Vladdy/Bo Extension or Trade Discussion

[hanton]

Any changes are adjusted to all tables going back. So if there was an error or adjustment it is just a keystroke away from correction.

 

as long as they have the raw data

[Spanky99]

Any changes are adjusted to all tables going back. So if there was an error or adjustment it is just a keystroke away from correction.

 

That's what I thought, any changes get baked in there calculations.

[connorp]

He said a lot of people in the industry pushed back on that and called him a moron.

 

We need to get more of those guys here.

[connorp]

Anyone who thinks Vlad isn’t getting at least $300m if he’s putting up 2021 numbers is going to be disappointed.

 

It’s a big jump from the closely related Hosmer deal, but we’ll have to wait and see.

[hanton]

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Gotcha thanks. So OAA added, makes sense.

 

correct and retroactive to 2016, the start of statcast

[jaysblue]

If they can lock up Vladdy and if they can land Soto, what a dynamic duo that would be for the next decade.

 

If they were willing to go all-in on Ohtani last offseason, you gotta think they would definitely entertain the idea of locking up both Vladdy & Soto, which total would likely be cheaper than the 10 year/$700M Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.

[Laika]

If they can lock up Vladdy and if they can land Soto, what a dynamic duo that would be for the next decade.

 

If they were willing to go all-in on Ohtani last offseason, you gotta think they would definitely entertain the idea of locking up both Vladdy & Soto, which total would likely be cheaper than the 10 year/$700M Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.

 

Only cheaper in absolute dollars

 

Much more to expensive in present value dollars and in AAV (payroll)

[jaysblue]

Only cheaper in absolute dollars

 

Much more to expensive in present value dollars and in AAV (payroll)

 

Would they be able to fit both into the payroll next season and seasons afterwards without going over the luxury tax? Or if they did sign both to long term deals, would they even care about going over the luxury tax during the first couple of seasons with them both in their prime years?

[Barrelsandbombs]

Only cheaper in absolute dollars

 

Much more to expensive in present value dollars and in AAV (payroll)

 

What if Soto gets big deferrals too?

[John_Havok]

Would they be able to fit both into the payroll next season and seasons afterwards without going over the luxury tax? Or if they did sign both to long term deals, would they even care about going over the luxury tax during the first couple of seasons with them both in their prime years?

 

Good questions, because with Romano (TBD, lets say 10M just guessing?- 2025) , Swanson (4m? - 2025) Bo (11.2m 2025) Bassit (21m 2025), Gausman(23m - 2026), Green (10.5m - 2026) and Springer(25m - 2026) coming off the books, that's 105 million coming off by the end of 2026, 46m alone heading into 2026. Yes, there will be some guys in there needing arb raises in there, but as of now, nobody really prohibitive. Maybe Manoah if he rights the ship between now and then as he's Arb 2 and 3 for 2026 and 2027. Varsho, not exactly looking overly expensive at the moment. Ditto Kirk.

 

 

Here's how it looks for 2025 as it stands now:

 

 

 

2025 Arb needs:

 

Arb 1 - Pop, Clement, Manoah (all should be cheap, Manoah will get a bit more for his big 2022)

Arb 2 - Kirk (gonna guess 4m)

Arb 3 - Romano (im guessing 10M), Cabrera (2.5), Varsho (7-8 maybe? -arb 4 in 2026),

Arb 4 - Vlad (lets just say 30)

 

THe rest are all league minimum pre-arb.

 

With the roughly 105m in tax space... the above eats up around 55-60. Add in at least 40 for Soto (hypothetically) and there's still the need for at least 1 starter, some pen arms, and a 3B.

 

I think if the Jays are going after Soto, and i believe they should, they're very much going to be a tax team for 2025 without some pretty shrewd trades.

Edited August 10, 2024 by John_Havok

[saskjayfan]

Vlad now sits 5th in the qualified wRC+ leaderboard. Bobby Whit Jr is the next guy to overtake. It's been remarkable to watch. 6 weeks ago he wasn't top 30 in the league.

[max silver]

Good questions, because with Romano (TBD, lets say 10M just guessing?- 2025) , Swanson (4m? - 2025) Bo (11.2m 2025) Bassit (21m 2025), Gausman(23m - 2026), Green (10.5m - 2026) and Springer(25m - 2026) coming off the books, that's 105 million coming off by the end of 2026, 46m alone heading into 2026. Yes, there will be some guys in there needing arb raises in there, but as of now, nobody really prohibitive. Maybe Manoah if he rights the ship between now and then as he's Arb 2 and 3 for 2026 and 2027. Varsho, not exactly looking overly expensive at the moment. Ditto Kirk.

