and is worth more defensively. The differences between the two players cannot simply be boiled down to "The only difference is 70 walks."

 

BTW, since 2018, Soto is #2 in all of MLB in wRC+ behind only Judge, whos also better than Soto defensively and in baserunning.

 

Then... there's fWAR. Exact same time frame for WAR, which will slightly penalize Vlad since he has about 120 less games played than Soto and a few others in the leaderboard, Soto still ranks top 5 at 35.8 fWAR. Vlad???? 40th at 15.9. Right behind Vlad? Whit Merrifield at 15.8. Even adding on 120 games worth for Vlad's averages would put him around 25th... or so.

 

So, Soto #2 and #5 in wRC+ and fWAR.

Vlad... #10 and #40.

 

"The only difference is 70 walks."

 

The 70 extra walks a year are the main factor in the fWAR and wRC+ differences.

 

I remember reading somewhere about the 'booklets' agents were making for their free agents. They were really simple and almost Trumpian in their style. I remember way back Bill James writing about arbitrations cases and how moronic they were.

 

Maybe times have changed. However is Vlad's free contract going to be decided by wRC+ and defense metrics? Maybe if Shapiro and Atkins and other smart teams had the final decision.

 

However is there still an owner out there who would be impressed that Vlad (.285 33 100) is the same as Soto (.285 35 100) per 162 games. AND Vlad can play 3rd which will improve his defense numbers. AND the main difference between them is 70 walks, and Vlad will likely walk more as he ages. AND Vlad has more hard hit balls than anyone in basebal?

[John_Havok]

You’re being disingenuous on Judge. He was the best hitter in baseball only the year before FA. You’re using the power of hindsight to Judge (intended cap) the contract

 

You are incorrect. Judge was always near the top of the wRC+ boards. His issue was health, which decreased his overall fWAR. He was always a top end hitter, who just couldn't stay on the field.

[connorp]

You are incorrect. Judge was always near the top of the wRC+ boards. His issue was health, which decreased his overall fWAR. He was always a top end hitter, who just couldn't stay on the field.

 

He was 140-150 wRC+ bat that had a lot of trouble staying on the field. He put it all together in FA year. That was what the contract was based on. Not the current “on a whole other level” guy

[John_Havok]

The 70 extra walks a year are the main factor in the fWAR and wRC+ differences.

 

I remember reading somewhere about the 'booklets' agents were making for their free agents. They were really simple and almost Trumpian in their style. I remember way back Bill James writing about arbitrations cases and how moronic they were.

 

Maybe times have changed. However is Vlad's free contract going to be decided by wRC+ and defense metrics? Maybe if Shapiro and Atkins and other smart teams had the final decision.

 

However is there still an owner out there who would be impressed that Vlad (.285 33 100) is the same as Soto (.285 35 100) per 162 games. AND Vlad can play 3rd which will improve his defense numbers. AND the main difference between them is 70 walks, and Vlad will likely walk more as he ages. AND Vlad has more hard hit balls than anyone in basebal?

 

You're technically correct, but also downplaying the significant impacts of Vlad's bad baserunning and defensive liabilities. I also think you're really down playing the significance of 70 bases per season. That's 17 HRs worth of walks. Sure, 70 walks isn't directly equal to 17 HRs, but it's quite a large difference in the totality of a season when you combine it with the bad D and bad baserunning.

 

You're other question about whether front offices care... of course they do. It's just a matter of how much they care about those other factors limiting the value of the player vs the rest of the team. A team with overall great D and great baserunning wont give 2 shits about Vlad bad D and baserunning as long as he's hitting 40+ HRs per season. Maybe that's a general truth for any player.

 

Here's how I look at the situation. If I'm a GM and I have Soto and Vlad as available, at the same time, in free agency, which guy am I going to prioritize if both positions they play is an area of need?

 

My answer is Soto based on the total package, 10 times out of 10. That's not a slight on Vlad either, it's just the reality that Soto is a much more valuable player on the field than Vlad is when you're looking at total wins.