 

 

Here's how it looks for 2025 as it stands now:

 

 

 

2025 Arb needs:

 

Arb 1 - Pop, Clement, Manoah (all should be cheap, Manoah will get a bit more for his big 2022)

Arb 2 - Kirk (gonna guess 4m)

Arb 3 - Romano (im guessing 10M), Cabrera (2.5), Varsho (7-8 maybe? -arb 4 in 2026),

Arb 4 - Vlad (lets just say 30)

 

THe rest are all league minimum pre-arb.

 

With the roughly 105m in tax space... the above eats up around 55-60. Add in at least 40 for Soto (hypothetically) and there's still the need for at least 1 starter, some pen arms, and a 3B.

 

I think if the Jays are going after Soto, and i believe they should, they're very much going to be a tax team for 2025 without some pretty shrewd trades.

 

It's very hard to see the team being able to sign Soto and run anything other than a scrubs and stars sort of lineup without going well over the luxury tax limit.

[John_Havok]

It's very hard to see the team being able to sign Soto and run anything other than a scrubs and stars sort of lineup without going well over the luxury tax limit.

 

Unless deferrals take centre stage on both Vlad and Soto's hypothetical deals. Maybe they can talk them into that using the very obvious need to do so in order to keep them surrounded with talent.

 

I know lots of people are talking about the Yankees re-signing him but ... with their payroll now and heading into the 4th straight year of penalties... the taxes alone on signing Soto would be immense. But then again... deferrals are an option for them too.

[Olerud363]

What if Soto gets big deferrals too?

 

If he is getting deferrals you have to give him more. Like if Soto is worth 12 400, that would be 12 700 with deferrals... like I think you can't really game the system by giving Soto 12 400 with deferrals as that contract is not one the union, the agent or the player would want.

 

As a side note I still am curious if Dodgers could theoretically get in trouble with the Ohtani contract if interest rates go down. Like at 5/% maybe his 10 700 is 10 450 in present day value (or close).

 

Now if there is a financial crisis and interest rates go way down, and all of a sudden the contract is worth 600 million in current day values? Does that mean they have to now apply 60 million to their payroll and put 60 million a way for future payment?

 

Is the calculation done year to year? I didn't think so because I thought the team has to put the current years contract into a fund for future payment... which means if interest rates change the current value changes.

[max silver]

Unless deferrals take centre stage on both Vlad and Soto's hypothetical deals. Maybe they can talk them into that using the very obvious need to do so in order to keep them surrounded with talent.

 

I know lots of people are talking about the Yankees re-signing him but ... with their payroll now and heading into the 4th straight year of penalties... the taxes alone on signing Soto would be immense. But then again... deferrals are an option for them too.

 

I have a really hard time envisioning the Yankees not being willing to pay whatever it takes to keep Soto long term. He's performed up to his full capability under the bright lights of New York and instantly transformed that team into a contender.

[John_Havok]

I have a really hard time envisioning the Yankees not being willing to pay whatever it takes to keep Soto long term. He's performed up to his full capability under the bright lights of New York and instantly transformed that team into a contender.

 

For sure.

 

Even if we assume he gets 40m, same as judge, that's 2 40 million dudes, a 36m Cole, a 32m Stanton and a 27m Rodon right behind. 175m per season for just 5 players with none of them being FAs until 2029 when Rodon, Cole and Stanton are up. That's kinda nutty to think about, but yeah, could very well happen.

 

I dont think Soto will only end up with 40 though, i'm betting it goes higher.

[max silver]

For sure.

 

Even if we assume he gets 40m, same as judge, that's 2 40 million dudes, a 36m Cole, a 32m Stanton and a 27m Rodon right behind. 175m per season for just 5 players with none of them being FAs until 2029 when Rodon, Cole and Stanton are up. That's kinda nutty to think about, but yeah, could very well happen.

 

I dont think Soto will only end up with 40 though, i'm betting it goes higher.

 

Soto certainly picked a good time to experience a breakout season. He produced at similar levels in the shortened 2020 season but never showed this type of prolonged production in any previous seasons.

[John_Havok]

Soto certainly picked a good time to experience a breakout season. He produced at similar levels in the shortened 2020 season but never showed this type of prolonged production in any previous seasons.

 

Even the walk rate... less than 1% below career average with the most feared power hitter in the game hitting right behind him. You'd think pitchers would rather take their chances with Soto... doesn't seem that way.

[max silver]

Even the walk rate... less than 1% below career average with the most feared power hitter in the game hitting right behind him. You'd think pitchers would rather take their chances with Soto... doesn't seem that way.

 

That's a true pick your poison scenario. Do you face the .472 xwOBA dude or the .477 xwOBA guy hitting behind him? I'm really surprised Judge hasn't been intentionally walked more than he has up to this point given how relatively weak the rest of the lineup is by comparison.

[jaysblue]

Good questions, because with Romano (TBD, lets say 10M just guessing?- 2025) , Swanson (4m? - 2025) Bo (11.2m 2025) Bassit (21m 2025), Gausman(23m - 2026), Green (10.5m - 2026) and Springer(25m - 2026) coming off the books, that's 105 million coming off by the end of 2026, 46m alone heading into 2026. Yes, there will be some guys in there needing arb raises in there, but as of now, nobody really prohibitive. Maybe Manoah if he rights the ship between now and then as he's Arb 2 and 3 for 2026 and 2027. Varsho, not exactly looking overly expensive at the moment. Ditto Kirk.

 

 

Here's how it looks for 2025 as it stands now:

 

 

 

2025 Arb needs:

 

Arb 1 - Pop, Clement, Manoah (all should be cheap, Manoah will get a bit more for his big 2022)

Arb 2 - Kirk (gonna guess 4m)

Arb 3 - Romano (im guessing 10M), Cabrera (2.5), Varsho (7-8 maybe? -arb 4 in 2026),

Arb 4 - Vlad (lets just say 30)

 

THe rest are all league minimum pre-arb.

 

With the roughly 105m in tax space... the above eats up around 55-60. Add in at least 40 for Soto (hypothetically) and there's still the need for at least 1 starter, some pen arms, and a 3B.

 

I think if the Jays are going after Soto, and i believe they should, they're very much going to be a tax team for 2025 without some pretty shrewd trades.

 

Might even be the odd guy who is a non-tender candidate (e.g. Swanson or Romano if the Jays feel they're broken and can't make a full return to their previous levels).

 

Though yeah good point, if they lock up both Soto and Vladdy, they most likely have to be a tax team for 2025 given the other areas that need to be addressed on the roster. Once some salaries come off the books afterwards, they should be okay moving forward.

[glory]

For sure.

 

Even if we assume he gets 40m, same as judge, that's 2 40 million dudes, a 36m Cole, a 32m Stanton and a 27m Rodon right behind. 175m per season for just 5 players with none of them being FAs until 2029 when Rodon, Cole and Stanton are up. That's kinda nutty to think about, but yeah, could very well happen.

 

I dont think Soto will only end up with 40 though, i'm betting it goes higher.

 

I’d be surprised if the AAV for Soto isn’t $50M. He’s a 25 year old free agent with a HOF track record already. He’s not taking less AAV than Scherzer, Verlander, etc, and with deferrals factored in Ohtani’s AAV is in the high 40’s I believe so he will try (and succeed) at clearing that given his age. Factor in Steve Cohen in the bidding and it’s going to be monster contract.

 

I’d have no issues with the Jays signing and extending Soto and Vlad. If you’re going for stars and scrubs, then those two (assuming Vlad is fixed moving forward) are the guys to do it with. Hell the Jays actually have possible league average-ish position player depth in AAA/MLB. Between Horwitz, Jimenez, DS, Barger, Clase, Orelvis, Roden, Wagner, Loperfido, etc, you could probably find some combination that could work around Soto and Vlad. It’s just a question of whether Rogers is willing to do something like 12/600 for Soto and 11/350 for Vlad (just spitballing). That’s kinda a lot of money. I’d have no problem doing that and then having to move other pieces to save money, but it’s hard enough envisioning that type of investment from any ownership (Rogers or otherwise), much less convincing Soto to choose a last place team over both NY teams and likely the Dodgers too.