[John_Havok]

He was 140-150 wRC+ bat that had a lot of trouble staying on the field. He put it all together in FA year. That was what the contract was based on. Not the current “on a whole other level” guy

 

Was is a risk? Sure. Judge hitting 60 bombs, while... surprising on some levels, wasn't all that surprising if he stayed healthy for a full season. The entire league could see that. Dude is walking mountain that could fall out of bed and hit 40 HRs by accident.

[connorp]

Was is a risk? Sure. Judge hitting 60 bombs, while... surprising on some levels, wasn't all that surprising if he stayed healthy for a full season. The entire league could see that. Dude is walking mountain that could fall out of bed and hit 40 HRs by accident.

 

Hindsight Einstein is what believe what the kids are calling it these days. That actually just popped in my head but I’m sure it’s a thing.

[glory]

 

That quote from Vlad certainly doesn't seem like something a player who is willing to take a discount would say, but who knows.

[John_Havok]

 

That quote from Vlad certainly doesn't seem like something a player who is willing to take a discount would say, but who knows.

 

A guy like him has to believe he's the best, even if he demonstrably isn't.

 

He's not taking a discount, never was. The Jays can afford to pay him market value, the trick is getting him to realize his market value isn't higher than Judge, or whatever Soto gets, or even really comparable to them from an AAV standpoint. If he isn't willing to accept that, then they have to part ways. If Vlad thinks he's worth 40 million per season, he has to hit like Judge for more than 2 months.

[G-Snarls]

A guy like him has to believe he's the best, even if he demonstrably isn't.

 

He's not taking a discount, never was. The Jays can afford to pay him market value, the trick is getting him to realize his market value isn't higher than Judge, or whatever Soto gets, or even really comparable to them from an AAV standpoint. If he isn't willing to accept that, then they have to part ways. If Vlad thinks he's worth 40 million per season, he has to hit like Judge for more than 2 months.

 

And needs to suddenly be capable of playing 3B or OF (LOL) at at least an average level

[John_Havok]

And needs to suddenly be capable of playing 3B or OF (LOL) at at least an average level

 

Also true

[AMS528]

I really think last year probably needs to be tossed in terms of Vlad's performance. His xwOBO has in every other season basically matched what he's actually done and it looks like a very clear outlier now. If he hit like his expected numbers indicated he would have probably been at around like a 130-140 wRC+.

 

He's projected to hit around 5.5 fWAR this year (which is amazing given he was tracking for 3-4 two months ago). 6.3, 3.4, 3ish, 5.5 as the last four years would be viewed differently for sure.

 

I think I'm increasingly comfortable with a large extension (especially if it has like an out in his age 31 season).

[Joltin Joe]

No way can do a Bo extension. With his calf problem. After Donaldson and Travis had similar issues.

[BigCecil]

 

That quote from Vlad certainly doesn't seem like something a player who is willing to take a discount would say, but who knows.

 

Yordan Alvarez is only 20 months older than Vlad.

 

Alvarez has a CAREER 166 wRC+ and 23 fWAR. Alvarez signed for 6/115.

 

Vlad's '24 wRC+ is 163 and we all know he was a 1.3 WAR player in 2023. We have pissed away Vlad's two elite seasons.

 

Vlad is not signing for any discounts. Thats for certain and thats why he isn't extended already. He sees himself as one of the top 3 in MLB. He isn't. He is not worth the money and term he wants.

[wilko]

Yordan Alvarez is only 20 months older than Vlad.

 

Alvarez has a CAREER 166 wRC+ and 23 fWAR. Alvarez signed for 6/115.

 

Vlad's '24 wRC+ is 163 and we all know he was a 1.3 WAR player in 2023. We have pissed away Vlad's two elite seasons.

 

Vlad is not signing for any discounts. Thats for certain and thats why he isn't extended already. He sees himself as one of the top 3 in MLB. He isn't. He is not worth the money and term he wants.

 

Alvarez got fleeced and his agent should be fired.

[Olerud363]

You're technically correct, but also downplaying the significant impacts of Vlad's bad baserunning and defensive liabilities. I also think you're really down playing the significance of 70 bases per season. That's 17 HRs worth of walks. Sure, 70 walks isn't directly equal to 17 HRs, but it's quite a large difference in the totality of a season when you combine it with the bad D and bad baserunning.

 

I don't personally think that Vlad is at the level of Soto, I am just thinking about in terms of 'the market' which when you get down to it is what 2 or 3 teams think of Vlad...

 

The 70 walks a year are worth a lot on the baseball field, but how much are the worth in contract negotiations ?

 

Seems to me like Vlad vs Soto is the perfect storm in terms of how a player gets over or under rated.

 

1. Per 162 games they have the same traditional stats (something like .285 32 100)

2. Soto walks 70 times more.

3. Soto isn't a great baserunner or defensive player, but he's better than Vlad and it adds up, but does it add up in contract value?

4. Vlad has a couple of unbelievable 3-4 month runs, and mind blowing minor league stats which may make some team pay a bit more for ceilling.

5. Vlad puts more hard hit balls in play than any player in baseball and is a very slight launch angle tweak from another level (same may be true for Soto actually).

 

So what contract does at that lead to?

[hanton]

I don't get the Alvarez contract, the fa market exploded around the time franco and tatis signed - 2021/2022; Alvarez signed going into 2023

[Olerud363]

Yordan Alvarez is only 20 months older than Vlad.

 

Alvarez has a CAREER 166 wRC+ and 23 fWAR. Alvarez signed for 6/115.

 

Vlad's '24 wRC+ is 163 and we all know he was a 1.3 WAR player in 2023. We have pissed away Vlad's two elite seasons.

 

Vlad is not signing for any discounts. Thats for certain and thats why he isn't extended already. He sees himself as one of the top 3 in MLB. He isn't. He is not worth the money and term he wants.

 

 

I bet he values himself not at 2021/2024 level, but at his best 4 month run within those seasons.

 

And the argument his agents will try for is that the real Vlad is at that level, and batted ball bad luck and temporary (but fixed) mechanical problems knocked his numbers down.

[Brownie19]

Yordan is a f***ing beast. He's probably the most underrated player in baseball.

[Orgfiller]

Yordan Alvarez is only 20 months older than Vlad.

 

Alvarez has a CAREER 166 wRC+ and 23 fWAR. Alvarez signed for 6/115.

 

Vlad's '24 wRC+ is 163 and we all know he was a 1.3 WAR player in 2023. We have pissed away Vlad's two elite seasons.

 

Vlad is not signing for any discounts. Thats for certain and thats why he isn't extended already. He sees himself as one of the top 3 in MLB. He isn't. He is not worth the money and term he wants.

 

Alvarez got fleeced and his agent should be fired.

 

I don't get the Alvarez contract, the fa market exploded around the time franco and tatis signed - 2021/2022; Alvarez signed going into 2023

 

First thing: a 20 month difference is massive lmao. If Vlad repeats 2024 for two more seasons, he'll have eclipsed Yordan's career WAR at the same age.

 

Yordan Alvarez's contract was a pre-arb extension. He's also also a gigantic human who's already had major surgery on both knees previously. The Astros bought out 3 arb years, plus a 3 year FA deal from ages 29-31. Could he have made more money betting on his health and entering free agency following his age 28 season (next year)? Sure, but he also could have more leg injuries in the 3 seasons before that happened and his performance could have taken a hit, then you're hoping that teams bank on the health of a 6'5 behemoth that can only DH who has chronic knee issues. His extension wasn't a wtf, there was obvious risk on both sides, I'm sure both sides are happy with the guarantees they're getting out of it.

[jaysblue]

Yordan is a f***ing beast. He's probably the most underrated player in baseball.

 

Him and Kyle Tucker.

[204Jays]

Eat a f***ing salad, Bo. Yikes lol.