[John_Havok]

I’d be surprised if the AAV for Soto isn’t $50M. He’s a 25 year old free agent with a HOF track record already. He’s not taking less AAV than Scherzer, Verlander, etc, and with deferrals factored in Ohtani’s AAV is in the high 40’s I believe so he will try (and succeed) at clearing that given his age. Factor in Steve Cohen in the bidding and it’s going to be monster contract.

 

I’d have no issues with the Jays signing and extending Soto and Vlad. If you’re going for stars and scrubs, then those two (assuming Vlad is fixed moving forward) are the guys to do it with. Hell the Jays actually have possible league average-ish position player depth in AAA/MLB. Between Horwitz, Jimenez, DS, Barger, Clase, Orelvis, Roden, Wagner, Loperfido, etc, you could probably find some combination that could work around Soto and Vlad. It’s just a question of whether Rogers is willing to do something like 12/600 for Soto and 11/350 for Vlad (just spitballing). That’s kinda a lot of money. I’d have no problem doing that and then having to move other pieces to save money, but it’s hard enough envisioning that type of investment from any ownership (Rogers or otherwise), much less convincing Soto to choose a last place team over both NY teams and likely the Dodgers too.

 

If the Dodgers get Soto, there's no real point in playing anymore.

 

Top 4 of the lineup would be all future HOF hitters.

[Omar]

If the Dodgers get Soto, there's no real point in playing anymore.

 

Top 4 of the lineup would be all future HOF hitters.

 

Don't fret, Dave Roberts will find a way to lose.

[Joltin Joe]

What teams would have most interest in Vlad?

[G-Snarls]

What teams would have most interest in Vlad?

 

Interesting chart to figure that out:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders-legacy.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-01-01&enddate=2024-12-31&sort=11,a

 

Looking for teams who think they can contend, would actually spend the $ (he'll make >30M in arbitration next year) and don't already have someone expensive or good at 1B...

[hanton]

What teams would have most interest in Vlad?

 

that's a good question, off the top of my head and in no particular order, BOS/LAD(3B?)/SEA(Vlady and JRod)/MIL(will they spend?)/SF(will Zaidi spend?)/NYY(lol). Others would be the Mets (Alonso replacement) and the Braves although I doubt they have the money but maybe AA can make it work

[AMS528]

If I have to watch Vladdy hit a trillion home runs against us as a Red Sox in his favorite hitting park just kill me now.

[connorp]

I’d be surprised if the AAV for Soto isn’t $50M. He’s a 25 year old free agent with a HOF track record already. He’s not taking less AAV than Scherzer, Verlander, etc, and with deferrals factored in Ohtani’s AAV is in the high 40’s I believe so he will try (and succeed) at clearing that given his age. Factor in Steve Cohen in the bidding and it’s going to be monster contract.

 

I’d have no issues with the Jays signing and extending Soto and Vlad. If you’re going for stars and scrubs, then those two (assuming Vlad is fixed moving forward) are the guys to do it with. Hell the Jays actually have possible league average-ish position player depth in AAA/MLB. Between Horwitz, Jimenez, DS, Barger, Clase, Orelvis, Roden, Wagner, Loperfido, etc, you could probably find some combination that could work around Soto and Vlad. It’s just a question of whether Rogers is willing to do something like 12/600 for Soto and 11/350 for Vlad (just spitballing). That’s kinda a lot of money. I’d have no problem doing that and then having to move other pieces to save money, but it’s hard enough envisioning that type of investment from any ownership (Rogers or otherwise), much less convincing Soto to choose a last place team over both NY teams and likely the Dodgers too.

 

I’ll guess Soto is 16/600

[Terminator]

Ohtani got 10 for 460. Soto could get more years but I doubt he gets anymore AAV than that.

 

I bet the Jays are finalists for him but I don't think there is anyway we end up with him.

[Joltin Joe]

that's a good question, off the top of my head and in no particular order, BOS/LAD(3B?)/SEA(Vlady and JRod)/MIL(will they spend?)/SF(will Zaidi spend?)/NYY(lol). Others would be the Mets (Alonso replacement) and the Braves although I doubt they have the money but maybe AA can make it work

I don't think I would want to see him in same division. Could we get a package like Kirby, Arozarena and prospect Ford from Mariners? Or is that too much?

 

Kirby be good at front of our rotation. Arozarena depth in outfield and Ford be among our best prospects.

 

Take Vlad's 30 million and sign power hitting 1b with around .900 OPS

Edited August 13, 2024 by Joltin Joe